Deep Learning for Digital Typhoon Exploring a Typhoon Satellite Image Dataset Using Deep Learning
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Cruising Guide to the Philippines
Cruising Guide to the Philippines For Yachtsmen By Conant M. Webb Draft of 06/16/09 Webb - Cruising Guide to the Phillippines Page 2 INTRODUCTION The Philippines is the second largest archipelago in the world after Indonesia, with around 7,000 islands. Relatively few yachts cruise here, but there seem to be more every year. In most areas it is still rare to run across another yacht. There are pristine coral reefs, turquoise bays and snug anchorages, as well as more metropolitan delights. The Filipino people are very friendly and sometimes embarrassingly hospitable. Their culture is a unique mixture of indigenous, Spanish, Asian and American. Philippine charts are inexpensive and reasonably good. English is widely (although not universally) spoken. The cost of living is very reasonable. This book is intended to meet the particular needs of the cruising yachtsman with a boat in the 10-20 meter range. It supplements (but is not intended to replace) conventional navigational materials, a discussion of which can be found below on page 16. I have tried to make this book accurate, but responsibility for the safety of your vessel and its crew must remain yours alone. CONVENTIONS IN THIS BOOK Coordinates are given for various features to help you find them on a chart, not for uncritical use with GPS. In most cases the position is approximate, and is only given to the nearest whole minute. Where coordinates are expressed more exactly, in decimal minutes or minutes and seconds, the relevant chart is mentioned or WGS 84 is the datum used. See the References section (page 157) for specific details of the chart edition used. -
Rapid Intensification of DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1 Hurricanes Is Particularly Problematic
WILL GLOBAL WARMING MAKE HURRICANE FORECASTING MORE DIFFICULT? KERRY EMANUEL As the climate continues to warm, hurricanes may intensify more rapidly just before striking land, making hurricane forecasting more difficult. ince 1971, tropical cyclones have claimed about cyclone damage, rising on average 6% yr–1 in inflation- 470,000 lives, or roughly 10,000 lives per year, and adjusted U.S. dollars between 1970 and 2015 (CRED S caused 700 billion U.S. dollars in damages globally 2016). Thus, appreciable increases in forecast skill and/ (CRED 2016). Mortality is strongly dominated by a or decreases of vulnerability, for example, through small number of extremely lethal events; for example, better preparedness, building codes, and evacuation just three storms caused more than 56% of the tropical procedures, will be required to avoid increases in cyclone–related deaths in the United States since 1900. cyclone-related casualties. Tropical cyclone mortality and injury have been Unfortunately, there has been little improvement reduced by improved forecasts and preparedness, espe- in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over the period cially in developed countries (Arguez and Elsner 2001; from 1990 to the present (DeMaria et al. 2014). While Peduzzi et al. 2012), but through much of the world hurricane track forecasts using numerical prediction this has been offset by large changes in coastal popula- models have steadily improved, there has been only tions. For example, Peduzzi et al. (2012) estimate that slow improvement in forecasts of intensity by these the global population exposed to tropical cyclone same models. Reasons for this include stiff resolu- hazards increased by almost threefold between 1970 tion requirements for the numerical simulations of and 2010, and they project this trend to continue for tropical cyclone intensity (Rotunno et al. -
An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on A
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on a Modified Holland Vortex Model Lvqing Wang 1,2,3, Zhaozi Zhang 1,*, Bingchen Liang 1,2,*, Dongyoung Lee 4 and Shaoyang Luo 3 1 Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China; [email protected] 2 College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China 3 NAVAL Research Academy, Beijing 100070, China; [email protected] 4 Korea Institute of Ocean, Science and Technology, Busan 600-011, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (B.L.) Received: 20 January 2020; Accepted: 23 February 2020; Published: 6 March 2020 Abstract: A combination of the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model and a modified Holland vortex model is developed and studied in the present work. The Holland 2010 model is modified with two improvements: the first is a new scaling parameter, bs, that is formulated with information about the maximum wind speed (vms) and the typhoon’s forward movement velocity (vt); the second is the introduction of an asymmetric typhoon structure. In order to convert the wind speed, as reconstructed by the modified Holland model, from 1-min averaged wind inputs into 10-min averaged wind inputs to force the WW3 model, a gust factor (gf) is fitted in accordance with practical test cases. Validation against wave buoy data proves that the combination of the two models through the gust factor is robust for the estimation of typhoon waves. -
