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POLITICAL Dealfgnivlent in BRITAIN : Tfle LOCAL EVTOENCE 1959-1979

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POLITICAL Dealfgnivlent in BRITAIN : Tfle LOCAL EVTOENCE 1959-1979 University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 04 University of Plymouth Research Theses 01 Research Theses Main Collection 2003 POLITICAL DEALIGNMENT IN BRITAIN : THE LOCAL EVIDENCE 1959-1979 LAMBE, PAUL JAMES http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2052 University of Plymouth All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. POLITICAL DEALfGNIVlENT IN BRITAIN : TflE LOCAL EVTOENCE 1959-1979 by PAUL JAMES LAMBE A thesis submitted to the University of Plymouth in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Politics Faculty of Human Sciences July 2003 LIBRARY STORE UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH Item No. me 2 7 NOV 2003 0!:s5 No. uor.i. No. >^1T> U-b-feObP O •. 'MCUTH UBHAHY Ill Abstract This thesis challenges the dominant view that municipal elections tell us practically nothing about the preferences and attitudes of the voter to local issues and events, that municipal elections are no more than national referendums. It suggests that the influence of socio-economic environment and political context and indeed structural factors have hitherto been underestimated. It argues that municipal politics and voting behaviour impact upon parliamentary electoral behaviour and outcomes and thereby the politics of place impinge upon the national electoral level. The thesis employs a multi-disciplinary approach that combines the qualitative research methods of the historian and the quantitative statistical analysis of the political scientist to unravel the interactions between the politics of place and voting behaviour in Britain between 1959 and 1979 at a time of dealignment at the parliamentary level and increased politicisation of elections at the municipal level. Patterns and trends in party support at parliamentary elections in four constituencies were analysed using quantitative methods and contrasted with patterns and trends in party support at municipal elections in coterminous electoral units. Significant variance between the two levels of electoral activity was evidenced. The research then employed qualitative methods and evidence from four case studies was presented that local contextual factors could account for much of the disparity between municipal and national patterns of party support in these locations. Quantitative research methods were resumed and the statistical techniques of multivariate regression and logistic regression employed to analyse socio-economic, political and structural variables in relation to party support at municipal and parliamentary elections in the c£ise study areas. The findings of the quantitative analysis corroborated much of the qualitative findings and the conclusion reached •A p' * IV that the influence of contextual factors upon party support at municipal elections has been underestimated Furthermore, that the interdisciplinary methodology employed is one that others in both political science and history may fruitfully follow to the advantage of both disciplines. LIST OF CONTENTS Page Abstract (iii) List of Contents (iv) List of Tables (vii) List of Figures (xii) List of Maps (xv) Acknowledgements (xvi) Author's Declaration (xvii) CHAPTER 1 : WHY LOOK AT DEALIGNMENT AGAIN? 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Political science and electoral change - stability to volatility 3 1.3 Political historians and electoral change 9 1.4 Thesis structure 15 1.5 Conclusion 19 CHAPTER 2:PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON LOCAL ELECTIONS 2.1 Introduction 20 2.2 Survey research 21 2.3 Aggregate data 22 2.4 Local electoral research 24 2.5 Conclusion 36 CHAPTER 3:METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 38 3.2 Case studies 40 3.3 Methods and sources of data 45 3.4 Problems with data 48 3.5 Criteria for selection of case study locations 51 3.6 Coterminous electoral units 53 3.7 Local electoral cycles 58 3.8 Conclusion 59 CHAPTER 4:ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL DATA 4.1 Introduction 61 4.2 Inner-London 62 4.3 LCC and GLC elections 74 4.4 Borough, LCC/GLC and parliamentary voting behaviour in 81 Inner-London 4.5 Summary of Inner-London voting behaviour at local authority 85 Aggregate level, and comparison with Inner-London parliamentary constituency voting behaviour 4.6 Birmingham County Borough elections 1959-1972. and 88 Birmingham District Council elections 1973-1979 4.7 West Midlands County Council elections 1973, 1977 and 1981 95 4.8 Birmingham parliamentary and local electoral voting 97 behaviour contrasted 4.9 Summary of Birmingham local electoral voting behaviour at 100 local authority aggregate level and comparison with Birmingham parliamentary constituency voting behaviour 4.10 Electoral trends in coterminous electoral units 101 4.11 Conclusion 117 CEIAPTER 5:BIRJ\IINGHAM LADYWOOD 5.1 Introduction 120 5.2 Ladywood, its boundaries and electoral history 121 5.3 Inner-city Birmingham and Liberal Party electoral strategy 125 5.4 Iimer-city housing and Lawlerism 127 5.5 Housing conditions, voter discontent and Liberal responses . 