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GONCALVES GONCALVES THE BUSINESS Emerging and Frontier Economics Collection EXPERT PRESS Philip J. Romero and Jeffrey A. Edwards, Editors DIGITAL LIBRARIES Markets The New Frontline for Global Trade EBOOKS FOR • BUSINESS STUDENTS Marcus Goncalves • José Alves ALVES Curriculum-oriented, born- Goncalves and Alves’ work is a very interesting and digital books for advanced business students, written promising book for the development themes of emerging by academic thought markets. The style and quality of the material is worthy Emerging leaders who translate real- of respect, providing a clear analysis of the internation- world business experience al markets and global development of various economic into course readings and and commercial relations and trading routes. —Yurii reference materials for and Frontier students expecting to tackle Pozniak, International Management Consultant at management and leadership Ukroboronservis, Kiev, Ukraine. challenges during their Emerging and Frontier Markets: The New Frontline Markets professional careers. for Global Trade brings together a collection of insights POLICIES BUILT and a new outlook of the dynamics happening between AND FRONTIER MARKETS EMERGING BY LIBRARIANS The New Frontline for the emerging and the advanced markets. The book pro- • Unlimited simultaneous usage vides also an excellent, easy to read and straight-to-the Global Trade • Unrestricted downloading point economic and political description of the MENA, and printing BRICS, ASEAN, and CIVETS markets. A description that • Perpetual access for a should interest every person willing to invest, work or just one-time fee • No platform or acquire a deep understanding of the emerging markets maintenance fees economic and political conditions. —Réda Massoudi, BU • Free MARC records Director Management and Transformation Consult- • No license to execute ing, LMS Organization & Human Resources. Casa- The Digital Libraries are a blanca, Morocco. comprehensive, cost-effective way to deliver practical Marcus Goncalves is an Associate Professor of Man- Marcus Goncalves treatments of important agement and Chair of the International Business José Alves business issues to every Program at Nichols College, with 28 years of interna- student and faculty member. tional management consulting experience in Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. José Alves, is an Associate Professor of Management For further information, a at the Faculty of Business, Government, and Social free trial, or to order, contact: Work of the University of Saint Joseph, Macau. [email protected] www.businessexpertpress.com/librarians Economics Collection Philip J. Romero and Jeffrey A. Edwards, Editors ISBN: 978-1-63157-019-3 Business Expert Press was one of the premiere publishers that began in 2008 offering DRM-Free e-content – eBooks with absolutely no restrictions. Built by a panel of librarians, we believed that students, researchers, teachers and professionals around the world would benefit beyond measure by accessing our DRM-free eBooks. Continuing on this success, BEP pushes forward with this mission of support by providing Open Access to the titles below. These books were chosen to increase discoverability of our authors’ work, and are listed in The Directory of Open Access. BEP’s Open Access titles are governed by the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Emerging and Frontier Markets Emerging and Frontier Markets The New Frontline for Global Trade Marcus Goncalves and José Alves Emerging and Frontier Markets: The New Frontline for Global Trade Copyright © Business Expert Press, LLC, 2015. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other except for brief quotations, not to exceed 400 words, without the prior permission of the publisher. First published in 2015 by Business Expert Press, LLC 222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017 www.businessexpertpress.com ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-019-3 (paperback) ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-020-9 (e-book) Business Expert Press Economics Collection Collection ISSN: 2163-761X (print) Collection ISSN: 2163-7628 (electronic) Cover and interior design by Exeter Premedia Services Private Ltd., Chennai, India First edition: 2015 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America. To my forever-beautiful wife, Carla, and my son Samir, both living here on earth, and to my children Andrea and Joshua, who are now living in Heaven. I also would like to express my gratitude to my father, Mario M. Goncalves, for planting the seeds of research in me while a child, and to my father-in-law, Don Fernando Davalos, for the many insightful discussions on foreign affairs. To God be the glory! Marcus Goncalves Summer 2014 Abstract In today’s fast-paced global economy, markets are sifting very swiftly, and the balance of trade and even political influence are following suit. It is important, therefore, that international business professionals, academics and students of global trade and international markets, and anyone inter- ested on the latest developments taking place in global trade to be able to understand, compare and contrast the primary categories of emerg- ing market business development, including its sub-categories, or maybe more appropriately, its sibling, the frontier markets. There is no doubt that today’s global markets present both great opportunity and significant risk for business development and invest- ment. Established and mature markets have been supposedly providing safety and security for labor and capital, but the last seven years or so have changed such perspective when we witness advanced economies strug- gling with debt and lack of growth, while competition is at an all time high. Hence, understanding emerging and frontier markets present some of the most significant opportunities for international business profes- sionals and investors. This book, an expanded and enhanced version of the Part II of our “big” book published a few months ago (Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets: Perspectives for Globalization), dives deeper at the opportunities and challenges faced by emerging and fron- tier markets, comparing the risks and opportunities in its main markets so that students and researchers, as well as investors and casual readers interested in this topic, can gain a better understanding of which markets provide the best opportunities. Our hope is that readers will find this information useful in their forward-looking international business careers and business strategies. Marcus Goncalves, Fall 2014. Keywords ASEAN, BRICS, CIVETS, EAGLE, emerging markets, frontier markets, global trade, globalization, international business, international trade, MENA, trading blocs Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................................................xi Chapter 1 The IMF is Being Hit y BRICSb .......................................1 Chapter 2 CIVETS: A New Strong and Fast Emerging Market .......41 Chapter 3 The Strength of ASEAN conomiesE ................................73 Chapter 4 Can MENA’s Rise be Powered by BRICS? ....................103 Chapter 5 Frontier Markets: The Next Emerging Markets .............143 About the Authors ...............................................................................161 Advance Quotes for Emerging and Frontier Markets .............................163 Notes..................................................................................................165 References ...........................................................................................169 Index .................................................................................................187 Acknowledgments There were many people who helped us during the process of writing this book. It would be impossible to keep track of them all. Therefore, to all that we have forgotten to list, please don’t hold it against us! We would like to thank Dr. Patrick Barron, professor at the Graduate School of Banking at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and of Austrian economics at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City for his contri- butions on the issue of currency wars in chapter 5. Many thanks also to ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar, former diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service with assignments in the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, and Turkey for his valuable insights and contributions to foreign policy issues in the MENA region. CHAPTER 1 The IMF is Being Hit by BRICS Overview According to a recent study from the Peterson Institute,* a think-tank, from 1960 to the late 1990s just 30 percent of countries in the developing world, for which figures are available, managed to increase their output per person faster than the United States, thus achieving what is called “catch-up growth.” That catching-up was somewhat apathetic; the gap closed at just 1.5 percent a year. From the late 1990s, however, the tables were turned. The researchers found 73 percent of emerging economies outpacing the United States, and doing so on average by 3.3 percent a year. Some of this was due to slower growth in America, but not all. This outstanding growth of emerging markets in general and in partic- ular the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has trans- formed the global economy
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