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Interim Governments and the Stability of Peace

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Interim Governments and the Stability of Peace Interim Governments and the Stability of Peace Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Dr. rer. pol. im Fach Politikwissenschaft vorgelegt von Julia Strasheim eingereicht an der Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften der Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg im September 2016 Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Aurel Croissant Zweitgutachterin: Prof. Dr. Jale Tosun Julia Strasheim GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies Neuer Jungfernstieg 21 20354 Hamburg [email protected] First printed 2016 iv Acknowledgements Writing this dissertation would not have been possible without the outstanding direct and indirect support of a long list of people. First and foremost, I would like to thank my dissertation supervisors at the University of Heidelberg. I am greatly indebted to my main supervisor Aurel Croissant, who oversaw more than three years of my doctoral research and who provided excellent supervision and invaluable comments on numerous chapter drafts. I am equally grateful to my second supervisor Jale Tosun, whose constructive comments and rigorous feedback during my final year of doctoral research greatly contributed to this project. In this regard, I would also like to express my gratitude to the partic- ipants of both of my supervisors’ colloquiums at the University of Heidelberg for their helpful remarks and suggestions during various presentations; and to the Graduate Academy at the University of Heidelberg for generously funding my fieldwork (and for unbureaucratically supporting me in postponing my trip following Nepal’s 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake). Besides joining the excellent research environment of the University of Hei- delberg as an external PhD candidate, I have throughout the process of writing my dissertation been fortunate to be based as a research fellow at the GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies in Hamburg, and I am grateful to a number of people at the GIGA. I have particularly enjoyed and benefited from the companionship of the #isppartyteam, Nadine Ansorg and Felix Haaß, who have been great role models, collaborators, conference travel partners, and fellow pho bo enthusiasts. Sabine Kurtenbach has been equally supportive and important to this project and has provided many incisive comments after read- ing through several chapters of the manuscript. I would furthermore like to thank all those colleagues who have commented on my research at various pre- sentations and who have proofread some of the chapters. Matthias Basedau, Julia Grauvogel, Viola Lucas, Andreas Mehler, Martin Ottmann, Christian von Soest, Leslie Wehner, and Franzisca Zanker deserve special mentions, as do the members of the former research team “War and Peace Processes” as well as the participants of the Institutions for Sustainable Peace network conference in Geneva in 2014. Apart from GIGA colleagues, Christian Opitz, Felix Bethke, and David Benček were very helpful proofreaders of this dissertation. Among the most rewarding experiences of this project has been my empir- v ical fieldwork in Nepal in the fall of 2015. Coming to Kathmandu onlyafew months after the Gorkha earthquake was certainly a life shaping experience, and I am profoundly grateful for all the inspiration, kindness, and generous support of so many individuals who invited me to their homes, introduced me to their culture, shared their food with me, laughed at my attempts to dance while wearing a sari, and enriched this project much beyond the research part of it. I would in this regard especially like to thank the team of the Nepal Peace- building Initiative for its wonderful support – Subindra Bogati, Srijana Nepal, Neha Uprety, and Bimal Sapkota: my stay in Nepal would have been much more difficult, and certainly not as enjoyable, without your company. Iam particularly grateful to Srijana Nepal, who also provided excellent research as- sistance, translation, and companionship during our many (unvoluntarily long) walks through Kathmandu. I am furthermore indebted to Gyanman Maharjan and his family for their hospitality, to my numerous interview partners who took time to exchange their views with me, as well as to Manish Thapa, Ashik K.C., and Laura Wilmers for getting me in touch with so many valuable contacts in Kathmandu (and for recommending the best restaurants in town). A number of very wonderful friends both within and outside academia have also been a constant source of advice and moral support throughout the past four years – and have eased my transition from living abroad for such a long time to returning to Germany. This naturally concerns my lovely friends in Hamburg, but also all those terrific people