Moscow Defense Brief Your Professional Guide Inside # 1, 2011

Russian Army’s New Look CONTENTS

Defense Industries #1 (23), 2011 New Management at the United Aircraft Corporation 2 PUBLISHER Centre for Analysis of Arms Trade Strategies and Russian Arms Trade in 2010 4 Technologies CAST Director & Publisher Procurement Ruslan Pukhov Editor-in-Chief Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 12 Mikhail Barabanov Advisory Editors Konstantin Makienko Space Alexey Pokolyavin Russian Space Industry in 2010 17 Researchers Ruslan Aliev Polina Temerina Armed Forces Dmitry Vasiliev Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service 20 Editorial Office 3 Tverskaya-Yamskaya, 24, office 5, Demographics vs the Russian Army 25 Moscow, Russia 125047 phone: +7 499 251 9069 fax: +7 495 775 0418 Our Authors 28 http://www.mdb.cast.ru/

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Translated by: Ivan Khokhotva

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Cover Photo: Soldiers of the 5th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade on a rest break during an exercise Photo by: Vadim Savitsky © Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2011 Printed in Russia

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 1 Defense Industries

New Management at the United Aircraft Corporation Konstantin Makienko

ew management has arrived at the United Aircraft Sukhoi company. The Irkut alliance is centered on the Irkut NCorporation (OAK) after former president Aleksey corporation set up in 2001; its main asset is the Irkutsk Fedorov resigned on February 1, 2011. The company’s Board aircraft plant. In 2003 Irkut acquired the Yakovlev design of Directors has accepted his resignation and on February bureau and took control of the Beriyev bureau, the designer 25 appointed Mikhail Pogosyan, the CEO of Sukhoi and MiG of amphibious aircraft and platforms for airborne radars. In companies, to replace him. 2005 the group also took control of the MiG corporation after Aleksey Fedorov, the Irkut corporation’s president and largest shareholder, was appointed the director-general of MiG. The The reasons group’s expansion culminated in Fedorov’s appointment as president of the United Aircraft Corporation. With their The main reason for Fedorov’s departure is the poor state of political and economic clout at its peak, the group’s captains affairs with the commercial and transport aircraft projects. even began to think of the acquisition of their main rival The development of the new Il-112 military transport has been Sukhoi. That would have meant unqualified victory for Irkut painfully slow, and the MoD seems less then enthusiastic about and spelt the end of any competition between the Russian the results so far. The Russian-Indian multi-role transport aircraft aircraft makers. Apart from its streak of acquisitions, the project, the MTA, has been making very little progress, and a lot group was the first Russian defense contractor to conduct an of uncertainty remains about plans to resume production of the IPO in 2004. In 2006, a 10 per cent stake in Irkut was bought An-124 heavy transport. Missed deadlines and spiraling costs by Europe’s EADS. of the Il-476 project are yet another failure laid at the feet of the As it happens, crisis struck just as Irkut was at the previous OAK management. In the commercial aviation segment, peak of its power in 2006. First, bitter rivalry broke out production of the An-148 regional jet is facing great difficulties. between Fedorov’s two heirs apparent, Sergey Tsivilev, who Even more worryingly, the medium-haul Tu-204SM project is oversaw the Irkut IPO, and Valeriy Bezverkhiy, who was in on the verge of collapse; the aircraft has failed to secure enough charge of the relationship with EADS. Even worse, following orders to make its production economical. Fedorov’s appointment as OAK president and his succession The latest failing that actually triggered Fedorov’s as MiG director-general by Tsivilev, the Russian prosecutor- resignation was the botched interior finish and entertainment general’s office developed an interest in Tsivilev’s affairs. He system in the new presidential Tu-204PU jet, as well as was investigated on several criminal charges. By 2009 both Jordan’s complaints about delays with the delivery of the Tsivilev and Bezverkhiy had left the industry. Il‑76MF military transports under a 2007 contract. Finally, the reputation of Irkut and its president Aleksey The appointment of Mikhail Pogosyan to replace Fedorov sustained a serious blow from the Algerian fiasco. Fedorov means: In 2006 Algeria signed a contract for 34 MiG-29 fighters. But •• a sharp rebalancing between the two Russian aerospace after 15 fighters had been delivered, the Algerian Air Force arch-rivals, the Sukhoi company and the Irkut alliance; put the contract on hold and then returned all 15 MiG-29’s to •• the presidential administration’s encroachment upon Russia, citing technical problems with the aircraft. the traditional turf of the Cabinet; While the Irkut alliance was lurching from one crisis •• strengthening of the positions of the US makers of to the next, Sukhoi was steadily building up its political commercial jets on the Russian market. muscle and reputation. In 2008 two of the company’s new aircraft took to the air: the Su-35 fighter and the SSJ-100 commercial regional jet. In 2010 came the maiden flight Competition between the Irkut group and of the T-50 fifth-generation fighter. In 2011 the second Sukhoi T-50 prototype entered the flight tests program. All thee projects (S-35, SSJ and T-50) are making rapid progress, By the late 1990s two rival groups had coalesced in the in stark contrast to the languid pace of Russia’s other Russian aerospace industry: the Irkut alliance and the aerospace endeavors. 2 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief New Management at the United Aircraft Corporation Defense Industries

In 2008 Sukhoi CEO Mikhail Pogosyan was put at part of that relationship, EADS had acquired a stake in Irkut the helm of MiG while retaining his previous position, corporation and pursued a project to launch production of essentially becoming the de-facto captain of the entire Airbus components at the Irkutsk aircraft plant. Another Russian combat aviation sector. In 2009 his de facto status joint project was the conversion of Airbus planes into cargo was made official when Pogosyan was appointed head of the versions, involving Russian engineers and, quite possibly, Combat Aircraft division at the United Aircraft Corporation. Russian production facilities as well. As part of the same The appointment has spelt the end of the 10-year rivalry trend, Russia’s Vneshekonombank has accumulated a 5 per between Sukhoi and Irkut, and signaled a decisive victory cent stake in EADS. Russia has also discussed participation in for Sukhoi. the Airbus 350XWB and new medium-haul aircraft programs to succeed the ageing A-320 family. Sukhoi, meanwhile, has always preferred to work with Interpretation and consequences Boeing. First it hoped to persuade Boeing to a joint supersonic business jet project, then it wanted to secure access to the US Apart from the sound and possibly final victory for Sukhoi market for its own regional SSJ-100 aircraft. Now Russia’s over its Irkut rivals, the appointment of Pogosyan can also cooperation with EADS, which has been stagnating in the be interpreted as a significant strengthening of Boeing’s past two or three years, risks being pushed to the sidelines positions on the Russian market and further emancipation altogether. In what seems a clear indication of things to come, of President Medvedev, no longer a mere shadow of Vladimir almost simultaneously with Pogosyan’s appointment Russia’s Putin. flag carrier Aeroflot placed an order for eight Boeing 777 Up until recently, the aerospace industry was informally jets, although previously the company’s product strategy regarded as Putin’s turf. It was Putin who had made the preferred the European A-330 liners in the long-haul segment. decision to set up the OAK corporation and appoint Aleksey New contracts for American aircraft also sit well with the US- Fedorov its president. What is more, word has it that Putin Russian policy of Reset in bilateral relations, which has been had given Fedorov a firm promise that he would remain spearheaded by President Medvedev, whereas Prime Minister OAK president until his contract expires in November 2011. Putin has taken a more conservative stance. With the abrupt sacking of Fedorov and the appointment As for the OAK product strategy, the following of Pogosyan to replace him, the delicate balance between assumptions can be made: the two Russian aerospace rivals which Putin had been •• Prospects for the An-148 project are looking very bleak carefully maintaining has been unceremoniously wrecked. in Russia, especially after one of these aircraft crashed President Medvedev, meanwhile, appears to have broken on March 5 near Belgorod; the convention and barged into the turf of his partner in •• The MS-21 future liner project is facing growing risks the tandem. It seems more likely, however, that this is not a and may be revised to ensure greater compatibility with case of direct competition between the president and prime the SSJ platform; minister, but rather a tussle between anti-Putin elements in •• Russia will now pursue a more hard-nosed commercial the presidential administration and people in Putin’s Cabinet. approach to all its civilian, special-purpose and military The new management at OAK also means a more transport aircraft projects, including the Tu-204SM, the favorable climate for Boeing on the Russian market. The Irkut resumption of the AN-124 production, and the Be-200 group has always pursued closer partnership with EADS. As amphibious aircraft.

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 3 New Management at the United Aircraft Corporation Arms Trade

Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Dmitry Vasiliev

A surge after stagnation signed. The situation is unlikely to change in 2011. Meanwhile, China’s share in Russian arms exports continued Russian arms exports reached 10bn dollars in 2010, up 1.5bn to shrink for the fourth year running. on the previous year (Fig. 1a). Adjusted for the dollar inflation 2. Two new countries have been added to the list of of 1.64 per cent1, the real-terms increase was 1.36bn dollars, large importers of Russian weapons: Libya and Uganda. or 15.7 per cent. After almost two years of flat growth, the With Libya, a package of contracts was signed worth 1.3bn figure looks very impressive. euros, mainly for the upgrade of armor and the delivery of It is far from clear though that this excellent result small firearms. Uganda bought eight Su-30MK2 fighters reflects a real growth in the Russian defense industry’s output worth 350m dollars. Given the growing tensions in Southern rather than several large deliveries coinciding to produce a Sudan, new Ugandan arms contracts can be expected any statistical anomaly. To illustrate, the 2010 figures were buoyed time now. Meanwhile, the political crisis in Libya, which has by the almost simultaneous delivery of several ships, which led to the imposition of the UN arms embargo on Tripoli, took years to build, as well as a large batch of the Bastion means that Russia’s arms contracts with that country have coastal defense missile systems. It is therefore quite likely essentially become null and void. that last year’s surge in arms exports will have been just a 3. Deliveries of naval equipment rose to a record temporary blip. level since 2006, when Project 636 (Kilo class) diesel- Nevertheless, the Russian defense contracts portfolio electric submarines and Project 956EM destroyers has been growing steadily for the second year running were supplied to China. The biggest 2010 deliveries (Fig. 1b). In 2010 it went up by 5bn dollars to 45bn, of which include two Project 636M diesel-electric subs to Rosoboronexport, the authorized arms exports intermediary, Algeria, and several Bastion anti-ship missile systems accounts for 38.5bn. Simple calculations indicate that 15bn to Syria and Vietnam. dollars worth of new arms contracts were signed last year. 4. The Russian Defense Ministry carried on with the novel practice of buying weapons abroad. The Russian Navy contract for an amphibious assault ships, which had Key developments in 2010 been put up for an international tender, was predictably awarded to France with its Mistral class ship. Meanwhile, 1. Last year India became the biggest Russian defense the Italian-made Iveco LMV light armored vehicle entered customer in terms of deliveries made as well as contracts service with the Russian Army.

