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Doing Business in China: Country Commercial Guide for US Companies Doing Business in China: Country Commercial Guide for U.S. Companies INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT, U.S. & FOREIGN COMMERCIAL SERVICE AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2013. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES. • Chapter 1: Doing Business In China • Chapter 2: Political and Economic Environment • Chapter 3: Selling U.S. Products and Services • Chapter 4: Leading Sectors for U.S. Export and Investment • Chapter 5: Trade Regulations, Customs and Standards • Chapter 6: Investment Climate • Chapter 7: Trade and Project Financing • Chapter 8: Business Travel • Chapter 9: Contacts, Market Research and Trade Events • Chapter 10: Guide to Our Services Return to table of contents Chapter 1: Doing Business in China • Market Overview • Market Challenges • Market Opportunities • Market Entry Strategy • Fact Sheet Market Overview Return to top The biggest news in China in 2012 was the leadership transition as Xi Jinping took over as President from Hu Jintao, and Li Keqiang took over as Premier from Wen Jiabao. What impact they will have on economic governance remains to be determined. The International Monetary Fund estimates that China's 2013 GDP growth will be 7.8%. The Chinese government’s new leadership has acknowledged that the country’s economic growth will slow going forward due to a number of internal and external factors, likely to the range of 7-7.5% in the short- to mid-term, but has not reacted with stimulus measures through the first half of 2013.= Despite slowing GDP growth, which in 2012 was at the lowest level in 13 years, employment has remained stable, but weak profitability in certain sectors and continued external headwinds affecting export-oriented manufacturing may be cause for concern going forward. Inflation was at an annualized level of 2.6% in 2012, and has remained low through the first half of 2013. China’s newly-installed economic policymakers have focused their rhetoric on achieving sustainable, high-quality growth versus fast growth, and transforming the country’s economic growth model to have a greater focus on consumption, service sector development, and innovation. The government continues to list controlling residential real estate prices as a priority, but year-on-year house prices rose 4.3% across China in April 2013, and total credit expanded by 65% year-on-year in the first four months of 2013, with credit-to-GDP exceeding 200% by mid-2013, according to some analysts. The unprecedented expansion of credit is the result of stimulus measures undertaken by the government in 2008-2009 and 2012 to cushion a slowing economy. China’s new government has vowed to refrain from stimulus, but observers are unclear how much of a slowdown the leadership can accept before intervening. Exports remain a vital part of China's economy, and the Euro-zone economy remains an important factor for the health of China’s economy. China’s economy has seen enormous benefits from fixed asset investment, particularly in response to the financial crisis of 2008, which reduced exports as a percent of GDP. This investment-led growth, however, is widely perceived as unsustainable and China’s leadership addressed this concern in its 12th Five-Year Plan (12th 5YP), which came out in 2011. The plan aims to increase consumption activity from approximately 35% of GDP in 2010 to 50% by 2015. The IMF estimates that total investment will remain above 47% of GDP in 2013, and household consumption remains suppressed by factors such as financial repression. The rebalancing of China’s economy should create opportunities for U.S. companies that provide consumer products and services, provided China provides market access and a level playing field for foreign firms. Environmental protection is also listed as high priority in the 12th FYP, but many challenges remain in this area. China is the United States’ second largest trading partner after Canada. Despite China’s gradually slowing GDP growth, U.S. exports of goods to China increased to $110.6 billion in 2012, up from $104 billion in 2011. The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China widened to $315 billion in 2012, up from 2011’s deficit of $295 billion. U.S. exports of services expanded to $29 billion in 2012, up from $26.7 billion in 2011, and the United States had a trade surplus in services of $17 billion with China in 2012. U.S. agricultural, fishery and forestry exports to China in 2012 reached a new high of $28.7 billion, up over 23% from 2011 making China the largest U.S. overseas market for agriculture, fish and forestry exports. Given China’s rising incomes and demand for raw materials and finished foodstuffs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that China’s imports will continue to grow well into the future. China’s rapid economic growth, especially in the urban areas, has led to a booming consumer market for high-end goods and services, including tourism and education. China will consume $27 billion worth of luxury goods by 2015, 20% of the world market. About 80% of people buying luxury items in China are 45 years old or younger, whereas that percentage is only half of that in the United States. By 2020, China’s middle class is expected to account for around 45% of the population, or 700 million people. Despite these remarkable changes, China is still a developing country with significant economic divisions between urban and rural areas. The number of migrant workers remains high. An estimated 160 million laborers worked outside of their home provinces in 2011, where they were legally precluded from access to the local social safety net, including education services for their children. