Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 A vision to guide development in the major settlement areas of the Shire Discussion Paper December 2015 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper Contents 1 Purpose of this Discussion Paper 3 2 What’s happening in the Shire? 4 3 Strategic Planning - policy context 9 4 Influential factors in the state and regional context 10 4.1 Canberra Airport vision and development 12 4.2 Development of the Eastern Broadacre Area within the ACT 13 4.3 Rail line between Queanbeyan and Cooma 17 4.4 Positioning of Cooma-Monaro between growing areas 24 4.5 Tourism in the Snowy Mountains 26 4.6 Port of Eden development 28 4.7 Forecast increase in the national and state freight task 29 4.8 A warming climate 36 4.9 Expansion of the sawmill in Bombala 38 4.10 Development of the NBN in the south east 39 4.11 Maintenance of the region’s unique natural landscape and open space 40 4.12 Development of Bega Hospital as a major south east regional medical centre 41 4.13 Increasing use and development of online and virtual educational resources 41 4.14 Conversion to solar battery and electric car technology 42 4.15 Re-commencement of passenger air services from Snowy Mountains Airport 43 5 Settlements hierarchy – maintain status quo? 45 6 Cooma – vision and issues 52 7 Bredbo – vision and issues 61 8 Michelago – vision and issues 64 9 Smiths Road – vision and issues 66 10 Numeralla – vision and issues 68 11 Nimmitabel – vision and issues 70 12 Future directions 73 Page 2 of 73 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper 1 Purpose of this Discussion Paper The commencement of Cooma-Monaro Local Environmental Plan 2013 (CMLEP 2013) in October 2013 marked the beginning of a new stage in town planning in the Shire. For the first time in its history, the Shire now had a single Local Environmental Plan (LEP) to guide development into the future. In addition, this new LEP was up to date and consistent with the broader planning reforms being undertaken by the State Government. These planning reforms resulted in changes to the legislation governing the making of LEPs and required conformance to new State-wide standards in the content and format of LEPs. There was a substantial amount of information and issues for local Council’s to grapple with as part of this ‘transition’ process. As a result CMLEP 2013 in large part evolved as a planning instrument which attempted to ‘translate’ the provisions of the former LEPs into the new conforming format and context by making as few changes as possible to its fundamental provisions. This included zone boundaries, minimum lot sizes, permitted land uses in various zones, etc. Inevitably some changes did occur, but these were generally limited in scope and restricted to State Government requirements and/or fixing obvious problems in the previous LEPs. A Local Environment Study (LES) and Strategic Direction document were also prepared as part of the new LEP process. With updates and changes to legislation surrounding LEPs now reasonably settled, and with CMLEP 2013 having been in force for two years now, the time has come for Council and the community to think more broadly about its future directions in terms of planning and development. It is also an opportunity to move Council forward within the region and align its development directions with State Government regional thinking. The planning horizon of the State Government at present is 20 years, extending to the year 2036. This discussion paper focusses on the direction Cooma-Monaro Shire Council should take with its planning and development over this timeframe. It is not seeking to publicise decisions that have already been made, but is rather a genuine attempt to ascertain community attitudes to a range of planning and development issues. In this regard it has been written to stimulate discussion about key issues, and is not attempting to provide recommendations or ‘answers’. The feedback received will help inform the Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036, and this document will in turn guide the direction of future changes to CMLEP 2013. The much publicised Council amalgamations should not deter this process, as it fundamentally concerns the planning and development of a geographic area and the settlements within it. These will continue to exist regardless of the political and administrative body responsible for their oversight. Whatever the future governing institution may be, this discussion paper and the feedback it receives from the community will inform any future decision making process. Page 3 of 73 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper 2 What’s happening in the Shire? Cooma has changed a lot in the past 20 years. In 1995 there was no Aldi, no Centennial Plaza, no Snowy Mountains Christian School and no McDonalds. The levy banks along Cooma Creek were different and there was no Cooma Creek walkway. There was no Defence Call Centre and no dedicated Rural Fire Service Facility at Polo Flat. Cooma Swimming Pool looked very different, Grace Brothers was in the Hain Centre and Rhythm Snow Sports was little more than a petrol station. There was no Boco Rock windfarm or Pigring Creek Dam, and Michelago village and Smiths Road were not even part of the Shire. Other popular and successful businesses and industry of today were also non-existent or only in their formative stages. In broader society there were no iphones or tablets, mobile phones were large and bulky, TVs were large boxes and construction for the Sydney Olympics was barely underway. A lot can change in 20 years and this is the horizon in view in this discussion paper. The Shire in 2036 will be a different place to what it is today. But many things will also stay the same. Deciding what needs to change or what could change, in contrast to what needs to be maintained and preserved, is one of the most basic decisions to be made in any planning strategy aimed at the long term future. Cooma-Monaro Shire had an estimated residential population of 10 216 in 2014 (Australian Bureau of Statistics). The following graph shows the estimated residential population since 2003. Figure 1: The estimated Residential Population of the Shire over time. Page 4 of 73 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper The above graph shows a total increase of 4.4% or 432 persons over 11 years from 2003- 2014. It also shows that growth has been small but steady year to year over this period. At first glance this information appears reassuring in that the Shire has a stable and steady population base. However, there are trends within the population data itself which warrant awareness. It is well known that Australia’s population is aging, and Cooma-Monaro Shire is part of this trend. The following graph shows that over the period 2001-2011 almost all the positive change in population occurred in the 45 plus age groups. In addition, the median age of the Shire in 2011 was 43, which is 6 years above the median age of Australia as a whole. The Department of Planning and Environment publishes population projections for individual NSW local government areas (www.planning.nsw.gov.au/research-and-demography ). Their modelling suggests only a very modest average annual growth rate of between 0.1%-0.4% in each 5 year period from 2011-2031 is likely for the Shire. In addition the key factors affecting population change over this period have been identified as a high fertility rate and an aging population. However in broader societal trends the rate of natural increase is not expected to rise significantly, making the importance of attracting in-migration important in terms of maintaining population. Figure 2: The change in the age structure of the Shire over 10 years from 2001 to 2011. Page 5 of 73 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper NSW State Population Projections for the Shire 10,800 10,700 10,600 10,500 10,400 10,300 Total Population 10,200 10,100 10,000 9,900 9,800 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Figure 3: NSW State Population projections for the Shire showing very modest growth. Cooma has had a relatively stable population over the past several decades since the completion of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. This has been one of the underlying strengths of the town and is a reflection of its relatively diverse economy. Retail trade is the largest sector of employment for local residents, at 12.4% of the workforce, but public administration and safety, and health care and social assistance are not far behind. There is also well over 300 people (6.5% of employed residents) working in each of the following industry sectors: Construction, Agriculture Forestry and Fishing, Accommodation and Food Services and Education and Training. The Gross Regional Product of the Shire’s economy has also been growing, reaching $547 million at the end of the 2013/14 financial year. Figure 4: Gross Regional Product for selected years in Cooma-Monaro Shire. Page 6 of 73 Cooma-Monaro Settlements Strategy 2016-2036 – Discussion Paper Despite its generally good economic performance the Shire is aging, and like the rest of regional NSW is likely to do so at a faster rate than NSW or Australia as a whole over the coming 20 years. NSW is projected to grow by 2 million people over this period, but the vast majority of the growth is likely to occur in the Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong regions.