I happened to meet in the various places I previously called home – Helsinki, Uppsala, Prishtina, and Hanoi. You know who you are: writing this dissertation would have been a lot more difficult without your sympathetic ears over lunch and dinner, traveling and festival ad- ventures, supportive postcards and letters, gossipy Skype calls, as well as visits and reunions (that should have been more frequent – I blame the dissertation). I also owe a great debt to my parents for their unwavering encouragement over the years and for always believing in me – I would not be where I am today without your help. Most of all, I however want to thank David for his never- ending patience, encouragement, love, laughter, (cleaning up my R code), and constant reminder that there is a beautiful life outside of academia: Ja sam najsretnija osoba na svijetu zato što mi smo ze upoznali. vi Table of Contents List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Acronyms xv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Defining Central Concepts ...................... 4 1.1.1 Interim Governments after Armed Conflict ........ 4 1.1.2 The Stability of Post-Interim Peace ............ 5 1.2 Structure of the Dissertation .................... 7 2 Literature Review 11 2.1 Interim Governments and Democratization ............ 12 2.2 Interim Governments and Peace ................... 15 2.2.1 Power-Sharing Interim Government ............. 17 2.2.2 International Interim Government ............. 21 2.3 Shortcomings of Past Research ................... 24 3 Theoretical Framework 27 3.1 The Bargaining Theory of War ................... 27 3.2 Causal Mechanisms and Hypotheses ................ 33 3.2.1 Institutional Designs of Interim Governments ....... 33 3.2.2 Reform Processes in Interim Governments ......... 38 3.3 Chapter Summary .......................... 44 4 Statistical Analysis 47 4.1 Research Design ........................... 48 4.1.1 Sampling Strategy and Data Sources ............ 48 4.1.2 Measuring the Dependent Variable ............. 52 4.1.3 Measuring the Independent Variables ........... 53 4.1.4 Measuring the Control Variables .............. 57 4.1.5 Estimation Techniques .................... 59 4.2 Results and Discussion ........................ 61 vii 4.2.1 Regression Results: Main Analysis ............. 61 4.2.2 Model Diagnostics and Robustness Checks ......... 65 4.2.3 Addressing Endogeneity Issues ............... 72 4.3 Chapter Summary .......................... 75 5 Qualitative Analysis 85 5.1 Limitations of the Statistical Analysis ............... 85 5.2 Research Design ........................... 87 5.2.1 Case Selection Strategy ................... 87 5.2.2 Introducing the Cases .................... 89 5.2.3 Within- and Between-Case Analysis ............ 93 5.2.4 Material and Sources ..................... 95 5.3 Empirical Fieldwork in Nepal .................... 97 5.3.1 Methods and Techniques ................... 97 5.3.2 Reflections on Fieldwork ................... 99 6 Interim Rule in Nepal 103 6.1 Nepal: A History of Political Turmoil ............... 104 6.1.1 Introducing the Warring Parties .............. 104 6.1.2 Democratization and Insurgency .............. 109 6.1.3 Post-Interim Politics in Nepal ................ 113 6.2 Interim Government in Nepal .................... 115 6.2.1 Power-Sharing Interim Government ............. 116 6.2.2 International Interim Government ............. 123 6.2.3 Integration of Parallel Institutions ............. 126 6.2.4 Participation of Unarmed Actors .............. 136 6.3 Chapter Summary .......................... 138 7 Interim Rule in Angola 141 7.1 Angola: Three Decades of War ................... 142 7.1.1 Introducing the Warring Parties .............. 142 7.1.2 From Civil War to General Elections ............ 146 7.2 Interim Government in Angola ................... 150 7.2.1 Power-Sharing Interim Government ............. 152 7.2.2 International Interim Government ............. 158 7.2.3 Integration of Parallel Institutions ............. 162 7.2.4 Participation of Unarmed Actors .............. 171 7.3 Chapter Summary .......................... 174 8 Interim Rule in Cambodia 177 8.1 Cambodia: From Genocide to Civil War .............. 178 8.1.1 Funan, Chenla, and French Indochina ........... 178 8.1.2 Introducing the Warring Parties .............. 181 8.1.3 Civil War and Peace Negotiations ............. 183 viii 8.2 Interim Government in Cambodia ................. 188 8.2.1 Power-Sharing Interim Government ............. 190 8.2.2 International Interim Government ............. 196 8.2.3 Integration of Parallel Institutions ............. 201 8.2.4 Participation of Unarmed Actors .............. 211 8.3 Chapter Summary .......................... 214 9 Comparative Analysis 217 9.1 The Quality of Post-Interim Peace ................. 217 9.2 Why Interim Governments Matter ................. 220 9.2.1 Institutional Designs
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