INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SPACE SAFETY Space Safety Number 0 July 2011 Magazine Going to Space on an Homemade Rocket Nespoli Captures Historic ISS Photographs Landing Curiosity Space Safety July Magazine 2011 Index 3 Welcome to the First Issue of 10 Safety of Lithium Battery the Space Safety Magazine 4 Choosing Safety 7 NASA Launches Satellite Servicing Experiment 20 Nespoli Captures Historic ISS Photographs 12 Going to Space on an 24 In This Issue of the Space Homemade Rocket Safety Magazine 16 Double Indemnity 25 Give Your Contribution to the Space Safety Magazine 8 NASA Announces New Plans for the Orion Capsule 25 Advertising Placement 26 Press Clips 9 Human Rating the Delta IV Heavy 19 Landing Curiosity 28 Upcoming Events July Space Safety 2011 Magazine 0 INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION Space Safety Magazine FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF Editorial Board www.iaass.org SPACE SAFETY Tommaso Sgobba Postbus 127 Alex Soons 2200AC Noordwijk IAASS ISSF Philip Wallace The Netherlands International Association International Space Safety for the Advancement of Foundation Editor-in-Chief Space Safety www.issfoundation.org Andrea Gini www.iaass.org [email protected] Creative Director Kristhian Mason Cover pictures: An amazing picture of the ISS-Shuttle complex. - Credits: Paolo Nespoli, NASA/ESA Central Region of the Milky Way - Credit: NASA, ESA, SSC, CXC, and STScI 2 Space Safety July Magazine 2011 Welcome to the First Issue of the Space Safety Magazine Dear Reader, necessary course of corrective actions trial sector (e.g. nuclear power genera- is delayed. Safety risk in space mis- tion after Fukushima). An unsafe design elcome to the first issue of sions refers to the general public safety can kill. Any support to safety initiatives the Space Safety Magazine, (on ground, on air and at sea), safety of is therefore a positive contribution to Wwhich is the joint “voice” of launch range personnel, and safety of the well being, progress and expansion the IAASS (International Association for humans on-board. Space safety is also of the space industry as well. the Advancement of Space Safety) and generally defined in a wider sense as of the ISSF (International Space Safety encompassing the safeguard of valu- It is a symbolic although casual cir- Foundation). The Space Safety Maga- able facilities on ground (e.g. launch cumstance that the first number of this zine supersedes the IAASS Newsletter pads), of strategic and costly systems Space Safety Magazine coincides with that you were familiar with and enjoyed. on orbit (i.e. global utilities), payloads the retirement from service of the Space as well as the safeguard of the space Shuttle and the end of that program. We There is an important change of scope and Earth environment. truly believe that this is not the end of and target audience for the magazine. the Space Age, as someone has written The main objective of the IAASS News- The International Association for the recently, but the start of a new era in letter was to publish opinions, thoughts, Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS) which it is recognized that commercial studies, analyses and experiences is the premiere association of profes- space is the key player in “near space” of the IAASS members to maintain a sionals working in space safety and while the preparation of the next gov- continuity of information exchange be- related engineering and management ernment exploration missions requires tween IAASS conferences. The IAASS fields, but because of the very special- the prerequisite achievement of tech- Newsletter was written by members for ized field of interest the IAASS is and nological advancement and break- members. The Space Safety Magazine will remain a relatively small group of through that would make them feasible, is written instead by space safety spe- professionals yet a unique think-tank affordable, safe and finally useful be- cialists (members and non members with a great potential for shaping at- cause of their technological fall-out on of IAASS) and by professional scien- titude and culture of the wider space the society. We are not at the end of an tific journalists for the wider audience programs community. Because (nu- era but at the beginning of a new one. of those that have an interest, need or merically) small, the IAASS is unable The space race ended with the Moon simply curiosity to know the current de- to financially support all its initiatives landing. The international cooperation velopments in the field of space safety and needs, in particular the support of in space (not just bi-lateral symbols of and sustainability. The magazine will sponsors and donors for the promotion goodwill) truly started with the Interna- still include information about IAASS of independent space safety research tional Space Station which the Space and ISSF upcoming events and life, but and specialized academic education. Shuttle and the International Partners the relevant websites will truly be the Providing this financial support