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model Msc Thesis
Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis Martin Janssens Machine Learning of Atmospheric Turbulence in a Variational Multiscale Model MSc Thesis by Martin Janssens to obtain the degree of Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology, to be defended publicly on Tuesday August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM. Student number: 4275780 Project duration: September 16, 2018 – August 28, 2019 Supervisor: Dr. S. J. Hulshoff, TU Delft Thesis committee: Dr. R. P.Dwight, TU Delft Dr. B. Chen, TU Delft An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Cover image: The Starry Night, Vincent van Gogh Abstract Today’s leading projections of climate change predicate on atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs). Since the atmosphere consists of a staggering range of scales that impact global trends, but computational constraints prevent many of these scales from being directly represented in numerical simulations, GCMs require “parameterisations” - models for the influence of unresolved processes on the resolved scales. State- of-the-art parameterisations are commonly based on combinations of phenomenological arguments and physics, and are of considerably lower fidelity than the resolved simulation. In particular, the parameter- isation of low-altitude stratocumulus clouds that result from small-scale processes in sub-tropical marine boundary layers is widely considered the largest source of uncertainty that remains in contemporary GCMs’ prediction of the temperature response to a global increase in CO2. Improvements in the capacity of machine learning algorithms and the increasing availability of high- fidelity datasets from global satellite data and local Large Eddy Simulations (LES) have identified data-driven parameterisations as a high-potential option to break the deadlock. -
Hurricane Flooding
ATM 10 Severe and Unusual Weather Prof. Richard Grotjahn L 18/19 http://canvas.ucdavis.edu Lecture 18 topics: • Hurricanes – what is a hurricane – what conditions favor their formation? – what is the internal hurricane structure? – where do they occur? – why are they important? – when are those conditions met? – what are they called? – What are their life stages? – What does the ranking mean? – What causes the damage? Time lapse of the – (Reading) Some notorious storms 2005 Hurricane Season – How to stay safe? Note the water temperature • Video clips (colors) change behind hurricanes (black tracks) (Hurricane-2005_summer_clouds-SST.mpg) Reading: Notorious Storms • Atlantic hurricanes are referred to by name. – Why? • Notorious storms have their name ‘retired’ © AFP Notorious storms: progress and setbacks • August-September 1900 Galveston, Texas: 8,000 dead, the deadliest in U.S. history. • September 1906 Hong Kong: 10,000 dead. • September 1928 South Florida: 1,836 dead. • September 1959 Central Japan: 4,466 dead. • August 1969 Hurricane Camille, Southeast U.S.: 256 dead. • November 1970 Bangladesh: 300,000 dead. • April 1991 Bangladesh: 70,000 dead. • August 1992 Hurricane Andrew, Florida and Louisiana: 24 dead, $25 billion in damage. • October/November 1998 Hurricane Mitch, Honduras: ~20,000 dead. • August 2005 Hurricane Katrina, FL, AL, MS, LA: >1800 dead, >$133 billion in damage • May 2008 Tropical Cyclone Nargis, Burma (Myanmar): >146,000 dead. Some Notorious (Atlantic) Storms Tracks • Camille • Gilbert • Mitch • Andrew • Not shown: – 2004 season (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) – Katrina (Wilma & Rita) (2005) – Sandy (2012), Harvey (2017), Florence & Michael (2018) Hurricane Camille • 14-19 August 1969 • Category 5 at landfall – for 24 hours – peak winds 165 kts (190mph @ landfall) – winds >155kts for 18 hrs – min SLP 905 mb (26.73”) – 143 perished along gulf coast, – another 113 in Virginia Hurricane Andrew • 23-26 August 1992 • Category 5 at landfall • first Category 5 to hit US since Camille • affected S. -
Textremes Forms the Paths of NCM014
Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations Article Published Version Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) Open Access Yamada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-9944, Kodama, C., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Roberts, M. J., Mizuta, R., Noda, A. T., Nasuno, T., Nakano, M. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 8 (1). ISSN 2197-4284 doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98236/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher’s version if you intend to cite from the work. See Guidance on citing . Published version at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Publisher: Springer All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading’s research outputs online Yamada et al. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2021) 8:11 Progress in Earth and https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00397-1 Planetary Science RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Evaluation of the contribution of tropical cyclone seeds to changes in tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming in high-resolution multi-model ensemble simulations Yohei Yamada1* , Chihiro Kodama1, Masaki Satoh2, Masato Sugi3, Malcolm J. -