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that China’s urban population is 639 million (more than double the entire U.S. population) in 2013 and 60% of all Chinese are expected to be living in urban areas by 2020. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in 2012 the per-capita income of urban residents was $3,962 and the per-capita income of rural residents stood at $1,276. The CIA World Fact Sheet estimates that China has 99 million rural individuals below the poverty line. Official estimates of income inequality put China in the ranks of the Dominican Republic and Congo (China’s official 2012 Gini Coefficient, which measures income inequality, was 0.47), but unofficial estimates suggest that inequality may be closer to levels seen in Haiti and South Africa. In summary, although GDP and trade continue to increase significantly, challenges remain as China attempts to reduce its high domestic savings rate and relatively low domestic demand, maintain job growth for the high number migrant workers and graduates entering the work force, and stem the environmental damage resulting from China’s rapid industrial and economic growth. Market Challenges Return to top In addition to large multinationals, many of which continue to earn impressive returns on their exports to and investments in China’s market, American small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are also active here. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Commercial Service (CS) counsels American companies that in order to succeed in China’s market, they must thoroughly investigate their specific market, take heed of product standards, and pre-qualify potential business partners. Stumbling blocks that foreign companies often run into while doing business in China can be grouped into the following broad categories. • China often lacks predictability in its business environment. China’s current legal and regulatory system can be opaque, inconsistent, and often arbitrary. Implementation of the law is inconsistent. Lack of effective protection of intellectual property rights is a particularly damaging issue for many American companies. Both those that already operate in China and those that have not yet entered the market have had their product IP stolen by Chinese companies. • China has a government that, in some sectors of the economy, could be called mercantilist due to the significance of exports in the growth model. China has made significant progress toward a market-oriented economy, but parts of its bureaucracy still seek to protect favored firms, especially state-owned enterprises, from imports, while encouraging exports. • China retains much of the apparatus of a planned economy, with five-year plans setting economic goals, strategies, and targets. The State and the Communist Party directly manage the only legal labor union. • The size and complexity of the market in China can stress a firm’s capabilities, resources and patience. Well-targeted and informed efforts and a network of contacts at various levels across a broad range of organizations are often linked closely with market success and ability to resolve problems. Market Opportunities Return to top • Opportunities exist for growth of imports from the United States in sectors such as Safety and Security, Automotive Components, Aviation, Coal Mining Equipment, Environment, Franchising, Machinery, Marine Industries, Medical Equipment, ICT Equipment and Software, Oil and Gas, Green Building, Nuclear, Rail and Urban Rail, Animal Feed, Fisheries Products, Tree Nuts, Soybeans (the largest single U.S. export to China), Hides and Skins, Wood Products, Packaged, Foods, Meat and Poultry, Wine and Beer, and Fresh Fruit and a range of services. • The wide range or promising sectors suggests that China will remain an important and viable market. With growing numbers of Chinese traveling abroad for education and leisure purposes, China’s contribution to U.S. educational institutions and the tourism industry is increasingly important as well. • China is a challenging market and requires a strong understanding of a firm’s capabilities and in-depth knowledge of the market. Before making a decision to enter the Chinese market, potential entrants should first consider their own resources, past exporting experience, and have a willingness to commit a significant amount of time exploring opportunities for their products and services in China.
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