The Cryosphere, 11, 1813–1834, 2017 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1813-2017 © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century Florence Magnin1, Jean-Yves Josnin1, Ludovic Ravanel1, Julien Pergaud2, Benjamin Pohl2, and Philip Deline1 1EDYTEM Lab, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, 73376 Le Bourget du Lac, France 2Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Biogéosciences, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, CNRS, Dijon, France Correspondence to: Florence Magnin (fl
[email protected]) Received: 31 May 2016 – Discussion started: 7 July 2016 Revised: 19 May 2017 – Accepted: 20 June 2017 – Published: 4 August 2017 Abstract. High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sen- are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by sitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects. on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investi- 1 Introduction gates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has drawn a above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice global increase in permafrost temperature