Figure 1. Russian arms exports in 2006-2010

Delivery Contracts Total, mln USD Total portfolio as of the year end, bn USD Rosoboronexpoet, mln USD 10000 Signed during the year, bn USD 45 8350 8500 8600 40 7550 7436 33 6460 6725 32 6200 28 5300

14.0 15.5* 15.0* 11.5* 9.9*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 * – CAST estimate. Source: Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation, Rosoboronexport, CAST estimates. 4 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Identified deliveries heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser). The MiG corporation had previously announced plans to deliver the last 10 aircraft Based on open-source information we have identified 6.64bn worth an estimated 460bn dollars. dollars worth of deliveries (see Table 1 at the bottom), or about Deliveries were also completed in 2010 on another two 66 per cent of the total 10bn figure. Deliveries of spare parts, long-term contracts for Russian aircraft. The first, signed in instruments and components accounted for an estimated 2001, was for the modernization of five Indian Il-38 ASW 1bn dollars on top of the 6.64bn, bringing the overall aircraft to Il-38SD specification. The last upgraded aircraft transparency index to almost 0.8 (76 per cent). In any event, was delivered in 2010. The second contract was signed in this account should not be considered entirely representative. 2003 for refitting three Indian A-50IE airborne early warning and command aircraft so that they could then be retrofitted Breakdown by type of equipment with Israeli-made Phalcon radar systems. In 2010 Russia’s TANTK Beriyev company handed over the third and final Aviation equipment has retained its traditional place at the aircraft to Israel, where it will be fitted with the new radar for top of the ranking, accounting for 44 per cent of identified a 2011 delivery to the Indian Air Force. deliveries (Fig 2a). Equipment for ground troops came The main recipients of Russian helicopters in 2010 (in second with 24 per cent, followed by naval equipment (20 dollar terms) appear to have been Iraq, Afghanistan and per cent) and air defense systems (12 per cent). China. The United States acted as an intermediary on the Iraqi Aviation equipment. We estimate the value of aviation and Afghan contracts. Iraq received eight Mi-171E transports equipment deliveries on export contracts made in 2010 at worth 156m dollars, and Afghanistan another batch of 10 3.1bn dollars, down from 3.45bn in 2009.2 Traditionally, Mi-17-V5 transports worth 110m. No precise information deliveries of Su-27/30 fighters account for the bulk of that is available on the Chinese contract. It appears that the 2010 figure. An estimated 35 units were delivered in 2010, worth deliveries included three Ka-28 ASW helicopters and three about 1.45bn dollars, including 30 Su-MKI aircraft to India Ka-31 AEW helicopters, worth an estimated 120m dollars (20 finished aircraft and 10 assembly kits), two Su-30MK2 for all six. to Vietnam and three Su-27SKM to Indonesia. It appears Several Mi-24/35 attack helicopters were delivered on that the Su-30MKI deliveries to India were part of the 2007 export contracts in 2010, including three Mi-35M to Brazil, four contract for 20 finished aircraft and another 20 assembly kits. Mi-35P to Indonesia, two Mi-35P to Peru and four Mi-24P to Meanwhile, no deliveries were made at all in 2010 on the well- Burma (these last four came from the Russian army surplus). publicized mega-contract for 140 Su-30MKI assembly kits. China has been the main destination of finished aircraft There has been very little information about any engines for the fourth year running. Some 43 turbofan deliveries of the MiG aircraft. We can only assume that 2010 engines of the RD-93 type for the Chinese FC-1 fighters saw the completion of the first batch of deliveries on an Indian were delivered in 2010, plus another 36 units of the D-30KP2 contract for MiG-29K carrier-based fighters for the future turbofan engine for the H-6K bombers, worth 300m dollars Vikramaditya aircraft carrier (the former Admiral Gorshkov for the lot.

Figure 2. Breakdown of identified deliveries on Russian arms contracts in 2010*

a) By type of equipment b) By country Ground Algeria – 12% Syria – 7% 25% China – 6% Naval 21% Vietnam – 6%

Venezuela – 6% UAE – 5% Air Defense Turkmenistan – 4% Aerospace 7% India – 41% 47% Other – 13%

* – the share of each category was calculated based on the total value of identified deliveries of 6.44bn dollars. Transfers of spare parts, instruments and components were not taken into account because no details about them are available. Source: CAST estimates based on media reports. # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 5 Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Weapons for ground troops. Identified transfers of completed in 2012. Syria also appears to have received the weapons and equipment for ground troops reached 1.66bn last six Pantsir-S1 units (worth 100m dollars) under a 2006 dollars in 2010, up from 1.18bn the year before. For the contract for 36 units. fourth year running the T-90S main battle tanks made up There is very little clarity regarding any deliveries on the bulk of these transfers. The sole large recipient in 2010 other large contracts. These include the Azeri contract for two was India, which took delivery of the last 20 finished T-90S new batteries of the S-300PMU2 Favorit (SA-21) SAM system, tanks and about 160 kits to be assembled in Avadi, worth an the Kazakh contract for S-300PS (SA-10B) systems from the estimated 640m dollars. The delivery of the last 63 kits under Russian army stock, the Syrian contract for eight batteries the contract is expected by May 2011. of the Buk-M2E (SA-17) SAM systems and the Venezuelan In all likelihood, India also received the last 14 Smerch contract for a large batch of the Igla-S (SA-24) MANPAD MLR systems under a 2007 contract for 18 such systems. systems and Pechora-2M (SA-3B Mod) SAM systems. Other large transfers include the delivery of 35 upgraded Spare parts, instruments and components. The 2010 T-72M1M tanks to Venezuela; another 57 are to follow. deliveries in this category are worth an estimated 1bn dollars. Naval equipment. Identified transfers of naval Very few details are available, but it seems that the Sukhoi equipment surged to 1.42bn dollars in 2010 from 537m the aircraft maker remains the leading exporter with about 250m previous year. Algeria once again became the largest known dollars worth of shipments in 2010. recipient.3 The country’s Navy took delivery of two Project 636M (Kilo class) diesel-electric submarines under a 600m Regional breakdown dollar contract signed in 2006. The Severnaya shipyards in St Petersburg delivered a Project 1234E (Nanuchka II class) India was the single largest buyer of Russian weapons in light missile corvette and a Project 1159T (Koni class) light 2010, accounting for 41 per cent of identified deliveries. It frigate under a 100m dollar Algerian Navy upgrade contract. was also the biggest importer of Russian combat aircraft Apart from the ships, naval exports were buoyed by the (Su-30MKI and MiG-29K) and weapons for ground forces transfers of the Bastion-P (SSC-5) coastal mobile anti-ship (T-90 tanks and Smerch MLRS; see Fig 2b). Algeria came missile systems. Two batteries were delivered to Syria in 2010 second with 12 per cent after taking delivery of two Project and another one to Vietnam. The Vietnamese Navy also took 636M submarines. The Syria was third 7 per cent after China, delivery of the first of the two Project 11661E (Gepard-3.9 Vietnam and Venezuela tied for the fourth place, with 6 per class) light frigates. cent each. The UAE is the fifth with 5 per cent after receiving Air defense systems. Identified deliveries of air defense Pantsyr-S1 air-defence systems. Turkmenistan came six with systems on export contracts reached 450m dollars in 2010 4 per cent after receiving Molniya class corvette and a large (460m dollars in 2009). The main event of the year was the batch of Kamaz trucks. The bottom line is that Russian arms deliveries of about 24 Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) gun-missile air exports have remained strongly diversified in terms of their defense systems to UAE (350m dollars). The contract will be destinations for the last several years.

Figure 3. Breakdown of identified Russian arms contracts in 2010* a) By type of equipment b) By country

ASM BrahMos Algeria – 12% 23% Libya – 12%

Vietnam – 12%

Uganda – 4% Ground Aerospace 12% Other – 4% 65% India – 56%

* – percentage figures calculated based on the total of 8.59bn dollars. That excludes the contracts for spare parts, instruments and components worth about 1bn dollars. Source: CAST estimates based on open-source information. 6 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Finally, it is worth noting that due to the growing Helicopter contracts accounted for a rather small international tensions over Iran, all Russian arms contracts proportion of the total in 2010. The largest was the Polish with that country appear to have been suspended. Apart from order for five Mi-17 transports worth 106m dollars and the the well-known Iranian contract for the S-300PMU1 SAM Peruvian contract for six Mi-171Sh transports plus two systems, this includes the 2005 contracts for the repair of two Mi‑35P attack helicopters, worth 89m dollars. Iranian Project 877EKM submarines and for the construction Weapons for ground troops. The 2010 contracts in this and launch of the Zohreh communication satellite. category are worth an estimated 1.05bn dollars. The biggest of them was the licensing deal with Libya for the production of the AK-103 assault rifles (worth about 600m dollars) and Identified new contracts the Libyan contract for the modernization of 145 T-72 main battle tanks (300m dollars). Some 500,000 AK-103 assault The aggregate figures reported in the media add up to 8.59bn rifles were expected to be manufactured under the licensing dollars worth of arms contracts signed in 2010 (see Table 2 at agreement. But since Libya is under a UN arms embargo as the bottom), up from 6.89bn in 2009. The estimated value of of March 2011, all these contracts are now in limbo. new contacts for spare parts, instruments and components is another billion dollars on top of that. The proportion of the Regional breakdown 2010 contracts we have managed to identify is about 65 per cent (up from 45 per cent in 2008 and 2009). India accounts for 56 per cent of the identified 2010 contracts, thanks to the large Indian orders for Russian aircraft and for Breakdown by type of equipment the BrahMos missiles (Fig 3b). Algeria and Vietnam (which signed large Su-30 contracts) and Libya tie for the second The biggest contract signed in 2010 was the Indian order for a place with 12 per cent each. Uganda has become an important large batch of BrahMos anti-ship missiles, which are made by Russian defense customer after placing an order for a batch the Brahmos Aerospace joint venture owned 50-50 by Russia of Su-30 aircraft and other weapons systems. It ranks a very and India. The value of the contract is 4bn dollars, of which distant third with 4 per cent. Russia will get 2bn. That single deal accounts for 23 per cent of all the identified 2010 contracts (Fig. 3a). Contracts for aviation equipment still make up the bulk Outlook for 2011 of the overall figure (65 per cent). There has been next to no information in the media on any naval contracts, so they are The existing portfolio of contracts will be enough to keep not represented in the Fig 3a diagram. Air defense contracts Russian arms exports at the current level for another are not included, either, and for the same reason. Weapons for four years or more. About 50 Su-27/30 fighter jets will be ground forces accounted for 12 per cent of the overall figure. delivered to foreign customers in 2011. They will go to Aviation equipment. We estimate the value of the India (30 Su‑30MKI jets, including assembly kits), Vietnam contracts for Russian aviation equipment signed in 2010 at (8‑10 Su‑30MK2), Algeria (8-10 Su-30MKI(A)) and Uganda 5.54bn dollars. More than half of that figure (3.15bn) was (3-4 Su-30MK2). generated by the contracts for new Su-30 fighters and their In 2011 Russia is therefore set to beat the 2007 record of upgrades. That includes the 1bn dollar Algerian contract for 49 Su-27/30 fighters delivered to foreign customers. another 16 Su-30MKI(A) fighters; the 1bn dollar Vietnamese In addition, the Indian Air Force will receive the first contract for 12 Su-30MK2 fighters and for weaponry to upgraded MiG-29SMT fighters. Deliveries are also set to be fitted onto the 8 fighters ordered back in 2009 without commence on a 2009 contract for 80 Mi-17V-5 helicopters, weapons; and the 350m dollar Ugandan contract for eight and the increased deliveries of BrahMos missiles. As a result, Su-30MK2 jets. In addition, India has placed an 800m dollar New Delhi will remain Russia’s biggest defense customer in order for the upgrade of 40 Su-30MKI fighters. 2011. The biggest single aviation contract in 2010 was the Indian The main event in the naval segment will be the handover order for an additional 29 Mig-29K fighters for the Vikramaditya of a Project 971I Nerpa (Akula class) nuclear-powered attack aircraft carrier. This 1.5bn dollar deal was the result of India submarine to India under a lease contract. The delivery was choosing to exercise its option for additional aircraft to the 2004 initially set for 2010 but was later postponed until 2011. India contract for the first 16 jets. Two other large contracts were signed will also receive the first of the three Project 11356M (Talwar with India: one for the front-end engineering design of the Indian class Batch 2) frigates. version of the FGFA fifth-generation fighter (worth 295m dollars) Deliveries of air defense systems are very difficult and another for the development of the MTA military transport to forecast. The large contracts still pending include the aircraft (600m dollars). Algerian order for four batteries of the S-300PMU2 Favorit # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 7 Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

