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PLURINATIONAL BOLIVIA: Change Process and Social Conflict by Theo Roncken, Acción Andina

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PLURINATIONAL BOLIVIA: Change Process and Social Conflict by Theo Roncken, Acción Andina Bolivia PLURINATIONAL BOLIVIA: Change Process and Social Conflict By Theo Roncken, Acción Andina Plurinational Bolivia: Change Process and Social Conflict Authored by Theo Roncken © GPPAC. 2016 October 2016 2 Table of Contents Introduction p.5 Methodology and Approach p.6 Evolution of the Bolivian Conflict Context p.7 Causes and Drivers of Bolivian Conflict p.9 Scenarios, Outlooks and Change Actors p.14 Final Recommendations and Findings p.18 Bibliography p.19 October 2016 3 List of Abbreviations & Acronyms CIDOB Confederación de Pueblos Indígenas de Bolivia / Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Bolivia CONAMAQ Consejo Nacional de Ayllus y Markas del Qullasuyu / National Council of Ayllus and Markas of Qullasuyu CPE Constitución Política del Estado / Political State Constitution COB Central Obrera Boliviana / Bolivia’s Central Worker’s Union FEJUVE Federación de Juntas Vecinales de El Alto / Federation of Neighbour’s Association’s IBCE Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior / The Bolivian Institute of Foreign Trade MAS Movimiento Al Socialismo / Movement for Socialism MSM Movimiento Sin Miedo / Movement Without Fear PLAC-Paz Plataforma Latinoamericana para la Prevención de Conflictos y la Construcción de la Paz / Latin American and Caribbean Platform for the Prevention of Armed and/or Violent Conflict and Peace Building RIN Reservas Internacionales Netas / Net International Reserves TIPNIS Territorio Indígena y Parque Nacional Isiboro Secure / Indigenous Territory and the Isiboro-Sécure National Park UNITAS Unión Nacional de Instituciones para el Trabajo de Acción Social National / Union of Institutions of Social Action Work October 2016 4 In February 2016, the Bolivian President Evo account. There are contrasting views on how the process has been managed politically, which have been voiced but not Morales suffered electoral defeat for the first usually debated in the public sphere. This reflects the need for a timely and continuous exchange on both conflicting and time in ten years. In a national referendum, a complementary perspectives among the key actors and majority of voters rejected a proposal to observers in Bolivia. During the course of President Evo Morales' second administration (2010-2014), there was bypass constitutional law and allow Morales certainly a growing impetus for conflict management to run in 2019 for his fourth consecutive observation and monitoring initiatives, with a dramatic increase of publications on the subject matter and presidential term. “conflictologists” participating in public and private spheres. However, there are few local forums or platforms for reflection that can enable joint action at different levels. This paper seeks to identify the internal conflict dynamics and the key That judgment, however definitive in legal terms, did not put actors in Bolivia that may play a role in preventing crisis and an end to the controversy, and in the months following the conflict escalation in the country as the change process referendum several attempts emerged to revoke its results. continues to unfold. More recently, other signs of a growing political crisis reached the international media when Vice-minister Rodolfo Why an alert about social conflict in Bolivia? Illanes was taken hostage and killed during negotiations with a belligerent group of cooperative mine workers in In spite of wide-spread social tensions and an ongoing trend August 2016. As reflected in recent events, after a brief towards radicalized social protest, Bolivia is usually interruption in Morales’ first years of presidency, Bolivia’s considered politically stable, and most observers rule out a political leadership is again subject to a growing risk of potential escalation into a governance crisis in the near reaching high levels of contested governance. This paper future. One of the main containment factors is the progressive explores the historical context, socio-economic and political build-up of a financial buffer under Evo Morales’s developments that frame the current situation, from the administrations, thanks to increased revenues from the export perspective of state-society interactions in Bolivia. Based on of commodities (in particular fuels and minerals) which until this analysis, it identifies key actors and options for a conflict recently even resisted the direct impact of the global prevention and resolution agenda, and for safeguarding economic crisis. Nevertheless, there is a need to understand human Security in Bolivia going forward. how the different social dynamics, motivations and political practices interact to influence and address conflicts and their causes, as these could