November 2014 The new wave of emerging countries Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, , , Mexico

www.fondapol.org

Laurence Daziano www.fondapol.org

The new wave of emerging countries Bangladesh, EthiopiA, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico

Laurence DAZIANO The Fondation pour l’innovation politique is a French think tank for European integration and free economy.

Chair: Nicolas Bazire Vice-chair: Grégoire Chertok Executive Director: Dominique Reynié Chair of Scientific and Evaluation Board: Laurence Parisot

The Fondation pour l’innovation politique is publishing this paper as part of its work on economic growth.

4 Executive summary

In 2001 an economist at introduced the BRICS to mark the entry of emerging countries into the global economy. The idea of emergence is experiencing a conspicuous revival that reflects a profoundly altered international context. Since the appearance of this notion, classifications with wide and sometimes vague criteria have emerged to try to identify the new emerging countries. Ten years later the BRICS countries have emerged and are facing the challenges of societies that are almost developed. Meanwhile, new emerging countries, defined by five economic criteria, are making their appearance. These criteria are: a large population of over 100 million people, a potential 10-year growth rate hovering around 5%, an urbanization rate of 50% and still growing, infrastructure needs to accompany the economic boom and political stability to implement long- term projects. According to these criteria, the next emerging countries are the BENIVM states: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico. After the BENIVMs, other countries with smaller populations and economies more related to the exploitation of raw materials are ready to pick up the torch of global growth, or at least to participate strongly in it. But France is economically hardly present in BENIVM countries and does not (yet?) make the necessary efforts to reorient its economic and commercial means to these forthcoming economic powers.

5 6 The new wave of emerging countries Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico

Laurence DAZIANO 1 Lecturer in economics at Sciences Po Paris, member of the scientific board of the Foundation for political innovation

«By 2050, 19 of the top 30 world economies will be the ones known today as emerging economies. How will this new world organization affect your business?” This advertisement from the British bank HSBC, published in May 2013 in the French business daily Les Echos, shows the way the global economy has evolved. In the early 21st century a new wave of countries is appearing on the international economic scene, influenced by the double- digit growth of the BRICS 2 countries. Newly emerging countries are not waiting for Western economies, paralysed by the sovereign debt crisis and difficulties in effecting reforms, to take advantage of their economic strengths and capture new markets. Yet the definition of these emerging countries remains unclear. Asian Tigers, BRICS, BIICS, Next Eleven, , CIVETS: many categories have emerged, most of them in recent years, bringing together countries whose characteristics are sometimes very different and often without any overall cohesion. However, most economic studies of the period up to 2050, including both that of HSBC 3 and that of PricewaterhouseCoopers 4, agree in expecting the economic rise of so-called «Southern» countries.

1. Laurence Daziano, graduate of Sciences Po Paris, ESSEC, the Freie Universität Berlin and the University Paris IV Sorbonne, has been a lecturer in economics at Sciences Po since 2008. She publishes regularly in the French national press and works in particular on economic issues in emerging countries. 2. Brazil, Russia, India, China and 3. The World in 2050: HSBC projection for the world economy in 2050, January 11 2012. 4. World in 2050. The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities, PricewaterhouseCoopers, January 2013.

7 8 fondapol | l’innovation politique R growth andonthemarginofnextmajortraderoutes. to thestatusof«smalltip Asian continent,» remotefromfutureglobal This «elsewhere»progressivelyreducesEurope, inthewordsofPaul Valery, French influenceisundergoingconsiderablediminutionorlittledeveloped. This «elsewhere»isprimarilyin andsub-Saharan Africa, inareaswhere «emerging» countriesareelsewhere. longer eligibleforbenefitsgrantedtodevelopingcountries refuse toopentheirmarketstheBRICS, consideringthattheyareno now at the World Trade Organization(WTO) when developed countries country, except for high inequality? This has been the debate for some years Janeiro, canwestillconsiderittohavethecharacteristicsofadeveloping in 2014andplanstobuildahigh-speedlinebetweenSaoPauloRiode world withitspublicoilcompanyPetrobras, hostedthefootball World Cup «emergent»? When Brazilmanagesthelargestfund-raisingoperationin nuclear powerplantsandhigh-speedtrains, canitstillbedescribedas a state like China masters advanced technologies and isreadyto export «emerging» andcannowbedescribedratheras«emerged»countries. When Already theso-calledBRICSemergingcountriesarenolongerreally 5. R known as “dragons”, appeared. Subsequently, emergencewasaconcept and whenthefirst Asianemerging countries, thefamous«tigers», sometimes oil crisisof1973putasudden endtotheeconomicsupremacyofNorth Attempts to classify emerging economies appeared in the 1970s, when the F to participateintheworld’s governance. sustainable economicgrowth, astableand interventioniststate, andawish embodies thenotionofemergenceinfollowingcriteria: astrongand definitions, thatofProfessorChristophe Jaffrelot, ofSciencesPoParis, analysis, andcountriescanfigureinseveral . Amongthecurrent imprecise. Most classifications do not carry out a rigorous economic The criteriausedtodefineeconomicemergencearediverseandrelatively epresentative of Brazil to the WT rom A obert Azevedo, Director G B sian Tigers to A RICS: SY MB O eneral of the WT L OF THENO sian C O . ubs O , took office inSeptember 2013, and was previously P T ION OF E CONO M IC EMERG 5 . Infact, thenew ENCE ermanent to expand. SouthKoreadevelopedlargefirmsknownas«chaebols» Singapore focusedonportactivityandthepresenceofcommercialcapital added value(automotiveproducts, consumerelectronics). HongKongand cost oflabourandspecialisedprogressivelyinindustrialactivitieswithhigh region forstrategicreasons. The four«tigers” tookadvantageofthelow and investmentofeconomicaidfromtheUnitedStates, presentinthe To grow, thesecountrieshavetakenadvantageoftheJapanesemarket strong exportgrowth, andtheriseofavibrant middleclass. have seentheireconomiesboom, withgrowth ratesabovetheglobalaverage, and IndonesiasometimesthePhilippines Vietnam. These countries the timeperiodsanddefinitions, these«tigers» include Thailand, Malaysia After the four «tigers», the «tiger cubs» appeared in the 1980s. According to them aspectaculareconomicboomwithgrowthratesof10% peryear. market, considerableeffortsinsavingsandeducation. This modelallowed state, prioritytoexporting(entailinglowlabourcosts), aprotecteddomestic four «tigers» followed the business model developed by Japan: a strong exporting andinnovativesmallmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs). These prosperity duringthistimeon American aidandontheactivitiesof accelerated the development of the economy. Taiwan based its economic 7,700 and6,400inhabitantspersquarekilometre among the most densely populated places on the planet with respectively Kong 7millionandSingapore5.6 the world. SouthKoreahas49millioninhabitants, Taiwan 23million, Hong different sizes, but with very high population densities, among the highest in modernisation. These fourcountries(includingtwocity-states)areofvery experiencing sincethe1960saperiodofeconomicexpansionandrapid Taiwan, HongKong, Singapore)drewattentiontocountriesthathadbeen In the1970s, theemergenceoffour«tigers»in Asia (SouthKorea, and presentbusinessopportunities. and HSBC, toseekprovideinvestorswithhighreturnsinsomemarkets taken upby American andBritishbanks, firstamongthemGoldmanSachs of the former Japanese zaibatsu. 8. InKorea, chaebols 7. CIA World Factbook 2013. 6. 2014 E st., CIA World Factbook 2014. aresets of organizations involved incross-shareholdings. They arethe Korean equivalent 6 . SingaporeandHongKongare 7 . 8 , which