and 38 Pantsir-S1 systems the UAE contract for 50 Pantsir-S1 Navy contract for amphibious assault ships. As expected, the systems, the Syrian contract for eight Buk-M2E batteries, contract was awarded to the consortium of France’s DCNS the Venezuelan contract for one or two batteries of the and Russia’s United Shipbuilding Corporation (OSK), which S-300VM (SA-12) and the Azeri contract for two batteries offered the Mistral class ship. The first ship in the series of the S-300PMU2. The delivery deadlines for most of these will cost 700m euros, the second 650m. Both will be built in contracts are unknown. France. The contract includes an option for another two ships In the weapons for ground troops category, the year 2011 to be built in Russia. The option is expected to be converted will see the completion of deliveries on an Indian contract into a firm contract by the end of April 2011. for 124 T-90S tanks and 223 assembly kits (more precisely, Also in 2010 the Italian Iveco LMV light armored Russia will deliver the remaining 63 kits). Deliveries will vehicles entered service with the Russian armed forces. The continue on the Venezuelan contract for T-72M1M tanks. The initial contract was for 10 such vehicles. Later on, assembly launch of the new Venezuelan plant for the assembly under under license will be launched at one of the existing Russian license of the AK-103 assault rifles is scheduled for May 2011. plants (most likely KAMAZ), with the minimum annual Most of the large new deals expected in 2011 will be output of 500 units. signed with India. That includes the contracts for 42 Su- Israel’s IAI completed deliveries on a 53m dollar 30MKI fighters and 59 Mi-17-1V helicopters. There is also Russian army contract for 12 UAVs of several models, a good chance of a new licensing deal to be signed for the including the compact Bird-Eye 400, the tactical I-View MK construction in India of Project 22350 frigates. India is 150 and the medium-class Searcher Mk II. IAI has also signed therefore set to remain Russia’s largest defense customer in an agreement with Russia’s Oboronprom defense holding terms of new contracts signed in 2011 as well as deliveries company for assembly under license of Israeli UAVs in Russia. made under the existing contracts. The current choice of the site, which may yet change, is the Kazan helicopter plant, part of the Oboronprom group. Finally, Rosoboronexport and France’s Thales have Imports agreed to set up a joint venture to assemble and service Catherine-FC thermal imagers at the Vologda optics and The main event of 2010 in the arms imports category was the mechanics plant. The imagers will be used in T-90A tanks announcement in December of the winner of the Russian and BMP-3 armored infantry vehicles.

Table 1. Major Identified Deliveries of Russian Arms in 2010* Recipient Weapon designation Units Year of Year(s) of Delivered in 2010 Delivered Notes ordered contract deliveries total

million Units USD Asia China D-30KP2 turbofan 55 2009 2009-2011 144 36 44 Contract value – USD 220m. engines For Chinese H-6K heavy bombers RD-93 turbofan 100 2005 2005-2010 151 43 Completed Contract value – USD 350m. engines The engines are to be fitted on FC-1 fighter jets destined for exports. Some of the jets will be made in Pakistan by a Pakistani-Chinese joint venture India Su-30MKI fighters / 20 / 20 2007 2008- 1200 10 / Total 36 Contract value – USD 1.6bn Su-30MKI fighter 2011** 20** kits MiG-29K/KUB 12 / 4 2004 2008-2010 458 10** Completed Contract value – USD 732m. carrier-based For the Vikramaditya (ex fighters Admiral Gorshkov) aircraft carrier 8 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Recipient Weapon designation Units Year of Year(s) of Delivered in 2010 Delivered Notes ordered contract deliveries total

million Units USD India T-90S MBTs / T-90S 124 / 2007 2008-2011 642 20 / 124 / 160 Contract value – USD 1.24bn MBT kits 223 160** Smerch MLRS 18 2007 2009-2010 233 14** Completed Contract value – USD 300m. systems Exercising option to a 2005 contract. Vietnam Su-30MK2 fighters 8 2009 2010-2011 80 2 2 Contract value – USD 320m. The aircraft are being delivered without weapons or simulator equipment Gepard 3.9 (Project 2 2006 2010-2011 175 1** 1 Contract value – USD 350m 11661E) class corvettes Bastion-P mobile 1 2006 2010 150 1 Completed Contract value – USD 150m coastal anti-ship battery missile system Indonesia Su-27SKM / 3 / 3 2007 2008-2010 168 3 / 0 Completed Contract value – USD 335m Su-30MK2 fighters Afghanistan Mi-17-V5 10 n/a 2010 110 10 Completed The contract was signed and helicopters deliveries were made with the United States acting as intermediary Turkmenistan Tarantul III class 1 2008 2010 100 1 Completed Contract value – USD 100m (Project 12421) missile light corvette Kamaz trucks 1052 2009 2010** 100 1052** Completed Contract value – USD 100m Middle East Algeria Kilo class (Project 2 2006 2010 600 2 Completed Contract value – USD 600m 636M) submarines Koni class 2 / 2 2007 2010- 100 1 / 1** 1 / 1 Contract value – USD 200m (Project 1159T) 2011** light frigates and Nanuchka II class (Project 1234E) missile light corvettes upgrade program Syria Pantzir-S1 gun- 36 2006 2008-2010 100 6** Completed Contract value – USD 600m missile air defense systems Bastion-P mobile 2 batte- 2007 2010 250 2 Completed Contract value – USD 250m coastal anti-ship ries missile system T-72 MBTs upgrade 1000 2006 2007-2011 100 200 800 Contract value – USD 500m program

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 9 Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Recipient Weapon designation Units Year of Year(s) of Delivered in 2010 Delivered Notes ordered contract deliveries total

million Units USD Iraq Mi-171E 8 2009 2010 156 8 Completed Contract value – USD 156m. helicopters The contract was signed and deliveries were made with the United States acting as intermediary UAE Pantzir-S1 gun- 50 2000 2009-2010 352 24** 30 Contract value – USD 800m missile air defense systems Latin America Venezuela Construction of - 2007 2007- 100 - Completed Contract value – USD 400m an MRO center for 2010** Russian helicopters T-72M1M MBTs 92 2009 2010-? 152 35 35 Contract value – USD 400m. From Russian army surplus. Repaired and upgraded at UVZ Construction of a - 2006 2008-2011 143 - - Contract value – USD 475m plant for license production of AK- 103 assault rifles and 7.62 cartridges * – delivery value more than USD 80m. ** – CAST estimate. Source: Russian and foreign press; CAST estimates.

Table 2. Major Identified Contracts for Delivery of Russian Arms Signed in 2010* Recipient Weapon designation Units Year(s) of Contract value, Notes ordered deliveries million USD Asia India Su-30MKI fighters 40 2012-? 800** Two aircraft will be upgraded by 2012 at Sukhoi upgrade program facilities, the rest at HAL facilities. The upgrades include new radars, computers, combat electronics and integration of the supersonic anti-ship BrahMos missiles Contract for front-end - 2011-2012 221 The total value of the front-end engineering design engineering design of a is 295m dollars, with a minimum 25 per cent fifth-generation fighter participation of India’s HAL corporation. R&D and testing of the aircraft will take 8-10 years to complete. The overall cost of the fifth-generation fighter program is estimated at 12bn dollars Contract to develop the - 2010-2018 300 The overall cost of the project is 600m dollars. Each MTA military transport party will contribute 300m. The maiden flight is aircraft expected in 2016, launch of mass production in 2018 MiG-29K/KUB carrier- 29 2012-? 1500 Option to a 2004 contract based fighters

10 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Arms Trade

Recipient Weapon designation Units Year(s) of Contract value, Notes ordered deliveries million USD India BrahMos anti-ship n/a n/a 2000 The whole contract is worth 4bn dollars. The share missiles of NPO Machine-building in the Brahmos Aerospace joint venture is 49.5 per cent Vietnam Su-30MK2 fighters 12 2011-2012 1000 The contract also includes the delivery of weapons for the first eight fighter jets which Vietnam ordered in 2009 Middle East Algeria Su-30MKI(A) fighters 16 2011-? 1000 Libya Yak-130 advanced jet 6 2011-2012 90 trainers T-72 MBTs upgrade 145 n/a 300** program Construction of a plant - n/a 600** It is expected that some 500,000 assault rifles will be for license production of made under the licensing deal AK-103-2 assault rifles Other countries Uganda Su-30MK2 fighters 8 2011-2012 350 Cyprus T-80U MBTs 41 2011 152 From the Russian army surplus. The tanks are to be refurbished at the Omsktraktormash plant, part of NPK Uralvagonzavod (UVZ). The contract is worth 115m euros Poland Mi-17 helicopters 5 2010-2011 106 For military operations in Afghanistan Peru Mi-171Sh / Mi-35P 6 / 2 2010-2011 89 helicopters * – delivery value more than USD 80m. ** – CAST estimate. Sources: Russian and foreign press; CAST estimates.

1 Source: www.inflationdata.com. 2 This and other comparisons are with the figures of our 2009 arms trade roundup published in the No 6 issue of the Eksport Vooruzheniy journal in 2009. 3 The 2009 roundup erroneously assumed that one diesel-electric sub had been delivered in 2009.

