From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since Wwii
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Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina
マーク色指定C10M100Y100 JBICI Research Paper No. 27 Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina January 2004 JBIC Institute Japan Bank for International Cooperation JBICI Research Paper No.27 Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina January 2004 JBIC Institute Japan Bank for International Cooperation JBICI Research Paper No. 27 Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) Published in January 2004 © 2004 Japan Bank for International Cooperation All rights reserved. This Research Paper is based on the findings and discussions of the JBIC. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the JBIC. No part of this Research Paper may be reproduced in any form without the express permission of the publisher. For further information please contact the Planning and Coordination Division of our Institute. Foreword About two years have passed since Argentina faced the onset of what Dr. Cline calls the 3D economic collapse: default, devaluation, and depression. In 2002 the country’s GDP contracted by 11 per cent, the worst on its record. Despite the substantial depreciation of the peso, however, hyperinflation was successfully avoided. And more recently the economy has shown a substantial recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, there has been no significant progress in the banking sector reform, which is listed by Dr. Cline as a key challenge for immediate future. Furthermore, the prospects remain opaque for the sovereign debt restructuring, which Dr. Cline deems crucial for reestablishing Argentina’s credit reputation and eventual capacity to return to credit markets. After the introduction chapter, the Chapter 2 of this paper surveys the arguments on the main cause of the 3D collapse. -
Vulnerability and Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries
Discussion Paper I CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy DP-40-2019 Emerging Markets: Vulnerability and contagion risks... Fragile vs. anti-fragile countries Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Emerging Markets: Vulnerability and contagion risks... Fragile vs. anti-fragile countries*/** PHILIPPE Abstract ITHURBIDE Global Head his article is aimed at analysing contagion of Research Twithin the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies with the collaboration of to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to MICKAËL benefit from it. BELLAÏCHE Senior Analyst, We first analyse nine very different cases of Global Research contagion (crises and sharp declines without crisis, with different triggers, with different contagion effects) which could be identified in the emerging world over the last 40 years: i) the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980’s, ii) the Mexican crisis of 1994, iii) the Asian Crisis of 1997, iv) the Russian Crisis of 1998, v) the Brazilian crisis of 1999, vi) the Argentine crisis of 1999-2001, vii) Fed tapering of QE in 2013, viii) the “boom and burst”crisis in Chinese stock markets in 2015-2016, and ix) restrictive trade and monetary policies in the United States in 2018. (*) A first version of this article has been prepared for an Amundi advisory board meeting (24 October 2018). The author wishes to thank all participants for their valuable comments. (**) This discussion paper is part of a pack of 3 articles on EM economies and EM markets. One of the three deals with the typology of EM economies (how to discriminate EM countries and EM markets), and another one deals with the hard and soft power of EM countries and with the question of leadership (US vs. -
Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Countries. an Application to the Argentine New Development Pattern
Panigo, Demian Tupac; Chena, Pablo Ignacio Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Countries. An Application to the Argentine New Development Pattern Revue de la régulation 2012, nro. 11 Panigo, D.; Chena, P. (2012). Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Countries. An Application to the Argentine New Development Pattern. Revue de la régulation (11). En Memoria Académica. Disponible en: http://www.memoria.fahce.unlp.edu.ar/art_revistas/pr.11195/pr.11195.pdf Información adicional en www.memoria.fahce.unlp.edu.ar Esta obra está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Cou... https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/9705 Revue de la régulation Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs Maison des Sciences de l'Homme - Paris Nord 11 | 1er semestre / Spring 2012 : Les capitalismes en Amérique latine. De l'économique au politique Dossier : Les capitalismes en Amérique latine. De l'économique au politique Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Countries. An Application to the Argentine New Development Pattern Modèles macroéconomiques régulationistes pour des pays émergeant. Une application au nouveau mode du développement argentin Modelos macroeconómicos regulacionistas para países en desarrollo. Una aplicación al nuevo modelo de desarrollo argentino DEMIAN TUPAC PANIGO ET PABLO IGNACIO CHENA Résumés English Français Español In this paper we present a regulationst structural macroeconometric model (RSMM) to develop economic forecasts and examine different policy outcomes in Argentina. RSMM main characteristics involve cumulative causation dynamics where income distribution, macroeconomic volatility, credit rationing and productive heterogeneity conjugates to obtain a new instrument to precisely examine key macroeconomic and social variables. -
