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An Investigation of Dividend Smoothing Behavior in CIVETS

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An Investigation of Dividend Smoothing Behavior in CIVETS An Investigation of Dividend Smoothing Behavior in CIVETS MSc in Banking and Finance Vaia P. Chatzipoulka ID 1103100046 Athanasia C. Moustakidou ID 1103100052 15/10/2012 ABSTRACT The principal aim of this study was to assess the dividend behavior of firms in the group of countries named CIVETS, which is formed from the initials of the countries of Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa. These countries are characterized by their highly economically developing markets. As it is widely noticed, developing countries offer high dividend yields in an attempt to attract institutional investors; and, even if they have great need of financing for investing, they do not cut dividends sharply, because they will lose investors. Thus, they choose to follow a more smoothed dividend policy, in order to adjust variations in dividend payments to the variations in earnings streams. Specifically, this study tests the presence of dividend smoothing by implementing two alternative measures of smoothing based on the Lintner’s model (1956). For this purpose, 472 firms listed on the Colombian, Indonesian, Vietnamese, Egyptian, Turkish and South Africa’s Stock Exchange were investigated over a 21- year period, from 1990-2011. The empirical results of this study show evidence that CIVETS companies pay smoothed dividends. However, the degree of dividend smoothing differs among CIVETS countries. Finally, the outcome indicates that the Lintner’s dividend smoothing model does not fully explain the dividend behavior in CIVETS countries. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We would like to thank Dr. Andrianos Tsekrekos, who supervised this dissertation, for his helpful comments and suggestions throughout this project. All limitations and errors related to this research are attributed to the students alone. 2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 4 DESCRIPTION OF INVESTIGATION AREA ................................................................................. 6 THEORITICAL CONSIDERATION AND PRIOR RESEARCH......................................................... 13 MEASURES OF DIVIDEND SMOOTHING................................................................................ 19 DATA AND SUMMARY STATISTICS ....................................................................................... 21 Sample selection ............................................................................................................. 21 Summary Statistics .......................................................................................................... 22 Robustness ...................................................................................................................... 29 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 30 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 31 APPENDIX............................................................................................................................ 34 TABLE 1: Summary Statistics resulted from the regressions of each company .................. 34 FIGURE 1: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of Colombia ................ 66 FIGURE 2: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of Indonesia ................ 67 FIGURE 3: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of Vietnam .................. 68 FIGURE 4: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of Egypt ...................... 69 FIGURE 5: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of Turkey .................... 70 FIGURE 6: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of South Africa ............ 71 FIGURE 7: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of CIVETS(5) ................ 72 FIGURE 8: Histograms of SOA and Relative Volatility estimations of CIVETS(10) .............. 73 TABLE 2: Mean and median tests for Columbia ................................................................ 74 TABLE 3: Mean and median tests for Indonesia ............................................................... 75 TABLE 4: Mean and median tests for Vietnam ................................................................. 76 TABLE 5: Mean and median tests for Egypt ...................................................................... 77 TABLE 6: Mean and median tests for Turkey .................................................................... 78 TABLE 7: Mean and median tests for South Africa ........................................................... 79 TABLE 8: Mean and median tests for CIVETS(10).............................................................. 80 TABLE 9: Mean and median tests for CIVETS (5)............................................................... 81 3 INTRODUCTION The topic of dividend policy is one of the most enduring issues in modern corporate finance. A wide range of firm and market characteristics have been proposed as potentially important in determining dividend policy, as there is a great number of competing theoretical approaches to dividend policy. Another phenomenon closely related to dividend policy, which also seems to be an important puzzle, is dividend smoothing. During the last decades several researches have been conducted to provide broad empirical evidence that firms smooth their dividends. However, explanations for dividend smoothing have proved rather elusive, as the main factors influencing the degree of dividend smoothing is a matter of intense debate for the academics, the managers and the shareholders. The smoothness of corporate dividends relative to earnings and cash flows was principally studied by Lintner (1956). In his early empirical research, Lintner developed a model of dividend policy in which he proposed that firms adjust their dividends slowly to maintain a target long-run payout ratio. One motivation for this partial adjustment, suggested by Miller and Modigliani (1961), is that managers base their dividend decisions on their perception of the permanent component of earnings, and avoid adjusting dividends based on temporary or cyclical fluctuations. Such a policies lead to dividend payouts that have much lower volatility than earnings over short time horizons. On the other hand, Modigliani and Miller (1961) showed that if capital markets are perfect, then dividend policy is considered to be irrelevant. However, dividend policy makers find it difficult to reconcile with the stock price reaction to dividend changes and with the empirical fact that the market imperfections are economically significant and important drivers of corporate financial policy. Another key difficulty in providing a theoretical model for optimal smoothing dividend policy has to do with the investment policy and optimal leverage or cash position of the firm that may lead to non-smooth behavior. In accordance to the standard trade-off theory of capital structure and payout policy, the firms should maintain a target level of leverage that balances the tax benefits of financing with the potential costs of financial distress. Furthermore, it is generally noticed that theories of why firms smooth their dividends are rather limited and primarily based on either asymmetric information or agency considerations. Other studies suggest smoothing may be related to external financing costs or tax planning. In general, the asymmetric information models imply that firms which face more uncertainty and greater information asymmetry tend to smooth more. Additionally, dividend smoothing may also arise from an effort to avoid costly external finance. As far as agency- based models are concerned, it is proved that there is a positive relationship between smoothing and the level of dividends, and between smoothing and the severity of the free cash flow problem. 4 The empirical work on dividend smoothing behavior has generally been focused on developed stock markets such as the US. The examination of dividend smoothing in emerging stock markets has been much more limited. What is more, firms and market characteristics that may influence dividend policy, and therefore smoothing of dividends, may actually be more possible to be present in developing markets than in developed ones. This fact provided the central motivation for the present study, which seeks to empirically examine whether dividend smoothing phenomenon is evident in other economies with significantly different features. Another objective of this research is to contribute to the relative literature by providing a detailed analysis of dividend policy in emerging markets that have been poorly analyzed until recently. In particular, the area under investigation is Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa, which are designed as a group of developing countries named “CIVETS” in 2009. With many developed countries facing nowadays economic distress due to financial economic crises worldwide, CIVETS countries are being targeted as a group of emerging economies that are most likely to experience sustained growth. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts annual growth rates averaging 4.9% for the CIVETS countries over the next two decades. The main characteristics of CIVETS members are a growing, very young population on average under 27 year-old that is technologically sophisticated and consumption- driven. Additionally,
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