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 11 Russian Arms Trade in 2010 Procurement

Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Andrey Frolov

he international situation with defense spending has is now a consensus in the government that the country should Tundergone a serious shift. On the one hand, the leading spend about 3 per cent of its gross domestic product on the Western powers involved in the Afghan campaign (except armed forces.1 for the United States) are cutting their defense budgets. On Under the spending plans already unveiled, the financing the other, “peaceful” nations such as China, India, Brazil and of the “National Defense” article in the federal budget will see Russia are increasing their own military spending. a 60 per cent increase by 2013 (non-adjusted for inflation) The aggregate defense budget of the NATO countries to 2.098 trillion roubles, up from 1.276 trillion in 2010. The will see a 45bn dollar fall by 2013. As European allies rapidly largest increase, by almost 450bn roubles, will come in 2013.2 cut their spending, the US share in the overall figure will rise Some of the additional funding made available to the to 70 per cent. Meanwhile, the US deficit reduction steps for armed forces will be spent on new uniforms for servicemen 2012 include austerity measures for the Pentagon as well: over and sports gear for conscripts and recruits. A large chunk will the next five years 78bn dollars will be saved through cuts to a be taken up by growing utility tariffs and food prices. Much of number of arms programs and other spending items. the sharp increase in spending in 2013 will be channeled into As a result of these cuts, NATO countries are not only higher pay for officers and soldiers serving under contract.3 slashing arms procurement budgets but also retiring some More fuel will be made available to the army for training of the existing systems. One example is Britain, where under purposes. Some of the new items approved in 2010 are the new Strategic Defence and Security Review unveiled in categorized as “force majeure” spending; for example, 500m late 2010, the armed forces will shrink very substantially as roubles will be spent in 2011 on new airborne firefighting part of the overall austerity drive. equipment. Russia, meanwhile, is moving in just the opposite Financing under the “nuclear weapons complex” line in direction. According to SIPRI, after a decade of non-stop the defense budget will increase to 26.968bn roubles in 2011, growth of military spending since 2001, Russia boasts the 27,475bn in 2012 and 30.299bn in 2013. In absolute figures world’s fifth-largest defense budget after the United States, that will translate into a 44 per cent increase in procurement, China, France and Britain. Under the existing plans that with 99.4 per cent of the extra money spent on weapons, growth will continue over the next decade until 2020. military hardware and special equipment.4 Most of the additional funding will be channeled The most interesting development, however, is the into two main areas. First, starting from 2012 Russia will increase in spending on the State Armament Program covering overhaul the system of payments to military servicemen. the period of 2011-2020 (Gosudarstvennaya Programma Second, procurement of new arms and military hardware Vooruzhenii 2011-2020, or the GPV-2020 document). The will continue to increase. Defense spending will keep rising government first announced that it was already working on in absolute figures and as a proportion of Russian GDP. There the program in early 2010. The news was unexpected, because

Table 1. Approved Russian spending on national defense and financing of defense procurement programs in 2011-2013

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total, bn roubles 1,276.8 1,517.1 1,655.7 2,098.6 Change on previous year, % 18.8 9.1 26.8 Share of Russian budget, % 12.48 14.23 14.73 17.24 Share of GDP, % 2.83 3.01 2.96 3.39 Defense procurement, billion roubles 487 575 726.8 1166 Change on previous year, % 18 26.4 60 Share of defense spending, % 38 38 44 55.6 Sources: protown.ru/information/hide/6372.html and www.press-release.ru/news/politics/4caecc197de86. 12 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Procurement

there had been no serious criticisms of the existing GPV Another change is that 30 per cent of the financing covering the period of 2007-2015 (GPV-2015), despite the under the GPV-2015 was to be disbursed in 2007-2011, traditional problems such as higher than expected inflation. and the remaining 70 per cent in 2012-2015. Under the new Work on the new program has attracted a lot of interest, but GPV-2020 program, the MoD has been allowed to sign an not much is known about the specific details. additional 700bn roubles worth of contracts in 2011‑2015 Total spending on the GPV-2020 program will be about (3.7 per cent of the total GPV funding for the MoD), 22-22.5 trillion roubles in 2010 prices, of which the MoD apparently bringing forward spending originally planned will receive 19 trillion. The remaining 2.5-3 trillion will be for later years.11 allocated to Russia’s other uniformed agencies.5 In terms of the spending structure, at least 10 per cent MoD officials have also unveiled their estimates of the of the GPV financing will be channeled into R&D, 80 per cent funding requirements for the individual branches of the into new weapons, and the remaining 10 per cent into repair armed forces. The figures were aired as part of the generals’ and upgrades of the existing equipment.12 effort to increase the budget allocation on the GPV-2020 These proportions do not match the already announced program from the initial 13 trillion roubles. spending structure for 2010-2013 (see Table 2). It seems that It was said that the Russian strategic nuclear forces, air procurement of new hardware will be ramped up after 2013, force and air defense alone would need 13 trillion roubles while the proportion of R&D and repairs in annual spending to buy all the new equipment they need. The ground forces will go down. That assumption is indirectly confirmed by would need 15 trillion,6 and the Navy another 8 trillion. If the the sharp increase in overall spending in 2013 and the huge MoD had its way, the whole GPV-2020 program would cost amounts of money that will be disbursed in 2014-2020. 36 trillion roubles, i.e. 89 per cent more than the approved It has been announced that out of the 19 trillion figure.7 Nevertheless, the procurement funding made roubles allocated to the MoD under the GPV-2020 program, available to the MoD as part of the GPV-2020 will cover 52 per 4.7 trillion will be spent on the Navy. About 30 per cent of that cent of its self-assessed requirements. The figure for the GPV- money (1.5 trillion) will be disbursed by 2015.13 Space troops 2015 document was only 15 per cent (4.94 trillion dollars of will receive 1 trillion.14 spending approved, compared to the initial allocation request The new program aims to increase the proportion of of 30 trillion).8 modern weapons in service with the Russian army. The The government has not yet made available any annual target for 2015 is 30 per cent across the armed forces, rising spending figures under the GPV-2020. But it has said that the to 70 per cent by 2020 and to 100 per cent in some weapons bulk of the moneys will be released well after the rollout of categories.15 In the Air Force, the 2020 target is even higher at the program in 2011. No changes will have to be made to the 80 per cent (and 100 per cent in some weapons categories).16 2011 federal budget, which was adopted ahead of the GPV- The annual weapons replacement ratio is expected to reach 2020 (the program had not been approved as of the early an average of 9-11 per cent.17 2011, although Prime Minister Putin had earlier ordered it to The GPV-2020 program in its current shape is rather be enacted by December 31, 2010 at the latest).9 It is known, vague about the specific weapons to be procured and their however, that the state procurement program will cost almost suppliers. It has a list of hardware the Russian army needs, 2.5 trillion roubles over the period of 2011-2013, with 575bn along with its specifications, but no further details. Unlike spent in 2011, 726.8bn in 2012 and 1,166bn in 2013.10 The the GPV-2015, the new program contains plans for buying remaining 16.5 trillion roubles will be disbursed over the foreign-made weapons.18 seven years from 2014 to 2020, with the annual GPV spending One final thing worth mentioning is that in addition to averaging 2.35 trillion roubles. But given that GPV financing weapons procurement, the government is planning a major will grow by at least 20 per cent every year in 2010-2013, and upgrade and retooling effort for the Russian defense industry jump by a phenomenal 64 per cent in 2012/2013, these targets as part of a separate federal program for 2011-2020. Work on do not seem unrealistic. the program continued in 2010; the initial budget allocation

Table 2. State defense order spending structure in 2013, %

Year New weapons Repair and upgrades R&D 2011 64 15 20 2012 66 15 18 2013 70 14 16 Sources: Frolov A. The future of Russian weapons // Security Index, 2011, No 1. # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 13 Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Procurement

for it was expected to reach 33bn roubles every year. But Conclusion according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade this level of funding is insufficient; the ministry has proposed to increase The key figures in the new GPV-2020 program and the defense it to 52-88bn roubles every year by 2020.19 allocation plans for 2011-2013 suggest that Russia will continue to increase its military spending at an even greater rate. The absolute figures for the overall military budget have Equipment to be procured been unveiled only for the next three years up to 2013. But it is already clear that the MoD’s arms procurement spending, In mid-2010 the government announced the key priorities set at 19 trillion dollars until 2020, is an unprecedented figure of the new GPV program. Traditionally, the top priority is for post-Soviet Russia. the strategic nuclear deterrent, which is expected to take A key turning point will be the year 2013, when defense up 10 per cent of the GPV funding (that includes the naval procurement spending will jump by over 60 per cent, with the component of the nuclear forces).20 The next priority is less overall defense budget increasing by a very impressive 26 per well defined; it is described as “high-precision weapons cent. Such a sharp rise cannot be explained by an increase in relying on space-based information components”. The R&D or repair and upgrades spending, which accounts for a third priority is automated command and control systems relatively small part of the GPV-2020. It can only result from (ACCS). The plan is to integrate all the individual control the beginning of large deliveries of new-generation weapons systems of the separate branches of the Russian armed forces systems, including the first batch of the T-50 fifth-generation into a unified system, and to upgrade that system using the fighter, new platforms for the ground troops, large numbers principles of open architecture, so that it could be expanded of the new Bulava SLBM, etc. and built upon in the future.21 Russia’s rapidly increasing military spending is in line The already announced MoD plans for new weapons with similar trends in Brazil, India and China, which are all contracts, R&D and repairs and upgrades are summarized reporting double-digit growth in defense budgets. This is in Table 3. one more thing that the BRIC countries have in common. The Most of the available information concerns the Russian reasons for that growth are also similar; all four countries are Air Force and Air Defense. One of the Air Force priorities spending more on combat training and new weapons to close is new helicopters. For Long-Range Aviation, the priority the gap with the leading Western powers. is to upgrade the existing Tu-160, Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 It would be wrong to conclude that Russia is on the path bombers and the Il-78M aerial tankers. Up to 80 per cent of towards rapid militarization. The country is merely trying to these aircraft will be upgraded in the medium time frame.22 resolve, as soon as possible, the critical problems in its armed In military transport aviation the plan is for a two-stage forces dating back from the 1990s. Even though defense approach over the medium time frame, with over 50 per cent spending is growing at a rapid pace, by 2013 it will still make of the existing planes replaced and the remaining upgraded.23 up “only” 3.39 per cent of GDP, which is even less than the In front-line aviation, in the medium term 50 per cent of the 3.5 per cent target set in 1998 under President Boris Yeltsin. fleet will be refreshed and about 14 per cent upgraded. In At the same time, one has to take into account the risks army aviation, new aircraft will make up 70 per cent of the facing the new program, whose success is contingent on fleet over the same period; eventually that proportion will the Russian economy doing well. Given the huge cost of the increase to 100 per cent.24 program, an economic downturn could well result in missed The Navy will continue buying large numbers of new targets and deadlines. There are also risks related to the ships and submarines designed in the 1990s-2000s. It will Russian defense industry’s ability to deliver on such massive also upgrade the few remaining 1st rank surface warships contracts, especially since much of the weaponry will be based and develop advanced new naval systems. The R&D program on completely new designs rather than tried and rested Soviet will include the design of a new nuclear-powered aircraft technology. Much of that industry’s manufacturing capacity carrier, with a possibility of the first ship in the series being is already booked by the foreign contracts that have been laid down towards the end of the GPV-2020 program. flowing in over the past several years in ever greater numbers. Very few details are available regarding procurement A lot will depend on the retooling and modernization of the plans for the ground troops. The MoD has said, however, that Russian defense contractors. But the money allocated for the it will freeze the development of new platforms for APCs, retooling program in the budget does not seem sufficient, and tanks and trucks.25 the industry’s own resources are fairly limited.

