Managing Uncertainty Cover Art by Jim Harris

® 6"1 ÊÎ£]Ê "°Ê{ÊUÊ*,Ê2013 Managing Uncertainty Cover art by Jim Harris In This Issue From the President...............................................................2 From the Editor ........................................................................2 AAA News......................................................................................3 What’s New . 4 Snow Science Time for a New Friction Term ...............................................8 Story by Doug Krause Beacon Interference Issues ..................................................10 Stream Flow & Wet Avalanche Cycles ..........................11 Trigger Locations in Complex Terrain............................26 Near twelve thousand feet in Silverton, there is a ridge that defines the southern boundary of Prospect Gulch. From this ridge, numerous north-facing avalanche paths descend through the sub-alpine forest. Just above treeline there is Managing Uncertainty a lightly wooded rib that separates a path’s shady side from the sunny side. We agreed that the light on the sunny side Improving Decision-Making Speak Your Mind .................................................cover, 14 made it a little more appealing. Steve dropped in and encountered semi-supportive temperature crust and invisible Group Communication in the Backcountry ...........15 wind funk. I changed my mind regarding the importance of pretty light and cautiously skied fall line to the top of the rib Radio Protocols.......................................................................17 between the adjacent start zones. A few scrubby trees provided a nice vantage from which to inspect the area. On either The Wisdom of Crowds .....................................................17 side of me the slopes steepened and fell to the valley floor about 1400' below. I hollered “I’m gonna check this side.” Continuing Pro Development: CAA Level 2 ..........18 I decided to throw a cut on the start zone before committing to the fall line, sussed my move and slowly approached Perspectives on Risk Risk: Focusing on the Wrong Action . 22 the convexity from the side. The slope collapsed. I heard and felt the failure beneath my feet propagate out into the Risk Tolerance and Decision-Making .........................24 start zone. Pause. A small crack appeared. Pause. I shot across the start zone to my happier place, turned, and watched Translating Uncertainty into Decision-Making ...25 the slab begin to break up and churn down the slope. The whole process from failure, to making my move, to observing Resolving Uncertainty . 25 from the happier place probably took less than three seconds and most of that was moving, not thinking. I traversed Perspectives on Risk ............................................................26 back across the bed surface and shouted to Steve that everything was fine except the skiing was ruined. I don’t know if Crown Profiles the snowpack at the trigger point released or not. Did my happy place wash away with the avalanche or remain intact? Sidecountry Discussion Should I have stayed put? Why on Earth would you cut across a failing slab that was in the process of producing an In Defense of Sidecountry ...............................................19 avalanche? My gut told me it was the right move. Let’s Bury the Monster.......................................................20 See “Speak Your Mind” continued on page 14 ¦ There’s No Such Thing as Sidecountry . 21 Is Sidecountry a Four-Letter Word? ...........................21 Comparison of Advisory Bulletins ..................................28 The Avalanche Review AAIC Season Summary 2011/12 .......................................31 P.O. Box 2831 Pagosa Springs, CO 81147 Terrain is a useful tool if we can relate it to the dynamic physical processes that influence the development of the snowpack. —Zach Guy, Triggers in Complex Terrain, pg 12 XÊ* ÊÓ / Ê6 Ê, 6 7 6"°ÊÎ£]Ê "°Ê{]Ê*,ÊÓä£Î THE from the president REVIEW ÃÌ>LÃ }Ê"ÕÀÊ*ÀviÃÃ>Ê6>Õi Are you an avalanche professional? This the end we have to deliver *,ÊÓä£ÎÊUÊ6" °ÊÎ£ÊUÊ 1 , Ê{ might seem to be an unconventional question to ask value to our clients. The Avalanche Review is published each fall through spring by the American Avalanche Association, Inc., a nonprofit corporation. members of a professional organization. But it is a question The process of delivering The Avalanche Review welcomes the submission of articles, I would like you to ponder. Your answer will likely shape value starts and ends with photographs and illustrations. the perception and direction of our profession. us – as individuals and as We as avalanche practitioners in the United States have an organization. For society Please send submissions to: Lynne Wolfe –– Editor defined the standards