9 The new wave of emerging countries 10 fondapol | l’innovation politique producer inthe world, with 10 of the top 20 global mining companies. 12. For Mr.11. BRIC, nations meeting amilestone, interview with J. O’N 10. U H India isnotfaroff economy inplaceofJapan. BrazilandRussiahavesurpassedCanada, and BRICS represent16%ofglobalGDP, Chinahas becomethesecondlargest could be higher than the combined GDP of the G7 countries 2037, thecombinedgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofthesefourcountries of worldtradeandglobalisation. Hiscalculationsshowedhimthatin economic giants because of the size of their domestic markets, of the growth these countries increased their productivity, they would soon become added in2011)isRussiawith140millionpeople. Heconcludedthatif economic sphere. The leastpopulatedcountry(untilSouth Africa was O’Neill beganfromasimpledimension:theimpactofpopulationon the worldeconomy. as economicpowerssettochallengethedominanceofrichcountriesin presented theconceptofBRICtodescribeBrazil, Russia, IndiaandChina Sachs, publishedapaperinwhichhedefinednewemergingcountries. He attacks, JimO’Neill the triumphofglobalisation, butalsointheaftermathofSeptember11 In November2001, afterthefallofBerlin Wall andthebeginningof 2001: The revival of economic emergence with the B 9. JimO’N trade, investmentpoliciesandthequality ofeducation. In2009, these11 he usedincludedmacroeconomicstability, politicalmaturity, openness to Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, thePhilippines, and Vietnam. The criteria economies), thesebeingBangladesh, SouthKorea, , Indonesia, Iran, emerging countries, indevelopingtheNext Eleven(thenext11emerging up on thesuccess of the BRIC thesis, he tried to create a new concept for In 2005, O’Neillpublishedanewnotefor GoldmanSachswhere, following After the B materials economy andtotheJohannesburgStockExchange, itisatradehubforraw community whichisveryinfluentialandintegratedintothe Anglosphere Chinese giants. ButthankstotheeffortsofSouth African business size (48millionpeople)comparedwiththeBrazilian, Russian, Indianand In 2011 South Africa joined the group of BRIC, despite its modest population e joined the investment bank G Since the discovery of diamonds in the Kimberley region in 1866, nited S eill, born in1957, isaBritish economist, who holds aPhDineconomics from the U tates, Japan, G 12 RICS . , the proliferation of classifications for emerging countries ermany, U 11 . 9 , thenchiefeconomistofthe American bankGoldman oldman Sachs in1997 and became chief economist. H nited Kingdom, F rance, I taly and C eill, moneycnn, June 17 2009. South anada. Africa has become a major mining RICS e retired inearly 2013. 10 niversity of Surrey. . Today, the of C of 7 The BRIC Debate:17. Drop Russia, Add Indonesia? , Bloomberg Businessweek, N 16. BRICS and BICIS, The E that O’NeillhadsetwhenhecreatedtheacronymBRIC. terms ofpopulationandeconomicgrowth, Indonesiameetsthefirstcriteria But thisfindingisnotsufficienttodefinetheemergingcountries, in although population» and«acertainpoliticalstability.» a «dynamic and diversified economy,» «alarge, increasing and young The criteriausedtodefineCIVETSremainunclear. Thesecountrieshave of ColombiaandSouth Africa theCIVETSareamongNextEleven. Africa, whichwastojointheBRICgroupayearlater. With theexceptions includes , Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey andevenSouth the Chamber ofCommercein in April 2010. The classification outlined byMichaelGeoghegan, CEOofHSBCGroup, inaspeechbefore by Robert Ward oftheEconomistIntelligenceUnit. This conceptwas countries accountedfor7%ofglobalGDP, against16%fortheBRICS 15. “F coat, inAppetizing CIVETS , C 14. The acronym CIVETS refers to the civet, acarnivorous mammal with stocky body, short legs and ash spotted 13. W BRICS, which thereby became BIICS or BICIS and MorganStanleyproposedtoreplaceRussiabyIndonesia amongthe In 2009, NourielRoubini, aprofessorattheSternSchoolofBusiness, In 2010, thereappearedtheCIVETS Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. «G7», i.e. thefirstsevenworldeconomiessuchasUnitedStates, Japan, Mexico and Turkey. These countries are opposed to thecountries of the (hence the «E») in 2050: China, India, Brazil, Russia (i.e. BRIC), Indonesia, the countries called E7, embracing the most important emerging economies In itsfirstreportontheWorld in2050, PricewaterhouseCoopershighlighted the governmentsofthesecountries. is usedprimarilyinthefinancialsectorwhereitrelatestobondsissuedby of twocountriesasdiverseSouthKoreaandIndonesia. This classification Indeed, theeconomicordemographicsimilaritiesarehardtofindinrespect Eleven group, andthecriteriaforthisnewclassificationarenotveryexplicit. South Koreaand Turkey. These fourcountriesalreadybelongtotheNext A fanofacronyms, O’Neilladdedin2011«MIKT»forMexico, Indonesia, economic growth of 6% and its improving social and political institutions endemic , theypreferredthe fiscalprudenceofIndonesia’s tendencies oftheRussianpoliticalsystem, demographicatrophy, and ong Kong. Hong ommerce orld Bank, current dollars. rom W est to E ast”, M conomist, N ichael ourrier International, A G eoghegan, ovember 26 2009. HSB C G ugust 10, 2010. roup 14 CEO , anacronyminventedayearearlier , S peech of 15 16

. Noting the authoritarian April 27 2010 to the ovember 18 2010. American C hamber 13 . 17 . 11 The new wave of emerging countries 12 fondapol | l’innovation politique of USD32,400. Bycomparison, Franceoccupies40thpositionwitha South Korearanked43rdintheworld2012withaGDPpercapita The firstcountriesclassifiedinthe1970sasemergingarenowdeveloped. B these conceptsarepoorlydefinedorquicklyoverwhelmed. demographic criteria. Recenteconomicdevelopmentsdemonstratethat like journalisticconceptsthantobesupportedbyspecificeconomicand clear visionofthenextemergingmarkets. These rankingsseemtobemore rankings, oftencombiningthesamecountries, hadtheeffectofblurringa it possibletofinanceinfrastructure. Buttheinflationofacronymsand exports andtheaccumulationofforeignexchangereservesthatmake economic catch-upwithlowwages, anundervaluedcurrencytosupport These emergingcountrieshavefollowedthesamepathinglobalisation:an Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, SouthKorea, Turkey and Vietnam. alphabetic order:Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, classifications combined(NextEleven, E7, MIKT, CIVETS), andin After theBRIC(S), countriesthatseemmostpromisinginclude, all by Petrobras. CNNC), the aircraft ofEmbraeroroilexploitationsystemsinoceanic shale such asthenuclearpowerplants ofChinesemanufacturers(CGNPCand high-value goodsthatcompetedirectlywiththoseofdeveloped countries, have accountedfor30%ofglobalgrowthsince2001andthey nowproduce population, 15%oftradeand40%currency reserves. These economies development. They nowaccountfor20%ofglobalGDP, 42%ofthe countries. Morerecently, inthelastdecade, theBRICSalsounderwent second (15thintheworld). They aredefinitelytoberegardedasdeveloped 62,400 forthefirst(seventhinworld)andUSD52,700 dollarsforthe ranked amongtheworld’s richestcountries, withaGDPpercapitaofUSD are amongthehighestinworld. In2013 SingaporeandHongKongwere of the European UnionorJapan. Their humandevelopmentindices(HDI) a standardoflivingcomparableto, orevenhigherthan, thatofthecountries have been regarded, since the 1990s, as developed countries. They now have Other Asian tigerswerealsocalled«newlyindustrialisedcountries»and (OECD), abodyoftencalled«clubofrichcountries.» member oftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment GDP/capita ofUSD35,500dollars. Since1996SouthKoreahasalsobeena RICS between economic success and social challenges

