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Romanian Financial Highlights EN December NEWS Romanian Financial Highlights – December 2012 Currency quotations Foreign exchange rates BNR base interest December 31, 2012 Quotation Date RON/EUR RON/USD Date Inflation rate % rate EUR/USD 1,32 21.dec 4,4451 3,3636 oct.12 0,29 Oct 5.25% USD/JPY 0,86 24.dec 4,4231 3,3468 nov.12 0,04 Nov 5.25% GBP/USD 1,62 27.dec 4,4296 3,3384 dec.12 0,60 Dec 5.25% USD/CHF 0,92 28.dec 4,4291 3,3619 2011 5,79 EUR/CHF 1,21 31.dec 4,4287 3,3575 2012 4,95 Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics RON/USD Evolution of National Currency (2010-2012) Evolution of national Currency (last month) - RON/EUR Evolution of national Currency (last month) - RON/USD RON/EUR 4,7 4,6800 3,5500 4,6400 4,2 3,4800 4,6000 4,5600 3,4100 3,7 4,5200 3,3400 4,4800 3,2 3,2700 4,4400 4,4000 3,2000 2,7 c c c c c c c 1 2 2 ec ec ec ec ec ec e e ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec -10 11 -11 -11 -1 -11 12 -12 12 -12 -12 -1 12 D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D b-11 r- n ct b-12 n g-1 p ct v- -De -D -De - -De ec Jan-11 e pr Ju Jul-11 Jan- e pr ay- Ju Jul-12 u e 1-Dec 3- 5-Dec 7-Dec 9-Dec 9-De 1- 3 5- 7- 9-Dec 9-De D F Ma A May-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 O Nov Dec-11 F Mar-12 A M A S O No Dec-12 11- 13- 15 17- 1 21 23-Dec 25 27-Dec 29- 31-Dec 11-Dec 13-Dec 15- 17-Dec 19- 21- 23- 25- 27- 2 31 Deposits interest Futures quotations BMFMS 1) Futures quotations BMFMS Maturity Interest Interest Contract Maturity Amount Contract Maturity Amount ROBID ROBOR RON RON 1 month 5,54% 6,04% EUR/RON mar.13 4,5050 DESNP mar.13 0,4315 3 months 5,55% 6,05% EUR/RON iun.13 4,5500 DETLV mar.13 0,8715 6 months 5,53% 6,27% EUR/RON sep.13 4,5950 DEEBS mar.13 84,0000 9 months 5,53% 6,28% EUR/USD mar.13 1,3226 DESIF2 mar.13 1,3650 12 months 5,55% 6,30% EUR/USD iun.13 1,2800 DESIF5 mar.13 1,4400 1)Sibiu Monetary Financial and Commodities Exchange Source: National Bank of Romania, Sibiu Monetary Financial and Commodities Exchange Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) - December 31, 2012 Index Amount Change Company Closing price Average price Volume Amount transacted Change mo-to-mo mo-to-mo symbol by closing price RON (%) RON RON shares RON (%) BSE Capitalisation 97.720,86 mil. RON BRD 8,1100 8,0973 149.620 1.211.528 11,10% BET 1) 5.149,56 7,49% FP 0,5495 0,5489 5.412.420 2.971.086 2,33% BET-C 2) 2.786,11 6,82% SNP 0,4281 0,4304 4.538.893 1.953.829 8,20% BET-FI 3) 25.375,38 5,13% SIF2 1,4500 1,4482 214.112 310.079 3,57% 1) Bucharest Exchange Trading 2) Bucharest Exchange Trading - Composite Index 3) Bucharest Exchange Trading - Investment Funds Source: Bucharest Stock Exchange BET-FI (RON) BET (RON) BET-C (RON) Evolution of stock indexes (2010-2012) 35.000 5.500 25.000 4.000 15.000 2.500 5.000 1.000 11 1 11 1 12 2 12 2 c-10 n-11 - -11 p-1 -11 -11 n-12 b- r-12 -12 l- p-1 -12 -12 Ja Jun Jul- e ec Ja e p Jun Ju e ec De Feb-11 Mar Apr-11 May-1 Aug-11 S Oct Nov-11 D F Mar-12 A May-1 Aug-12 S Oct Nov-12 D Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither Noerr Finance & Tax SRL, Noerr nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. News December 2012 1 News on Romania The Last Year Inflation Remained Below the Prognosis of the Romanian National Bank But It EExxxxceededceeded Its Target Romania ended the previous year with an inflation rate of 4,95%, increasing compared to 3.14% in 2011 due to the weak production in agriculture, due to energy, gases and oil becoming more expensive, as well as due to the depreciation of RON. The weak demand from the economy could not break a series of price increases, however, the last inflation prognosis of the Romanian National Bank, increased in November up to 5.1%, was not achieved. At the beginning of the year, the central bank was thinking that the inflation would rise in 2012 to only 3.2%, but it was compelled to redo its calculations after more working hypotheses were overturned. Although the inflation prognosis was increased by nearly two percentage points, the monetary policy interest was maintained at 5.25% per year, the Romanian National Bank preferring to transmit its signals mainly through the liquidity leverage on the monetary market. The key interest