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To w a r d s Re s o l u t i o n : China in the Myanmar Issue Xiaolin Guo SILK ROAD PAPER March 2007 Towards Resolution: China in the Myanmar Issue Xiaolin Guo © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Uppsala University, Box 514, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org "Towards Resolution: China in the Myanmar Issue" is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Silk Road Paper series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, published jointly on topical and timely subjects. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of Eurasian Studies of Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy- watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars, it wishes to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2007 ISBN: 91-85473-34-0 Printed in Sweden Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University Box 514, SE-75120 Uppsala Sweden Tel. +46-18-471-2217; Fax. +46-18-106397 E-mail: info@silkroadstudies Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above (preferably by e-mail). Sponsor of this publication The Swedish Foreign Ministry Table of Contents Map....................................................................................................................... 7 Abbreviations....................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 9 Introduction .........................................................................................................11 I. Myanmar: The Country and its Problems.................................................... 13 Territory and Population.............................................................................. 13 Decades of Turmoil....................................................................................... 15 Reconciliation Inside and Outside...............................................................22 II. Neighborly Relations: Past and Present.......................................................30 The Old Frontier ...........................................................................................30 In the Name of Peaceful Co-existence........................................................32 Regime Change through Revolution ...........................................................37 Face-Off..........................................................................................................41 Revolution Failed.......................................................................................... 44 Normalization of Relations......................................................................... 47 III. Cross-Border Cooperation: Business and Security....................................50 The New Frontier .........................................................................................50 Going West as a Development Policy ........................................................ 51 Economic Cooperation..................................................................................55 Border Security............................................................................................. 60 IV. The Issue of Myanmar: Rights and Wrongs ............................................ 67 Sanctions as a Principle ............................................................................... 67 Response to Sanctions...................................................................................71 Alternative View ..........................................................................................74 Between Good and Evil................................................................................78 Conclusion...........................................................................................................81 Appendix....................................................................................................... 84 About the Author..........................................................................................90 Map © Xiaolin Guo 2007 8 Abbreviations AFPFL Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League BCIM Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic cooperation BIA Burma Independence Army BNA Burma National Army (formerly BIA) BSPP Burman Socialist Program Party CCP Chinese Communist Party CPB Communist Party of Burma CPSU Communist Party of Soviet Union GMS Greater Mekong Sub-region development scheme KMT Kuomintang, or Chinese Nationalist Party LDP League for Democracy and Peace NEC North-East Command NLD National League for Democracy PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China SLORC State Law and Order Restoration Council SPDC State Peace and Development Council Xiaolin Guo 9 Executive Summary The issue of Myanmar has been in the limelight of international affairs for almost two decades now. Economic sanctions and political isolation have consistently been the principal policies of the international community in dealing with the incumbent government in Myanmar. Despite the mounting pressure, the country’s military rulers have so far chosen to defy the international outcry, and as a result, a political stalemate has persisted, while the population of the country continues to struggle to make ends meet. Twenty years after 1987, Myanmar remains on the UN list of the world’s Least Developed Countries. Yet, the government that stole the country’s election is still in power. The impasse itself now becomes a problem, and the practice, if not the concept, of intervention is open to scrutiny. Whatever problems Myanmar has today and however severe they may be, they did not just spring up overnight after the military took power — the country’s history, beleaguered by violence and turmoil in the past two centuries, tells us that. Recounting the country’s struggle for independence and the political upheavals in the decades that followed allows us to gain insights into the nature of the problems with which the country is grappling today. Accountable for the problems that presently hinder the democratic process in Myanmar is a combination of colonial legacy, multi-ethnicity, a wide range of political interests across communities and, above all, a lack of national identity that bonds the country together. Without the necessary step of state building and a process of national reconciliation from within, a host of political, economic, and ethnic problems cannot be solved. In regard to the issue of Myanmar, China has all along spoken with a different voice. The difference is rooted in regional identity and shared views of history and development. Like many Asian countries, China has had peaceful as well as troubled relations with Myanmar. The export of Mao’s revolution and fervent support for ‘a people’s war’ to bring about regime change in neighboring countries and beyond during the most radical period of China’s modern history bears a striking resemblance to international 10 developments unfolding on the Indo-China Peninsula and elsewhere in the world today. China’s current foreign policy and, in particular, China’s stance on the issue of Myanmar, reflects lessons that China has drawn from its own experience in the past. Economic reform that prospered and served to stabilize China in the post-Mao era is now making its way to neighboring Myanmar. This cross-border development (in part joined by ASEAN) has brought significant changes to the war-torn country of Myanmar; and more coordinated efforts from the international community along the same lines would certainly benefit the country and its people in a meaningful way. Intention and sincerity are crucial in the search for solutions, as indeed the Six-Party Talks on North Korea demonstrate. Introduction Early in September 2006, the ambassador of the United States to the UN called on the Security Council to put the issue of Myanmar on its agenda. China and Russia, together with Qatar and Congo (Republic), opposed the proposition, with Tanzania abstaining. In January 2007, a UN draft resolution calling on the Myanmar government to stop its persecution of opposition groups was finally put to a vote. China and Russia vetoed and South Africa opposed
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