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Downloads/2014/05/UGMP-Opinion-Poll-Report-May-2014.Pdf A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/127926 Copyright and reuse: This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Electoral coalition-building among opposition parties in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Uganda from 2000 to 2017 Nicole Anne Beardsworth Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies (PAIS) at the University of Warwick. June 2018 78 241 words Contents List of Figures and Tables 3 Acknowledgements 5 Declaration and Inclusion of Published Work 7 Abstract 8 Abbreviations 9 1. Introduction 11 1.1 The Puzzle 11 1.1.1 Research Questions 12 1.1.2 Opposition Pre-Electoral Coalitions in Africa 13 1.1.3 The Argument 38 1.2 Design and Methods 42 1.2.1 Case Studies and Process Tracing 42 1.2.2 Case Selection 46 1.2.3 Data 49 1.3 Organisation of the Thesis 57 2. Consistent Coalition Formation in Uganda 59 2.1 Introduction 59 2.1.1 Political Parties and the Logic of Coalition Formation in Uganda 61 2.2 Coalitions Under the Movement System (1996-2005) 76 2.2.1 The 1996 Election and the IPFC Coalition 76 2.2.2 Kizza Besigye and the 2001 Alliance 79 2.3 Multi-Party Coalitions (2006-2016) 82 2.3.1 The 2006 G6 82 2.3.2 The 2011 Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) 91 2.3.3 The 2016 Democratic Alliance (TDA) Coalition 103 2.4 Constant Coalition Formation, Constant Fragmentation 119 3. Opposition Coordination in Zambia’s Fluid Party System 124 3.1 Introduction 124 3.1.1 Political Parties and the Logic of Coalition Formation in Zambia 128 3.2 Multi-Party Coalitions – 2001-2016 135 3.2.1 Fragmentation and Realignment in 2001 135 3.2.2 The United Democratic Alliance and the 2006 elections 144 3.2.3 The 2008 Presidential By-Election 155 3.2.4 The PF-UPND Pact from 2009-2011 157 3.2.5 Informal Alliances and Political Realignment – The 2015 By-Election 165 3.2.6 Consolidating the Playing Field in 2016 178 3.3 From Coalitions to Elite Inclusion 186 1 4. Opposition Coordination in Zimbabwe’s Polarised Party System 190 4.1 Introduction 190 4.1.1 Political Parties and the Logic of Coalition Formation in Zimbabwe 192 4.2 Multi-Party Coalitions – 2000-2016 202 4.2.1 Mooted Coalitions for the 2000 Election 205 4.2.2 Coalition Negotiations Ahead of the 2008 Election 218 4.2.3 The Failed 2013 Coalition 233 4.2.4 Looking Ahead to 2018 243 4.3 From Polarisation to Cooperation 250 5. Conclusions 254 5.1 Comparing Opposition Coalitions 254 5.1.1 Bringing Parties Back In 257 5.1.2 Coalitions and the Political Salience of Ethnicity 261 5.1.3 On Funding and Coalitions 265 5.1.4 The Ambiguous Role of Party Presidents 266 5.2 The Politics of Coalitions 268 5.3 Beyond Opposition Coalitions 270 Bibliography 272 Appendix I 302 List of Interviews conducted 302 2 List of Figures and Tables Figures Figure 1 The 2006 Ugandan Presidential Election Results by District 88 Figure 2 The 2006 Ugandan Presidential Election Results for the NRM (yellow), FDC (blue), DP (green) and UPC (maroon) in order of declining vote share 90 Figure 3 The 2011 Ugandan Presidential Election Results by District 100 Figure 4 The 2011 Ugandan Presidential Election Results for the NRM (yellow), FDC (blue), DP (green) and UPC (maroon) in order of declining vote share 102 Figure 5 The 2016 Ugandan Presidential Election Results by District 117 Figure 6 The 2016 Ugandan Presidential Election Results for the NRM (yellow), FDC (blue), DP (green) and TDA-U-Go Forward (burnt orange) in order of declining vote share 118 Figure 7 The 2001 Zambian Presidential Election Results by Constituency 141 Figure 8 The 2001 Zambian Presidential Election Results for MMD (blue), UPND (red), UNIP (orange), FDD (yellow) and PF (green) in order of declining vote share 143 Figure 9 The 2006 Zambian Presidential Election Results by Constituency 153 Figure 10 The 2006 Zambian Presidential Election Results of MMD (blue), PF (green) and UDA (red) in order of declining vote share 154 Figure 11 The 2011 Zambian Presidential Election Results by Constituency (both plurality and majority) 163 Figure 12 The 2011 Zambian Presidential Election Results of PF (green), MMD (blue) and UPND (red) in order of declining vote share 164 Figure 13 The 2015 Zambian Presidential By-Election Results by Constituency 176 Figure 14 The 2015 Zambian Presidential By-Election Results of PF (green) and UPND (red) in order of declining vote share 177 Figure 15 The 2016 Zambian Presidential Election Results by Constituency 184 Figure 16 The 2016 Zambian Presidential Election Results of PF (green) and