A Calculated Risk and Quantitative Skills
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CAREERS AUSTRALIA Plan to attract international UNITED STATES Survey shows pay rise and NATUREJOBS For the latest career students and researchers unveiled p.273 perks for many university executives p.273 listings and advice www.naturejobs.com development, he says. “Some of our best PhD students are going to the insurance and finance sector, principally for modelling purposes.” Opportunities in risk analysis fall mainly into three overlapping categories: the natural IKON IMAGES/CORBIS IKON and physical sciences; engineering; and social sciences. Engineers assess infrastructure and sometimes inform policy decisions; social scientists often study how best to communi- cate risk. Natural and physical scientists from geologists and meteorologists to mathemati- cians and physicists study the origins, move- ment and potential impacts of natural hazards. They often produce data-heavy models, maps, reports and briefs. The resulting visual presen- tations of risk may layer details such as a city’s utility networks and roads onto a map of its flood-prone areas and a plot of the economic productivity of different zones as a function of their geography. These analyses help clients to estimate potential losses and to refine their prevention and mitigation measures. BLURRING THE BOUNDARIES A career in natural-hazards management and mitigation often means collaborating on multi NATURAL DISASTERS disciplinary teams that may include mete- orologists, economists and civil engineers. Employers say that all roles require a solid foundation in statistics and good analytical A calculated risk and quantitative skills. Some firms build web- sites to help their clients to visualize risk, so software-development experience and famili- Scientists and engineers with an analytical bent are sought- arity with tools such as geographic information after in natural-hazard risk assessment. systems can come in handy. And candidates must be able to dispense with jargon and explain what a risk might mean to a lay audi- BY BRYN NELSON As these and other global threats weigh ence. Employers are increasingly looking for heavily on governments, corporations and analysts from all disciplines with at least basic ustralian meteorologists introduced charities, demand is spiking for scientists and skills in risk communication, a growing area two new colours to their weather maps engineers in the multidisciplinary field of of study among sociologists and behavioural this January, during the country’s hot- natural-hazards risk analysis. Experts in the psychologists (see ‘Reaching out — carefully’). Atest summer on record. Two years earlier, east- field, which focuses on how to predict, prevent Jobs are particularly abundant at reinsurance ern Australia saw its worst flooding in decades and limit damage from natural disasters, are companies, which insure other insurers to help following its wettest recorded December. Last finding jobs in insurance, agriculture, finance, them to limit their losses in the event of a dis- autumn, Superstorm Sandy pummelled the infrastructure, construction, humanitarian aid aster. Reto Schneider, head of emerging risk US east coast, after devastating drought and and public policy. management at Swiss Re, a global reinsurance wildfires scorched a huge swathe of the cen- “There’s a broad spectrum of the public and company based in Zurich, cites a long list of tral states. Within the past three years, there private sector that needs planning, that needs positions suitable for experts on disasters such have also been a catastrophic earthquake and expertise, that needs a way of communicating as floods, droughts, windstorms and earth- tsunami in Japan, epic flooding in Thailand the risks to effect policy,” says Arthur Lerner- quakes, or for geographers and mathematicians and East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years. In Lam, deputy-director of Columbia University’s who can do in-house modelling and mapping. a 2012 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Pali- For example, Swiss Re has hired several scien- Climate Change concluded that climate change sades, New York. “Good students, we’re finding, tists from the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow has already increased the frequency of some are having no trouble finding positions in those and Avalanche Research in Davos to assist in extreme weather events globally, and that more areas.” Particularly fruitful areas of study include risk analysis for landslides and avalanches. are on the way. Earth sciences, physical sciences and sustainable Consultancies that specialize in mapping or 14 MARCH 2013 | VOL 495 | NATURE | 271 © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved CAREERS DANGER DEPICTED Risk analysts develop visual