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A Wave of Caution Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey A wave of caution Central Europe Private Equity confidence survey Private Equity, October 2011 In all the issues of the index, I do not believe that we have ever seen such an abrupt and decisive change of sentiment as between April and October this year. This publication contains general information only. The publication has been prepared on the basis of information and forecasts in the public domain. None of the information on which the publication is based has been independently verified by Deloitte and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, any of its member firms or any of the foregoing’s affiliates (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) take any responsibility for the content thereof. No entity in the Deloitte Network nor any of their affiliates nor their respective members, directors, employees and agents accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness, or in relation to the use by any recipient, of the information, projections or opinions contained in the publication and no entity in Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies thereon. 2 Introduction Welcome to the October 2011 edition of the Deloitte Despite the inevitable impact that such a scenario is Central Europe Private Equity Confidence Survey. We having on confidence and appetite for risk, have now issued this key Deloitte publication twice the resilience of the PE sector’s mindset in the face of a year since its launch in 2003, meaning that today we adversity is impressive. A clear majority of our have a uniquely precise map of the changing levels of respondents, for example, declare that they intend to confidence among PE professionals through all spend the next six months focusing primarily on new the changing circumstances of the last eight years. investments, a finding that is endorsed by the 76% of answers who are expecting to buy more than they sell In all the issues of the index, however, I do not believe between now and next spring. that we have ever seen such an abrupt and decisive change of sentiment as between April this year and PE professionals are once again adapting their activities October. Even the slump from the highest point of to the fast-changing environment in which they are the index (recorded in April 2007) to its lowest (in working. For many, this means investing now to take October 2008) took a series of steps. The fall from advantage of attractive valuations that can be grown a post-crisis high last April to its second lowest score and realised in a healthier future economic ever took place in a single tumble, suggesting that environment. For others it means selling to a strategic memories of the events of 2008 are still fresh in many corporate investor with deep pockets, which is shown minds and any recovery we have witnessed over in our ‘deals’ section starting on page 11 of this report. the last two years has been extremely fragile. Either way, practitioners have the flexibility and confidence to respond to positive opportunities as they During the last six months, many economic indicators emerge, even in these market conditions. across Central Europe (CE) have been thrown into reverse, with strong growth in GDP in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia slowing significantly. Add to this Germany’s increasing solitude as the only remaining pillar of strength in the Eurozone, slow growth in the US, deceleration in China, emerging need for new equity in banking in Western Europe and Garret Byrne the tangible prospect of double-dip recession in many Partner countries, and once again we may be witnessing M&A Transaction Service Leader a ‘perfect economic storm’ of a kind not seen since Central Europe 2008. October 2011 Overview Key findings Central Europe PE Confidence Index • A clear majority (66%) of respondents anticipate 180 a decline in the overall economic environment, 156 159 160 154 155 153 a significant rise from the 10% who foresaw decline 148 six months ago 153 140 140 149 • The availability of debt is set to decrease, 139 138 120 respondents believe, reflecting concerns over 118 102 117 the conditions of financial institutions and state 100 finance in the Eurozone 100 80 • The sudden and severe drop in confidence levels has 78 70 reached the second lowest ebb in the history of the 60 survey following the post-crisis high of April this year 40 48 • Looking for new investment opportunities will be the primary focus for private equity practitioners 20 over the next six months. PE funds are expected to 0 buy more than sell, as a result of likely depressed . 2003 . 2004 . 2005 . 2006 . 2007 . 2008 . 2009 . 2010 . 