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Direct and Indirect Drivers of Change in Biodiversity and Nature’S Contributions to People 1 CHAPTER 4. DIRECT AND INDIRECT DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN BIODIVERSITY AND NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEOPLE 1 CHAPTER CHAPTER 4 2 DIRECT AND INDIRECT DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN BIODIVERSITY AND NATURE’S CHAPTER CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEOPLE 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Review Editors: Mercedes Bustamante (Brazil), Eileen H. Pedro Laterra (Argentina), Carlos Eduardo CHAPTER Helmer (USA), Steven Schill (USA) Young (Brazil) Lead Authors: This chapter should be cited as: Jayne Belnap (USA), Laura K. Brown 4 Bustamante, M., Helmer, E. H., Schill, S., (Canada), Ernesto Brugnoli (Uruguay), Jana Belnap, J., Brown, L. K., Brugnoli, E., E. Compton (USA), Richard H. Coupe (USA), Compton, J. E., Coupe, R. H., Hernández- Marcello Hernández-Blanco (Costa Rica), Blanco, M., Isbell, F., Lockwood, J., Forest Isbell (USA), Julie Lockwood (USA), Lozoya Ascárate, J. P., McGuire, D., CHAPTER Juan Pablo Lozoya Azcárate (Uruguay), David Pauchard, A., Pichs-Madruga, R., McGuire (USA), Anibal Pauchard (Chile), Rodrigues, R. R., Sanchez- Azofeifa, G. A., Ramon Pichs-Madruga (Cuba), Ricardo Soutullo, A., Suarez, A., Troutt, E., and Ribeiro Rodrigues (Brazil), Gerardo Arturo Thompson, L. Chapter 4: Direct and indirect Sanchez-Azofeifa (Costa Rica/Canada), 5 drivers of change in biodiversity and nature’s Alvaro Soutullo (Uruguay), Avelino Suarez contributions to people. In IPBES (2018): 4(Cuba), Elizabeth Troutt (Canada) The IPBES regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services Fellow: for the Americas. Rice, J., Seixas, C. S., CHAPTER Laura Thompson (USA). Zaccagnini, M. E., Bedoya-Gaitán, M., and Valderrama, N. (eds.). Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Contributing Authors: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Robin Abell (USA), Lorenzo Alvarez- 6 Germany, pp. 295-435. Filip (Mexico), Christopher B. Anderson (Argentina/USA), Adriana De Palma (UK), Arturo Dominici (Panama), Javier Godar (Spain), Gladys Hernandez (Cuba), Myanna CHAPTER Lahsen (Brazil), Marília Cunha-Lignon (Brazil), Frank Muller-Karger (USA), Laura Nahuelhual (Chile), Judith A. Perlinger (USA), Helder Lima Queiroz (Brazil), Carla R. G. Reis (Brazil), Carmen Revenga (USA), Jeremy Rude (USA), Dalia Salabarria (Cuba), Jennifer J. Swenson (USA), Noel R. Urban (USA) 295 THE REGIONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FOR THE AMERICAS TABLE OF CONTENTS 4.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................... .300 4.2 INTRODUCTION .......................................................... .303 4.3 INDIRECT ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS .................................... .305 4.3.1 Governance systems and institutions (formal and informal). .306 4.3.2 Economic growth .................................................312 4.3.3 International trade and finances ......................................316 4.3.4 Technological development .........................................318 4.3.5 Population and demographic trends ...................................320 4.3.6 Human development ..............................................321 4.4 DIRECT ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS ....................................... 324 4.4.1 Habitat degradation and restoration ..................................324 Nature of the driver, its recent status and trends, and what influences its intensity. 324 North America ................................................328 Mesoamerica. 330 Caribbean ...................................................332 South America. .332 4.4.2 Pollution and related changes in biogeochemical cycles ...................336 Nature of the driver, its recent status, and trends and what influences its intensity. 336 Ocean acidification, deoxygenation and plastics pollution. 336 Fertilization of Earth with nitrogen, phosphorus and other nutrients from human activities. ..........................................338 Toxicants ....................................................340 North America ................................................341 Mesoamerica. 343 Caribbean ...................................................344 South America. .344 4.4.3 Climate Change ..................................................348 Nature of the driver, its recent status and trends, and what influences its intensity. 348 Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems ..............................351 Marine ecosystems ............................................351 North America ................................................352 Mesoamerica. 