C GDP/capita «developed countries»(17thintheworldforGDP, despitea90th-highest emerged. InitsWorld Factbook, CIA classifies Turkey under the heading of Turkey seemstobeanonsenseasbothcountriesappearhavealready Among the Next Eleven and MIKT classifications, naming South Korea and of developedcountries shift movesChinatowardsaneconomicmodelmorecomparablewiththat decade, theaverageincomeofworkershasincreasedby15%peryear. That in 2020beforereducinggradually. There areseveralcauses. Duringthelast people. The sameflowisexpectedtobe57millionin2015and33 declining. This laboursurpluspeakedin2010, withaflowof151million Guangdong), whichensuredthesuccessofChina’s exports, arealready great migrations from the interior of the country to the coast (including that haveallowedittobuildthelow-cost«workshopofworld». The ageing population. Over30years, Chinahasbeencreating350millionjobs In thecomingyears, Chinawillfaceashortageoflabourbecausean of theireconomies, massivepollutioncausedbymanufacturingindustries ... reducing inequalities, asoftlandingfortheirmodelofgrowth, diversification implementation ofeffectivesocialprotectionincludinghealthinsurance, BRICS mustnowfacechallengesrelatedtodevelopment:balanceofpensions, his work on development economics. 19. Arthur L 18. E billion peoplein2030 in emergingcountriesamountedto250millionpeople. Itwillrepresent1.2 of growth from exports to domestic consumption. In 2000 the middle class shift has the effect of creating a new middle class, which switches the engine investment. The BRICSarecurrentlyatthatturning point. This economic in arapidincreaseincome, adecline inprofitmarginsandafall defines themomentwhenabundantlabourisbecoming scarce, resulting Lewis The processofbecomingadevelopedcountrywasconceivedby Arthur country. 20. “F published in1954, isconsidered as one of the founders of development economics articles. hamber of C st. 2013, CIAWorld Factbook 2014 rom W 19 , aNobellaureateineconomics, asthe«Lewisturningpoint». This ewis, aneconomist originally from S est to E ommerce inH 18 ). Economistsandpoliticalscientistsseeitasanewindustrial ast”, M ong Kong. ichael G 20 . eoghegan, CEO of HSB H is article “E t. L conomic ucia, received the N C G D evelopment with roup, April 27, 2010, S obel P rize for E U nlimited Supplies of L peech to the American conomics in1979 for abour,” 13 The new wave of emerging countries 14 fondapol | l’innovation politique C largest outletforlocalindustry, but also theoutletforimportsnecessary people, toconstitute animportantdomesticmarket, whichisboththe The firstcriterionispopulation . Itmustbelarge enough, atleast100million cumulative criteriadefinepreciselyeconomicemergence. be usedtoidentifythenextbigemergingcountries. These fivestructuring factors indevelopment:theeconomicanddemographic. Fivecriteriacan It shouldstartfromthefirstanalysisbyO’Neill, thatcombinedthetwokey The criteria for economic emergence identify thegreatestpotentialgrowthanddevelopment. There shouldbeamoreaccurateclassificationofnewemerging countriesto The verynotionofeconomicemergencemustbefundamentally revised. foundations ofdynamiceconomicgrowthneedtobeconsideredasemerging. Meanwhile, newcountrieswithastrongpopulationgrowthandthe trading partnerof Africa. South traderoutewillcontinuetogrow. Chinahasbecome thelargest In 2009ChinabecamethelargestimporterofBraziliangoods. This South- two-thirds ofexportsgotomarketsotherthantheUnitedStatesorEurope. increases. And theseexportsarenotdirectedtowardsthe West. FromIndia, now inemergingmarketsthanimports. To meetdemand, recruitment This economictiltisalsothesourceofnewtraderoutes. Exportsaregreater 21. “F hamber of C BRIC Brazil India R C C hina ountry ussia rom W est to E ommerce inH THE N ast”, M W WA ong Kong. ichael G VE OF EMERGING COUNTRI eoghegan, CEO of HSB 21

Exports ($ billion) est. 2012 est. 2 050 2 1082 309 242 531 C G roup, April 27, 2010, S ES: BENIVM Imports ($ billion) peech to the American est. 2012 est. 1 817 1 1074 500 335 239 acronym ofBENIVM. Vietnam and Mexico. These countries can be grouped under the new the nextemergingcountriesareBangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Indonesia, to 10years, hoveringaround5% path oflong-termgrowthcombininglabourinputandcapitalinput, ofup The secondcriterionisapotentialeconomicgrowth, orinotherwords, a more itwillcontributetoeconomicdevelopment. The youngerandbettereducateditis, withahighfemaleliteracyrate, the for balanced trade. This population should experience significant growth. in the world, and Ethiopia has 17% but very strong growth. 24. I 23. Born in1924, N 22. The economic growth of the B Under thesecriteria, andwithfewexceptions intheselectedcountries necessary fortheeconomicdevelopmentofacountry. as construction of energy infrastructure, high-speed rail lines orairports, makes possibletheimplementationofpolicieslarge-scaleworks, such equipped withalong-termvisionandpermanenttenureininstitutions, in handwithademocraticopeningup. Butitshowsthatastablepower, of Chinashowsthateconomicdevelopmentdoesnotnecessarilygohand regime) thatallowsimplementationoflong-termprojects. The example The fifthcriterionisapoliticalstability(regardlessofthetype mortality. ensure accesstopipedandtreatedwaterforbetterhealthreducedchild it possibletoreducedependencevis-à-visexternalsuppliersandalso airports andenergyinfrastructure. The balanceoftheenergymixmakes take-off. Travel isfacilitatedbytheconstructionofroads, bridges, railways, The fourthcriterionisaneedforinfrastructure tosupportaneconomic sense, urbanizationisaprerequisiteforemergence. transport, access to drinkingwaterand electricity. It facilitatestrade. In this key factorineconomicdevelopment. The cityallowsthedevelopmentof The thirdcriterionismajororhighlydynamicurbanizationasthisa influences thelevelofactivity. increase ofcapitalstock, oftheamountworkandtechnicalprogress the American neoclassicaleconomistRobertSolow t should be noted that Bangladesh has anurbanization rate of 33% but also the greatest population density obel P rize inE conomics in1987. RICS countries inthe last 10 years. 22 . According tothe modeldevelopedby 23 , theinteractionofan 24 , 15 The new wave of emerging countries 16 fondapol | l’innovation politique (slightly lessthan6%)andIndonesia(5.5%) Nigeria rankshighestintheperiod2012-2050(6%), followedby Vietnam Source: P C growth. Intermsofgrowth rate ofGDPinpurchasingpowerparity(PPP) 2050 Indonesia, Nigeria and Vietnam could experience dramatic economic the periodtosustaintheirrecentstronggrowth. According tothereport, by their leadershipin2050, butemergingmarketsstillfacehugechallengesin of theworldeconomy. China, theUnitedStatesandIndiashouldconsolidate Coopers, the financial crisis hasaccelerated the shift of the centre of gravity According tothelatestWorld in2050publishedbyPricewaterhouse BENIVM: the challenge of sustainable growth 26. terms of purchasing power of national currencies, which asimple use of exchange rates does not do. 25. The purchasing power parity isamethod used ineconomics to make acomparison between countries in slightly morefavourablethanthatoftheBRICS. In termsoftrade, BENIVMhadin2012 atradesurplusestimatedtobe January 2013. C Mexico BENIVM E Bangladesh N V Indonesia hart 1:Breakdownhart of components of average real growth inGDP at PPP (2011-2050)

ietnam % change per annum ountry thiopia A igeria World in2050. The BRICS and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities, P verage growth inGDP per capita -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

N wC igeria V , January 2013 ietnam

India Indonesia

Malaysia

Saudi ACrabiahina South Africa

A

verage population growth Mexico

Exports ($ billion) Turkey

est. 2012 Brazil Argentina 801 189 115 371 26 97 3 Australia

Russia Poland 26

Canada .

