Climate System Change, from Global to Local: Lake Winnipeg Watershed
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Reduced Net Methane Emissions Due to Microbial Methane Oxidation in a Warmer Arctic
LETTERS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0734-z Reduced net methane emissions due to microbial methane oxidation in a warmer Arctic Youmi Oh 1, Qianlai Zhuang 1,2,3 ✉ , Licheng Liu1, Lisa R. Welp 1,2, Maggie C. Y. Lau4,9, Tullis C. Onstott4, David Medvigy 5, Lori Bruhwiler6, Edward J. Dlugokencky6, Gustaf Hugelius 7, Ludovica D’Imperio8 and Bo Elberling 8 Methane emissions from organic-rich soils in the Arctic have bacteria (methanotrophs) and the remainder is mostly emitted into been extensively studied due to their potential to increase the atmosphere (Fig. 1a). The methanotrophs in these wet organic the atmospheric methane burden as permafrost thaws1–3. soils may be low-affinity methanotrophs (LAMs) that require However, this methane source might have been overestimated >600 ppm of methane (by moles) for their growth and mainte- without considering high-affinity methanotrophs (HAMs; nance23. But in dry mineral soils, the dominant methanotrophs are methane-oxidizing bacteria) recently identified in Arctic min- high-affinity methanotrophs (HAMs), which can survive and grow 4–7 eral soils . Herein we find that integrating the dynamics of at a level of atmospheric methane abundance ([CH4]atm) of about HAMs and methanogens into a biogeochemistry model8–10 1.8 ppm (Fig. 1b)24. that includes permafrost soil organic carbon dynamics3 leads Quantification of the previously underestimated HAM-driven −1 to the upland methane sink doubling (~5.5 Tg CH4 yr ) north of methane sink is needed to improve our understanding of Arctic 50 °N in simulations from 2000–2016. The increase is equiva- methane budgets. -
Is Rapid Climate Change in the Arctic a Planetary Emergency? Peter Carter, November 2013 Updated 2019
Is Rapid Climate Change in the Arctic a Planetary Emergency? Peter Carter, November 2013 updated 2019. Introduction This paper presents a compelling case, supported by the climate change research, that the combination of: • global inaction on greenhouse gas emissions, • climate system inertias, and • multiple enormous Arctic sources of amplifying feedbacks (covered in this paper) constitutes an extreme-risk planetary emergency, for the survival of civilization, the human race and most life Research on climate change and the Arctic shows that we face a catastrophic risk of uncontrollable, accelerating global warming due to several amplifying feedbacks from enormous feedback sources in the Arctic. These include the Arctic snow/ice-albedo feedback and greenhouse gas feedbacks (methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide). Under global warming, the Arctic is changing far faster than other regions of Earth. Numerous – and extremely large – Arctic sources of amplifying feedbacks are already responding (have been triggered in response) to rapid Arctic warming. These Arctic feedbacks, if not addressed in time (now) and with the appropriate degree of mitigation, can only be expected to accelerate the rate of global warming. They constitute a very large risk of planetary catastrophic consequences, including Arctic greenhouse gas feedback so-called "runaway" chaotic climate disruption / runaway global heating/ hot house Earth. This paper describes global warming positive feedbacks already operant in the Arctic, and explains the large risk of planetary -
Assessing the Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal in Companies' Climate
Net Expectations Assessing the role of carbon dioxide removal in companies’ climate plans. Briefing by Greenpeace UK January 2021 ~ While a few companies plan to deliver CDR Executive in specific projects, many plan to simply purchase credits on carbon markets, summary which have been beset with integrity problems and dubious accounting, even where certified. To stabilise global temperatures at any level – whether 1.5˚C, 2˚C, 3˚C or 5˚C Limits and uncertainties – carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must The IPCC warns that reliance on CDR is a major reach net zero at some point, because risk to humanity’s ability to achieve the Paris goals. of CO2’s long-term, cumulative effect. The uncertainties are not whether mechanisms to remove CO2 “work”: they all work in a laboratory According to the Intergovernmental at least. Rather, it is whether they can be delivered Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), at scale, with sufficient funding and regulation, to store CO2 over the long term without unacceptable limiting warming to 1.5˚C requires net- social and environmental impacts. zero CO2 to be reached by about 2050. To illustrate the need for regulation, the carbon A small proportion of emissions is likely to be dioxide captured by forests is highly dependent on unavoidable and must be offset by carbon dioxide their specific circumstances, including their removal (CDR), such as by tree-planting (afforestation/ species diversity, the prior land use, and future reforestation) or by technological approaches like risks to the forest (such as fires or pests). In some bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) cases, forests and BECCS can increase rather than or direct air carbon capture with storage (DACCS). -
Working Towards a Just Peace in the Middle East