14 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Procurement

Table 3. Known SAP-2020 contracts and projects

Service New weapons Repair/upgrades R&D Strategic Missile Up to 150 Topol-M and Yars ICBMs New liquid-fuel ICBM Troops Space Troops 2 Voronezh-DM early-warning radar Future missile defense system stations, GLONASS-M and GLONASS-K Soyuz-2-1V launch vehicle navigation satellites, 1 early-warning Angara launch vehicle satellite, 5 Gonets-M communication Rus launch vehicle satellites Air Force 600 aircraft: 20 An-124 PAK DA 70 T-50 MiG-31 T-50 (until the beginning of batch 96 Su-35S deliveries in 2016) 48 MiG-35S New A-100 AWACS aircraft 12 Su-27SM3 up to 100 Su-34 16 Su-25UBM 20 An-124 60 An-70 50 Il-476 ~10 Tu-214 9 An-140 4 L-410 pp to 120 Yak-130 900 helicopters: 250 Mi-28N 120 Ka-52 22 Mi-35M 22 Mi-26 Air Defense S-400 – 52 battalions S-500 S-500 – 10 battalions Pantsir gun-missile systems Navy 6 Project 955 strategic nuclear-powered 1 Project 667BDRM strategic New nuclear-powered aircraft missile submarines nuclear-powered missile carrier 150 R-30 Bulava SLBMs submarine New A-42 search and rescue ~40 R-29RMU-2 Sineva SLBMs 2 Project 949A cruise missile aircraft 12 submarines of other types: nuclear-powered submarines New anti-ship missile 6 Project 885/885M nuclear-powered 1 Project 11435 heavy aircraft submarines carrying cruiser 3 Project 06363 diesel-electric subs 1-2 Project 11442 heavy nuclear- 2 Project 677 diesel-electric subs powered guided missile cruisers ~1 Project 1164 guided missile cruiser ~10 Su-33 2-4 Mistral-type amphibious assault ships 15 frigates: 6 Project 22350 6 Project 11356M 1 Project 11661K 2 new class 35 corvettes: 12Project 20380 23 new class 26 MiG-29K fighters 100 helicopters: 70 Ka-27M 30 Ka-52 and Ka-226

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 15 Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Procurement

Service New weapons Repair/upgrades R&D Ground troops 10 Islander tactical missile brigades (120 Universal heavy combat platform missile systems) (main battle tank, infantry fighting New APCS vehicle, etc) 3000 Iveco LMV M65 combat vehicles ~50,000 trucks Note: the table includes deliveries scheduled 2011, even if the actual contracts were signed earlier, or where the assembly/ construction of a weapon system takes a long time. Information accurate as of March 4, 2011.

1 State Armament Program for 2011-2020 will include procurement of weapons for anti-terrorism // ITAR-TASS, 26.05.2010. 2 Nikolskiy A., Tovkaylo M. Russia’s defense spending to rise by over 50 per cent to 2 trillion roubles by 2013 // Vedomosti, 30.07.2010 3 Nikolskiy A. Army gets a pay rise, 22.09.2010. 4 http://oren.ru/news/2526253. 5 Russia to spent 22.5 trillion roubles on the armament program over 10 years // RIA-Novosti, 22.09.2010. 6 Russian MoD estimates funding requirement for state armament program at 36 trillion roubles by 2020 // ITAR-TASS, 03.06.2010. 7 Ibid. 8 Nikolskiy A. No money spared for weapons // Vedomosti, 25.05.2010. 9 Main spending on state armament program to begin after 2011 – Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin // ARMS-TASS, 01.12.2010. 10 Calculated using information from: http://www.press-release.ru/news/politics/4caecc197de86/. 11 Tikhonov A. Components of invincibility // Krasnaya Zvezda, 25.02.2011. 12 http://news.mail.ru/politics/5395950/?state=90&frommail=1. 13 Vladimir Putin: Russia to spent 20 trillion roubles on new weapons // RBK, 13.12.2010. 14 Gavrilov Y. First deputy defense minister Vladimir Popovkin unveils rearmament plans // Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 12.07.2010. 15 Government to place orders with defense contractors who make competitive products - Putin // ITAR-TASS, 17.02.2010. 16 Russian Air Force fleet to be refreshed by one third by 2015 // Lenta.ru, 16.11.2010. 17 Enlarged session of the MoD // Russian president’s web site, 09.03.2010. 18 Interfax-AVN, 03.06.2010. 19 Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes to double the financing of defense industry upgrade and spend 52bn to 88bn roubles on it every year until 2020 // ITAR-TASS, 26.05.2010. 20 http://news.mail.ru/politics/5395950/?state=90&frommail=1. 21 Gavrilov Y. First deputy defense minister Vladimir Popovkin unveils rearmament plans // Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 12.07.2010. 22 Ibid. 23 Ibid. 24 Borisov S. Combat aviation on the verge of large-scale rearmament // Natsionalnaya Oborona, 2010, No 12. 25 Gavrilov Y. First deputy defense minister Vladimir Popovkin unveils rearmament plans // Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 12.07.2010.

16 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Military Spending in 2011-2020 Space

Russian Space Industry in 2010 Yuriy Zhuravin

ut of the 74 space launches worldwide in 2010, Russia However, an attempt by Roskosmos to “sell” a commercial Oconducted 31, beating the United States and China (15 Soyuz mission to India has been unsuccessful. In October launches apiece) to the first place by a wide margin. Compared 2010 New Delhi officially informed its Russian partners that to the previous year, Russian space activity was slightly down it was no longer interested in sending two of its astronauts from 33 launches out of the world total of 78. along with a Russian cosmonaut into space on a Soyuz ship Meanwhile, the paradox of the past two decades still in 2013. India said it would channel all its available resources remains: Russia conducts most of its launches from the into launching its own mission by 2015. territory of Kazakhstan. As many as 24 launches were made Meanwhile, in May 2010 the space shuttle Atlantis from the Baikonur cosmodrome, and only six from Russia’s (mission STS-132) brought a Russian-made Rassvet compact own Plesetsk. research module to the ISS. In fact, the purpose of the module One launch was conducted on June 15 from the Yasnyy had little to do with research. Rassvet is essentially a slightly missile base (Dombarovskiy position) in Orenburg Region. upgraded version of an old docking and storage module. Its The launch vehicle was a 15A18 ballistic missile, which is primary purpose is to enable the Soyuz and Progress ships designated as Dnepr space carrier when used to put payload to dock to the Zarya energy module. It was needed because into orbit. Although the event was a proper space launch, following the connection of America’s Leonardo module it was held as part of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces to the ISS on March 1, 2011, the Soyuz and Progress ships program to extend the service life of the R-36M UTTKh would have had nowhere to dock. Without Rassvet, Leonardo strategic missile system (15P018 under the GRAU index, would have blocked access to the Zarya docking end. Rassvet RS-20B under the START code, and SS-18 Mod. 4 under the has solved that problem, but it does not carry any research Pentagon and NATO classification). equipment; its only contents are cargo racks. Theoretically it In line with the previous years, 14 launches out of 31 can be filled up with research equipment, but the module is (45.2 per cent) were held to put foreign commercial payload not the best place on the ISS for research. It suffers from noise into orbit. Out of the 43 space vehicles put into orbit by and vibration produced by its own systems, and its placement Russian launchers, 20 (46.5 per cent) were foreign-made; within the ISS results in high levels of micro-accelerations, Russia therefore remains the world’s leading contractor compromising the “purity” of the weightlessness. for commercial launches. Eight out of the 20 vehicles were An undoubted achievement of the Russian part of the heavy geostationary communication satellites launched ISS program was the launch in 2010 of the first upgraded by Proton-M launch vehicles. Six Globalstar-2 low-orbit Soyuz TMA-M ship. It has new onboard computers and a communication satellites were put into orbit by a single new telemetry transmission system. Previously the Soyuz Soyuz-2-1a carrier on October 19. Russia also launched ships relied on an analogue telemetry transmission system; the EU’s CryoSat-2 research satellite, Japan’s SERVIS-2 the one used on Soyuz TMA-M is digital and more compact. experimental satellite, France’s Picard research satellite, The gross weight of the Soyuz has been reduced by 70 kg. On Sweden’s Prisma technological satellite, Ukraine’s “Future the minus side, the first launch of the new ship came a year Avionics Block” and Germany’s TanDEM-X Earth imaging behind the initial schedule. satellite in 2010. In fact, delays and slipping schedules have become the Out of the 17 non-commercial launches, eight were part norm for the Russian space industry over the past decade. A of the International Space Station (ISS) program, including perfect example is Russia’s global system of weather satellites. four manned Soyuz missions and four Progress resupply The last of the existing Russian weather satellites, the Meteor- missions. In line with the previous years, the Roskosmos 3M low-orbit vehicle, failed back in 2004. Its replacement, space agency had sold half the places in its manned a Meteor-M satellite, was due to be put into orbit in 2005, missions to NASA. Now that the Space Shuttle program has followed by the new geostationary Elektro-L satellite in 2006. been discontinued, the US space agency is forced to resort But the launches had suffered repeated delays. The Meteor-M to buying places on Soyuz missions to be able to send its was eventually launched only on September 16, 2009, and the astronauts to the ISS. Elektro-L on January 20, 2011. In addition, Roskosmos is now in talks with the Space But the heaviest blow for the reputation of the Russian Adventures company about an additional Soyuz mission space industry came on December 5, 2010, when a Proton-M to take two space tourists to the ISS starting from 2013. launch vehicle failed during the launch of the last three # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 17 Russian Space Industry in 2010 Space