Climate Science and Climate Risk: a Primer
Climate Science and Climate Risk: A Primer By Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel Professor of Atmospheric Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology email: [email protected] website: http://eaps4.mit.edu/faculty/Emanuel/ Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel | Climate Science and Climate Risk: A Primer 1 Considerably more than 90% percent of climate scientists attribute the bulk of the increase in global mean temperature over the past three to four decades to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases that commenced with the Industrial Revolution.1 The great majority of these scientists hold that continued warming presents significant risks to humankind over the coming centuries. What scientific evidence led the scientific community to these conclusions? How robust is that evidence? To what extent should we trust uncertain projections of future climate change based on complicated global climate models? How do we deal with climate change as a problem of risk assessment and management? his essay summarizes the most important lines of not fit within the existing scientific framework. Scientists T evidence for anthropogenic climate change, confronts then try to repeat and improve on the observation to some of the stickier questions behind uncertainty in determine whether it really is an outlier. Next, they may pose climate projections, and concludes with a discussion of the one or more hypotheses to explain the observation, and if a particular risks entailed by climate change and how they are hypothesis succeeds in explaining not only that observation being quantified. but others as well, and especially if it successfully predicts The essay is structured as follows. First, a brief history of what has not yet been observed, the hypothesis may advance climate science reveals that the most important principles to the status of a theory. -
Assimilation of Ttrecretrieved Wind Data with WRF 3DVAR
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: ATMOSPHERES, VOL. 118, 10,361–10,375, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50815, 2013 Assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved wind data with WRF 3DVAR for the short-term forecasting of typhoon Meranti (2010) near landfall Xin Li,1 Jie Ming,1 Yuan Wang,1 Kun Zhao,1 and Ming Xue 2 Received 11 April 2013; revised 30 August 2013; accepted 4 September 2013; published 18 September 2013. [1] An extended Tracking Radar Echo by Correlation (TREC) technique, called T-TREC technique, has been developed recently to retrieve horizontal circulations within tropical cyclones (TCs) from single Doppler radar reflectivity (Z) and radial velocity (Vr, when available) data. This study explores, for the first time, the assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds for a landfalling typhoon, Meranti (2010), into a convection-resolving model, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The T-TREC winds or the original Vr data from a single coastal Doppler radar are assimilated at the single time using the WRF three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), at 8, 6, 4, and 2 h before the landfall of typhoon Meranti. In general, assimilating T-TREC winds results in better structure and intensity analysis of Meranti than directly assimilating Vr data. The subsequent forecasts for the track, intensity, structure and precipitation are also better, although the differences becomes smaller as the Vr data coverage improves when the typhoon gets closer to the radar. The ability of the T-TREC retrieval in capturing more accurate and complete vortex circulations in the inner-core region of TC is believed to be the primary reason for its superior performance over direct assimilation of Vr data; for the latter, the data coverage is much smaller when the TC is far away and the cross-beam wind component is difficult to analyze accurately with 3DVAR method. -
A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2017 A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B. (Thomas Brian) McKenzie III Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES A CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC USING AN ALTERNATIVE METRIC By THOMAS B. MCKENZIE III A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2017 Copyright © 2017 Thomas B. McKenzie III. All Rights Reserved. Thomas B. McKenzie III defended this thesis on March 23, 2017. The members of the supervisory committee were: Robert E. Hart Professor Directing Thesis Vasubandhu Misra Committee Member Jeffrey M. Chagnon Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii To Mom and Dad, for all that you’ve done for me. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I extend my sincere appreciation to Dr. Robert E. Hart for his mentorship and guidance as my graduate advisor, as well as for initially enlisting me as his graduate student. It was a true honor working under his supervision. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Vasubandhu Misra and Dr. Jeffrey L. Chagnon, for their collaboration and as representatives of the thesis process. Additionally, I thank the Civilian Institution Programs at the Air Force Institute of Technology for the opportunity to earn my Master of Science degree at Florida State University, and to the USAF’s 17th Operational Weather Squadron at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, HI for sponsoring my graduate program and providing helpful feedback on the research. -