130 5.6 Birmingham Labour Group and political pragmatism 137 5.7 Changing salience of the housing issue 149 5.8 Voting and issues of immigration and education 153 5.9 Conclusion 156 CHAPTER 6:SUTTON COLDFEELD 6.1 Introduction 162 6,2 Labour's displacement by the Liberals 169 6,3 Sutton's socio-political backdrop 171 6.4 Liberal strategy 175 6.5 Sutton Liberals and local issues 179 6.6 Sutton Coldfield's Conservative dealignment and realigrmient 190 6.7 Conclusion 200 CHAPTER 7:ISLINGTON 7.1 Introduction 206 7.2 Party political background 208 7.3 The Labour group and housing in Islington 213 7.4 Islington Labour Party dissent 218 7.5 London Liberal Party strategy 219 7.6 The Liberal Party's foothold in Islington 223 7.7 The electoral salience of housing 225 7.8 The 1970s Liberal revival constrained by the Labour left 228 7.9 1970s Liberal campaigns 231 7.10 An alliance lifeline 233 7.11 Conclusion 234 CHAPTER 8:CAMDEN 8.1 Introduction 240 8.2 Party political background 240 8.3 Labour's tenuous control 247 VI 8.4 Housing conditions and voter discontent 250 8.5 Liberal revival 254 8.6 Liberals limited by local Labour Party Organisation 257 8.7 Housing and the 1964 election for control of Camden 259 8.8 Camden Labour Group 1964-1968 262 8.9 Labour's declining support 265 8.10 The Labour Group in the 1970s 270 8.11 Liberal lifeline 272 8.12 Conclusion 272 CHAPTER 9:MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 9.1 Introduction 277 9.2 The variables in the data-base 279 9.3 Outline of the core model 286 9.4 Determination of relevant and irrelevant variables 286 9.5 Hypotheses 290 9.6 Multivariate regression analysis Birmingham and Inner- 292 London elections 9.7 Conclusion 312 CHAPTER 10: LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS 10.1 Introduction 317 10.2 Report of Birmingham logistic regression analysis 322 10.3 Report of Inner- London logistic regression analysis 327 10.4 Liberal Party support and odds of winning in Birmingham, 332 Sutton Coldfield and inner-London 10.5 Summary of logistic regression of Birmingham and London 333 elections 10.6 Interpretation of the residuals 341 10.7 Conclusion 348 CHAPTER 11:A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE EVIDENCE 11.1 Introduction 352 11.2 Summary of quantitative evidence 353 11.3 Birmingham qualitative and quantitative evidence 356 11.4 Inner-London qualitative and quantitative evidence 366 11.5 Conclusion 378 CHAPTER 12:CONCLUSIONS 12.1 Introduction 381 12.2 Not so irrelevant elections 382 12.3 Partisan and class-party alignment 385 12.4 Future research 392 12.5 Conclusion 395 BIBLIOGRAPHY 396 APPENDIX A: Cells used from each census in relation to each variable 417 APPENDIX B: Model assumptions and equation 418 APPENDIX C: Technical appendix 420 vu LIST OF TABLES Table Contents Page 1 Sources of socio-economic data. 46 2 Structure of party competition, Irmer-London Borough elections, 63 1956-1978. 3 Liberal Party percentage share of the total vote and contestation, 64 Irmer-London Borough elections, 1956-1978. 4 Candidate/seats ratios, Inner-London Borough elections, 1956- 65 1978. 5 Party percentage share of the total vote, Iimer-London Borough 66 elections 1956-1978. 6 Liberal Party percentage share of the total vote and Liberal Party 68 percentage share of the total vote contested wards only, Inner- London Borough elections, 1956-1978. 7 *Butler Swing' index of volatility at successive Irmer-London 69 Borough elections, 1959-1982. 8 Pedersen index of dissimilarity, all boroughs aggregate at 70 successive Inner-London Borough elections, 1956-1982. 9 Pedersen index of dissimilarity, individual boroughs at 71 successive Inner-London Borough elections, 1956-1982. 10 Structure of party competition at LCC / GLC (Inner-London) 76 elections, 1955-1981. 11 Candidate/seat ratio LCC / GLC (Inner-London) elections, 1955- 77 1981. 12 Party percentage share of the total vote at LCC / GLC (Inner- 78 London) elections,1955-1981. 13 Liberal Party percentage share of the total vote and Liberal Party 79 percentage share of the total vote in contested wards only at LCC / GLC (Inner-London) elections, 1955-1981. 14 'Butler Swing* index of volatility at successive LCC/ GLC 79 (Inner-London) elections. 1955-1981. 15 Pedersen index of dissimilarity at successive LCC / GLC (Inner- 80 London) elections, 1955-1981. VIU 16 Pedersen index of dissimilarity for individual boroughs at 81 successive GLC (Iimer-London) elections 1964-1981. 17 Party percentage share of the total vote and Liberal Party 81 contestation at General Elections in Inner-London constituencies, 1955-1979. 18 Structure of party competition at Birmingham County Borough 89 elections 1959-1972, and Birmingham District Council elections 1973-1979.
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