A Calculated Risk and Quantitative Skills

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CAREERS AUSTRALIA Plan to attract international UNITED STATES Survey shows pay rise and NATUREJOBS For the latest career students and researchers unveiled p.273 perks for many university executives p.273 listings and advice www.naturejobs.com

development, he says. “Some of our best PhD students are going to the insurance and finance sector, principally for modelling purposes.” Opportunities in risk analysis fall mainly into three overlapping categories: the natural IKON IMAGES/CORBIS IKON and physical sciences; engineering; and social sciences. Engineers assess infrastructure and sometimes inform policy decisions; social scientists often study how best to communicate risk. Natural and physical scientists from geologists and meteorologists to mathematicians and physicists study the origins, move- ment and potential impacts of natural hazards. They often produce data-heavy models, maps, reports and briefs. The resulting visual presen- tations of risk may layer details such as a city’s utility networks and roads onto a map of its flood-prone areas and a plot of the economic productivity of different zones as a function of their geography. These analyses help clients to estimate potential losses and to refine their prevention and mitigation measures. BLURRING THE BOUNDARIES A career in natural-hazards management and mitigation often means collaborating on multi NATURAL DISASTERS disciplinary teams that may include meteorologists, economists and civil engineers. Employers say that all roles require a solid foundation in statistics and good analytical A calculated risk and quantitative skills. Some firms build web- sites to help their clients to visualize risk, so software-development experience and famili- Scientists and engineers with an analytical bent are sought- arity with tools such as geographic information after in natural-hazard risk assessment. systems can come in handy. And candidates must be able to dispense with jargon and explain what a risk might mean to a lay audi- BY BRYN NELSON As these and other global threats weigh ence. Employers are increasingly looking for heavily on governments, corporations and analysts from all disciplines with at least basic ustralian meteorologists introduced charities, demand is spiking for scientists and skills in risk communication, a growing area two new colours to their weather maps engineers in the multidisciplinary field of of study among sociologists and behavioural this January, during the country’s hot- natural-hazards risk analysis. Experts in the psychologists (see ‘Reaching out — carefully’). Atest summer on record. Two years earlier, east- field, which focuses on how to predict, prevent Jobs are particularly abundant at reinsurance ern Australia saw its worst flooding in decades and limit damage from natural disasters, are companies, which insure other insurers to help following its wettest recorded December. Last finding jobs in insurance, agriculture, finance, them to limit their losses in the event of a dis- autumn, Superstorm Sandy pummelled the infrastructure, construction, humanitarian aid aster. Reto Schneider, head of emerging risk US east coast, after devastating drought and and public policy. management at Swiss Re, a global reinsurance wildfires scorched a huge swathe of the cen- “There’s a broad spectrum of the public and company based in Zurich, cites a long list of tral states. Within the past three years, there private sector that needs planning, that needs positions suitable for experts on disasters such have also been a catastrophic earthquake and expertise, that needs a way of communicating as floods, droughts, windstorms and earth- tsunami in Japan, epic flooding in Thailand the risks to effect policy,” says Arthur Lerner- quakes, or for geographers and mathematicians and East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years. In Lam, deputy-director of Columbia University’s who can do in-house modelling and mapping. a 2012 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Pali- For example, Swiss Re has hired several scien- Climate Change concluded that climate change sades, New York. “Good students, we’re finding, tists from the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow has already increased the frequency of some are having no trouble finding positions in those and Avalanche Research in Davos to assist in extreme weather events globally, and that more areas.” Particularly fruitful areas of study include risk analysis for landslides and avalanches. are on the way. Earth sciences, physical sciences and sustainable Consultancies that specialize in mapping or

DANGER DEPICTED Risk analysts develop visual representations of risk levels, such as this 2013 map from Maplecroft in Bath, UK, which shows the cities most vulnerable to the eects of climate-related natural disasters and rising sea levels.

Low risk Extreme risk SOURCE: MAPLECROFT

City (ranked) Category

1 Dhaka, Bangladesh Extreme

2 Manila, Philippines Extreme Manila Mumbai 3 Bangkok, Thailand Extreme Ho Chi Minh City Chennai 4 Yangon, Myanmar Extreme Lagos Kolkata 5 Jakarta, Indonesia Extreme Dhaka 6 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Extreme Yangon 7 Kolkata, India Extreme Bangkok 8 Mumbai, India High Jakarta 9 Chennai, India High 10 Lagos, Nigeria High