for professional status, at least for to take us seriously we have PO Box 1135 membership into the AAA. Defining our standards has to take ourselves seriously, Driggs, Idaho 83422 not been easy (they have even changed over the years) first. I am guilty as charged. tel: (208) 709-4073 because the avalanche community is unique compared For years when asked what Dale in his element. [email protected] to other professions. I can’t think of another profession I did, I replied, “I am a snow nerd.” Now I say I am a Advertising Sales & Production: where the advance-degreed academic and the high school lawinologist. That’s a title that gets attention. Karen Russell Fall Line Design graduate who has made a career of working in and around Back in 1978 eminent Columbia University sociologists 270 N Main avalanches can be recognized and respected as peers. Robert Morten and Thomas Gieryn characterized three Driggs, ID 83422 Both individuals have mastered and apply high levels of key aspects of being a professional: knowing, doing, and tel/fax: (208) 354-6500 inference skill, and deliver high levels of service value. helping. A professional must be competent, practiced, [email protected] Within our avalanche community we give the professional and provide a service. Since then society has imposed a Business and Subscription Office: label to qualified individuals who have earned the title by fourth aspect: improving. By continually improving our Mark Mueller –– AAA Executive Director way of education or experience. This has served us well for knowledge, skills, and abilities we can deliver better value PO Box 2831 Pagosa Springs, CO 81147 more than 25 years; however, for the avalanche profession to our clients. Part of the process of continually improving tel: (970) 946-0822 / fax: (970) 731-2486 to be taken seriously, we must do more. should be a requirement for continuing professional [email protected] While we lay claim to professional status, society takes a development. This is part of acting professionally. more demanding approach and attaches the professional Self-improvement requires internal desire, and not label to only certain occupations. Lawyers and doctors everyone has this quality. Some professionals are content are deemed professionals, but electricians and auto simply to have achieved the status and don’t necessarily mechanics are not. These four occupations all diagnose comply with policies, procedures, and regulations. and treat problems, but some are professionals and others According to human-errors expert Tony Kern these are trades. What about teachers, firefighters, nurses, real professionals are just members. Other professionals are estate brokers, and avalanche workers? more ethically sound but are stagnant because they never Executive Director .....................Mark Mueller How do avalanche practitioners differ from teachers, reach their full potential. Kern attributes this stagnation AAA Officers firefighters, nurses, real estate brokers, auto mechanics, to the lack of an improvement process known or available *President ................................Dale Atkins *Vice President .........................John Stimberis or electricians? Harvard Business School professor Ashish to them. Kern encourages professionals to embrace and *Secretary.................................Scott Savage Nanda says doctors, lawyers, architects, and investment continually improve their knowledge, skills, and abilities. *Treasurer.................................Mike Ferrari counselors are professional occupations because the Regularly seeking personal and professional growth can Committee Chairs practitioners in those fields must master complex inference make an avalanche pro “ten feet tall in a six-foot world.” Awards ......................................Halsted Morris Data..........................................Ned Bair skills, and their inference method is judgment. Ultimately, This is part of why we are beginning to require Continuing Education .................................Sarah Carpenter, Kirk Bachman it is the professional’s judgment that is considered valuable Education hours for our Certified Instructors. Ethics .......................................Lel Tone by their clients. The same can be said about the avalanche The American Avalanche Association is here to help our IT/Web .......................................vacant Membership ..............................Stuart Thompson profession, as the judgment of avalanche professionals keeps members become 10' tall. When you’re 10' tall, you get Research...................................Jordy Hendrikx people and property safe and keeps commerce moving. noticed, and people pay attention to your actions. When Search & Rescue ......................Rich

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