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The Mint Economies FT SPECIAL REPORT The Mint Economies Tuesday September 22 2015 www.ft.com/reports | @ftreports Inside Central bank needs to Sweet flavour can still entice price in political risk Turkey, once described as Europe’s Bric, has Despite tough times, annushorribilis.Hisadministrationhas been hit by corruption scandals, lost its golden glow the emerging markets slowing growth, a stalling economy,and Page 2 of Mexico, Indonesia, public outrage over a mass killing of students and the escape from Is EM the only Nigeria and Turkey can jail of one of the country’s leading acronym that matters? druglords. still draw investors, As a result, opinion polls suggest that How currencies have writes Gideon Rachman the president is now Mexico’s least been badly affected by popularforsome40years. the dollar bull run One spark of hope, however, is that Page 2 here was a time when coun- stronger growth north of the border tries all over the world might spur demand for Mexican goods. State in need of aspired to be one of the The country may also continue to Brics. The acronym com- benefit from rising labour costs in financial guidance T prised Brazil, Russia, India, China,whichmakesMexicolooklikean Nigeria’s post-election China (later adding South Africa). appealingbaseformanufacturerswant- optimism fades as fiscal These countries seemed to embody the ingtoexporttotheUS. economicdynamismandpromiseofthe The troubles of the Chinese economy policy remains unclear world’semergingmarkets. are more of a threat to Indonesia. As a Page 3 So there was plenty of investor inter- country in the Asia-Pacific region and a est when, in 2014, Jim O’Neill — the major exporter of commodities, Indo- The next generation former chief economist at Goldman nesia has benefited from many years of of entrepreneurs Sachs and the man who had coined the strongChinesegrowth. Self-starters give an term Brics — began to champion the With China slowing, Indonesia needs economic prospects of another group of imaginative and confident leadership. insight into which countries:theMinteconomies. So it is unfortunate that the current sectors will drive growth Forthisselectgroupoffour—Mexico, president Joko Widodo is increasingly Page 4 Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey — it was being portrayed as ineffectual and diffi- clearly a blessing to be marketed as the dent. Four national stories nextbigthing. More broadly, all the Mints are now Many investors thought the Mints suffering from the fact that investors told in numbers sounded simply delicious. This was across the world are cooling on “emerg- How the countries are anothergroupoffourcountrieswiththe ingmarkets”. doing characteristics that defined the original But while classification as an emerg- Brics: large populations, strong growth ing market might not be regarded as a against rates, rapidly emerging middle classes strong selling point at the moment, the each andentrepreneurialcultures. factors that have driven emerging- other, The past 18 months, however, have market success over the past two gener- been disillusioning for fans of both the ationshavenotdisappeared. from BricsandtheMints.Brazil,SouthAfrica In the medium term, therefore, GDP to and Russia are in the middle of insurgency that has claimed about fresh elections on November 1, as he All at sea: a Pemex oil platform globalisation, expanding international levels of economic crises and China is growing at 20,000 lives and created 1.5m refugees. struggles to secure the parliamentary complex at Campeche Bay, Mexico. trade, relatively low labour costs and a fraud itsslowestpaceforageneration. Thenewgovernmentseemstobetaking majority he would need to change the The falling oil price is a problem for rising middle class are once again likely Page 5 The Mints also seem troubled. The the fight to Boko Haram with renewed constitution and bolster the powers of Mint nations — Susana González/Bloomberg toproveapotentcombination. problems in each of the four countries energy,butitwillbealongstruggle. the presidency. involved are quite specific. However, in Some of the problems facing Nigeria For a decade after 2003, when Mr broad terms, they tend to include are present in the other Mints. The fall- Erdogan came to power, Turkey political instability and slowing eco- ing oil price is a problem for both Mex- enjoyed strong and non-inflationary nomic growth. Investors who were once ico and Indonesia, both of which are economic growth. That boosted the all too happy to ignore the structural large exporters. Islamist militancy has Turkish leader’s reputation for compe- problems of these emerging markets been a problem in Indonesia in the past, tence and allowed investors to ignore cannowseelittleelse. although things are relatively quiet for someofhismoreeccentricviews—such