US

GDP growth (PPP) France

Imports ($ billion) UK

ricewaterhouseC Spain est. 2012 789

379 Korea 114 179 35 11 71

Italy Japan Germany oopers, 25 , in theworld mainly in Asia and Africa. They are among the 14 most populous countries In population terms, the BENIVM represent a set of one billion people, 7 CIAWorld Factbook 201327. and INSEE also haveasignificantenergy potential, includinghydropower. potential and economies that are already diversified and industrial. They high populationgrowthcombined withrapidurbanization, astronggrowth from thetraditionalimageof apoorcountry. Infact, bothcountrieshave a completelynewentrantinthiscategoryofemerging countries, far Bangladesh isalreadyidentifiedamongtheNextEleven. Ethiopiais, however, manufacturing sectorandhighlysignificantdevelopment prospects. speaking countries. They havea sustained economic growth, adynamic published bytheBostonConsultingGroup(BCG)orbanks inEnglish- Indonesia alsoappearregularlyintherankingsofnewemerging countries Already mentionedintheNextEleven, Vietnam, Nigeria, Mexico and by 2030. population growthofBENIVMshouldbenearlytwotimes that of theBRIC More importantly, BENIVMhavesignificantpopulationdynamics. The 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 12 7 2013 R W 1 13 14 anking orld 27 Mexico Japan R Bangladesh P Brazil Indonesia U India Philippines N C C BENIVM E BRIC V ietnam akistan hina ountry thiopia . nited S nited ussia igeria tates P , population projection in2030 and 2050. (milion) opulation opulation 1 350 1 1 221 2 915 2 2013 892 106 201 193 164 251 143 116 127 317 175 94 92 R anking 2030 11 10 16 13 12 8 7 4 1 3 9 5 6 2 (milion est. P opulation opulation 2030) 1 383 1 3 252 3 1 515 1 1 071 1 220 258 102 183 233 136 134 118 120 126 361 274 Evolution 20% 26% 47% 11% 12% 12% 17% 9% 17 The new wave of emerging countries 18 fondapol | l’innovation politique country andinhibitthepresenceofforeigncapital religious communitiescouldimpedetheeconomicdevelopment ofthe country: religion. Indeed, regularclashestakingplacebetweenthedifferent Nevertheless one factor might affect the economic development of the asset initshumancapital, whoseeducational standardsareimproving banks arenoticingtheeconomicpotentialofcountrythathasamajor international financialinstitutions, ratingagenciesandanalystsoflarge at asteadypaceandarerelocatingmanufacturinginvestment. Similarly, the emergenceofBangladesh. They aredevelopingtheirbusiness presence Suharto in1998 during the A 33. The reformasi 32. Bangladesh isthe fourth M 31. W 30. W physical and safety conditions are still inadequate developed andaccountsforthreequartersofthecountry’s exports, although by adynamicprivatesectorandcheaplabour. The textileindustryishighly growth rateof6%in2013, theadvanceofBangladeshcanbeexplained of theGangesandBrahmaputraaffectedbyextremepoverty. With a retain theimageofacountrythatisvictimmonsoonsindeltas that seemsnottobeperceivedbytheso-called«developed»countries, which (166 millioninhabitantsin2014)isexperiencinganeconomicdynamism Situated betweentworenownedseniorpartnersIndiaandChina, Bangladesh while severalmanufacturershaverelocatedfromChinatothesecountries. Indonesia and Vietnam arecurrentlyalreadytakingoversomeactivities, In Asia, China’s growthisexpectedtomakeasoftlanding. Bangladesh, 29. W killed. 28. A has enteredademocratictransitionsince1998, thereformasi inhabitants, isbecominganewcentrefor majorgrowthin Asia. Indonesia Indonesia, describedasan«archipelagicstate» and with254million foreign manufacturinginvestment 54% of GDP. The business benefits systemis furthermore very attractiveto world’s fourthlargestproducerofclothingproducts. Servicesare already (11% ofGDPin2010) and theUnitedStates. Itseconomyalsodependsheavilyonremittances of theconcentrationthreequartersitsexportstoEuropeanUnion however, hasstrongexternalstructuralvulnerabilities, particularlybecause including theconstructionofabridgeoverPadmaRiver. The economy, public investmentinenergyandinfrastructureprogrammeswasdecided, s showed by the accident inApril 2013 nearDhaka where more than 1,000 people, mostly women, were ebsite of the Directorate of the Treasury, F ebsite of the F ebsite of the F refers to the Indonesian economic and political liberalisation that followed the fall of dictator rench F rench F oreign M oreign M sian financial crisis. uslim country inthe world interms of population and I 30 inistry. inistry. . Nevertheless, the Asian partnershaverecognised rench M 29 . After the2008elections, anambitious inistry of E conomy and F 32 . 28 inance. . Bangladesh isthe slam isthe state religion. 33 , andhas 31 .