GLONASS-M global navigation satellites required for the given an official reprimand. His deputy Viktor Remishevskiy GLONASS system to become fully operational. The incident lost his job. So did Vyacheslav Filin, the vice president/chief came only a week after President Medvedev said in his designer of space launchers at RKK Energia, the maker of message to the Federal Assembly on November 30 that “all the DM-3. the GLONASS satellites will have been put into orbit by the To save the situation with the GLONASS system, end of this year”. Roskosmos had to urgently include the launch of another The initial plan was to have all the GLONASS satellites three GLONASS-M satellites in its 2011 plans. That involves in place by late 2008. But by that provisional deadline only the purchase of the actual satellites, a Proton-M launch 18 satellites out of the required 24 were operational. The maker vehicle and a Briz-M upper stage. The launch is scheduled of the satellites, OAO Reshetnev Information Satellite Systems for the third quarter of 2011; ISS simply cannot assemble the (ISS), managed to increase its annual output from three three new satellites any sooner. The situation with the Russian units to six only in 2007. The promise by Roskosmos to have satellite navigation system has seen some improvement 24 satellites in orbit failed to materialize in 2009 as well: only following the launch of the new GLONASS-K1 satellite. But three were launched that year. Another three failed the quality the satellite is experimental, and its use in the GLONASS tests and their launch was delayed until March 1, 2010. In the system will be limited. meantime, five of the satellites already in orbit had failed. In Meanwhile, shortly after the failed launch in December September 2010 three new GLONASS-M satellites were put 2010, there was another failure on February 1, 2011. Due to a into obit, but shortly before that another two satellites already malfunctioning Briz-KM upper stage, a Rokot launch vehicle in orbit had also failed. The December 5, 2010 launch would put the GEO-IK-2 military geodesic satellite into the wrong have finally brought the number of operational GLONASS orbit. The Russian MoD later concluded that the satellite satellites in orbit to the required minimum of 24. But due cannot be used for its intended purpose. to an error in pre-launch calculations, too much fuel was Following that latest failure, Roskosmos came under loaded into the DM-3 upper stage, and the head section of a new wave of criticism from Deputy Prime Minister the space launcher became too heavy. As a result, the rocket Sergey Ivanov, whose remit includes the Russian space failed to put the head section (the DM-3 block with the three industry. Speaking on February 28 at an enlarged session GLONASS satellites) into their designated orbit. The whole of Roskosmos, he accused the Russian space agency of section partially disintegrated in the atmosphere; the debris falling behind on its commitments under the state defense landed in the southern Pacific. procurement program. “Out of the 11 space vehicles Following the incident, President Medvedev ordered commissioned under the defense procurement program Prosecutor-General Yuriy Chayka and the head of the for 2010, only five have been delivered,” he said. He added presidential administration’s audit directorate to investigate that “due to delays, six of the civilian space vehicles that the spending of funds allocated to the GLONASS program. were scheduled for launch last year had not been launched Shortly afterwards, the head of Roskosmos, Anatoliy by the year’s end”. “There is a steady pattern of missed Perminov, had this to say in an interview with the Izvestiya deadlines because the space vehicles are not being newspaper: “The situation [the loss of the satellites] is delivered on schedule,” Ivanov said. Roskosmos chief unpleasant, but it is not a catastrophe. The launch pad remains Anatoliy Perminov was forced to admit that “at present, intact, and there has been no loss of life.” Commenting on the the Federal Space Agency does not have a sufficient degree interview, President Medvedev’s aide Sergey Prihodko was of monitoring over the space industry companies that very critical: “The reaction by the leadership of Roskosmos manufacture the new space vehicles”. “It is now obvious that to the criticisms voiced by the President regarding the the failed launch of the GLONASS satellites last year had implementation of the GLONASS program is extremely resulted from insufficient monitoring of the work on the disconcerting. It is very strange that the leadership of new modifications of space vehicles at the space industry Roskosmos considers the absence of human casualties or companies,” Perminov added. It is not clear, through, what the fact that the launch pad remains intact as valid criteria for exactly he means by “new modifications”. The Proton-M assessing the progress of this very important state program. launch vehicles and the GLONASS-M satellites have been The criteria should be very different; in particular, they have in production since 2001. The DM-3 upper stage had been to take into account the state of the equipment. The criteria in use since 1994; in fact, the December 2010 launch was its used by Perminov are simply not good enough. Such a level last, the DM-3 has now been discontinued. of ‘self-criticism’ requires very serious conclusions to be Six space launches were carried out in 2010 for drawn”. the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Kobalt-M optical As a result, following a report submitted to President reconnaissance satellite launched on April 16, 2010 (official Medvedev by Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov, on designation Kosmos-2462)1 and the 73D6 satellite of the Oko December 29 2010 Roskosmos chief Anatoliy Perminov was missile attack warning system launched on September 30 18 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russian Space Industry in 2010 Space

(official designation Kosmos-2469)2 were probably the last in All these satellites, apart from the Meridian, are their respective series; both have long reached obsolescence. upgraded versions of old Soviet technology. The commander The remaining four launches were military and special of the Russian Space Troops, Maj-Gen Oleg Ostapenko, has communications satellites: long predicted the transition to new satellites with longer •• Globus-1 M (Raduga-1M-2)3 geostationary satellite service life. But these plans continue to suffer from repeated launched on January 28 delays as the Russian space industry is missing deadline •• Parus navigation and communication satellite for the after deadline. Russian Navy (Kosmos-24634, launched in April 27) The situation is unlikely to change in 2011. “There will •• Strela-3 and Strela-3M (Kosmos-2467 and be about the same number of space launches this year as Kosmos-2468)5 low-orbit military reconnaissance in 2010,” Roskosmos chief Anatoliy Perminov has said. He satellites; and added that “the plan is to conduct 33 launches in 2011, but we •• Meridian6 high-orbit satellite launched on November 2. expect the actual figure to be in the range of 27-30”.

1 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/04/kosmos-2462-ocherednoy_kobalt-m.shtml. 2 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/09/-2469.shtml. 3 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/01/novyi_sputnik_svyazi_raduga.shtml. 4 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/04/kosmos-2463_popolnil_gruppirovku.shtml. 5 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/09/-.shtml. 6 http://russianforces.org/rus/blog/2010/11/sputnik_svyazi_meridian.shtml.

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 19 Russian Space Industry in 2010 Armed Forces

Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Aleksandr Belevitin, head of the Main Military Medical Service Department of the Russian MoD

he new look of the Russian Armed Forces, set out in in Saratov, Samara and Tomsk by the end of 2010, as well as TPresidential Decree “On some aspects of the Russian to abolish the MoD’s State Medical Post-Graduate Institute. Armed Forces” (No 1878 of December 29, 2009) and the appropriate MoD directives, requires the Medical Service of the armed forces to bring its structure and numerical Organization of medical services strength into compliance with the new parameters. There are two main directions of reform: Under the existing legislation some 7 million Russians •• Build a three-tier system of medical service in the are entitled to receive medical assistance at MoD medical Russian Armed Forces; facilities (see Fig. 1). Medical services to military personnel •• Optimize the officer numbers in the Medical Service. are provided by their local military medical centers, within the catchment area of the respective Military District or Navy The new three-tier system of medical service will Fleet. Organization of the provision of medical services in the include: Armed Forces follows the territorial principle, which leads to •• Tier One: prevention and hospital treatment of personnel greater efficiency. by the medical service of the respective military units The Medical Service of the Russian Armed Forces (medical companies of the brigades, medical services now comprises 13 central military hospitals (including 105 of other military units); branches), plus the clinics of the Kirov Military Medical •• Tier Two: qualified and specialized medical assistance Academy and the Military Medical Institutes (in Saratov, provided by Military District (Fleet) hospitals in each Samara and Tomsk). The total number of hospital beds in of the districts; the system is over 30,000, with more than 800,000 people •• Tier Three: specialized and highly advanced medical receiving inpatient treatment each year. assistance provided by the Military Medical Academy, The current priority for the military hospitals and the Main Military Clinical Hospital and the 2nd and 3rd clinics is to deliver improvements in the following areas: Central Military Clinical Hospitals.

The new three-tier system will enable to Medical Service Figure 1. Categories entitled to receive medi- of the armed forces to: cal services at MoD medical centers •• Ensure continuity of outpatient and inpatient care; •• Use the available medical equipment more efficiently; 7 million people •• Optimize the numbers of administrators and create a in total clear chain of command; Civilian •• Centralize the funding of the military medical services contractors by giving the 2nd and 3rd tier medical centers the authority 11% to make budget spending decisions. Members of servicemen's Under the program of optimizing officer numbers in the and MoD Military medical service more than 30 per cent of the existing officer pensioners' personnel positions will be replaced by civilian contractors. The families 16% number of officer positions in the new-look Medical Service 60% of the Russian Armed Forces will be cut to about 5,800. The annual recruitment of military doctors will be reduced MoD pensioners commensurately to about 300 – that number of specialists 13% can be supplied by the Military Medical Academy alone. As a result, the MoD has decided to cut the Academy’s branches Source: Russian MoD. 20 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Armed Forces

•• Reorganize inpatient treatment taking into account •• Prevention of the most common illnesses and injuries the availability of resources, as well as the numbers in the armed forces; and structure of the categories of people entitled to •• Placing greater emphasis on prevention and timely treatment; diagnosis; •• Pursue deeper specialization of medical centers and •• Further improvement of the system of regular health continue to implement special programs in this area; examinations and monitoring; •• Place greater emphasis of rehabilitation treatment; •• Promoting a healthy lifestyle among military personnel; •• Continue to improve the skills of medical personnel at •• Improving the quality of medical monitoring of the MoD hospitals; fitness training system in the armed forces; •• Implement more stringent controls over the •• Improving the availability of medical supplies and performance of the MoD medical centers and their equipment. branches. One of the top priorities in the ongoing reform is The MoD continues to develop the system of outpatient the provision of medical services to the personnel of the care, with more than 15.3 million visits per year, as well as permanent-readiness military units and formations. The 5 million medical procedures, 17.2 million diagnostic tests restructuring of the medical services in the troops includes and 122,000 out-patient surgical procedures performed in maintaining the right balance between the number of doctors, 2009. The main areas in which the MoD is seeking further nurses and paramedics. All the permanent-readiness units improvements include: and formations of the Russian Armed Forces now have the •• Optimization of the network of outpatient centers based optimum structure of the medical services. These services on the numbers and structure of the patient categories have a permanent-readiness component which always entitled to treatment; remains on stand-by, ready to provide assistance to civilian •• Improving the quality of outpatient diagnostics and authorities in disaster relief or deploy rapidly in the event of treatment based on the latest medical standards; combat operations. •• Continuity of outpatient and inpatient medical care; On March 3, 2009 the minister of defense issued Order •• Cutting costs of outpatient care while improving No 210 “On additional payments to be made in 2010 to efficiency; officers serving in the Russian Armed Forces”. In accordance •• Implementing strategies to replace inpatient care with with that decree, some 642 officers of the Medical Service outpatient care wherever possible, which is one of the have been rewarded for good performance by a monthly key areas of reform of the military medical system bonus, which has been a significant incentive to work in (deploying daytime inpatient centers, outpatient the service. surgeries and specialized departments); •• Further specialization of medical centers and large diagnostic outpatient centers; Health of the Russian servicemen •• Implementing latest approaches to preventive medicine and its main components: in-depth medical The health of the young Russian conscripts generally leaves examinations and regular health check-ups; much to be desired. The number of conscription-age people •• Equipping medical centers with the latest medical who are medically fit to serve in the army fell from 70.4 per technology to improve the standards of diagnostics cent in 2007 to 68.4 per cent in 2009. The figure is the lowest and treatment. in Russia’s richest and most urbanized regions: 65.2 per cent in the Siberian Military District and 66.9 per cent in the The MoD places particular emphasis on improving the Moscow Military District. In the North-Caucasus and Far quality of medical services provided to military personnel. Eastern districts it stands at a higher than average 72.6 per These services play a central role in primary prevention cent and 72.2 per cent, respectively. of illnesses among the servicemen and in maintaining the The number of young conscripts who are declared combat readiness of the Russian troops. The military medical medically unfit to serve for spurious reasons has been falling system has become even more important now that military steadily in recent years. This shows that the conscription units are manned primarily by professional soldiers, with the commissions are doing a better job identifying malingerers, remaining conscripts now being drafted for only one year. thanks to the growing involvement of MoD doctors. In The priorities of the segment of the military medical system 2009 the MoD and the General Staff issued new guidelines catering to the needs of military personnel include: under which some 279 MoD doctors were included on the •• Continuous and targeted training courses to improve commissions during the spring draft, and 494 during the the qualification of medical specialists; autumn draft. # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 21 Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Armed Forces