Inevitably, the picture is mixed and themoment. as his oft-stated belief that there is an there is some good news out there as international “interest rate lobby” that well. Nigeria, in particular, can point to is agitating for Turkey to have inappro- its successful presidential election ear- priatelyhighborrowingcosts. lier this year. This saw the first peaceful The problems these four In the current economic environ- transition of power following an elec- countries face include ment, however, Turkey needs compe- tionfromoneheadofstatetoanotherin tent economic management that the 55 years since Nigeria’s declaration political instability and inspires international confidence. Infla- ofindependence. slowing economic growth tion is at about 8 per cent, unemploy- Better still, the new president, ment is at 11.3 per cent, and the country Muhammadu Buhari, seems to be Turkey, however, is suffering badly is running a large current-account defi- genuinely committed to tackling the from the conflict in neighbouring Syria. cit of about 6 per cent of GDP. It looks endemic corruption that has held The prolonged civil war there has cre- vulnerabletocapitalflight. Nigeriabackfordecades. ated millions of refugees, some 2m of Political leadership is also now an Nonetheless, in the short term, the whomarenowinTurkey. issue in both Mexico and Indonesia. country faces several formidable eco- TheoldgrievancesbetweentheTurk- When President Enrique Peña Nieto nomic and political challenges. The fall ish state and the Kurdish militants of first came to power in 2012, he was in the oil price has slashed Nigeria’s the PKK have also flared again into vio- hailed both at home and abroad as a export earnings and government lent conflict. And the general atmos- charismaticanddynamicleader. revenues. phere of political uncertainty has been Over the past year, however, the Nigeria must also cope with further fostered by President Recep Mexican leader has had what the Queen Boko Haram, the extremist Islamist Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to go for of England might have described as an Nigeria’s millennials plug gap in skills and funding jobs in Nairobi, Dakar, Johannesburg or Entrepreneurship Cairo,orstayedoninLondon,whereshe had spent the better part of 17 years Energy executive returns to studyingandworking. her homeland to create a Moving back home to Lagos last year, however,wasachanceforhertotesther start-up that could benefit feeling that her country is “a land of all, reports Maggie Fick opportunity”. Rolake Akinkugbe heads an incubator Last month, Ms Akinkugbe officially whose name means ‘light has come’ added a “side-gig” to her day job — as One characteristic the Mint economies head of energy and natural resources at promising sustainable energy projects share is that they have younger popula- the Lagos-based investment bank FBN with the investments they need to get tions than their more economically Capital — by founding what she says is off the ground. The incubator is called developed counterparts around the sub-Saharan Africa’s first “curated off- InaTidé, which means “light has come” world. gridenergyinvestmentplatform”. in the Yoruba language that is widely As well as being an appealing target Instead of giving up her work for FBN spoken in south-west Nigeria. It will for foreign companies looking for new Capital — sourcing and structuring source financial and technical expertise consumers for their products, Mexico, funding for Nigerian energy companies forsmall,off-the-gridrenewableenergy Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey are fer- — she is taking her knowledge of the projectsacrossthecontinent. tilebreedinggroundsfortalentedyoung commercial and strategic aspects of the Ms Akinkugbe thinks that small people who might have considered — or sector and applying this to fill a gap in projects—oftenlessthan5megawatts— have — careers in big national or inter- themarket. using renewable solutions such as nationalcompanies. The35-year-oldworkedastheheadof biomass fuels can have a huge social However,insteadofbeingtemptedby energy, oil and gas research at the pan- impact, given the poor access to what many consider safer careers, African lender Ecobank before she was power supplies across sub-Saharan members of these countries’ millennial hired by FBN to lead the investment Africa. generation — those born since the early banks’ relationships with companies Butthepriority,shesays,istoprovide 1980s—seemtobedeterminedtosetup working in energy and natural funding to promising entrepreneurs theirownbusinesses. resources. withcommerciallyviableideas.“Alotof Nigeria-born Rolake Akinkugbe is Having seen the obstacles that estab- these guys will tell you that’s the main one example (and you can read about lished companies and start-ups alike reason their
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