representations of risk levels, such as this 2013 map from Maplecroft in Bath, UK, which shows the cities most vulnerable to the eects of climate-related natural disasters and rising sea levels. Low risk Extreme risk SOURCE: MAPLECROFT City (ranked) Category 1 Dhaka, Bangladesh Extreme 2 Manila, Philippines Extreme Manila Mumbai 3 Bangkok, Thailand Extreme Ho Chi Minh City Chennai 4 Yangon, Myanmar Extreme Lagos Kolkata 5 Jakarta, Indonesia Extreme Dhaka 6 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Extreme Yangon 7 Kolkata, India Extreme Bangkok 8 Mumbai, India High Jakarta 9 Chennai, India High 10 Lagos, Nigeria High modelling a client’s vulnerability to a range and parts from Southeast Asia, a region prone designing buildings, infrastructure, contin- of catastrophes are also big employers. to natural disasters. Thailand’s catastrophic gency plans and communication systems that Schneider earned a PhD in immunology monsoon flooding in 2011, in particular, deliv- allow companies or communities to withstand and did two postdoctoral fellowships before ered a sobering wake-up call about the danger a disaster or bounce back quickly. Sustainability his search for a stable, family-friendly career of concentrating resources in a single location. experts help clients to make durable and cost- led him to Swiss Re 18 years ago. The com- Car and computer-hardware manufacturers effective decisions about infrastructure, devel- pany was searching for what it now calls high were inundated: Honda and Toyota paused opment and other long-term investments in the potentials: clever and motivated academics production and hard-drive prices soared by face of changing economic, climatic and politi- who can be trained in an internal graduate pro- nearly 30%. Analysis of a company’s busi- cal conditions (see Nature 494, 507–509; 2013). gramme. Schneider’s current work in analysing ness practice to identify high-risk locations or Gauging the integrity of infrastructure the financial impact of disasters is far removed methods may help it to avoid the most vulner- threatened by weather and seismic events is from immunology, but he sees parallels between able sites or to safeguard against lengthy delays providing another big opportunity for scien- the immune system and the complex systems in re-establishing its supply chain. tists and engineers. For example, many of the that he now studies, and says that his analytical Experts in sustainability and resiliency 3,000 levees and 700 dams overseen by the US skills are an asset. “Scientists might overlook it are also finding work. Resiliency refers to Army Corps of Engineers are reaching the end or ignore it because they have never heard about it or they can’t imagine that the insurance indus- try is offering something to them,” he says. “But COMMUNICATION SKILLS after close to 20 years working in this industry, I must say that it’s a great target.” Reaching out — carefully Helen Hodge is head of maps and indices at Maplecroft, a consultancy in Bath, UK, that Demand is rising for scientists who and still be surprised the minute you produces maps, indices, scorecards and other can not only assess risk but also actually take them out in the field and test visual representations of risk in ten major cat- clearly communicate it. “A lot of risk them,” says Granger Morgan, head of the egories (see ‘Danger depicted’). She estimates communication is trying to understand how department. Even the best risk analysis in that half of her firm’s recent recruits have sci- people make decisions about risks, how the world may be useless, he says, if it is not entific backgrounds. She has a master’s degree they should make decisions about risks, communicated in a way that improves how in geography and worked as an environmental how you help them make better decisions people perceive and respond to risk, and scientist before she started modelling natural about risks,” says George Gray, president that supports good decision-making. catastrophes in London’s insurance industry of the 2,000-member Society for Risk There is particular demand for scientists and eventually joined Maplecroft. Analysis in McLean, Virginia, an international who can distil sophisticated information At Maplecroft, scientists are particularly organization of academic, government and into understandable advice that influences well represented in risk analysis for natural private-sector professionals. behaviour — the likelihood of a levee hazards, climate change and environment, The engineering and public-policy withstanding a storm surge and how areas in which the 90-employee firm is scaling department at Carnegie Mellon University that affects a city’s evacuation routes, up its work. The expansion, says Hodge, is the in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, includes for example — says Eric Halpin, special