Pdfthe Argentine Experience
What Lessons Can Be Learned from Recent Financial Crises? The Argentine Experience Pedro Pou Unfortunately, Argentina has an abundant history of financial crises. The only advantage I can see from this painful experience is that it means that occasionally I get invitations to extremely interesting events such as this one, and I must congratulate the organizers for putting together such an excellent program in such a beautiful place. I will just mention three episodes of Argentina’s recent financial experience and try to draw from them the main lessons as I see them: (1) the banking crisis of 1982, (2) the hyperinflationary experience of 1989-90, and (3) the banking crisis of 1995. These three crises are so different, that understanding them should aid in our understanding of financial crises in general. The 1980-82 crisis might be referred to as a crisis of “generalized moral hazard” and was similar to the 1989 crisis in that they were both clearly crises of solvency. However, the main difference was that while the 1980-82 crisis was due to the insolvency of the private sector, the 1989 crisis was due to government insolvency. Finally, the 1995, or “tequila” crisis, was a totally different kind of crisis, since it was a crisis of liquidity not of solvency. The 1980-82 banking crisis: generalized moral hazard It has been suggested by many that the crisis of 1982 was provoked 141 142 Pedro Pou in large part due to inconsistent macroeconomic policies applied in the period before the crisis and, in particular, to inconsistent fiscal and exchange rate policies.1 However, although the macroeconomic policy stance was cer- tainly a contributory factor, Fernández (1983) has argued forcefully that the problems were amplified by the inherent instability of the financial system. -
Neoliberal Globalization and the Argentine Great Depression: Deconstructing the Discourses of the IMF and Private Finance
Introduction Neoliberal globalization and the Argentine Great Depression: deconstructing the discourses of the IMF and private finance By Christian Hernandez A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Political Science and International Studies College of Social Sciences The University of Birmingham November 2017 Word count: 79,734 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Abstract Despite the waning prominence of the vast and diverse literature on globalization, the debate remains unresolved, as globalization’s logics continue to buttress neoliberal economics (Hay & Smith, 2013; Smith, 2005). As Cameron and Palan posited thirteen years ago, “the spread of globalization in practice continues unabated” (2004). Of importance herein is how neoliberal globalization is understood, as a concept and in material terms (Marsh, 2009), as well as how it has spread spatiotemporally (Peck & Tickell, 2012). Contributing to constructivist globalization scholarship, this thesis argues that ideas are central to how “material reality” or “globalization in practice” is shaped and understood (Schmidt, 2013). Henceforth, it interrogates the space for alternatives to globalization’s logics by focusing on the ways ideas shape policy and normative understandings by (respectively) examining the IMF-Argentine consultations (1976-2006), and the discourses of the financial press (1997-2006). -
Documentos De Trabajo
UNIVERSIDAD DEL CEMA Buenos Aires Argentina Serie DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO Área: Economía e Historia A BRIEF HISTORY OF HYPERINFLATION IN ARGENTINA Emilio Ocampo Abril 2021 Nro. 787 www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/doc_trabajo.html UCEMA: Av. Córdoba 374, C1054AAP Buenos Aires, Argentina ISSN 1668-4575 (impreso), ISSN 1668-4583 (en línea) Editor: Jorge M. Streb; asistente editorial: Valeria Dowding [email protected] A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina Emilio Ocampo* Abstract A fiscal deficit of 8.5% of GDP, limited access to credit locally and internationally, country risk premiums at default levels and money supply growing at 80% annually, have led some analysts to predict that Argentina might be heading into a ―3-digit modern hyperinflation.‖ Although this opinion is not widely held, the consensus inflation forecast for 2021 is 47%, a level significantly below any definition of hyperinflation but high by global standards (above the 98th percentile). Even more worrisome, over the last decade inflation has shown a persistent upward trend and since January 2019 has averaged 45%. Given all of the above, it is worthwhile investigating when Argentina experienced it and why. This paper attempts to answer the first part of this question. According to a widely accepted view there was only one hyperinflation between 1989 and 1990. This paper argues that Argentina experienced four hyperinflationary episodes that were part of a long-term cycle that started in 1945. Keywords: Argentina, Inflation, Extreme Inflation, Hyperinflation. JEL Codes: E31, N16 Resumen Un déficit fiscal de 8,5% del PBI, acceso limitado al crédito local e internacional, una prima de riesgo país que implica una alta probabilidad de cesación de pagos y una oferta monetaria que crece a una tasa anual de 80%, han llevado a algunos analistas a sostener que la Argentina se encamina a una "hiperinflación moderna de 3 dígitos". -
World Bank Document