IUGG03-Program.Pdf
The Science Council of Japan and sixteen Japanese scientific societies will host IUGG2003, the XXIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. Hosts Science Council of Japan The Geodetic Society of Japan Seismological Society of Japan The Volcanological Society of Japan Meteorological Society of Japan Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources The Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences The Japanese Society of Snow and Ice The Oceanographic Society of Japan The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences The Japanese Society of Limnology Japan Society of Civil Engineers Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology The Balneological Society of Japan Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering The Geochemical Society of Japan Special Support Hokkaido Prefecture City of Sapporo Co-Sponsor National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (JSS01 Hagiwara Symposium on Monitoring and Modeling of Earthquake and Volcanic Processes for Prediction) Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo (JSM01 Toward High Resolution Climate Models and Earth System Models) Support Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Japan Marine Science and Technology Center National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting Organization Japanese Forestry Society Japan Business -
Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated with the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014)
Originally published as: Lou, Y., Luo, X., Gu, S., Xiong, C., Song, Q., Chen, B., Xiao, Q., Chen, D., Zhang, Z., Zheng, G. (2019): Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated With the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014). - Journal of Geophysical Research, 124, 7, pp. 6237—6252. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026861 RESEARCH ARTICLE Two Typical Ionospheric Irregularities Associated With 10.1029/2019JA026861 the Tropical Cyclones Tembin (2012) and Hagibis (2014) Key Points: Yidong Lou1 , Xiaomin Luo1 , Shengfeng Gu1 , Chao Xiong2 , Qian Song3 , Biyan Chen4, • Different characteristics of EPB and 5 1 1 1 MSTID associated with tropical Qinqin Xiao , Dezhong Chen , Zheng Zhang , and Gang Zheng cyclones in China are analyzed in 1 2 detail GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, Potsdam, • Cautions should be taken when the Germany, 3Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, ROTI maps are used to identify the Beijing, China, 4School of Geosciences and Info‐Physics, Central South University, Changsha, China, 5School of ionospheric irregularities since they Municipal and Surveying Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang, China are sensitive to both plasma bubble and MSTID • Both EPB and MSTID show the geomagnetically conjugating feature Abstract Two remarkable ionospheric irregularities named equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) and in the East‐Asia region medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (MSTID) are verified by using multi‐instrumental observations, for example, the ground‐based GPS networks, ionosonde stations, and Swarm satellites, when the tropical cyclones Tembin and Hagibis approached Hong Kong on 26 August 2012 and 15 June 2014, Correspondence to: respectively. -
Global Climate Risk Index 2018
THINK TANK & RESEARCH BRIEFING PAPER GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2018 Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2016 and 1997 to 2016 David Eckstein, Vera Künzel and Laura Schäfer Global Climate Risk Index 2018 GERMANWATCH Brief Summary The Global Climate Risk Index 2018 analyses to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.). The most recent data available – for 2016 and from 1997 to 2016 – were taken into account. The countries affected most in 2016 were Haiti, Zimbabwe as well as Fiji. For the period from 1997 to 2016 Honduras, Haiti and Myanmar rank highest. This year’s 13th edition of the analysis reconfirms earlier results of the Climate Risk Index: less developed countries are generally more affected than industrialised countries. Regarding future climate change, the Climate Risk Index may serve as a red flag for already existing vulnerability that may further increase in regions where extreme events will become more frequent or more severe due to climate change. While some vulnerable developing countries are frequently hit by extreme events, for others such disasters are a rare occurrence. It remains to be seen how much progress the Fijian climate summit in Bonn will make to address these challenges: The COP23 aims to continue the development of the ‘rule-book’ needed for implementing the Paris Agreement, including the global adaptation goal and adaptation communication guidelines. A new 5-year-work plan of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage is to be adopted by the COP.