is the made possible. The International Space main source of such information. purpose of the International Space Station is the highest moment (physi- Safety Foundation. cally, technologically and morally) of Why then a joint “voice” for the cooperation between nations to date IAASS and for the ISSF? The Asso- The question is then, why should a in human history and hopefully just the ciation and the Foundation are two corporation or government organization beginning of larger cooperation. The essential pillars of the same project. sponsor independent research and ac- race is finished, now it is the time for One brings the knowledge, indepen- ademic education? There are multiple steady and safe progress! dence and dedication of its profes- reasons, but the top one is that safety is sional members, the other the financial often a strategic business growth driver. Welcome Space Safety Magazine, support of corporations and govern- Safety advancement remains one of the welcome to you! ment organization, which recognize key prerequisite for the success and the added value of independent safe- expansion of many businesses. Some- ty research and academic education times continuous safe performance is to their strategic objectives. even critical for company, program or sector survival. The faulty design of a The space industry is expanding single product can kill its manufactur- worldwide and with it the safety risk be- er’s business (as it happened several cause of poor attention, lack of technical times in aviation). An unsafe design may progress in the field, cumulative effects, kill (sooner or later) a unique design and and weak or non-existent international operational concept (e.g. Shuttle, or the rules. Eventually the prospect for in- supersonic Concorde). A single major Tommaso Sgobba Frederick D. Gregory dustry growth will be badly hurt if the disaster can endanger an entire indus- IAASS President ISSF Board Chairman 3 Space Safety July Magazine 2011 Choosing Safety A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Complex, High-Consequence Systems ardous facilities, the book focuses on similar. In fact, both revolve around methods for making logical decisions how to identify and quantify uncertain- about complex engineered systems ties and they use similar mathematical and products in which safety is a key methods. Therefore I wrote the book factor in design—and where failure can around how to merge these two fields cause great harm, injury, or death. In to demonstrate how one may use PRA a nutshell, it shows when, where, and to make decisions that involve safety. how probabilistic risk assessment fits SSM: Can you give a brief defini- into decision analysis. This book pro- tion of probabilistic risk assessment vides the needed guidance and formal and decision analysis? procedures to include safety in project MF: Both PRA and decision analysis decisions. treat risk: I don’t think there is a uni- versal definition. One I find useful is: risk is Risk is a representation a representation of un- “ certainty associated of uncertainty associated with the probability and consequences of with the probability and events or collections of events. Both PRA consequences of events and decision analysis allow a decision mak- or collections of events„ er to understand how Michael V. Frank - RFF Press – 2008 uncertainties influence Choosing Safety is for managers, the collection of factors that are impor- project leaders, engineers, and scien- tant to the probability and consequenc- From the tists who create, design, develop, op- es associated with an outcome. In erate or maintain high consequence, PRA, one constructs a model to obtain Back Cover complex systems and products. The the probability (or frequency) of event book is also for students and anyone sequences (sometimes called scenari- he technological age has seen else interested in a broad perspective os) that lead to an undesired outcome catastrophic and preventable about the union of decision analysis (such as mission failure, launch vehicle Tfailures from buildings and and probabilistic risk assessment. explosion, release radionuclides in a bridges to space and launch vehicles, nuclear reactor), and also the probabil- from chemical factories to nuclear ity distribution over the severity of the power plants, from ships to airplanes, Interview with undesired outcome, such as a cumula- and from trains to automobiles. Often tive distribution function over the num- the root cause can be traced to deci- The Author ber of injuries. In decision analysis, one sions that did not appropriately con- constructs a model in order to choose sider safety as a factor in design and pace Safety Magazine: Which is among alternative courses of action. engineering. The ideas, methods, and Sthe primary thesis of your book? The book shows how one uses PRA case studies of this book are at the Michael V. Frank: Probabilistic risk within a decision model that includes nexus of probabilistic risk assessment assessment (PRA) is used to help safety as a decision attribute, in order and decision analysis.