ReportNo. 15402-AR Argentina The Convertibility Plan: Public Disclosure Authorized Assessmentand Potential Prospects (In Two Volumes) Volume l: The Main Report July12, 1996 CountryOperations Unit II CountryDepartment I Latin Americaand the CaribbeanRegional Office Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Q)ocu*nntof theWorld Ba4nk Currcncy Equivalents Currency Unit: Peso (As of July 1996) US$ 1 = ARG$1 Fiscal Year January 1 - December 31 Glossary of Acronyms APC State Employment Agencies' Program ATN Treasury Grants B.A. Buenos Aires BCRA Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina BHN Housing Bank BIS Bank of International Settlements BOCON Government Debt Consolidation Bonds BONEX Dollar denominated Treasury Bonds CET Common External Tariff CGE Computerized General Equilibrium Model CPI Consumer Price Index EFF Extended Fund Facility ENTel National Telecommunication Enterprise EPH National Household Survey FDI Foreign Direct Investment FEDEI National Electric Development Fund FIEL Foundation for Latin American Economic Research FONAVI National Housing Fund GATT General Agreement on Trade & Tariffs GDP Gross Domestic Product HUBN Households with Unsatisfied Basic Needs IMF International Monetarn Fund INDEC National Statistics & Census institute LAIA Latin American Integration Association LFP Labor Force Participation LIBOR London Interbank Offer Rate MERCOSUR Southern Cone Common Market NTC National Trade Commission OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development PAYG Pay as you go PEP Partial Subsidy for Private Employment PPF Production Possibility Frontier PRENO Public Sector Social Program PROAS Public Sector Social Program PROEDIS Public Sector Social Program PRONOPAS Staging Study Abroad PYMES Small and Medium Enterprises QR Quantitative Restriction SEGBA Water Company SIGEN Government Internal Auditors TBILL Treasury Bill TFP Total Factor Productivity USA United States of America VAT Value Added Tax WTO World Trade Organization YPF Oil Company COUNTRYDATA -ARGENTINA AREA POPULATION DENSITY 2766.9thous. -
Working Fictions of Money: the Making of Currency (Dis)Trust in Argentina (1880-2020)
Working fictions of money: the making of currency (dis)trust in Argentina (1880-2020) Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität zu Köln 2020 presented by Guadalupe Moreno from General Roca, Río Negro, Argentina First reviewer: Prof. Dr. Jens Beckert Second reviewer: Prof. Dr. Pablo Nemiña Date of oral defense: 18.11.2020 To my father Jaime and my sister Florencia, without whose unconditional love and constant support this thesis would not exist. To the living memory of my mother Adriana. To all those who have themselves gone through a monetary crisis, in the hope that this work contributes to alleviating their misfortune. Table of contents Acknowledgments vii 1. Introduction 1 2. What is money, and why do we trust it? 6 What is trust? 7 What is distrust? 15 Money and trust 17 Money and trust within mainstream economics 18 Sociopolitical approaches to money and trust 28 Money and trust within sociology and anthropology 36 Trust and the working fictions of money 45 (Dis)believing money: the logics of distrust 53 3. Reshaping value: the transformation of money during the 20th century 58 The value of money from the gold standard to Bretton Woods (1875-1944) 62 The Bretton Woods agreements and the US dollar supremacy (1936-1960) 66 The fall of the Bretton Woods international monetary system (1960-1973) 72 The international monetary system after Bretton Woods (1973-2020) 75 The monetary reality in Latin America after Bretton Woods (1973-2000) 83 4. One hundred -
Documentos De Trabajo
UNIVERSIDAD DEL CEMA Buenos Aires Argentina Serie DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO Área: Economía COMPARATIVE DYNAMICS WITH FISCAL DOMINANCE. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ARGENTINA 2016-2019 Roque B. Fernández Abril 2020 Nro. 723 www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/doc_trabajo.html UCEMA: Av. Córdoba 374, C1054AAP Buenos Aires, Argentina ISSN 1668-4575 (impreso), ISSN 1668-4583 (en línea) Editor: Jorge M. Streb; asistente editorial: Valeria Dowding <[email protected]> 1 Comparative Dynamics with Fiscal Dominance. Empirical Evidence from Argentina 2016-2019 Roque B. Fernández* UCEMA, April 2020 Abstract A DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model is used to report the empirical behavior of the Argentine economy during the administration of the Cambiemos government coalition. Two main aspects have been taken into account: on the one hand, the debate on the economic policy of the 2016-2019 period, and on the other hand the requirement of microeconomic foundations that support the debate and the empirical results. Two alternative macro models are estimated obtaining statistically significant parameters to illuminate confusing aspects of the policy debate, and to help future research on modeling Argentina macro dynamics. The empirical results obtained for Argentina indicate that the small open economy models used in the state-space specification can also be useful for modeling other small open economies that suffer from Fiscal Dominance. * The viewpoints of the author do not necessarily represent the position of the UCEMA. 2 1. Introduction. The main macroeconomic variables of Argentina are analyzed empirically with a time series sample going from December 2015 to December 2019. A total of 49 monthly observations. The first 44 observations are used for estimation and the last 5 observations for evaluation of out of sample predictions based on the events of the economic policy of the period. -