Figure 2. Main medical reasons for recog- Rehabilitation and health resort treatment nizing Russian citizens as unfit for military As part of the ongoing effort to improve the health of military service during the 2009 draft campaign servicemen and prevent their early retirement for health reasons, the MoD Medical Service is taking part in the Bone and muscle diseases implementation of the strategic plan for the improvement 19.7% of medical, rehabilitation and health resort services in the Russian Armed Forces until 2020. The plan is part of the Other Social Strategy the Russian Armed Forces to 2020. 38.8% Rehabilitation and health resort treatment is one of the Mental key components of the Medial Service. Such treatment is disorders offered at 45 military rehabilitation and health resorts owned 13.4% by the Russian MoD. In 2009 some 205,800 active and retired military servicemen, members of their families and civilian MoD Gastrointestinal contractors took a treatment course at one of these resorts, Heart disease 8.9% illnesses 10.5% which is a 10 per cent increase on 2008. The breakdown Nervous system of these numbers by categories is shown on Figure 3. illnesses 8.7% In addition, some 1,200 military servicemen underwent Source: Russian MoD. medical rehabilitation treatment at one of the military health resorts after receiving hospital treatment. On May 8, 2009 the Minister of Defense issued Order No 385 “On psychological rehabilitation of servicemen Another new feature of the 2009 autumn draft of the Russian Armed Forces”. The order has enabled the campaign was that MoD doctors were brought in to verify MoD Medical Service to begin, for the first time since 1991, the conclusions of the municipal conscription commissions providing psychological rehabilitation treatment to some about declaring conscripts unfit for military service for categories of servicemen. Such treatment can keep soldiers medical reasons. That practice was introduced in 49 Russian fit both mentally and physically; it improves their combat- administrative regions. As a result, some 23,000 conscripts readiness and helps to prevent early retirement for health who had been declared unfit to serve by the municipal reasons. commissions were ordered to undergo repeat medical Some 2,000 military servicemen took a psychological checks. About 6,000 of them were subsequently recognized rehabilitation course at one of the MoD rehabilitation and as fit to serve, rescinding the conclusions of the municipal health resort treatment centers in 2009. The breakdown of commissions. these numbers by branch of the armed service is as follows: One of the key tasks of the military medical service is •• Airborne Assault Troops: 2%; to make sure that people with socially dangerous medical •• Strategic Missile Troops standby forces: 18.8%; conditions (TB, HIV, chronic hepatitis, drug addiction) are •• Air Force: 11%; not misdiagnosed and drafted to serve in the army. In 2009 •• Space Troops and Air Force stand-by forces: 11.3%; TB accounted for 2.8 per cent of all cases of conscripts being •• Ship-based Aviation: 22%; declared unfit to serve, HIV for 0.3 per cent, and chronic viral •• Surface ships personnel: 8.9%; hepatitis for 2.5 per cent. In absolute numbers that translates •• Submarine personnel: 19%; into 502 conscripts identified as HIV-positive and 3,224 •• Others, including deep-sea divers and marines: 5%. diagnosed with TB. In order to make sure that the conditions which make As part of the ongoing efforts to improve the provision conscripts unfit for service are properly diagnosed, and of health resort and recreation treatment for children of that only healthy conscripts are recruited to the Russian military servicemen, including orphans and children armed forces, the MoD is equipping the medical conscription left without parental care, students of the Suvorov Army commissions with the latest technology. The number of Military School, the Nakhimov Navy School, military conscripts drafted and then dismissed from service for musical schools and marine cadet schools, the MoD has medical reasons is showing a downward trend - from 0.3 per issued Orders No 151 and 152 of April 9, 2009, and No 500 of cent in 2007 to 0.15 per cent in 2008 and 0.11per cent in 2009. June 11, 2009. In accordance with these decisions, the Main That is an indication that the quality of the MoD Medical Military Medical Directorate of the MoD ran 27 children’s Service continues to improve. recreation camps in 2009; some 12,000 children of Russian 22 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Armed Forces

military servicemen and civilian contractors of the MoD by 45 per cent, which will result in more patients being were offered places in those camps. The MoD has also paid able to receive it; for rehabilitation and health resort treatment for children •• Ensure reliable prevention of illnesses and disease of military servicemen at the Central Children’s Sanatorium outbreaks among the Russian troops. in Pyatigorsk. In 2009 the MoD launched a new swimming pool built at the Kislovodsk MoD health resort. Projects nearing Medical supplies and equipment completion include a new 200-bed dormitory with an attached canteen at the Zolotoy Bereg MoD health resort The new three-tier system of medical services requires (Anapa), a refurbished 200-bed dormitory at the Sochi further improvement of the provision of medial supplies and MoD health resort and a refurbished swimming pool at equipment. As part of the reform, the MoD is implementing the the Pyatigorsk MoD health resort. The MoD is planning to following measures at every Military District and Navy Fleet: build a new 2,500-bed dormitory, with all the attendant •• Set up medical equipment and supplies provision centers; infrastructure, at the Desantnik health resort in Anapa and •• Introduce new medical logistics departments at MoD another swimming pool at the Yessentuki health resort. It hospitals; the departments are tasked with providing is also planning to start offering higher-quality buffet-type medical equipment and supplies to the military units catering at its resorts. and army medical centers in their respective areas of The implementation of the MoD strategy of medical responsibility; and health-resort services will enable the Military Medical •• Redistribute the existing stocks of medical supplies and Service to: equipment. •• Improve the health of servicemen and their families, achieve a 55 per cent reduction in mortality from heart The MoD plans to continue optimization of the staff diseases, a 37.5 per cent reduction in socially dangerous structure of medical logistics departments at the Military diseases, and a 37.5 per cent reduction in diseases District and Navy Fleet central hospitals following the leading to disability; incorporation of smaller hospitals and outpatient centers •• Implement disease prevention sub-programs, including into the big central hospitals as branches and affiliates. the program to increase the numbers of people The system of medical supplies and equipment receiving outpatient treatment. That will translate into provision will be built according to the territorial principle. improvements in the quality of medical treatment and The system of centralized medical supplies will be dominated more efficient use of the available beds. The MoD aims by targeted supplies to the end recipient (military unit or to cut the cost of providing high-tech medical assistance establishment). The system of drugs distribution will remain a combination of centralized and decentralized mechanisms. The MoD puts great emphasis on equipping its medical Figure 3. Categories of people who received centers with the latest technology. The 2010-2011 military rehabilitation and health resort treatment procurement program includes more than 500 articles of medical at one of the military health resorts in 2009 equipment worth a total of 6.5bn roubles. Some 277 of these articles will be delivered in 2010, including X-ray and ultrasound diagnostic tools, surgery and neurosurgery equipment, function Military personnel study instruments and endoscopy equipment. Civilian MoD 16% contractors Part of the MoD strategy for medical services is 11% Members accumulating and maintaining emergency reserves of of servicemen's various medical supplies. In 2010 the ministry will complete families the development of a new system of standardized supplies 22% at that segment of the MoD Medical Service which caters to the troops. The new system will optimize the maintenance of emergency supplies and reduce refreshment costs. The number of standard kits of medical supplies, tools and Members equipment will be reduced from 71 to 45. The rollout of the of MoD pensioners' new system is scheduled to begin in 2011. families MoD pensioners 13% The ongoing effort to equip the military units, outpatient 38% centers and hospitals with the latest medical technology will radically improve the whole system of disease prevention, Source: Russian MoD. diagnostics and treatment. # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 23 Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Armed Forces

Research technology policy and greater use of the latest advances in IT. The MoD aims to equip soldiers on the battlefield The efficiency of the medical service relies to a great extent with individual medical information chips, vital function on the latest medical research and development. The MoD monitors, and temporary hemostasis technology. It also aims to improve the R&D component of its medical service plans to introduce robotic systems to locate injured soldiers, by implementing the following steps: remove them safely from the battlefield and continuously •• Optimize administration and management of its monitor their vital signs while they are being delivered to medical research programs; hospital. •• Conduct a review of the existing research programs and Another priority that still remains relevant is joint evaluate their potential returns; research by the Medical Service and NBC Troops to develop •• Make sure that the priorities of medical research are more efficient NBC protection technology using the latest in line with the overall priorities of the Russian Armed advances in molecular biology, as well as gene engineering Forces; and cell engineering. •• Pool the available R&D resources to use them more efficiently and launch a comprehensive retooling *** program; Implementing these radical transformations of the •• Implement economic analysis instruments to assess the Medical Service as part of the ongoing reform of the Russian potential returns of any proposed new research; Armed Forces will enable the service better to perform the •• Make better use of the latest information technologies tasks outlined for it by the MoD: in MoD medical research; •• Maintain guaranteed standards of medical service •• Prioritize research spending to focus on the provided to all the entitled groups according to the most promising and innovative areas, including territorial principle; nanotechnology and biotechnology; •• Complete the optimization of the structure and numbers •• Develop a system of evaluating the returns delivered by of the Medical Service as part of the transition to the individual research programs. new look of the Armed Forces; •• Improve the availability of equipment and technology The ongoing restructuring of the MoD medical research at the MoD medical centers by licensing their work and programs aims to achieve greater coordination between making them part of the compulsory medical insurance them. It is part of the greater national effort to reorganize system; science and education so as to bolster fundamental and •• Implement the medical and rehabilitation component applied research. of the Social Strategy of the Russian Armed Forces to The MoD has decided that from now on, all its medical 2020; research programs will be coordinated by the Military •• Ensure uninterrupted and sufficient provision of Medical Academy. The State Research and Development medical supplies and equipment to units of the armed Institute of Military Medicine will be incorporated into the forces and MoD medical centers within the allocated Academy as a separate branch. The institute will retain its budget financing; role as the lead fundamental and applied research center in •• Comply with the targets of the 2010 State Defense this area. Procurement Program; The transition to a new-look Medical Service of the •• Ensure that the targets for the delivery and use of Russian Armed Forces includes the development of a new medical equipment at the MoD facilities are met.

