Warren Harding and Presidential Leadership: The 1920s Economic Boom and the Politics of Normalcy April 5-8, 2018 Paper presented at the 2018 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference in Chicago, IL By Mark Zachary Taylor Associate Professor School of Public Policy Georgia Institute of Technology 685 Cherry Marietta Street Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 (FedEx/UPS Zip Code: 30318) Phone: (404) 385-4571 Fax: (404) 894-0504 contact:
[email protected] ABSTRACT Can the President affect the nation’s short-run economic performance? If so, then by which mechanisms? Quantitative research has produced disparate, conflicting, and sometimes biased answers to these questions. Therefore, this paper presents a qualitative analysis of the administration of Warren Harding. During his brief time in office, Harding confronted the second worst economic contraction in the twentieth century, massive labor unrest, historic deficits and debts, and a federal government in chaos. Yet, within months of Harding’s inauguration, this downward spiral had been reversed, and by the time he died in late summer 1923, the hard times were rapidly fading from memory; the “roaring twenties” would soon be under way. What role, if any, did Harding play in this swift recovery? Mocked in his own time as bungling and simple-minded, the evidence instead suggests that Harding was a skilled political leader who helped usher in a decade of unprecedented economic prosperity. A conservative who rarely took inflexible stands, Harding guided Americans back to the calm of “normalcy” after the upheavals of World War I and the Wilson administration. In fact, Harding saw Wilson as an incompetent autocrat, and himself as the antidote to years of wayward policy experimentation.