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August 2020 August 2020 November 2020 AUGUST 2020 AUGUST 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT NOVEMBER 2020 Contents LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... 4 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Inflation (Source: NSO) ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Government Securities (Source: RBM) ............................................................................................................................. 6 Foreign Currency Market (Source: RBM) ......................................................................................................................... 6 Interbank Markets and Interest Rates (Source: RBM)...................................................................................................... 6 Stock Market (Source: MSE) ............................................................................................................................................. 7 OTHER MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................................................................................... 9 Tobacco Markets Update (Source: TCC & JTILM) ............................................................................................................. 9 Humanitarian Assistance Expected to Improve Outcomes to Stressed Levels (Source: FEWS NET) ................................ 9 Monthly Maize Market Update (Source: IFPRI) ................................................................................................................ 9 Tea Production and Sales Update (Source: RBM) ............................................................................................................ 9 Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) Faces Challenges in Distribution and Supply (Source: Malawi Nation Newspaper) .. 10 Commodity and Market Prospects for 2020/2021 Growing Season (Source: MITC) ..................................................... 10 Prospects for 2020/2021 Rainfall Season in Malawi (Source: Ministry of Forestry and Natural Resources) ................. 11 REGIONAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................................ 12 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 15 CURRENCY MOVEMENTS................................................................................................................................... 16 OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2020 AND BEYOND – MALAWI ............................................................................ 18 ECONOMIC RISKS ............................................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix 1: Selected economic indicators for Malawi (RBM, MSE, MERA, NSO).......................................................... 25 Appendix 2: Selected economic indicators for Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Mozambique ....................................... 25 Appendix 3: Budget Framework (Source: Ministry of Finance) ...................................................................................... 26 Appendix 4: Central Government Budgetary Operations in billions of Kwacha (Source: RBM) .................................... 27 Appendix 5: Malawi selected Economic indicators (Source: RBM) ................................................................................ 28 Appendix 6: GDP—Malawi (Source: EIU) ....................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix 7: Contribution to GDP by sector (Source: NSO,RBM) ................................................................................... 30 Appendix 8: Malawi Economic growth Projections (Source: EIU) .................................................................................. 30 Appendix 9: Global Projections (Source: IMF) ................................................................................................................ 31 Appendix 10: Seasonal calendar for a typical year (Source: Fews NET) ......................................................................... 32 2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT NOVEMBER 2020 LIST OF ACRONYMS ADF: African Development Fund MVAC: Mobile Vulnerability Assessment AfDB: African Development Bank Committee BOE: Bank of England MW: Mega Watts BHL: Blantyre Hotels Plc NBM: National Bank of Malawi Plc BWB: Blantyre Water Board NBS: NBS Bank Plc CPI: Consumer Price Index NGOs: Non-Governmental Organisations DSI: Domestic Share Index NICO: NICO Holdings Plc ECB: European Central Bank NITL: National Investment Trust Plc ECF: Extended Credit Facility NSO: National Statistical Office EIU: Economist Intelligence Unit OECD: Organisation for Economic Co- ESCOM: Electricity Supply Corporation of operation and Development Malawi OMO: Open Market Operations EU: European Union OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum EUR: Euro Exporting Countries FEWS NET: Famine Early Warning Systems PCL: Press Corporation Plc Network RBM: Reserve Bank of Malawi FAO-GIEWS: Food and Agricultural Organization RBZ: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Global Information and Early Warning Rmb: Chinese Renminbi System RTGS: Real Time Gross Settlement FISP: Farm Input Subsidy Program SARB: South Africa Reserve Bank FMBCH: FMB Capital Holdings Plc SDF: Southern Dark Fired Tobacco FOB: Free On Board SSA: Sub Sahara Africa FSI: Foreign Share Index Sunbird: Sunbird Tourism Plc GBP: British Pound TB: Treasury Bills GDP: Gross Domestic Product TCC: Tobacco Commission GFS: Government Finance Statistics TICAD: Tokyo International Conference on IDA: International Development African Development Association TNM: Telekom Networks Malawi Plc IFAD: International Fund for Agricultural WEO: World Economic Outlook Development WFP: World Food Programme IFPRI: International Food Policy Research WTO: World Trade Organisation Institute TSH: Tanzania Shillings IMF: International Monetary Fund UBOS: Ugandan Bureau of Statistics MASI: Malawi All Share Index UGX: Ugandan Shillings MASL: Meters Above Sea Level UK: United Kingdom MB/D: Million barrels per day UNOCHA: United Nations Office for the MERA: Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs MITC: Malawi Investment and Trade Center USA: United States of America MK: Malawi Kwacha US$: United States Dollar MPC: Monetary Policy Committee ZAR: South African Rand MSE: Malawi Stock Exchange ZimVAC: Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment MT: Metric Tonnes Committee MRA: Malawi Revenue Authority ZMK: Zambian Kwacha 3 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT NOVEMBER 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic Outlook — Malawi The Malawi Kwacha depreciated against the United pandemic has significantly impacted different sectors States Dollar in November 2020. The downward including tourism and accommodation; wholesale trend is mainly attributed to a decline in foreign and retail trade; health services and manufacturing exchange supply which has in turn put pressure on activities (Source: Reserve Bank of Malawi). the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Malawi has faced reduced trading activity due to the COVID-19 The 2020/2021 fiscal year budget has projected an pandemic resulting in a widened trade deficit of overall deficit of K530.1 billion, representing 7.45% of MK1.13 trillion. The spill over effects of the COVID- Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the face of the 19 pandemic have led to lower than expected export devasting economic impact of the COVID-19 earnings amidst the growing demand for COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and related imports and seasonal agriculture materials. the World Bank urged bilateral creditors to suspend The negative balance of payment caused by such debt repayment by the world’s poorest countries, developments has led the Reserve Bank of Malawi to including Malawi. However, the Ministry of Finance intervene in the foreign exchange market, as long as has shelved the plan to request for debt suspension, sufficient reserves are available, and support on the basis that the economy could pay dearly if debt commercial banks until things improve. repayment was suspended than servicing it despite economic hiccups. In line with the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund revised downwards Malawi’s Malawi’s economic outlook faces considerable economic growth for the years 2020 and 2021 to downside risks: the impact of the COVID-19 0.6% and 2.2.% respectively. pandemic, weather shocks and fiscal slippages. However, due to significant reduction in COVID-19 The Malawi Government also revised downwards its cases in recent months, most restrictions have been 2020 economic growth projections from 1.90% to lifted and this has led to a pickup in economic activity. 1.20%, reflecting adverse impact of the coronavirus There is a general increase in income-earning pandemic. The pandemic
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