24 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Russia’s “New-Look” Army: the Medical Service Armed Forces

Demographics vs the Russian Army Mikhail Lukanin

onscripts still make up the bulk of the Russian armed The 3 million figure also includes a large number of Cforces. But the Ministry of Defense has lately been young males who have never been drafted because they have running into ever greater difficulties with drafting sufficient a criminal record (up to 1m people, according to various numbers of young Russians. In an effort to meet their estimates). Under Russian law, after a certain period the conscription targets, the military are now even resorting to former convict’s criminal record is erased, and he once again the use of police to round up young men of the right age in becomes eligible for enlistment. Nevertheless, from time the streets and march them to the enlistment offices. Shortage to time the enlistment offices have declared moratoria on of recruits has become especially acute since 2008, when the drafting former convicts. The last time they were enlisted term of the draft was reduced from two years to 12 months, (some 23,000 of them) was during the spring 2009 draft. But meaning that twice as many individual conscripts were now in the autumn of that same year Defense Minister Anatoliy needed to keep the military units fully manned. To illustrate, Serdyukov banned the practice, and the ban remains in effect in the autumn of 2010 some 278,800 young men were drafted. to this day.4 In the autumn of 2007, the last draft campaign before the For the army, the most desirable age group is 18 to 20 conscription term was halved, only 123,300 conscripts were year olds. According to military medics, that is the group that required (see table at the bottom). has the largest proportion of young men medically fit to serve. “The task of recruiting enough young men fit to serve But the group itself has been shrinking steadily in recent in the armed forces is being hampered by the unfavorable years. In 2000-2006 the number of 18 year olds registered demographic situation and other difficulties,” said Gen Vasiliy with the enlistment offices each year was 1.2-1.3 million. Smirnov, head of the Main Organization and Mobilization Since then, that figure has been falling by about 100,000 Directorate of the General Staff.1 people every year. That statement, made on April 29, 2010 at a round table According to demographic forecasts, some 678,000 in the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, was the young Russian men will reach the enlistment age in 2014. first official recognition of the problem. Up until then, the In 2015 the figure will fall to 659,000, then rise slightly to generals continued to insist that their conscription targets 663,000 people in 2016 (see table at the bottom). But the vast were entirely realistic and that there were enough young men majority of young people leaving high school immediately in Russia fit to serve. As recently as in early April 2010, Gen begin university education or vocational training, which Smirnov himself reiterated his earlier assurances that there makes them eligible for deferment of military service. were more than 3m citizens of conscription age (18 to 27 year Meanwhile, in another year or two every young person olds) in Russia, and that the enlistment offices should have no leaving high school will theoretically be able to become a problem recruiting the required number of conscripts. (His student because the number of places available at the Russian precise words were, “the number of citizens of conscription universities and colleges will catch up with the number of age in Russia, I mean 18 to 27 year olds, is very significant, it high school graduates. is more that 3 million”.)2 The problem posed by the shortage of conscripts could But some military experts have long warned the be solved by filling up the private and sergeant vacancies generals that such estimates are too optimistic and fail to in the armed forces with professional soldiers serving take into account the real situation with the availability of under contract. Plans to that effect were made in the past Russian citizens fit to serve in the armed forces. “Starting as part of the drive to have all the key military units that from 2007 Russia has found itself in a deep demographic determine the overall fighting ability of the Russian armed trough as a result of the plummeting fertility rates in the late forces manned only by professional soldiers. Under a special 1980s-early 1990s, which was the most difficult period in our federal program, by 2008 more than half of all the sergeants country’s recent history,” says Vitaliy Tsymbal, head of the serving in the Russian ground forces were supposed to be military economics laboratory at the Institute of Transitional professionals. All the ships of the Russian Navy and some of Period Economy.3 the units of the Airborne Assault Troops were supposed to As for the 3m people bandied about by the MoD officials, be manned by professionals only. But those plans have fallen the figure presumably consists mostly of the under-25 year through. olds who have never been drafted for a variety of reasons, Huge numbers of professional soldiers who were already such as poor health or inadequate education. serving under contract refused to extend their contracts # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 25 Russian Armed Forces Abroad Armed Forces

because their pay, at 9,000-12,000 roubles a month (300-400 its conscripts with the other uniformed agencies, such as dollars) was too low. As a result, out of the 140,000 junior the Federal Agency for Special Construction, the External specialists previously enlisted for professional service in Intelligence Service and the Special Facilities Service the armed forces, less than 30,000 are still serving. Painfully attached to the office of the Russian president. Those agencies aware of the situation, in early 2010 the Russian MoD normally take up 10-15 per cent of the conscripts. “We have officially recognized that the experiment with professional proposed changes to the legislation whereby starting from the army service had failed, and decided not to extend it. All autumn of 2010, conscripts will no longer serve in the Federal the bets have now been placed on ramping up the numbers Agency for Special Construction, the External Intelligence of conscripts drafted each year. The chief of the Russian Service or the Special Facilities Service under the Russian General Staff, Gen Nikolay Makarov, estimates the annual president,” deputy chief of the General Staff Vasiliy Smirnov requirement at 700,000 conscripts. “As part of the ‘New said. He added that the MoD had proposed a radical cut in the Look’ reform of the armed forces we are going to draft about number of conscripts allocated to the Interior Troops under 700,000 people for military service every year,” the general the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the civil defense troops has said.5 under the Emergencies Ministry.6 But it is still not clear how the MoD can resolve the During the latest conscription campaign (Autumn demographics conundrum. One of the proposed ways 2010), the military enlistment centers, which are run by the of addressing the shortage of conscripts is to abolish the MoD, sent far fewer recruits then planned to the Interior practice of deferred conscription for university students, so Troops. According to sources in the Main Command of the that they could be drafted after their first or second year of Interior Troops, the plan was for 27,000 conscripts; it was studies. Right now, some 1.3m young men are making use of later cut to 20,000, and the actual number allocated by the the deferral provision each year. The plan is to grant students enlistment offices was only 18,500.7 a year-long break from their studies for the duration of their Many observers are skeptical about the MoD’s plans service in the armed forces. to broaden the pool of potential conscripts. The idea of But the generals have gone even further than that. To abolishing deferment for students looks especially flimsy. increase the number of people of conscription age, they Military experts are confident that the powerful university propose that the upper limit of that age should be changed lobby, which has a lot of clout in the Russian government, from the current 27 years old to 30. In addition, the MoD, will fight the plan tooth and nail. The conscription system, on which is Russia’s only agency authorized to conduct the draft, which the Russian army relies for the bulk of its servicemen, has already declared that it is no longer willing to “share” is clearly facing a very serious crisis. Table 1. Russian conscription statistics for 1994-2009

Year Campaign Plan Evaded Annual plan Potential % drafted Change from Change Evaders as conscripts, previous from previ- proportion of total campaign, % ous year, % draft target, % 1994 spring 216 000 27 500 12.73 467 600 1 092 321 42.81 autumn 251 600 16.48 1995 spring 209 800 -16.61 434 200 1 088 833 39.88 -7.14 autumn 224 400 6.96 1996 spring 200 200 -10.78 415 200 1 100 598 37.72 -4.38 autumn 215 000 30 000 7.39 13.95 1997 spring 214 160 31 000 -0.39 14.48 402 562 1 115 312 36.09 -3.04 autumn 188 402 40 000 -12.03 21.23 1998 spring 189 790 21 000 0.74 11.06 348 302 1 170 248 29.76 -13.48 autumn 158 512 19 600 -16.48 12.36 1999 spring 168 776 24 000 6.48 14.22 373 690 1 162 951 32.13 7.29 autumn 204 914 37 982 21.41 18.54 2000 spring 191 612 27 712 -6.49 14.46 383 263 1 234 028 31.06 2.56 autumn 191 651 31 500 0.02 16.44 26 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Demographics vs the Russian Army Armed Forces

Year Campaign Plan Evaded Annual plan Potential % drafted Change from Change Evaders as conscripts, previous from previ- proportion of total campaign, % ous year, % draft target, % 2001 spring 187 995 27 000 -1.91 14.36 382 819 1 325 599 28.88 -0,12 autumn 194 824 29 000 3.63 14.89 2002 spring 161 732 30 471 -16.99 18.84 335 947 1 306 873 25.71 -12.24 autumn 174 215 21 000 7.72 12.05 2003 spring 175 050 20 100 0.48 11.48 350 856 1 266 227 27.71 4.44 autumn 175 806 18 000 0.43 10.24 2004 spring 166 050 17 000 -5.55 10.24 342 443 1 291 147 26.52 -2.40 autumn 176 393 21 000 6.23 11.91 2005 spring 157 700 15 000 -10.60 9.51 298 600 1 314 341 22.72 -12.80 autumn 140 900 18 608 -10.65 13.21 2006 spring 124 550 12 132 -11.60 9.74 247 860 1 247 787 19.86 -16.99 autumn 123 310 11 955 -1.00 9.70 2007 spring 133 500 13 101 8.26 9.81 265 850 1 145 059 23.22 7.26 autumn 132 350 10 657 -0.86 8.05 2008 spring 133 200 6 700 0.64 5.03 352 200 1 081 671 32.56 32.48 autumn 219 000 4 800 64.41 2.19 2009 spring 305 506 8 195 39.50 2.68 576 526 963 123 59.86 63.69 autumn 271 020 -11.29 Table prepared by Mikhail Lukin, Kommersant publishing house.

1 Making a man out of a conscript // Delovaya gazeta ‘Vzglyad’, 29.04.2010. Original source: Interfax, 29.04.2010. 2 Interview with Ekho Moskvy radio’s Military Council program, 3.04.2010. 3 Tsymbal’s interview with the author for this article. A similar statement was made in the article: Lukanin M., Rank and file // Trud, 02.04.2010. 4 Lukanin M. Convicts and the Russian army // Trud, 05.10.2009. 5 Interfax, 17.12.2009. 6 Interfax, 29.04.2010. 7 Russian Interior Troops fail to meet the autumn conscription target // Lenta.ru, 03.03.2011.

# 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief 27 Demographics vs the Russian Army Armed Forces

Our Authors

Andrey Frolov. Graduated with an honours degree from the Faculty of Foreign Affairs of Saint Petersburg State University and in 2003 from the French-Russian Masters’ School of Political Science and International Relations. In 2003–2004 – researcher at the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR-Center), executive editor of Yaderny Kontrol magazine (in Russian). In 2004 – project manager of Export control system transformation in Russia.

Mikhail Lukanin graduated from the Lviv Higher Military-Political School with a degree in Journalism. Worked as a correspondent of the Baltic Fleet’s newspaper Strazh Baltiki in 1977-1983, then joined the main newspaper of the Soviet Defense Ministry, Krasnya zvezda, where he worked as permanent correspondent for the Baltic and Pacific fleets, then as deputy editor-in-chief. Covered the military campaign in Chechnya in 1995. Military observer for the Trud newspaper since 2007 to date. Captain 1st Rank (in reserve).

Mikhail Lukin. Graduated in 1992 from Moscow State University with a degree in Journalism. In 1990 joined the Postfactum news agency as an editor. In 1993 became a staff member of the XX Century and the World think-tank, and in 1994–1997 worked as head of the information section in the National News Service. In 1997 became deputy director of the information center of the Kommersant Publishing House. Director of the information center of the Kommersant Publishing House since 2003.

Konstantin Makienko. Graduated from the Oriental Department of the Moscow National Institute for International Relations in 1995 and the French-Russian Masters’ School of Political Science and International Relations in 1996. He was head of a project on conventional armaments at the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR-Center) in 1996-1997. Since September of 1997, he has been Deputy Director of CAST. He is the author of numerous articles on Russia’s military-technical cooperation with other countries.

Dmitry Vasiliev. Graduated in 2004 from the State University – Higher School of Economics with a Master’s Degree in Strategic Management. From 2003 to mid-2004 worked as a risk evaluation analyst at Absolut Bank. CAST researcher since July 2004, editor-in-chief of Eksport Vooruzheniy journal since 2005.

28 # 1, 2011 Moscow Defense Brief Demographics vs the Russian Army