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Risk Influencing Factors in Maritime Accidents

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Risk Influencing Factors in Maritime Accidents Per Stornes Risk influencing factors in maritime accidents An exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Maritime Authority incident database Studio Apertura, NTNU Social Research REPORT TITLE Risk influencing factors in maritime accidents. An NTNU Social Reseach exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Studio Apertura Maritime Authority incident database. Mailing Address:: NTNU Dragvoll, N-7491 Trondheim Visiting address:: Loholt Allé 38B, AUTHOR Phone: (+47) 73 59 63 00 Fax: (+47) 73 59 62 24 Per Stornes E-mail: [email protected] FUNDER Web.: www.samforsk.no Norwegian Research Council, Norwegian Maritime Business reg. number:. NO 986 243 836 Directorate, Norwegian Coastal Authority REPORT NUMBER.. GRADATION FUNDER’S REF. Årstall:Løpenr Open National Ship Risk Model ISBN PROJECT NUMBER. NUMBER OF PAGES 2605 124 PRICE (excl. postage and handling) PROJECT MANAGER QUALITY ASSURED BY Petter Almklov Trond Kongsvik DATO APPROVED BY: May 18, 2015 Petter Almklov ABSTRACT This report is an exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Maritime Authority’s database, using data on groundings, collisions, allisions fires/explosions and some data on capsizings in Norwegian waters from 1981 through 2014. The analysis is part of the Norwegian Ship Risk Model project. The statistical analysis is divided into two parts. The first part is a descriptive analysis, which identifies common traits in accidents. Vessel types are broken down into 12 categories. Fires/explosions are most common on small fishing vessels in outer coastal waters in Northern regions, with a notable proportion happening in dock. Groundings are most common on cargo vessels in narrow coastal waters in Northern regions, and in the dark. Capsizings typically involve small fishing and cargo vessels in outer coastal waters, and feature strong winds and higher seas. Collisions are most frequent among fishing and break bulk vessels in outer coastal waters. Allisions are common among medium sized passenger vessels in the harbour area. The second part of the analysis uses multinomic regression to describe variation between accidents. Accident types vary modestly between vessel types, gross tonnages and length, but substantially between waters. Groundings are associated with narrow coastal waters, collisions with outer coastal, allisions with port areas, and fires/explosions are associated with vessels in dock. Weather has limited effect, although collisions are ten times more likely than other accidents under no visibility. High vessel damage severity was primarily associated with shorter vessels. We were not able to explain much variation in injuries and fatalities. The results indicate a strong need to connect accident data with normalized traffic data to identify risk influencing factors with more certainty. KEYWORDS Risk influencing factors, maritime accidents, relative probabilities, multinomic regression, fires/explosions, groundings, collisions, allisions, vessel types, waters, visibility, common accident scenario. ii 1 Preface This report was written in January-March 2015 on commission from Studio Apertura, NTNU Social Research, as part of the National Ship Risk Model project. The author would like to thank the entire staff at Studio Apertura for helping me out with all my needs in this period. In particular, I would like to thank Trond Kongsvik and Petter Almklov for valuable comments and support in the work on this report. In addition, I would like to thank Rolf Bye, Stein Haugen and Elisabeth Blix at Safetec Trondheim for their input in the research process. Special thanks goes to the Norwegian Maritime Authority, and their representative Vegar Berntsen in particular, for assistance in supplying data and information. Trondheim, May 18, 2015, Per Stornes 2 Contents 1 Preface .......................................................................................................................... iii 2 Contents ........................................................................................................................ iv 3 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... vi 4 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 4.1 The «National ship risk model» project .................................................................. 8 4.2 Goals of Work Package 3. ....................................................................................... 8 4.3 Layout of the report. ................................................................................................ 9 5 Theoretical perspectives .............................................................................................. 10 5.1 Risk models ........................................................................................................... 12 5.2 Research questions ................................................................................................ 13 6 The NMA incident database. ....................................................................................... 14 6.1 History of the database. ......................................................................................... 14 6.2 Validity of the data ................................................................................................ 15 6.3 Accident types. ...................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Other qualities of accidents ................................................................................... 17 6.5 Vessel groups in the database ............................................................................... 18 6.6 Vessel types in the database. ................................................................................. 19 6.7 Vessel categories in the present analysis. ............................................................. 20 6.8 Vessel properties ................................................................................................... 22 6.9 Geographical properties ........................................................................................ 24 6.10 Weather properties .............................................................................................. 26 6.11 Date and time properties ..................................................................................... 27 6.12 Certification properties ........................................................................................ 27 6.13 Vessel identity ..................................................................................................... 29 6.14 A note on missing data ........................................................................................ 30 7 Analysis Part 1: Common traits in accidents - descriptive statistics. ......................... 31 7.1 Vessel qualities ...................................................................................................... 31 7.2 Geographical qualities ........................................................................................... 34 7.3 Weather qualities. .................................................................................................. 35 7.4 Time qualities ........................................................................................................ 36 7.5 Other notable qualities .......................................................................................... 38 8 Analysis Part 1: Common traits in accidents ............................................................... 40 8.1 Common traits in fires and explosions .................................................................. 40 8.2 Common traits in groundings ................................................................................ 41 8.3 Common traits in capsizings ................................................................................. 42 8.4 Common traits in collisions .................................................................................. 43 8.5 Common traits in allisions .................................................................................... 43 8.6 Common traits in accidents: A summary and comparison. ................................... 44 8.7 Risk influencing factors based on common traits ................................................. 46 9 Analysis part 2: Logistic and multinomic regression methods .................................... 47 9.1 The logistic regression model. .............................................................................. 47 9.2 The multinomic regression model ......................................................................... 51 iv 10 Analysis part 2: Regression analyses of accidents. ................................................... 56 10.1 Preliminary analysis of vessel types and accidents. ............................................ 56 10.2 Multinomic analysis of vessels, geography and weather. ................................... 57 10.3 Integrated model of vessel, geography and weather. .......................................... 63 10.4 Predicted probabilities from the integrated model .............................................. 68 10.5 Conditional probabilities ..................................................................................... 70 10.6 Predicted probabilities of common traits ...........................................................
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