354 Caribbean ...................................................355 South America. .355 Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies ...................358 4.4.4 Biological Invasions ...............................................358 Nature of the driver, its recent status and trend, and factors that influence its intensity ...........................................358 Invasive alien species as drivers and passengers of global change .........360 North America ................................................360 Mesoamerica and the Caribbean ..................................362 South America. .363 4.4.5 Overexploitation ..................................................365 Nature of the driver, its recent status and trend, and factors that influence its intensity ...........................................365 Terrestrial. .366 Freshwater resources. 367 Freshwater species ............................................367 296 CHAPTER 4. DIRECT AND INDIRECT DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN BIODIVERSITY AND NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEOPLE Marine ......................................................368 North America ................................................369 Mesoamerica. 369 Caribbean ...................................................370 South America. .371 4.5 DIRECT NATURAL DRIVERS .............................................. .373 Nature of the driver, its recent status, and trends and what influences its intensity. 373 North America ................................................373 Mesoamerica ................................................374 Caribbean ...................................................374 South America. .375 4.6 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIRECT DRIVERS ............................... .375 4.7 EFFECTS OF INDIRECT DRIVERS ON DIRECT DRIVERS ..................... 378 Freshwater and wetland ecosystems as examples of interactions .........380 North America – The Mississippi Basin ..............................381 South America – Río de la Plata Basin ..............................382 Central America and the Caribbean ................................382 The challenge of matching scales: drivers, ecological and social responses ..............................................382 4.8 GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE AND DATA .......................................... 388 4.9 SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL ............................................. .389 REFERENCES ...........................................................395 297 THE REGIONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FOR THE AMERICAS CHAPTER 4 DIRECT AND INDIRECT DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN BIODIVERSITY AND NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEOPLE 4.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY growth and international trade may include a stronger economy and increased employment, and social and 1 The most important indirect anthropogenic environmental investments such as biodiversity protection. drivers of changes in nature, nature’s contributions to Negative impacts of economic growth include unsustainable people and good quality of life include unsustainable conversion, use and exploitation of terrestrial, freshwater patterns of economic growth (including issues related and marine ecosystems and resources, which threaten to international trade and finances); population and biodiversity and degrade nature’s contributions to people by demographic trends; weaknesses in the governance reducing species abundances below self-sustaining levels systems and inequity (well established). Increasing and by disrupting key ecosystem functions {4.6}. The human demand for food, water, and energy caused by Americas generates around 18 per cent of world exports, increases in population, per capita Gross Domestic Product with 70 per cent of this from North America. The Latin and international trade have had negative consequences for American and Caribbean contributions to world exports is nature and many regulating and non-material nature’s 5.4 per cent, and natural resource governance is strongly contributions to people. influenced by having economies dominated by commodity exports. Natural resources (oil, minerals, and agriculture) 2 Social inequity is a concern with adverse contribute more than 50 per cent to these Latin America implications for nature, nature’s contributions to and the Caribbean exports {4.3.3}. Globalization has people and good quality of life (well established). catalyzed rapid growth of international trade and become an When the United Nations Development Program important motor for regional development, but it has also Human Development Index is adjusted for inequality, it disconnected places of production, transformation and is 22 per cent lower in Latin American and Caribbean consumption of land-based products. This decoupling countries and 11.1 per cent lower in North America places significant challenges for socio-environmental {4.3.6}. Seventy-two million people escaped income-poverty governance and regulatory implementation for sectors from 2003-2013 in Latin America; however, around 26.9 per rapidly changing in response to increases in the global cent of the Latin American
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