policy ofDoiMoi annual increaseinGDPof7%to8%. This stronggrowthisrootedinthe population growsbyamillionyear. Vietnam plansforthenext10yearsan successors totheBRICS. Since2002, GDPhastripled, andthe country’s Vietnam alsoillustratesthisnewclassofemergingcountriesthatare its debtfrom80%to25%ofGDP. has beenexperiencinganaveragegrowthof6%peryearandreduced religious stability since undergonefourpresidentialelections billion. 38. The richest man on the African continent isthe N U C tiated by V 37. 36. Les investisseurs continuent de parier sur l’Indonésie, M 35. Indonesia isthe largest M 34. The latest election, inJuly 2014, was won by Joko Widodo. countries aswellmuchforeigninvestment Indonesia isalsobenefitingfromthewaveofrelocationsother Asian Sumatra andJava, andtheLombokStraitbetweenBaliLombok. Strait ofMalaccabetweenSumatraandMalaysia, theSundaStraitbetween of worldmaritimetransport, inparticularoilandgas, passesthroughthe exporter of palm oil and among the major exporters of rubber. Some 40% tomorrow shalegasofferstremendouspotential-thelargestproducerand energy commodities-oilisrunningoutbuthasbeenreplacedbygasand partners suchasChinaandJapan. This countryisamajorproducerof Indonesia isinthecentreofaregionwithhighpotentialgrowth, withbig vibrant entrepreneurialmiddleclass oil, theriseofmobilephonesector and financialservices,a aswell inhabitants in2050. Nigeria’s growthismainlybasedonthehighpriceof the largest economy in Africa mid-2014 and will have about 250 million inhabitants (2014)andthelargestoilproduceroncontinent, became Nigeria, Africa’s mostpopulouscountrywithandestimated177million (Mauritius, Botswana). the emergenceofSouth Africa anddemographicallysmallercountries In Africa, NigeriaandEthiopiawillbethebiggestgrowthdrivers, after people movingoutofpovertyin15years. decreased from58%in1993to14.5%2008, withsome25million The percentageofthe Vietnamese populationlivingbelowthepovertyline early 1990s, Vietnam hasbeenexperiencingadramaticdeclineofpoverty. up embodiedinthecountry’s accessiontothe WTO in2007. Sincethe ommunist P nlike the Soviet perestroika Đổi mới, “new ( mới) changeĐổi (đổi)”or “renewal” inV ietnam since 1986. The market economy has been authorised and encouraged by the V arty. This economic liberalisation can be compared to that initiated by C 35 37 . Simultaneously, theeconomywasliberalised. Moreover, , the reform was not immediately followed by political liberalisation. launchedin1986, basedonarapideconomicopening uslim country inthe world interms of population. 38 igerian A liko D . ietnamese, isthe name of the economic reform ini- ichel de G 34 and known real political and andknownrealpolitical angote, whose assets total more than €16 36 randi, L . For10years, thecountry es E chos, April 23 2013. hina inthe late 1970s. ietnamese 19 The new wave of emerging countries 20 fondapol | l’innovation politique company.«Eko Atlantic» largest constructioncompany, specialisedinthissector, notbya Western carried outbytheChinaCommunicationsConstructioncompany, China’s of theoceanandrisingwater. Drainageworks anddredgingarebeing also haveanenvironmentalmission:toprotectLagosfromtheassaults of Nigerianmillionaires. Itwillaccommodate250,000residentsand an islandinthelagoonofLagos, dedicatedtobusinessdistrictsandresidences project whichhasthemodest aim of building the “Dubai” of Africa. This is to Lagosinaugurate, alongsideGoodluckJonathan, the«Eko Atlantic» «workshop oftheworld». OnFebruary212013, BillClintontravelled emphasised thisprospect, inthehopethatNigeriabecomesnew Okonjo Iweala, formerExecutiveDirectorofthe , havealso respected and influential economist, and the Minister of Finance, Ngozi The GovernoroftheCentral Bank of Nigeria, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, a double-digit growth. Nobodycontradictedhim. for thenextdecadewastobecomeChinaoftomorrowwithsustained Christian nativeoftheoil-producingsouthcountry, saidhismaingoal next Eldoradoofglobalisation. NigerianPresidentGoodluckJonathan, a for itsinstability, itscorruptionandviolentethnicconflicts, emergedasthe At theforuminDavosJanuary2013, Nigeria, traditionallycriticised 39. Eko isthe name of the city of L substantial exporter, bringing innewresources. While Francestillremembers needs ofthecountry, andtherefore toreduceoilimports, andmakeita This colossalworkshouldmake itpossiblebothtosatisfytheelectricity large hydroelectricdamontheBlueNilenearborderwith SouthSudan. led itfurthermoretoundertakemajorprojects, themostspectacularbeinga been around10%peryear. The politicaldeterminationoftheregimehas agricultural andindustrialworkshop. In recent years, economicgrowthhas to supplytheregionwithelectricity, earnforeignexchangeandbecomean is becomingan«AfricanLion», takingadvantageofitsmanywaterresources inhabitants in2014, isalittleknownemerging power. However, thecountry Ethiopia, theformer Abyssinia, acountryofanestimated97million according toUNprojections. of metropolitanLagos is expectedto reach over 25millionpeopleby2015, joined eachyearby600,000morepeople. Farfromfalling, thepopulation subject totremendouspopulationpressure:the15millioninhabitantsare will beself-sufficientinbothenergyandwatersupply. ThecityofLagosis shopping mallsandoffices. Crossedbya30-metrewidewaterway, thecity agos inthe Yoruba language of N 39 willfeatureluxuryapartments, threemarinas, igeria and the ancient city of I fe. by athirdbetween2011and2012from14millionto9.5 million source ofrevenuefortheEgyptianeconomy, thenumberoftouristsdropped GDP growthof1.8%in2013against5.2%2010. While tourismisavital inhabitants, half of whom are under 25, its economy has collapsed, with a of theuncertaintycausedby«revolution»2011. With 87million Egypt, whichispartoftheNextEleven, isnotincludedinBENIVMbecause selected forvariousreasons, whicharemainlyrelatedtopoliticalinstability. Other countriescouldclaimtobepartofBENIVMbuthavenotbeen «emerge.» could slowdownorevenpermanentlyhinderMexico’s abilityactuallyto drug traffickingandaboutrisinginequality. Thewaragainsttrafficking should remainvigilantaboutthegrowingimportancetoeconomyof say, into a major«workshop»ofthe American continent. Nevertheless, it Mexico hasturnedintoaproducerofmanufacturedgoods, thatisto partner. A memberoftheNorth American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the American economicrecovery, theUnitedStatesbeingitslargesttrading savings. Itsgeographicallocationalsoallowsittotakefulladvantageof currency, modestdebt, abundantinternationalinvestmentandhighdomestic factors arepromising:solidgrowthrates, controlledinflation, attractive to thecommonborderwithUnitedStates. The majormacroeconomic driven largelybythephenomenonofareturn Asian outsourcing, thanks service sectoreconomyandgrowthofmorethan3%ayearsince2005 emerging countries, withademographictransitionalmostcomplete, a70% Mexico, thelargestSpanish-speakingcountry, isthemostadvancedofthese Ethiopia, whileitspopulationgrowthrateishigh. offers real opportunities. Education is also one of the major achievements of lives belowthepovertyline, amiddleclassisemerginginthiscountrythat the famines of1984 and 1985, and althoughone of threeEthiopiansstill 41. L’économie41. égyptienne minée par les divisions politiques , R 40. Except in2008 (1.3%) and 2009 (-6.5%), CIA F power by2025. to predictrealeconomicgrowththatwouldmakethiscountry aneconomic The politicalinstabilitycoupledwiththe Taliban rebellionmakeitdifficult 3% peryearfor10years, reaching6% per yearbetween2004and2006. its populationestimatedat196million(2014)andgrowth rateofabove Another memberoftheNextEleven, Pakistan hasnotbeenlisted, despite actbook 2013. aphaël P roust, l’O pinion, M ay 17 2013. 41 . 40 , 21 The new wave of emerging countries 22 fondapol | l’innovation politique 43. second largest African company. infrastructure anddiversificationoftheeconomy The governmenthascreatedasovereignwealthfund, withUSD5billionfor affected bytheeconomiccrisis been buyingupthecompaniesofitsformercolonialpower, Portugal, deeply Angola registeredagrowthrateof5.6%in2013, thankstotheoilsector In Africa, thetwolargestPortuguese-speakingcountriescometofore. on theirrawmaterialresources, includingoilandgas. Azerbaijan andColombia. These countriesarealso much more dependent are Angola, Ghana, Côted’Ivoire, Mozambique, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, is between10and40million), canbedescribedas«BENIVMjunior.» These a group of emerging countries, demographically smaller (whose population of theireconomies, leadingemergingcountriesforthenextdecade. However, The BENIVMare, mainlybecauseoftheirlargepopulationandthediversity N (-1.9%) and2013(-1.5%). of 81millioninhabitants(2014estimate), withnegativegrowthsince2012 economy. The sanctionshaveasevereimpactonthegrowthofthiscountry Iran isalsopenalisedbyitsolderrevolutionthatstillstronglyaffectshe 42. 46. C 2012. 45. Rapport 2013, les entreprises françaises et l’Afrique , CIAN 44. Angolans already hold anestimated 3%to 5%of the market capitalization of Lisbon. 2012. contracted outtoaSpanishcompany Construction ofthefirstdesalinationplantin Africabeganin 2012andwas elections andwaselected, barely, butwithoutelectoralcontestation. the president, the vice president handled the transition ahead of presidential and mining. Itisacountrywithgreatpolitical stability. After thedeathof in 2011). This growthisbasedonadiversifiedeconomy, stimulated byoil In for theirpoliticalstability, whichisuncommononthe African continent. exceed thatofQatar. Bothcountriesareespecially appreciatedbyinvestors Zambezi. Within 15yearsgas productioninMozambiqueisexpectedto oil andgasrecentlydiscoveredintheRovumaBasin, coalminingoffthe Mozambique willbecome, inthenextdecade, theEldoradoofrawmaterials: natural resources(gas, oil), anditsproductionofcocoa experienced agrowthrateof9.8%in2012and8%2013 thankstoits Despite itsprecariouspoliticalandsecuritycontext, theCôted’Ivoire ew candidates for economic emergence Rapport 2013, les entreprises françaises et l’Afrique, CIAN Angola is the second largest oil producer in Ghana, theannualgrowthratewas7.9%inboth2012and2013(15% ôte d’Ivoire isthe world’s largest producer of cocoa and coffee. 44 Africa after . 45 . N igeria. , F , F rench C rench C Sonangol, ouncil of Investors in Africa, D ouncil of InvestorsAfrica, in D 43 . Gradually, Angola has Angola’s public oil company is the 46 , coffeeandcotton. ecember ecember 42 .

