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Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/Buy/Initiate) World's Largest Solar PV Glass Manufacturer

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Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/Buy/Initiate) World's Largest Solar PV Glass Manufacturer Global Company Analysis| March 16, 2021 Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/Buy/Initiate) World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Yongdai Park [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Xinyi Solar (968 HK) World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Investment points Rating (Initiate) Buy • The world’s largest solar PV glass manufacturer - Xinyi Solar stands to benefit from the strength of the global solar PV market. We expect the company to Target price HK$17.60 continue to grow rapidly, backed by capacity ramp-ups. Rise of bifacial modules Current price • HK$14.64 - The popularity of glass-glass (G/G) bifacial modules should provide a boost to solar PV glass demand. With its (3/15/21) competitive thin glass technology, Xinyi Solar is likely to be a major beneficiary. Country Hong Kong • Industry-leading profitability - Xinyi Solar is likely to maintain healthy margins thanks to: 1) the strength in solar PV glass prices (which should remain high at least through 2021); 2) economies of scale from capacity additions; and 3) cost savings from in- Exchange Hong Kong house sourcing of raw materials. Valuation Expected return 20.2% • We derived our target price of HK$17.6 by applying a fair P/E of 22x (2021F-22F peer average multiple). Risk factors EPS growth (21F, %) 44.2 • 1) Weaker-than-expected global solar PV demand; 2) capacity additions by rivals; and 3) a fall in solar PV glass P/E (21F, x) 18.3 prices Market P/E (21F, x) 14.9 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 800 Xinyi Solar FY (Dec.) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Market cap (HK$bn) 129.0 HIS INDEX Revenue (HK$mn) 7,672 9,096 12,316 18,628 23,424 27,209 Market cap (Wtr) 18.86 600 OP (HK$mn) 2,443 3,314 5,853 8,689 9,774 10,980 Shares outstanding (mn) 4,181.1 OP margin (%) 31.9 36.4 47.5 46.6 41.7 40.4 52-week low (HK$) 3.72 400 NP (HK$mn) 1,863 2,416 4,561 7,036 7,930 8,924 52-week high (HK$) 24.80 200 EPS (HK$) 0.24 0.30 0.55 0.80 0.90 1.01 ROE (%) 15.7 15.8 18.0 20.4 20.0 19.6 (%) 1M 6M 12M 0 P/E (x) 11.3 18.3 36.6 18.3 16.3 14.5 Absolute -30.0 47.9 210.2 P/B (x) 1.7 2.4 5.2 3.5 3.0 2.6 Relative -25.3 26.8 148.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Investment point 1: • Xinyi Solar, the world’s largest solar PV glass manufacturer, stands to benefit from the strength of the global solar World’s largest solar PV PV market. glass manufacturer • IHS Markit projects global solar PV installations to grow at a CAGR of 13% from 2019 to 2024. Allied Market Research forecasts the global solar PV glass market to expand at a CAGR of 30% from 2019 to 2026, backed by strong demand. • Against this backdrop, Xinyi Solar is aggressively expanding its daily melting capacity. • We estimate the firm’s aggregate daily melting capacity will expand to 13,800 tonnes in 2021 and 17,800 tonnes in 2022 (vs. 7,800 tonnes in 2019 and 9,800 tonnes in 2020). • Accordingly, we expect the firm’s solar PV glass revenue to grow 61% YoY in 2021 and 28% YoY in 2022. Global solar PV glass M/S breakdown (based on capacity) Global solar PV glass M/S breakdown by capacity (2020) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Xinyi Solar 29% 28% 33% 32% 32% 27% Flat Glass 18% 17% 13% 16% 17% 19% IRICO 4%5%4%7%6%8% 31% 30% CNBM 2%2%5%7%9%7% Jinxin Energy 9% 9% 11% 9% 8% 7% Ancai Hi-Tech 6%5%4%4%3%6% CSG 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% AVIC Sanxin 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 6% 18% Others in China 1%4%7%6%9%11% 10% China total 85% 86% 89% 91% 92% 93% Others outside China 15% 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% Xinyi Solar Flat Glass IRICO Jinxin Energy CNBM Others Global total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: SCI99, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Newly installed global solar PV capacity Global solar PV glass market size and outlook (GW) Asia-Pacific Europe Americas Africa/Middle East (US$mn) 250 40,000 21 2019-2026F CAGR: +30.3% 200 19 2019-24F CAGR: +13% 15 36 30,000 9 39 41 150 39 51 3 44 20,000 6 29 33 40 100 4 23 152 16 22 2 10 12 25 18 122 10,000 50 111 8 103 108 116 9 70 70 72 83 36 51 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Source: SolarEdge, IHS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Allied