2011 prices during the period Mar Sep. 2003Mar Sep. 2004Mar Sep. 2005Mar Oct. 2006Apr Oct. 2007Apr Oct. 2008Apr Oct. 2009Apr Oct. 2010Apr Oct. 2011 • A majority of respondents expect that the average size of transactions will remain unchanged during the next six months • Most believe that the efficiency of their financial investments will remain unchanged, although this is possibly because expectations of growth and returns remain low Central European Private Equity Index The index has fallen from a post-crisis high of 153 last The fund raising environment has been quiet with funds April to 70, the largest ever one-off decline to its only being raised by Credo Ventures, who currently has second-lowest rating in its eight-year history. €17.5 million under management and is targeting €20 million for the final closure of the fund. The fund Almost all the positive gains in confidence achieved raising environment is a challenge at present given since the historic low point of October 2008 have been recent stock market falls and the consequent challenges swept away, chiefly by worries about the emerging that face LP’s on allocation of funds. potential of a double dip recession and concerns in the Eurozone. Another major change, which indicates a sudden decline in practitioners’ appetite for risk, sees a signifi- In a major turnaround from the findings of the last cant rise (to 71%) in the proportion of respondents index, two thirds of respondents expect economic expecting the greatest competition for new investment conditions to worsen over the next six months while opportunities to be in market leaders. In a finding that is nearly the same proportion anticipates a decrease in related in terms of low risk-appetite, no respondents the availability of debt finance. And in a major reversal regard IPO as the preferred exit route option. of sentiment, 50% now expect overall market activity to decrease while 45% anticipate no change, contrasting starkly with the 67% who were expecting an increase just a year ago. 4 Survey results Survey results Economic climate For this period, I expect the overall economic climate to: 4% 4% 4% 100 10% 7% 9% 10% 13% 18% 31% 28% 26% 27% 36% 44% 75 37% 53% 51% 57% 74% 61% 62% 47% 66% 93% 50 74% 64% 69% 70% 69% 67% 64% 53% 56% 43% 25 47% 39% 26% 32% 29% 43% 34% 18% 5% 13% 7% 6% 0 Mar. 2003Sep. 2003Mar. 2004 Sep. 2004Mar. 2005Sep. 2005Mar. 2006Oct. 2006Apr. 2007Oct. 2007 Apr. 2008Oct. 2008 Apr. 2009Oct. 2009Apr. 2010 Oct. 2010Apr. 2011Oct. 2011 Decline Remain the same Improve For the first time since October 2008, no respondents a return to recession, reduced corporate investment and expected the overall economic climate to improve over consumer spending in the Czech Republic, economic the next six months, while the 66% expecting decline is vulnerability in Slovakia and slowing growth in Poland. the largest proportion since that time. This reflects With a third of respondents still expecting the outlook the experience of the last six months, with crisis in to remain unchanged however, negative sentiment is the Eurozone threatening export opportunities for still far from as strong as it was three years ago, when the CE region, Hungary teetering on the brink of just 7% expected anything other than further decline. Debt availability For this period, I expect the availability of debt finance to: 4% 5% 100 11% 7% 19% 40% 39% 48% 75 50% 46% 52% 42% 62% 61% 67% 67% 61% 57% 64% 78% 84% 75% 50 67% 36% 60% 61% 52% 25 47% 46% 48% 38% 38% 37% 33% 33% 39% 36% 22% 16% 18% 14% 18% 3% 0 Mar. 2003Sep. 2003Mar. 2004 Sep. 2004Mar. 2005Sep. 2005Mar. 2006Oct. 2006Apr. 2007Oct. 2007 Apr. 2008Oct. 2008 Apr. 2009Oct. 2009Apr. 2010 Oct. 2010Apr. 2011Oct. 2011 Decrease Remain the same Increase With more than 60% of respondents expecting This reflects a natural concern over the future availability the availability of debt finance to decrease over the next of debt finance arising from problems affecting six months, the proportion expecting no change or European financial institutions. Uncertainty about how an increase, stands at its lowest level since October the EU is going to solve the debt crisis is also 2008. undermining the confidence of the region’s investors. 6 Investors’ focus For this period, I expect to spend the majority of my time focusing on: 100 30% 42% 75 50% 49% 62% 69% 68% 74% 64% 58% 74% 80% 77% 79% 77% 77% 88% 86% 50 53% 31% 55% 14% 48% 25 24% 24% 6% 29% 13% 39% 22% 16% 14% 17% 12% 24% 17% 19% 17% 7% 4% 12% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 7% 8% 7% 9% 13% 12% 6% 0 Mar. 2003Sep. 2003Mar. 2004 Sep. 2004Mar. 2005Sep. 2005Mar. 2006Oct. 2006Apr. 2007Oct. 2007 Apr. 2008Oct. 2008 Apr. 2009Oct. 2009Apr. 2010 Oct. 2010Apr. 2011Oct. 2011 New investments Portfolio management Raising new funds Despite continued uncertainty regarding the wider the deals section of this report (see page 11), including economic environment and the availability of credit, Resource Partners’ €60 million-acquisition of cosmetics the PE community remains relatively bullish regarding its retail operator Polbita.
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