China's Civil Nuclear Sector

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China's Civil Nuclear Sector OCCASIONAL PAPER 2102 China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? Edited by Henry D. Sokolski March 2021 Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Copyright © 2021 by Henry D. Sokolski Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Arlington, VA 22209 www.npolicy.org Printed in the United States of America All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writting from the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Cover images, from top left clockwise: 1) China’s first experimental fast breeder reactor under con- truction in Tuoli, China in June 2004; 2) an enlarged satellite image of the demonstration reprocess- ing plant on March 12, 2020, in Jinta, Gansu Province; 3) the People’s Republic of China showcasing new Dong Feng 41 (DF-41 / CSS-X-10) missiles at its 70th anniversary military parade; 4) operators of China National Nuclear Corporation’s (CNNC) large-scale demonstration centrifuge project at the Hanzhun fuel facility in Shaanxi province. China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? Edited by Henry D. Sokolski Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Occasional Paper 2102 March 2021 Series Editor: Henry D. Sokolski Nonproliferation Policy Education Center The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization, is a nonpartisan, educational organization founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues. NPEC educates policymakers, journalists, and university professors about proliferation threats and possible new policies and measures to meet them. For current publications of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, please visit www.npolicy.org. Contents Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................... ii Preface Christopher Ford and Thomas Countryman ................................................................................................1 Introduction: China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? Henry D. Sokolski ........................................................................................................................................3 Chapter 1: How Many Nuclear Warheads China Might Acquire by 2030 Thomas B. Cochran and Henry D. Sokolski ................................................................................................6 Chapter 2: China’s Uranium Enrichment and Plutonium Recycling 2020-2040: Current Practices and Projected Capacities Hui Zhang ..................................................................................................................................................25 Chapter 3: China’s Current Stocks of Separated Plutonium and Possible Growth to 2040 Greg Jones .................................................................................................................................................54 Chapter 4: Projecting Plutonium Stocks to 2040 Frank Von Hippel .......................................................................................................................................65 Chapter 5: Does China Need to Fuel its Power Reactors with Plutonium? David Von Hippel .......................................................................................................................................87 Appendix A: Can the IAEA Safeguard Fuel-Cycle Facilities? The Historical Record Alan J. Kuperman, David Sokolow, Edwin S. Lyman ..............................................................................133 Appendix B: Review: Why Marginal Improvements in Safeguarding Nuclear Fuel-Cycle Facilities Are Unlikely Ever to Be Enough Ryan A. Snyder .........................................................................................................................................150 About the Authors ..................................................................................................................................155 i Acknowledgments This volume of research was supported by grants from the MacArthur Foundation, the Scaife Founda- tion, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the US Department of State’s Bureau of Arms Control Verification and Compliance. Brooke Buskirk is responsible for the volume’s formatting and assembly. The research, of course, would not have been possible without the contributions of the volume’s authors. ii Preface This is an important and worrying report. It is widely known that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons, which at this point even its own diplomats do not much trouble themselves to deny. What is less clear, however, is how fast this build-up is occurring and – most critically – how long and to what level Beijing intends to continue this expansion. This new NPEC Occasional Paper on “China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords?” does not answer those questions. It does, however, provide new insight into the degree to which China’s current trajectory in the civil nuclear arena will have the result of placing enormous additional quantities of weapons-usable plutonium into the hands of the Chinese government as that country moves into large- scale plutonium reprocessing in order to produce fuel for a new generation of plutonium-fueled breeder reactors. The two of us served consecutively as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, and we both for a time additionally fulfilled the responsibilities of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. We have worked long and hard for presidents who could hardly be more different, we support opposing political parties, and we most assuredly disagree about many of the more important issues in American foreign and national security policy today. Yet despite our very different perspectives, we agree – as foreign policy and national security profession- als – that there is essentially nothing good that can be said about the prospect of the PRC acquiring an ad- ditional 1,440 additional kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium from the two “civilian” breeder reactors it is presently constructing – nor about the additional 110 kilograms of plutonium that China could recover by processing material from its small experimental fast breeder reactor. This expanding Chinese reprocessing program is especially problematic, not to mention hypocritical, in light of China’s own oft-expressed security concerns about the very large plutonium stocks still held by its neighbor Japan. After more than 40 years of pursuing the plutonium option for power generation, Japan is still far from making it economically competitive with other nuclear and non-nuclear options, and has accumulated many tons of plutonium, the disposal of which in non-breeder reactors would take decades to accomplish, even assuming its whole reactor fleet still returns online. China claims to see that stockpile as a potential threat, even though Japan would have to work quite hard (as well as break its treaty commit- ments) to convert such material into nuclear weapons, since, thankfully, it lacks both a nuclear weapons production infrastructure and systems for delivering any such weapons to their targets. China, however, lacks neither of those things, and is moreover presently engaged in a large nuclear weapons build-up that U.S. intelligence officials publicly estimate will result in at least a doubling (or more) of the size of Bei- jing’s nuclear arsenal – which today is only a small fraction the size of the U.S. or Russian arsenals – over the course of the next decade. 1 China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? To be sure, there is at present no evidence that China intends to divert its potential new plutonium horde to weapons use, though Beijing continues to be rather conspicuous in its refusal to adopt a moratorium on fissile material production for weapons purposes and has collaborated with Pakistan for many years to pre- vent the U.N. Conference on Disarmament from negotiating a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. Our concern and that of this study is not that Beijing necessarily intends to divert these huge quantities of plutonium to weapons, but that it could do so and might yet choose to – and that China’s civil-nuclear excursion into the “plutonium economy,” an effort that is neither technically necessary nor likely to be economically worthwhile, represents a colossal global security liability. As this report makes clear, if China opted to di- vert its burgeoning civil-nuclear plutonium program to weapons purposes, it could increase the size of its operational nuclear arsenal to a level approximating those of the United States or the Russian Federation. China’s determination to pursue plutonium reprocessing and breeder reactors seems to be driven by its de- sire to dominate the future’s cutting-edge technologies, as part of the Chinese Communist Party’s broader agenda of making the PRC the pre-eminent world power by 2049 – the centennial of the Party’s seizure of power. Most technically capable countries, however, have correctly concluded that fueling fast reac- tors with plutonium is better described as “pipe dream” than “cutting-edge.” As this report demonstrates, creating more plutonium (beyond the c.500 tons humans have created since the 1940s) will not solve the essential problem: plutonium is a product of negative economic value, the very existence of which creates unnecessary
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