Abatta) andtelecommunications(the«opticalfibre»project) construction ofthethirdbridgein Abidjan), energy(thermalpowerplantof investments arebeingmadeintransportinfrastructure(portof Abidjan, country by2020, andhascalledfora«newIvorianmiracle President Alassane Ouattarahassetagoalforhiscountry:tobeanemerging 47. N 51. CIA 50. CIA the largest exporters of potassium 49. Second world reserves of manganese, 30%of the world’s chrome, first world producer of uranium, one of 2012. and electronics)wouldsufferfromaglobalslowdown strength isalsoitsweakness, sinceitsGDPdependsonexports(palmoil to developitsgrowth, whichreached5.6%in2012and4.7%2013. This Southeast Asia,In annual growthrateof10%, whichdroppedto5%in2013. mineral wealth heavily dependent on raw materials (oil, gas) and the country has impressive Central Asia,In plans toputintoservicethe A380 onthelineParis-Abidjaninlate2014. trafficking andthefightagainstinequality development lieininfrastructuredevelopment, thefightagainstdrug is largelybasedonoilrevenues. Challengestomaintainitseconomic Similarly, inLatin America, growthinColombia(4.2%2012and2013) countries inmultilateralorganisations. between North and South, and to recognise the rightful place for emerging a majorroletoplayinthecomingyearsavoidtradeand currencywar the proliferationofbilateralagreements. In thissense, the WTO willhave created attheirannualsummitinJuly2014Brazil;on theotherhand, want todeveloptheirowninstitutions, like theirownmultilateralbank coming years:first, thecreationofahomogeneous blockofBRICSwhich global growth. Indeed, trade multilateralismmustavoidtwopitfallsinthe sense, thefailureofnegotiationsin WTO DohaRoundposesariskto than 1billionpeoplethatwilldeveloptonearly2.5in2030. Inthis is shiftingtotheSouthwithcreationofanewmiddleclassmore share ofemergingcountriesintheseexchanges. Inaddition, thedemand The strong growth of BENIVM countries will continue to increase the Exports fromdevelopingcountriesalreadyaccountfor48%ofworldtrade. 48. 48. d’Ivoire, experiencing aGDP per capita higher than that of South Korea. Rapport 2013, Les entreprises françaises et l’Afrique, amed after the “first” Ivorian miracle inthe 1960s, under the presidency of F -World Factbook 2013 . -World Factbook 2013 . 49 Kazakhstan hasanumberofadvantages. Itseconomyis . Kazakhstanexperiencedbetween2000and2006an Malaysia hasalsobenefitedfromthepriceofoilandgas CIAN 51 , F . rench C ouncil of élix H Investors in ouphouët-Boigny of C 50 . 47 48 .» Significant .» Significant . Air France .France Air Africa, D ecember ôte 23 The new wave of emerging countries 24 fondapol | l’innovation politique however, mentioning thecountriesunderconsideration more economicallystrategicareas, such as emergingcountries, without, Ministry ofForeign Affairs insistedthatdiplomatswillberedeployedin Singapore and the Philippines. In its responseto the Court of Auditors, the Minister avoidedgiantssuchasChina, India andIndonesia, togoto... However, duringhisfirsttripto AsiainOctober2012, theFrenchPrime and India(+14%), twomarketsalreadysaturatedwithforeignpresence. recent years. CertainlytheFrenchpresence hasincreasedinChina(+11%) Saharan Africa have even accountedfortwo-thirdsofthedownsizingin 55. Answer of the F Référé 54. 53. Référé countries thatwillbetheeconomicpowerhousesoftomorrow. France hasnotyetredeployeditsdiplomaticandcommercialresourcesto in recentyearsbythebilateraldisputeoverFlorenceCassezcase The FrencheconomicpresenceinMexicoislowandwasovershadowed only African countrynottohavebeencolonised, notevenbytheItalians. are formerPortuguesecolonies. NigeriaspeaksEnglish. SodoesEthiopia, the African countries, onlyCôted’IvoirespeaksFrench. Angola andMozambique France islittlepresentinthemarketsofBENIVM. Among thetrulyemerging countries F 52. F Africa), IndianOcean(-14%), Asia (-1%)andBrazil(-6%) Paradoxically, theFrenchpresencewasreducedin Africa (-8%inSouth to preservethenetworkwithoutreallyadaptingitnewissues.» May 2, 2013, «requiredtoreduceitscontrol, theMinistryhasinendattempted of Auditors concerningtheevolutionofFrenchdiplomaticnetworkon reduce publicspending. As highlightedintheréféré(judgment)ofCourt The Frenchdiplomaticnetworkisunfortunatelynotimmunetoefforts unbalanced, withabilateraldeficitwhichwidenedto€2.1billionin2012. insufficient intermsoftheeconomicpotentialthiscountry. Theyarealso 1%. Butwithtradevaluedat€3.3billion, oureconomicrelationsare commercial influence. Today theFrenchmarketsharein Vietnam isabout Unfortunately, theseoldtiescouldnotbetransformedintoeconomic and significant commercialactivity(textiles, tea, coffee, andrubberin particular). a long French presence of nearly a century, which was characterised by Asia, Bangladesh waspart of theBritish Empire. Vietnam experienced rance, acountry not sufficiently present economically in BENIVM rench woman jailed inM of the C of the C ourt of A ourt ourt of A ourt rench M uditors concerning the evolution of the diplomatic network, M uditors concerning the evolution of the diplomatic network, M inister of F exico. oreign Affairs to the C ourt of A ourt uditors, April 13, 2013. 55 . 54 ay 2,2013. ay 2,2013. . Postsinsub- 53 .