modelling a client’s vulnerability to a range and parts from Southeast Asia, a region prone designing buildings, infrastructure, contin- of catastrophes are also big employers. to natural disasters. Thailand’s catastrophic gency plans and communication systems that Schneider earned a PhD in immunology monsoon flooding in 2011, in particular, deliv- allow companies or communities to withstand and did two postdoctoral fellowships before ered a sobering wake-up call about the danger a disaster or bounce back quickly. Sustainability his search for a stable, family-friendly career of concentrating resources in a single location. experts help clients to make durable and cost- led him to Swiss Re 18 years ago. The com- Car and computer-hardware manufacturers effective decisions about infrastructure, devel- pany was searching for what it now calls high were inundated: Honda and Toyota paused opment and other long-term investments in the potentials: clever and motivated academics production and hard-drive prices soared by face of changing economic, climatic and politi- who can be trained in an internal graduate pro- nearly 30%. Analysis of a company’s busi- cal conditions (see Nature 494, 507–509; 2013). gramme. Schneider’s current work in analysing ness practice to identify high-risk locations or Gauging the integrity of infrastructure the financial impact of disasters is far removed methods may help it to avoid the most vulner- threatened by weather and seismic events is from immunology, but he sees parallels between able sites or to safeguard against lengthy delays providing another big opportunity for scien- the immune system and the complex systems in re-establishing its supply chain. tists and engineers. For example, many of the that he now studies, and says that his analytical Experts in sustainability and resiliency 3,000 levees and 700 dams overseen by the US skills are an asset. “Scientists might overlook it are also finding work. Resiliency refers to Army Corps of Engineers are reaching the end or ignore it because they have never heard about it or they can’t imagine that the insurance industry is offering something to them,” he says. “But COMMUNICATION SKILLS after close to 20 years working in this industry, I must say that it’s a great target.” Reaching out — carefully Helen Hodge is head of maps and indices at Maplecroft, a consultancy in Bath, UK, that Demand is rising for scientists who and still be surprised the minute you produces maps, indices, scorecards and other can not only assess risk but also actually take them out in the field and test visual representations of risk in ten major cat- clearly communicate it. “A lot of risk them,” says Granger Morgan, head of the egories (see ‘Danger depicted’). She estimates communication is trying to understand how department. Even the best risk analysis in that half of her firm’s recent recruits have sci- people make decisions about risks, how the world may be useless, he says, if it is not entific backgrounds. She has a master’s degree they should make decisions about risks, communicated in a way that improves how in geography and worked as an environmental how you help them make better decisions people perceive and respond to risk, and scientist before she started modelling natural about risks,” says George Gray, president that supports good decision-making. catastrophes in London’s insurance industry of the 2,000-member Society for Risk There is particular demand for scientists and eventually joined Maplecroft. Analysis in McLean, Virginia, an international who can distil sophisticated information At Maplecroft, scientists are particularly organization of academic, government and into understandable advice that influences well represented in risk analysis for natural private-sector professionals. behaviour — the likelihood of a levee hazards, climate change and environment, The engineering and public-policy withstanding a storm surge and how areas in which the 90-employee firm is scaling department at Carnegie Mellon University that affects a city’s evacuation routes, up its work. The expansion, says Hodge, is the in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, includes for example — says Eric Halpin, special result of demand from clients such as banks, experimental psychologists who focus assistant for dam and levee safety at the US insurance companies, major corporations on developing, testing and gauging the Army Corps of Engineers in Washington DC. and national and international humanitarian response to risk-related messages aimed “It’s a balance of being a good-enough groups. “We’re growing at a good rate,” she says. at policy-makers and the public. “You can communicator, saying, ‘This is why you Commercial clients are increasingly wary of sit in your office until the cows come home, should care about the risk,’ without throwing major disruptions in their supply chains, espe- trying to dream up appropriate messages, a whole community into panic.” B.N. cially as many boost their reliance on supplies