KAIROS Policy Briefing Papers are written to help inform public debate on key domestic and foreign policy issues No. 41 April 2015 Hopeful Signs, Alarming Realities on the Road to Climate Justice By John Dillon Ecological Economy Program Coordinator “Climate change for us is a matter of life or death.”1 waiting for the Paris conference to make decisions These stark words were spoken by Rev. Tafue Lu- that, in most cases, will take effect only in 2020. sama, General Secretary of the Tuvalu Christian Church, in September 2014 at an interfaith summit in New York. How prophetic they were in March 2015 when Super Cyclone Pam wreaked havoc on the Pa- cific island state, killing dozens and destroying thou- sands of homes in neighbouring Vanuatu. Rising sea levels and warmer water temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of tropical storms like this one and Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philip- pines in 2013. Yet, although climate change is already devastating the lives of millions of vulnerable people, Rev. Olav Cyclone Pam survivors survey damage in Vanuatu. Tveit, General Secretary of the World Council of Churches, reminds us: “Despite all the negative condi- Hopeful signs include initiatives being undertaken tions, we have the right to hope, not as a passive wait- by some Canadian provinces such as putting a price ing but as an active process towards justice and on carbon emissions and declaring moratoria on hy- peace.”2 This Briefing Paper examines some hopeful draulic fracturing (fracking) to extract shale gas. As signs of progress in the struggle for climate justice, well, a number of civil society groups, such as Cli- despite major obstacles. -
C2G Evidence Brief: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Its Governance
Carnegie Climate EVIDENCE BRIEF Governance Initiative Carbon Dioxide Removal An initiative of and its Governance 2 March 2021 Summary This briefing summarises the latest evidence relating to Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques and their governance. It describes a range of techniques currently under consideration, exploring their technical readiness, current research, applicable governance frameworks, and other socio-political considerations in section I. It also provides an overview of some generic CDR governance issues and the key instruments relevant for the governance of CDR in section II. About C2G The Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G) seeks to catalyse the creation of effective governance for climate-altering approaches, in particular for solar radiation modification (SRM) and large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reaffirmed that large-scale CDR is required in all pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot. Some scientists say SRM may also be needed to avoid that overshoot. C2G is impartial regarding the potential use of specific approaches, but not on the need for their governance - which includes multiple, diverse processes of learning, discussion and decision-making, involving all sectors of society. It is not C2G’s role to influence the outcome of these processes, but to raise awareness of the critical governance questions that underpin CDR and SRM. C2G’s mission will have been achieved once their governance is taken on board by governments and intergovernmental bodies, including awareness raising, knowledge generation, and facilitating collaboration. C2G has prepared several other briefs exploring various CDR and SRM technologies and associated issues. -
Principles for Thinking About Carbon Dioxide Removal in Just Climate Policy
ll Commentary Principles for Thinking about Carbon Dioxide Removal in Just Climate Policy David R. Morrow,1,* Michael S. Thompson,2 Angela Anderson,3 Maya Batres,4 Holly J. Buck,5 Kate Dooley,6 Oliver Geden,7,8 Arunabha Ghosh,9 Sean Low,10 Augustine Njamnshi,11 John Noel,€ 4 Olu´ fẹ́mi O. Ta´ ı´wo` ,12 Shuchi Talati,3 and Jennifer Wilcox13 1Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University, Washington, DC, USA 2Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative, New York, NY, USA 3Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, USA 4Independent scholar, USA 5UCLA School of Law, Los Angeles, CA, USA 6Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia 7German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, Germany 8International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 9Council on Energy, Environment, and Water, New Delhi, India 10Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany 11Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance, Nairobi, Kenya 12Department of Philosophy, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA 13Chemical Engineering Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA *Correspondence: [email protected] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.015 Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is rising up the climate-policy agenda. Four principles for thinking about its role in climate policy can help ensure that CDR supports the kind of robust, abatement-focused long-term climate strategy that is essential to fair and effective implementation. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), some- agencies are wrestling with the chal- Different people and institutions will times called carbon removal or negative lenge of forming positions on CDR, have different expectations about long- emissions, is the practice of capturing including whether to support it at all term climate strategies. -
FIRST-ORDER DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 19 Do Not Cite, Quote