potentially trigger a crisis in the mid- INTRODUCTION term. This calls for a permanent and adequate consideration of alert messages. A number of critical issues can be easily identified, including In February 2009, the Bolivian State and society formalized a new governance framework for a Plurinational State, - in the economic sphere: reliance on extractive industries for which signaled a political opening towards traditionally export, insufficient agricultural production to cover the excluded social sectors. The adoption of a new Political domestic market needs, privatization trends which are often State Constitution (Constitución Política del Estado, CPE) negated in the dominating political discourse; concluded a lengthy and conflict-ridden constitutional - in the social and cultural sphere: growing job insecurity, drafting process, and paved the way for a collective inadequate public utility services, a declining social welfare reconstruction of relations in the various social and system, everyday violence, top-down expressions of power institutional spheres of Bolivia. The approval of the in the social and family sphere, as well as segregation and Constitution text by popular referendum was a milestone in deterioration of the social fabric; a ”change process” that started years before the - in the political sphere: prevalence and renewal of administration of President Evo Morales in the midst of authoritarian, patronage-based and exclusionary practices, growing social protest against a declining political model. A inability to reach agreements over objectives and strategic key tenet in this change process concerns State-society State programs and recurring management deficiencies. relations, which were captured in the foundational principles of the new Plurinational State. Pursuant to section 8 of the This paper considers the Bolivian situation since 2006 from a new constitution, these relations should be underpinned by post-conflict scenario perspective, as explained in the section values of unity, equality, inclusion, dignity, liberty, solidarity, to follow. The significant political-ideological, economic and reciprocity, respect, interdependence, harmony, socio-cultural fragmentation reflected across various sectors transparency, balance, equal opportunities, social and provide ample reason to be on the alert. The intention of gender equality in participation, common welfare, exploring the whole set of factors and actors that impact on responsibility, social justice, distribution and redistribution of the conflict dynamics is not limited to a risk assessment social wealth and resources. exercise on political stability or peaceful coexistence. Rather, the notion that must prevail is that "it is critical to interpret Conflict trends in Bolivia cannot be interpreted without conflicts from a democratic perspective, since it allows us to taking the various aspects of this change process into evaluate the maturity of the political system and its interaction October 2016 5 with society.”1 State-society interaction in Bolivia is highly Analyzing social conflict and unrest dynamic and intimately linked with the evolution of social At the end of December 2013, the analysis unit of The conflict. Using a conflict transformation approach, this paper Economist ranked Bolivia among the countries in the world aims to highlight the opportunities that can be drawn from with the highest risk of social unrest.4 Yet, the Bolivian media "the concurrence of informed, organized and autonomous that echoed the news article ruled out any possibility of citizens, with the capacity to act as agents of change.”2 political instability, such as the one faced by the country during the prelude to Evo Morales' presidency, described in the background section below. State-society interaction in Bolivia is highly The characteristics of social unrest at any given moment will dynamic and intimately linked with the evolution vary depending on the type of conflict at hand, the political culture, the stakeholders' capacity to mobilize, the responses of social conflict of the State, and various other factors.5 At the societal level in Bolivia, a recent survey showed that eight out of ten individuals preferred dialogue as a means to solve social conflicts, yet half of them would take to the streets to make their voices heard. The growing social mobilization and METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH protest practices in recent decades are explained as a response to the loss of legitimacy of dialogue.6 Consequently, Background and scope of this paper collective actions are “the preferred means of State-society This paper analyzes the features of social conflict during the interlocution.”7 'Evo years' (2006-2016) – including the motivations, actors, and opportunities for transformation that they represent. Most observers agree in interpreting these social conflict Which types
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