272 | NATURE | VOL 495 | 14 MARCH 2013 © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved CAREERS of their typical 50-year life expectancy, and papers and workshop reports and enlisted a AUSTRALIA the costly process of shoring up or replacing small army of academic, governmental and them could take decades. “It’s a long-term institutional experts to write and review the Foreign students wanted problem, so we need to make sure that we report, which calls for decision-makers world- Hoping to boost Australia’s economy by have the right people around 20 years from wide to increase their reliance on science, bringing in more international students now to deal with this,” says Eric Halpin, spe- technology and risk-assessment methods to and researchers, the nation’s government cial assistant for dam and levee safety for the help to reduce the impact of disasters. is adopting recommendations from corps in Washington DC. its International Education Advisory Halpin needs scientists and engineers who SLOW GROWTH IN ACADEMIA Council. On 27 February, the council can assess more than just the logistics of build- Because risk analysis often spans disciplines published Australia — Educating Globally, ing and maintaining dams and levees. They and tends to be highly applied, academic a report that outlines a 5-year plan also need to understand how decisions about positions are the hardest to find. However, for reaching Australia’s international- infrastructure may affect the long-term well- a modest corps of academic sites focuses at enrolment goals. The number of being of a local economy and population. least in part on natural hazards; most, but not international students at universities and “What we’re finding out right now is that all, are in the United States and Europe. Some other institutions in Australia could grow engineers tend to look at every problem as an of the best known established sites include by some 30% by 2020, to 520,000 students, opportunity to build something new, a struc- the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre at Uni- as a result of the council’s plan, the report tural solution, and many times the solutions versity College London; the Disaster Preven- predicts; it estimates that this would add are not structural,” he says. “Maybe it’s manag- tion Research Institute at Kyoto University in about Aus$19 billion (US$19.5 billion) ing your consequences better through build- Japan; the Center for Disaster Management to the country’s economy and provide ing codes, or smart economic development or and Risk Reduction Technology in Potsdam, extra support for research positions. The evacuation plans rather than a bigger levee.” Germany; and the Engineering and Public recommendations include streamlining Policy department at Carnegie Mellon. That visa requirements and regulations for RISKY POLICIES list is now expanding, with centres such as international academics and students; In the aftermath of devastating storms such the Cabot Institute at the University of Bris- encouraging international research as Sandy and 2005’s Hurricane Katrina, tol, UK, opened in 2010, and the Center for collaborations and partnerships; and and amid growing concern over the coastal Risk Governance at Tsinghua University in offering incentives for top academics and impacts of global warming, government offi- Beijing, launched this year. doctoral students to come to Australia. cials around the world are debating when to Despite the growing options for academ- Michael Chaney, chairman of the advisory rebuild barriers and when to pursue other ics and students, employers tend to agree council, says that the government is risk-reduction strategies (see D. Moynihan that few programmes prepare scientists for already implementing specific strategies Nature 495, 7; 2013). The increasingly urgent the multidisciplinary, holistic and hands-on to increase numbers of international discussions are opening doors for scientists responsibilities of applied risk analysis. Appli- scientists, such as establishing high- and engineers versed in public policy. cants may have to actively seek out practical paying contracts for research posts. Frauke Hoss, who is doing a PhD in engi- experience on their own, as Hodge did in the neering and public policy at Carnegie Mel- insurance industry or as others have done in lon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is organizations that regularly assess disasters, UNITED STATES German but trained in political science and such as one of the many national Red Cross hydraulic engineering in the Netherlands. and Red Crescent societies. Pay rise for presidents She hopes to pursue an advisory role with Depending on the employer, recruits US university presidents and academic the European Union or the Dutch or Ger- may receive extensive in-house training officers, including deans, provosts and man government, combining her expertise that directs their expertise to applied ends chancellors, saw their pay increase by in public policy and flood-control engineer- — Swiss Re, for example, sometimes trains a median of 2.3% in 2012, more than ing. Hoss says that infrastructure decisions employees in financial modelling, and the one-third above the inflation rate of are affected by geography in much of Europe. US Army Corps of Engineers teaches them 1.7%, according to a survey. The College “We live so densely that you will be building how to incorporate skills beyond their nor- and University Professional Association in an area where there’s flooding potential,” mal disciplines. “We hire some straight-up for Human Resources in Knoxville, she says. “And as your economy grows, you scientists in hydrology and geology and geo- Tennessee, polled 1,251 institutions for have more value that you have to keep drier.” morphology; we hire some straight-up social its 2012–13 Administrators in Higher In the Netherlands, where 35% of the popu- scientists, particularly in the areas of life loss Education Salary Survey, published on lation lives on flood-prone land, officials are and vulnerability; and we hire some straight- 25 February. The median pay for the supplementing flood barriers with new and up engineers,” says Halpin. “And not one of president of an institution that grants larger spillways and reservoirs as more natural them comes to the table with all of the skills. doctorates rose by 2% for the year, to ways to control inundations. Although unsure We build it in after they get on board.” US$402,000. Deans of biological and life of her own prospects in helping to formulate The aim is to produce what Halpin calls sciences at doctoral institutions also saw policies, Hoss thinks that she is on the right a natural-hazards “super generalist” who a pay rise: their median compensation track with her dual focus. “There will always is well versed in the application of multiple climbed by 3% to $225,000 in 2012. be demand, because there are very few engi- disciplines to real-world problem solving. “If Executive benefits included not only neers who are interested in policy,” she says. you have the right foundation in one area and pay but also housing for 47.3% of That demand is relevant across Europe. The you’re willing to learn about other areas, and university presidents, a car or car UK government’s Foresight programme, for you’re willing to create some of the education allowance for 51.6% and membership example, relied heavily on natural-sciences in the workplace rather than in school, then of a club such as a gym or airline for and public-policy expertise in crafting its 139- that’s the key,” he says. ■ 31.6%, the survey says. More than one- page report Reducing Risks of Future Disasters, quarter of presidents received deferred released last November. The programme com- Bryn Nelson is a freelance writer based in compensation such as pensions or stock missioned 18 independently peer-reviewed Seattle, Washington. options.