Market Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Xinyi Solar: Daily melting capacity Xinyi Solar: Solar PV revenue (tonnes/day) (HK$bn) 20,000 30 70% 60% 25 16,000 50% 20 12,000 40% 15 30% 8,000 20% 10 10% 4,000 5 0% 0 0 -10% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Investment point 2: • Xinyi Solar stands to benefit from the rise of bifacial modules, which are driving up demand for solar PV glass. Rise of bifacial modules • Globally, bifacial solar PV modules are gaining popularity over monofacial modules thanks to their ability to capture both direct (front panel) and indirect (back panel) sunlight. • The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) projects bifacial modules’ market share in China to rise from 13% in 2019 to 70% in 2025. Their global market share should also increase, albeit at a slower pace. • G/G bifacial modules display high power generation efficiency, but are heavy and expensive, as they require two pieces of glass (for the front and back). The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) projects the market share of G/G bifacial modules to rise to 30% by 2030. • We expect weight issues to be gradually addressed by new technologies. As a leader in the thin glass segment (able to produce lighter glass with thickness of 2mm and 2.5mm), Xinyi Solar is competitively positioned. Mono-facial modules vs. bifacial modules Bifacial modules as % of the Chinese solar PV market Bifacial Monofacial 100% 30 80% 60% 87 40% 70 20% 13 0% 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F Source: Mirae Asset Global Investments, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CPIA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Market share of G/G modules to expand on the back of higher power Bifacial modules as % of global solar PV module market generation efficiency Bifacial Monofacial Glass-foil Glass-glass Foil-foil 100% 100% 80% 80% 67 60% 60% 87 40% 40% 20% 20% 33 13 0% 0% 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2019 2020 2022 2024 2027 2030 Source: ITRPV, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: ITRPV, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Power generation efficiency: G/G modules > glass-foil modules Thinner solar PV glass to gain market share More than 3mm 2mm to 3mm Less than 2mm 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2018 2019 2021F 2023F 2026F 2029F Source: Solarwatt, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: ITRPV, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Investment point 3: • For Xinyi Solar’s solar PV glass business, we forecast gross margin at 50% in 2021 and 45% in 2022. Industry-leading • The global solar PV glass market is undersupplied as a result of: 1) pandemic-related delays in capacity profitability expansions; and 2) the Chinese government’s capacity control measures. Tight supply combined with growing demand has led to high prices, which are likely to continue through 2021. • Moreover, Xinyi Solar should continue to enjoy cost competitiveness thanks to: 1) economies of scale from capacity expansions; and 2) internal sourcing of raw materials (silica sand). The two biggest cost drivers are raw materials (approximately 30% of total production costs; soda lime and silica sand) and fuel (natural gas: 30%). • Xinyi Solar has a low-iron silica sand mine in Beihai, Guangxi Province. Given that a steady supply of high-purity silica sand is essential to solar PV glass production, Xinyi Solar is more competitively positioned than rivals. • Internal sourcing from the silica sand mine (which began operation in Sep. 2020) helps Xinyi Solar defend margins against a possible increase in raw material prices. Gross margin by major solar PV glass manufacturer Xinyi Solar: Solar PV glass production cost breakdown (%) 60 Xinyi Solar Flat Glass Luoyang Glass Almaden Ancai Hi-Tech 50 23% 30% 40 7% 30 20 10% 15% 10 15% Natural gas Soda ash Silica sand Electricity Labor Other 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CNESA Global Energy Storage Database, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7 | Xinyi Solar (968 HK) Mirae Asset Daewoo Research World's largest solar PV glass manufacturer Earnings and forecasts (HK$mn, %) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue 7,672 9,096 12,316 18,628 23,424 27,209 Solar glass 5,562 6,767 9,992 16,072 20,613 24,117 Solar farm business 1,920 2,228 2,324 2,556 2,811 3,093 EPC services 189 101 0 0 0 0 COGS (4,711) (5,185) (5,732) (8,752) (12,124) (14,612) GP 2,960 3,912 6,584 9,876 11,300 12,597 Selling & marketing expenses (271) (282) (317) (559) (703) (816) Admin.
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