52 . In . In

National PetroleumCorp. Total isnotpresent has sincereopenedbutthegasfieldsareoperatedbyENIandChina by ItaliansandRussiansasthe«biggest…inthisfieldforadecade». It at themomentthatdiscoveriesofoilandgasdepositsweredescribed of thecommitteeFrenchandMexicanhigh-levelbusinessmen, which experienced resoundingfailuresinthisarea, asevidencedbythecollapse the financing of Mali! In Mozambique France closed its economic mission Minister ofForeign Affairs travelledto Addis Ababa, butforaconferenceon visit wasin2011forthesummitof . Earlyin 2013, the on internationalmeetingsintheregion. InEthiopia, thelastpresidential Vietnam Year 2013-2014. Sincethencontactshaveoccurreddepending 2013, theFrenchForeignMinisterdidtravelto Vietnam aspartofFrance- 1997 and2004. In2009theFrenchPrimeMinisterwentto Vietnam, andin In Vietnam, thelastpresidentialvisitstookplacein1993(20yearsago!), Minister ofEcology, Energy, SustainableDevelopmentandMaritime Affairs. ministerial visitwasthatofJean-LouisBorlooin2009, whenhewas new emerging countries called BENIVM. In Bangladesh, the last French A fewexamplesillustratethelackofinterestFrenchdiplomacyinthese 57. F collection and analysis of information about the market inwhich they operate. 56. Setin113 countries, they depend on the ministry of economy and finance and areresponsible for the country. Which CEOofaCAC 40quotedcompany to develop acommon businessculturebetween France andeach BENIVM - culture components. emerging militarily), industrial, commercial, technological, energyand military (fundamentalforpowerssuchas Vietnam andNigeriawhichare with frequentexchangesatministeriallevel. They wouldincludepolitical, partnerships wouldbebasedonbilateralpoliticalrelationshipsathighlevel, - distinct pillars: economies oftheBENIVM. The Frenchstrategycouldbebased onthree France musturgentlymakesignificanteffortsinthefutureemerging in Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City SME canreallyclaimtodaythatheisfamiliarwiththebusiness community 59. The exception inthis regard isP 58. CAC 40 means the 40 biggest F charge of catering inresidential camps of the Brazilian mining group V 40% of sales aremade, and inN rance isnevertheless present inM The creationofbilateral committeesofhighlevel businessmeninorder The establishmentofstrategic partnerships withBENIVM. These igeria. rench capitalisations on the P ascal P ozambique thanks to CIS iriou, CEO of P 59 , Lagos or Addis Ababa? In fact, France has iriou yards, which isbased in H , aM aris S 57 arseille based SMEled byR . tock Exchange. ale ($50m contract). 58 or of a large French orofalargeFrench o C hi M inh C egis Arnoux, in ity, where 56

25 The new wave of emerging countries 26 fondapol | l’innovation politique are primarilyconcernedwiththis BENIVM. support Aid Fund(FASEP) –foreconomicandindustrialprojectsin – COFACE, EmergingMarketsReserve(RPE), StudyandPrivateSector and - particular strengthsinurbanissues(water, transport...)andenergy. «offer», astheGermanandItalianexportersdo. Inthisrespect, Francehas BENIVM, prioritisingsectorsandhavingacoherentcohesiveFrench committees couldalsodoworkinstructuringtheFrenchexporteffort was dissolvedasaresultofthe«FlorenceCassez» 60. The committee was created for the Year of M horizons. and mobiliseCAC 40companies andSMEexporterstowardsthesenew in this context, to develop a new economic diplomacy in favour of BENIVM upcoming «champions»ofglobalisation. The interest ofFrancewouldbe, emergence of BENIVMandbe, for thefuture, avaluableallyforthese partnerships shouldaimtoaccompanytheeconomic andpolitical and strategic, inparticulardiplomaticand military, partnerships. These In thissense, Franceisexpectedtoconclude withthesecountriespolitical will have, inthisrespect, thenecessaryfunding. take partinthepoliticaldimensionofmajorinternational relationships and not onlybesignificantfiguresintheglobaleconomy,to butwillalsowant by newemergingcountries:BENIVM. These countries, liketheBRICS, will The BRICS, now emerged, will be gradually replaced over the next decade BENIVM, focusonthesecountriesandourbilateralrelationships. capital andpublicweight, should, becausetheirinterestliesinthefuture The mainFrenchCEOs, whohaveaspecialresponsibilitygiventheir Luanda orMaputo. network, andtheabilityofourcompaniestoseizeopportunitiesinLagos, in Africa isalarmingandmustimmediatelycallinto questionourdiplomatic fact ourprioritypartnersoftomorrow. InthisrespectFrenchdisinvestment and tounderstandthatsomecountriesstillconsideredas«developing»arein administration arenowabletochangethediplomaticandbusinesspriorities, of mentalityinFrance. Indeed, theyassumethatthegovernmentand These proposals, althoughgeneral, requireinfactaCopernicanchange Safran. I 61. InA Florence C diplomacy”. The prioritygiven inourtools-embassies, trade missions, Ubifrance the officesofFrenchDevelopment Agency-andourinstruments ugust 2014, the M t was dissolved after the remarks of P assez affair. The Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of the Economy inister of F oreign Affairs created a“D resident N 61 exico inF . icolas Sarkozy about justice inM rance, and chaired by Jean-P eputy Secretary G 60 case. These business eneral” to lead this “economic aul H exico related to the erteman, CEO of

Our publications

The competition policy: a plus for industry Emmanuel Combe, November 2014 2014 European Elections (2): rise of the FN, decline of the UMP and the Breton vote Jérôme Fourquet, October 2014 2014 European Elections (1): the left in pieces Jérôme Fourquet, October 2014 Political Innovation 2014 Fondation pour l’innovation politique, October 2014 Energy/climate: the case for an effective policy Albert Bressand, September 2014 Global urbanisation. An opportunity for France Laurence Daziano, July 2014 What can we expect from monetary policy? Pascal Salin, May 2014 Change is constant Suzanne Baverez and Jean Sénié, May 2014 Too many emigrants? Perspectives on those who leave France Julien Gonzalez, May 2014 European public opinion in 2014 Dominique Reynié, April 2014 Tax better to earn more Robin Rivaton, April 2014 The innovative State (2): Diversifying the senior civil service Kevin Brookes and Benjamin Le Pendeven, March 2014 The innovative State (1): Strengthening the role of think tanks Kevin Brookes and Benjamin Le Pendeven, March 2014 The case for a new tax deal Gianmarco Monsellato, March 2014 An end to begging with children Julien Damon, March 2014

27 Low cost: an economic and democratic revolution Emmanuel Combe, February 2014 Fair access to cancer therapies Nicolas Bouzou – February 2014 Reforming teachers’ status Luc Chatel, January 2014 Social impact bonds: a social finance tool Yan de Kerorguen, December 2013 Debureaucratisation through trust to promote growth Pierre Pezziardi, Serge Soudoplatoff and Xavier Quérat-Hément - November 2013 Les valeurs des Franciliens Guénaëlle Gault, october 2013 Settling a student strike: case study in Quebec Jean-Patrick Brady and Stéphane Paquin, October 2013 A single employment contract incorporating severance pay Charles Beigbeder, September 2013 European Opinion in 2013 Dominique Reynié, September 2014 The new emerging countries: the ‘BENIVM countries* Laurence Daziano, July 2013 Energy transition in Europe: good intentions and poor calculations Albert Bressand, July 2013 Minimising travel: a different way of working and living Julien Damon, June 2013 KAPITAL. Rebuilding Industry Christian Saint-Étienne and Robin Rivaton, April 2013 A code of ethics for politics and public officials in France Les Arvernes and the Fondation pour l’innovation politique, April 2013 The middle classes in emerging countries Julien Damon, April 2013 Political Innovation 2013 Fondation pour l’innovation politique, March 2013 Reviving our industry through automation (2): issues Robin Rivaton, December 2012 Reviving our industry through automation (1): strategies Robin Rivaton, December 2012