remained by a quarter of a percentage point over the inflation, however it was not comprised by the interval of 2 - 4% targeted by the Romanian National Bank. The 3% target was not achieved, but the central bank can resort to a generous list of exoneration clauses, the Romanian National Bank officials constantly stating that the instruments available to them aim mainly the so-called CORE2 inflation which excludes the dynamics of the prices for vegetables-fruit (the main guilty elements for the increase of the autumn inflation), for fuel and tobacco, as well as of the administered prices. The inflation exploded practically in the second half of the year: from 3% in July it reached in December approximately 5%, the increase of the prices of the food products being reflected with a certain delay in the numbers published in the statistics. In October and November there was a period of relief after the shock from September when the inflation rate jumped to 5.3%. Under these circumstances, the market was expecting for the year end inflation to amount to 4.6%, however the price increases recorded by the food products in December exceeded the estimations of the analysts despite the fact that the demand deficit maintained its value. 2012 ended thus with an increasing inflation, however with a dynamics of the economy very closely to null. Source: Ziarul Financiar – 14.01.2013 The Financial Year Starts off with the Right Foot: the RON Recovers, the Stock Exchange Increases and the State Borrows Cheaper The RON and Romanian government bonds have attracted again the attention of the foreign investors, the tenders organised by the Ministry of Finances being more and more crowded during the last weeks due to the non-residents recovering their appetite for the local market. The year has stated well also for the Stock Exchange where the starting signals have gone beyond any expectations also due to the foreign capital. Another confirmation of the fact that the movements of the money are not led so much by fundaments, but by perceptions. Decisive was the end of the political crisis, but also the external background plays an important role in this change of attitude on the part of the foreigners, the liquidity being quite abundant on the external markets. The return of the capital to Romania has determined the analysts to radically change their forecast related to the exchange rate RON/EUR which is seen now decreasing down to 4.35 RON/EUR. At the same time, the government bond yields for three years are expected to go below the threshold of 6% per year. The economy does not show significant signs of recovery, whereas the increase estimated for this year amounts less than 2%. Nevertheless, new funds are entering the Stock Exchange, rapidly raising the prices in only two weeks. News December 2012 2 It remains to be seen whether the return of the capital flows will be consolidated, the premises being favourable especially if the big rating agencies, expected to arrive next months in Bucharest, will give positive signals. This change of the feelings of the non-residents has still to propagate also in the local economy. Source: Ziarul Financiar – 14.01.2013 IndicatorsIndicators 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F GDP (real, yoy, %) -6,60 -1,70 2,50 1,20 2,30 Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) -25,30 -13,10 41.005,00 4,70 5,10 Industrial output (real, yoy, %) -4,30 4,10 3,50 3,00 3,00 Consumer prices (yearly average) 5,59 6,10 5,80 3,10 4,10 Unemployment rate (yearly average) 6,90 7,30 7,40 7,30 7,00 Exports (yoy %) -5,50 13,10 9,90 6,50 8,70 Imports (yoy %) -20,60 11,60 10,50 6,70 8,80 Current account (% of GDP) -4,20 -4,40 -4,20 -4,10 -4,20 FDI (inflow, % of GDP) 3,00 1,80 1,40 1,10 1,30 Budget balance (% of GDP) -7,30 -6,40 -4,40 -3,00 -2,50 Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 68.5 74.5 72.2 71.7 70,90 Average exchange rate: RON/EUR 4,24 4,21 4,24 4,31 4,30 Policy rate (end of period, %) 8,00 6,25 6,00 5,00 5,00 Monthly wage, nominal (EUR) 326 334 346 364 387 Source: UniCredit Tiriac Bank Macroeconomic Research Fiscal indicators - actual values Gross minimum wage: 700 RON Gross average wage: 2.117 RON Social charges (excerpt) I.
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