FIRST-ORDER DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 19 1 Chapter 19. Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors 4 Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Maximiliano Campos (Costa Rica) 5 6 Lead Authors 7 Joern Birkmann (Germany), George Luber (USA), Brian O’Neill (USA), Kiyoshi Takahashi (Japan), Rachel Warren 8 (UK) 9 10 Contributing Authors 11 Franz Berkhout (Netherlands), Pauline Dube (Botswana), Wendy Foden (South Africa), Stefan Greiving (Germany), 12 Solomon Hsiang (USA), Klaus Keller (USA), Joan Kleypas (USA), Robert Kopp (USA), Carlos Peres (UK), Jeff 13 Price (UK), Alan Robock (USA), Wolfram Schlenker (USA), Richard Tol (UK) 14 15 Review Editors 16 Mike Brklacich (Canada), Sergey Semenov (Russian Federation) 17 18 Chapter Scientist 19 Solomon Hsiang (USA) 20 21 22 Contents 23 24 Executive Summary 25 26 19.1. Purpose, Scope, and Structure of the Chapter 27 19.1.1. Historical Development of this Chapter 28 19.1.2. The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate 29 Change Adaptation (SREX) 30 19.1.3. New Developments in this Chapter 31 32 19.2. Framework for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities, Key Risks, and Emergent Risks 33 19.2.1. Risk and Vulnerability 34 19.2.2. Criteria for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities and Key Risks 35 19.2.2.1. Criteria for Identifying Key Vulnerabilities 36 19.2.2.2. Criteria for Identifying Key Risks 37 19.2.3. Criteria for Identifying Emergent Risks 38 19.2.4. Identifying Key and Emergent Risks under Alternative Development Pathways 39 19.2.5. Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and Emergent Risks 40 41 19.3. -
The Need for Fast Near-Term Climate Mitigation to Slow Feedbacks and Tipping Points
The Need for Fast Near-Term Climate Mitigation to Slow Feedbacks and Tipping Points Critical Role of Short-lived Super Climate Pollutants in the Climate Emergency Background Note DRAFT: 27 September 2021 Institute for Governance Center for Human Rights and & Sustainable Development (IGSD) Environment (CHRE/CEDHA) Lead authors Durwood Zaelke, Romina Picolotti, Kristin Campbell, & Gabrielle Dreyfus Contributing authors Trina Thorbjornsen, Laura Bloomer, Blake Hite, Kiran Ghosh, & Daniel Taillant Acknowledgements We thank readers for comments that have allowed us to continue to update and improve this note. About the Institute for Governance & About the Center for Human Rights and Sustainable Development (IGSD) Environment (CHRE/CEDHA) IGSD’s mission is to promote just and Originally founded in 1999 in Argentina, the sustainable societies and to protect the Center for Human Rights and Environment environment by advancing the understanding, (CHRE or CEDHA by its Spanish acronym) development, and implementation of effective aims to build a more harmonious relationship and accountable systems of governance for between the environment and people. Its work sustainable development. centers on promoting greater access to justice and to guarantee human rights for victims of As part of its work, IGSD is pursuing “fast- environmental degradation, or due to the non- action” climate mitigation strategies that will sustainable management of natural resources, result in significant reductions of climate and to prevent future violations. To this end, emissions to limit temperature increase and other CHRE fosters the creation of public policy that climate impacts in the near-term. The focus is on promotes inclusive socially and environmentally strategies to reduce non-CO2 climate pollutants, sustainable development, through community protect sinks, and enhance urban albedo with participation, public interest litigation, smart surfaces, as a complement to cuts in CO2. -
Climate Intervention (July 2021)
State of the Science FACT SHEET Climate Intervention Climate Intervention (CI), also called climate engineering or geoengineering, refers to deliberate, large‐scale actions intended to counteract aspects of climate change. This Fact Sheet explains some of the fundamental principles and issues associated with CI (1). Why Might Climate Intervention Be Considered? The main driver of climate change over the past century has been anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas (GHG). Increasing emission rates have caused present‐day atmospheric CO2 to reach the highest value in over a million years based on studies of emissions of atmospheric CO2 and its accumulation in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere. The increased emissions of other GHGs, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone, also contribute to anthropogenic climate change. The increased accumulation of GHGs has led to warming over much of the globe, to acidification of ocean surface waters (from CO2) (2), and to many other well‐documented climate impacts (3). As climate change continues, if the world does not make the desired greenhouse gas emissions reductions (4) such as those initiated by the Paris agreement (5), governments and other entities might turn to CI to counteract increasing climate change impacts. CI could potentially be implemented by consensus or unilaterally; either way, a thorough understanding of CI methods, and their associated uncertainties and unintended side effects is essential. Principal CI methods are divided into two How might CDR be accomplished? general categories (6) (see figure): Oceanic sequestration: Adding nutrients, such as iron, to “ferti‐ lize” the ocean enhances biological growth (e.g., phytoplank‐ Carbon dioxide removal (CDR): CDR is a process to remove ton), which removes CO2 from surface waters and leads to lower CO2 from the atmosphere for long‐term storage on land or atmospheric levels. -
Permafrost Carbon Feedbacks Threaten Global Climate Goals Downloaded by Guest on October 1, 2021 [EU] Member States Were Included in the EU’S Commitment)
Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global BRIEF REPORT climate goals Susan M. Natalia,1, John P. Holdrenb, Brendan M. Rogersa, Rachael Treharnea, Philip B. Duffya, Rafe Pomerancea, and Erin MacDonalda aWoodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540; and bBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 Edited by Robert E. Dickinson, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, and approved March 9, 2021 (received for review January 5, 2021) Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is wildfires (8, 9) that emit large amounts of carbon both directly thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from perma- from combustion and indirectly by accelerating permafrost thaw. frost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for Fire-induced permafrost thaw and the subsequent decomposition in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of of previously frozen organic matter may be a dominant source of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C Arctic carbon emissions during the coming decades (9). or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides ongoing opportunities to Despite the potential for a strong positive feedback from increase ambition to reduce society’s greenhouse gas emissions, permafrost carbon on global climate, permafrost carbon emissions which will also reduce emissions from thawing permafrost. In De- are not accounted for by most Earth system models (ESMs) or cember 2020, more than 70 countries announced more ambitious integrated assessment models (IAMs), including those that in- nationally determined contributions as part of their Paris Agree- formed the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel ment commitments; however, the carbon budgets that informed on Climate Change (IPCC) and the IAMs which informed the these commitments were incomplete, as they do not fully account IPCC’s special report on global warming of 1.5 °C (10, 11). -
Accelerating Offshore Carbon Capture and Storage Opportunities and Challenges for CO2 Removal
Accelerating Offshore Carbon Capture and Storage Opportunities and Challenges for CO2 Removal Report on October 2020 Workshop 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary 2 Motivation 4 Background 5 Workshop Design 6 Essential Project Criteria 7 Workshop Process 8 Discussion Flow 8 Polling and Numerical Data 9 Data Summary and Observations 10 Average U Values by Criterion and Project Design 10 Specific Observations 11 Conclusions and Next Steps 11 Appendices 13 Appendix 1. Participant Biographies 14 Appendix 2. Workshop Agenda 23 Appendix 3. Major and Sub-Criteria for Each Project Design 24 Additional Readings 25 SUMMARY In October 2020, Columbia World Projects (CWP) held a 3-day workshop to discuss the challenge of scoping the uncertainties for offshore carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and mineralization. The workshop is a critical first step in moving potential new and essential technologies towards large-scale implementation. CWP was pleased to help participants envision how they could launch effective demonstration of field projects in the offshore environment. Climate change, caused by anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, is one of the most urgent and extensive global threats confronting us today. The need to rapidly reduce emissions has prompted growing interest in CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS). However, there are many technical and non-technical challenges associated with implementing CCS technologies, particularly offshore. These include issues associated with long-term liabilities, various engineering and ecological concerns, as well as public acceptance. Workshop discussions focused on two potential offshore locations where designs for future demonstration projects are being considered. 1 Like other climate mitigation activities, offshore CCS poses a dynamic risk management problem. -
The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): Rationale and Experimental Design
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–29, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP): rationale and experimental design David P. Keller1, Andrew Lenton2,3, Vivian Scott4, Naomi E. Vaughan5, Nico Bauer6, Duoying Ji7, Chris D. Jones8, Ben Kravitz9, Helene Muri10, and Kirsten Zickfeld11 1GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany TS1 2CSIRO Oceans and Atmospheres, Hobart, Australia 3Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia 4School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK TS2 5Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK 6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 7College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China 8Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 9Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA 10Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway 11Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada Correspondence: David P. Keller ([email protected]) Received: 11 July 2017 – Discussion started: 17 August 2017 Revised: 7 December 2017 – Accepted: 19 December 2017 – Published: Abstract. TS3 TS4 CE1 The recent IPCC reports state that con- versibility”, the response of the Earth system to direct atmo- tinued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing spheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the the climate, threatening “severe, pervasive and irreversible” CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, 25 impacts.