28 Taxation a key issue for competitiveness Aldo Cardoso, Michel Didier, Bertrand Jacquillat, Dominique Reynié and Gré- goire Sentilhes, December 2012 An alternative monetary policy to resolve the crisis Nicolas Goetzmann, December 2012 Has the new tax policy made the solidarity tax on wealth unconstitutional? Aldo Cardoso, November 2012 Taxation: why and how a rich country is a poor country ... Bertrand Jacquillat, October 2012 Youth and Sustainable Development Fondapol, Nomadéis, , June 2012 Philanthropy. Entrepreneurs in solidarity Francis Charhon, May/June 2012 Poverty statistics: a sense of proportion Julien Damon, May 2012 Freeing up funding of the economy Robin Rivaton, April 2012 Savings for social housing Julie Merle, April 2012 European opinion in 2012 Dominique Reynié, March 2012 Shared values Dominique Reynié, March 2012 The right in Europe Dominique Reynié, February 2012 Political Innovation 2012 Fondation pour l’innovation politique, January 2012 Free schools: initiative, autonomy and responsibility Charles Feuillerade, January 2012 French energy policy (2): strategies Rémy Prud’homme, January 2012 French energy policy: issues (1) Rémy Prud’homme, January 2012 Revolution of values and globalization Luc Ferry, January 2012 The End of social democracy in Europe? Sir Stuart Bell, December 2011

29 Industry regulation: accountability through non-governmental rules Jean-Pierre Teyssier, December 2011 Hospitality Emmanuel Hirsch, December 2011 12 ideas for 2012 Fondation pour l’innovation politique, December 2011 The middle class and housing Julien Damon, December 2011 Three proposals to reform the healthcare system Nicolas Bouzou, November 2011 The new parliament: the French law of 23 July 2008 revising the Constitution Jean-Félix de Bujadoux, November 2011 Responsibility Alain-Gérard Slama, November 2011 The middle class vote Élisabeth Dupoirier, November 2011 From annuity to competition Emmanuel Combe, October 2011 The middle class and savings Nicolas Pécourt, October 2011 A profile of the middle class Laure Bonneval, Jérôme Fourquet and Fabienne Gomant, October 2011 Morals, ethics and ethical conduct Michel Maffesoli, October 2011 Forgetting Communism, changing era Stéphane Courtois, October 2011 World youths Dominique Reynié, September 2011 Increasing the purchasing power through competition Emmanuel Combe, September 2011 Religious freedom Henri Madelin, September 2011 The ways to a balanced budget Jean-Marc Daniel, September 2011 Ecology, values and democracy Corine Pelluchon, August 2011 Valoriser les monuments historiques : de nouvelles stratégies Wladimir Mitrofanoff and Christiane Schmuckle-Mollard, July 2011

30 Opposing technosciences: their networks Eddy Fougier, July 2011 Opposing technosciences: their reasons Sylvain Boulouque, July 2011 Fraternity Paul Thibaud, June 2011 Digital transformation Jean-Pierre Corniou, June 2011 Commitment Dominique Schnapper, May 2011 Liberty, Equality, Fraternity André Glucksmann - May 2011 What future for our defense industry Guillaume Lagane, May 2011 Corporate social responsibility Aurélien Acquier, Jean-Pascal Gond et Jacques Igalens, May 2011 Islamic finance Lila Guermas-Sayegh, May 2011 The state of the right Deutshcland Patrick Moreau, April 2011 The state of the right Slovaquia Étienne Boisserie, April 2011 Who owns the French public debt ? Guillaume Leroy, April 2011 The precautionary principle in the word Nicolas de Sadeleer, March 2011 Understanding the Tea Party Henri Hude, March 2011 The state of the right Netherlands Niek Pas, March 2011 Agricultural productivity and water quality Gérard Morice, March 2011 Water: from volume to value Jean-Louis Chaussade, March 2011 Water: how to treat micro-pollutants? Philippe Hartemann, March 2011 Water: global challenges, French perspectives Gérard Payen, March 2011

31 Irrigation for sustainable agriculture Jean-Paul Renoux, March 2011 Water management: towards new models Antoine Frérot, March 2011 The state of the right Austria Patrick Moreau, Februay 2011 Employees’ Interest sustaining purchasing power and employment Jacques Perche and Antoine Pertinax, February 2011 The Franco-German tandem and the euro crisis Wolfgang Glomb, February 2011 2011, World Youths* Fondation pour l’innovation politique, January 2011 The European opinion in 2011 Dominique Reynié, January 2011 Public service 2.0 Thierry Weibel, January 2011 The state of the right: Bulgaria* Antony Todorov, December 2010 The return of sortition in politics Gil Delannoi, December 2010 The People’s moral ability Raymond Boudon, November 2010 Academia in the land of capital Bernard Belloc and Pierre-François Mourier, November 2010 Achieving a new Common Agricultural Policy* Bernard Bachelier, November 2010 Food Security: a global challenge* Bernard Bachelier, November 2010 The unknown virtues of low cost carriers Emmanuel Combe, November 2010 Political Innovation 2011 Fondation pour l’innovation politique, November 2010 Overcoming the Defense budget issue Guillaume Lagane, October 2010 The state of the right: Spain* Joan Marcet, October 2010 The virtues of competition David Sraer, September 2010

32 Internet, politics and citizen coproduction Robin Berjon, September 2010 The state of the right: Poland* Dominika Tomaszewska-Mortimer, August 2010 The state of the right: Sweden and Denmark* Jacob Christensen, July 2010 What is the police up to? Mathieu Zagrodzki, July 2010 The state of the right: Italy* Sofia Ventura, July 2010 Banking crisis, public debt: a German perspective Wolfgang Glomb, July 2010 Public debt, public concerns Jérôme Fourquet, June 2010 Banking regulations for sustainable growth* Nathalie Janson, June 2010 Four proposals to renew our agricultural model Pascal Perri, May 2010 2010 regional elections: where have all the voters gone? Pascal Perrineau, May 2010 The European opinion in 2010 Dominique Reynié, May 2010 The Netherlands: the populist temptation* Christophe de Voogd, May 2010 Four ideas to boost spending power Pascal Perri, April 2010 The state of the right: Great Britain* David Hanley, April 2010 Reinforce the regions’ economic role Nicolas Bouzou, March 2010 Reforming the Constitution to rein in government debt Jacques Delpla, February 2010 A strategy to reduce France’s public debt Nicolas Bouzou, February 2010 Catholic Church policy: liberty vs liberalism Émile Perreau-Saussine, October 2009 2009 European elections* Corinne Deloy, Dominique Reynié and Pascal Perrineau, September 2009

33 The Nazi-Soviet alliance, 70 years on Stéphane Courtois, July 2009 The administrative state and liberalism: a French story Lucien Jaume, June 2009 European development policy* Jean-Michel Debrat, June 2009 Academics: defending their status, illustrating a status quo David Bonneau and Bruno Bensasson, May 2009 Fighting age discrimination in the workplace Elise Muir, June 2009 Stemming the protectionist tide in Europe* Nicolas Bouzou, March 2009 Civil service vs civil society Dominique Reynié, March 2009 The European opinion in 2009 Dominique Reynié, March 2009 Working on Sundays: Sunday workers’ perspectives Dominique Reynié, January 2009

*The titles marked with an asterisk are available in English.

34 35 The new wave of emerging countries Needs your support

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