Debt Distress" in Argentina, 1988-89 Public Disclosure Authorized
PolicyResearch WORKING PAPERS CountryOperations Public Disclosure Authorized CountryDepartment IV Latin Americaand the CaribbeanRegion The World Bank May 1992 WPS 902 PublicSector Public Disclosure Authorized "Debt Distress" in Argentina, 1988-89 Public Disclosure Authorized Paul Beckerman Public Disclosure Authorized Efforts to control Argentina's inflation in 1988 and 1989 failed, generating episodes of hyperinflation, largely because the stabi- lization programs drove the public sector into debt "distress." Policy Research Working Papers disseminate the findings of work in progress and encouragethe exchange of ideas among Bark staff and all others interesed in developmentissues.Thesepapers, distributed by theResearch Advisory Staff, carry the names oftheauthors, reflect only theirviews, and should beused and cited accordingly.The findings, intepretations, and conclusions awthe authors'own. Theyshould not be auributed to the Wotld Bank. its Board of Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. Policy Research CountryOperations WPS 902 Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Alexandra Blackhurst, room 16-018, extension 37897 (May 1992, 53 pages). An earlier version of this paper -a product of the Country Operations Division, Country Department IV, Latin America and the Caribbean Region- was published as the Region's Internal Discussion Paper 66, "Public Sector 'Debt Distress' in Argentina's Recent Stabilization Efforts." Under the August 1988 "Primavera" Plan and The Central Bank played a focal role in these the July 1989 "Bunge y Bom" Plan stabilization processes. It issued interest-bearing debt in the programs, the Argentine authorities sought to forms of remunerated bank reserves, "inacces- anchor the price level through an appreciated sible deposits," and Central Bank bills, to absorb real exchange rate, which they sustained through money. -
INFLATION STABILIZATION and NOMINAL ANCHORS This Paper Analyzes the Choice of a Nominal Anchor in Disinflation Programs in Chron
INFLATION STABILIZATION AND NOMINAL ANCHORS GUILLERMO A. CALVO and CARLOS A. VEGH* This paper analyzes the choice of a nominal anchor in disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries. Both theory and evidence suggest several conclusions. (i) The recessionary effects associated with disinflation appear in the early stages ofmoney based programs but only in the late stages of exchange rate-based programs. (ii) Lack of credibility is more disruptive under fixed exchange rates than under floating ex change rates. (iii) Attempting to pursue a disinflationary policy while maintaining a given level of the real exchange rate is likely to be self-defeating. (iv) A high degree of currency substitution favors the exchange rate as the nominal anchor. I. INTRODUCTION Repeated attempts to get rid of the Since the late 1940s, many developing scourge of chronic inflation often have met countries have suffered from chronic infla with only temporary success, and inflation tion. Chronic inflation is characterized by has come back with a vengeance. How high inflation relative to industrial coun ever, Chile, Israel, Mexico, and, more re tries and by persistent inflation (Pazos, cently, Argentina all have succeeded in 1972). Unlike hyperinflation, which lasts bringing inflation below 15 percent per only months and is explosive, chronic in year. More often than not, the failure of flation may last several decades and is rel stabilization plans reflects the absence of atively stable. Harberger (1981) defines a lasting fiscal adjustment. However, even chronic inflation as annual inflation of 20 fiscally sound programs-for instance, the percent or more for at least five consecu Chilean and Uruguayan programs of the tive years. -
Objective of the New Government Depleted, the BCRA Again Expanded Credit Lines
Lehigh Preserve Institutional Repository The Debt Crisis Comstock, Art 1995 Find more at https://preserve.lib.lehigh.edu/ This document is brought to you for free and open access by Lehigh Preserve. It has been accepted for inclusion by an authorized administrator of Lehigh Preserve. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE DEBT CRISIS Art Comstock Introduction which largely reflect the ineffective past politi cal and economic policies of the government. In Aprill982, Argentina declared default on I then analyze the effects of the crisis on the the servicing of its foreign-denominated-debts. Argentine economy and the current attempts This event has been called "one of the most trau to rebuild and restructure. Finally, I examine matic episodes in the history of world financial proposed solutions to the crisis and the poten crises on account of its intensity and length." tial effectiveness of each. (Montanaro, p. 73) Its effects on Argentina and the rest of the world still linger today. Origins of the Argentine Debt Crisis The Argentine debt continues to limit the nation's quest for development. Rather than A financial crisis can be defined as a momen investing in its future, Argentina continually tary lack of liquidity. It is usually caused by the pays for its past spending. Until recently, eco inability of financial institutions to make debt pay nomic progress has been slowed while scarce ments. Then, a "snowballing" effect occurs as resources are sent abroad to pay the debt. In investors panic, removing their funds from the order for Argentina to develop further, a solution system.