UPND (red) in order of declining vote share 185 Figure 17 The 2000 Zimbabwean Parliamentary Election Results by Constituency 207 Figure 18 The 2002 Zimbabwean Presidential Election Results by Constituency 208 Figure 19 The 2005 Zimbabwean Parliamentary Election Results by Constituency 215 Figure 20 The 2008 Zimbabwean Presidential Election Results by Constituency 231 Figure 21 The 2008 Zimbabwean Presidential Election Results for MDC (red), ZANU-PF (green), MKD (yellow) in order of declining vote share 232 Figure 22 The 2013 Zimbabwean Presidential Election Results by Constituency 241 Figure 23 The 2013 Zimbabwean Presidential Election Results for ZANU-PF (green), MDC-T (red), MDC-N (yellow) in order of declining vote share 242 3 Tables Table 1 The size and location of Ugandan ethnic groups 69 Table 2 Conflicts and Insurgencies in Museveni's Uganda, 1986-2006 73 Table 3 The Geographic Spread of Parliamentary Candidates fronted by the FDC, DP, and UPC 121 Table 4 New Party Leaders and Electoral Coalitions in Uganda, 1996-2016 122 Table 5 New Party Leaders and Electoral Coalitions in Zambia, 2001-2016 188 Table 6 Official Results from the 2008 Zimbabwean Parliamentary Election 228 Table 7 Official Results from the 2013Zimbabwean Parliamentary Election (Directly Elected Seats) 239 Table 8 New Party Leaders and Electoral Coalitions in Zimbabwe, 2000-2018 252 4 Acknowledgements This doctoral thesis would not have been possible without a veritable city of people who held me up, housed me and forced me to push my own boundaries over the more than four years that I spent on this project. For those who provided intellectual guidance, the obvious first messages of thanks must go to my two supervisors, Professors Gabrielle Lynch and David Anderson. Dave provided an endless stream of insight, experience and encouragement that helped me to navigate the pitfalls of research and see a space for myself within the academy. Similarly, Gabrielle provided the necessary reassurance and gentle prodding when the words wouldn’t come, and she was an eagle-eyed editor and kind critic when they did. Without her, this thesis would not have been written. I will always be grateful to both Gabrielle and Dave for their wisdom, support and encouragement, especially when my life interfered with my studies. Financial support for my research came from a variety of sources, but primarily from the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission (CSC), without which my doctoral studies would not have been possible. I was also fortunate enough to receive small grants from the Gilchrist Educational Trust, the British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA), and both the Department of Politics and International Studies (PAIS) and the Department of History at Warwick. These small grants went a long way towards making my research possible, helping to fund the many flights needed to cross a notoriously-expensive continent. At the end of my PhD, I was lucky enough to spend three months at the UNU-WIDER in Helsinki, and the feedback I received there was extremely helpful to the development of my argument. Finally, the material support that I received from friends who have become family – such as Mark and Gaye Prior in Harare – was also inestimable, and my research in Zimbabwe would have been impossible without it. On the taxing intellectual and emotional journey of this PhD, I was lucky to be supported by many people. As an informal supervisor and friend, Nic Cheeseman was invaluable, helping me with information, advice, analysis and support along the way. Marja Hinfelaar gave me the tools that I needed to navigate a complex new set of research topics in a country that I hardly knew, she answered all my questions with patience and she became a friend as well as a mentor. Miles Tendi and Phillan Zamchiya were kind and helpful, and helped me to crack open the door to understanding the complexity of Zimbabwe’s politics. Several people read drafts of this thesis and provided invaluable feedback which only strengthened my arguments; I can’t express enough gratitude to Marja Hinfelaar, Sam Wilkins, Sishuwa Sishuwa, Alastair Fraser, Michael Wahman and Brian Raftopoulos. People such as Michaela Collord, Sebabatso Manoeli, Dan Paget, Sam Wilkins, and Eloise Bertrand were indispensable friends, joining me on the path that I was treading and helping me to get up when I fell. I couldn’t have completed this research without the support and friendship of Vanya Bhargav, and I’m so grateful that we managed to finish this journey together.
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