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Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies

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Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies: Comparing Causes of Party System Institutionalisation By Benjamin Rowe Jones Submitted to Central European University Department of Political Science Central European University In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Arts Supervisor: Zsolt Enyedi CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary (2012) Abstract Although interest in party system institutionalisation remains high within the discipline, few scholars have considered what factors may or may not contribute to this phenomenon. This paper attempts to fill this gap in examining the causes of party system institutionalisation through both statistical and case study analyses. Based on the most extensive data assembled, this study finds that contrary to the findings of much of the traditional literature on party system institutionalisation, age of democracy does not play a determining role. Instead, we find that the period in which democratisation took place is the decisive factor, with those democracies inaugurated in earlier periods experiencing a significantly lower level of electoral volatility than those regimes inaugurated more recently. Additionally, the most original finding of the paper is that unlike parliamentary or presidential regimes, semi- presidential regimes serve to undermine party system institutionalisation causing a significant increase in electoral volatility. Finally, this paper also provides an in depth case study of the Brazilian party system concluding that alongside the historical legacy left by twenty years of military rule, party system stability has been hampered by both institutional and elite-driven factors. CEU eTD Collection i Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor Zsolt Enyedi for his support and wise guidance throughout this project. I am also grateful for the generosity shown by Scott Mainwaring, Eleanor Neff Powell and Joshua Taylor in sharing their data with me. Finally, I would like to thank Levente Littvay for his patience and insightful comments. Without these contributions this thesis would not have been possible. CEU eTD Collection ii Table of Contents ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... II TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................ III LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................... VII 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 2 PARTY SYSTEMS ................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 What is a Party System? ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Why do they Matter? ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 What is Institutionalisation? ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.4 Party System Institutionalisation ................................................................................................................... 6 2.5 Causes of Party System Institutionalism – The State of the Art .............................................................. 7 DESIGN, DATA, AND HYPOTHESES ...................................................................................... 11 3.1 Mixed-Methods................................................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Operationalisation ............................................................................................................................................ 12 3.3 Dependent Variable .......................................................................................................................................... 13 3.4 Measurement ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.5 Dataset .................................................................................................................................................................. 16 3.6 Independent Variables and Hypotheses ..................................................................................................... 17 CEU eTD Collection 3.6.1 Volatility and Time ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 3.6.2 Volatility and the Economy ...................................................................................................................................... 20 3.6.3 Volatility and Fragmentation ................................................................................................................................... 21 3.6.4 Volatility and Regime Type ...................................................................................................................................... 23 3.6.5 Volatility and Education ............................................................................................................................................ 25 4 RESULTS AND FINDINGS ................................................................................................... 27 4.1 Ranges .................................................................................................................................................................. 28 iii 4.2 Trends over time ............................................................................................................................................... 30 4.3 Volatility in Order ............................................................................................................................................. 34 4.4 Regime Type ....................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.5 Education ............................................................................................................................................................. 37 4.6 Fragmentation .................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.6 Bivariate Correlation Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 38 4.7 Multivariate Regression Analysis ................................................................................................................. 41 4.8 Multi-level Regression Analysis .................................................................................................................... 47 4.9 Discussion............................................................................................................................................................ 49 5 CASE STUDY ..................................................................................................................... 59 6 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 68 CEU eTD Collection iv List of Tables Table.1 – Average volatility by group Table.2 – Volatility ranges by group Table.3 – Average volatility by election number Table.4– Average volatility by election number group 4 Table.5 – Highest average volatility by country Table.6– Lowest average volatility by country Table.7 – Determinants of average electoral volatility Table.8 – Determinants of electoral volatility by single election Table.9 – Determinants of electoral volatility random intercepts model Table.10- Correlations of electoral volatility between elections Table.11 Position of the Parties in Executive and Legislative Office (%) CEU eTD Collection v List of Figures Figure.1 – Average volatility by election number Figure.2 – Average volatility by election number for Groups 1, 2, and 3 Figure.3 – Average volatility by election number Group 4 Figure.4 – Average volatility by election number Group 4b Figure.5 – Average school life expectancy (years) Figure.6 – Average ENP Figure.7 – GDP per capita and electoral volatility scatter plot Figure.8 - Cooks distance for model 1 Figure.9 - Party shares Rio de Janeiro delegation to Chamber of Deputies 1982 – 2002 CEU eTD Collection vi List of Abbreviations ARENA - Aliança Renovadora Nacional MDB – Movimento Democrático Brasileiro NIMD – Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy PRN – Partido da Reconstrução Nacional PSD – Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira PTB - Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro CEU eTD Collection vii 1 Introduction Political parties play
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