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The Future of Desalination in the UAE The AGSIW Next Gen Gulf Series Water Worries: The Future of Desalination in the UAE Robert Mogielnicki The AGSIW Next Gen Gulf Series Water Worries: The Future of Desalination in the UAE Robert Mogielnicki March 4, 2020 Issue Paper #1 2020 The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), launched in 2015, is an independent, nonprofit institution dedicated to providing expert research and analysis of the social, economic, and political dimensions of the Gulf Arab states and key neighboring countries and how they affect domestic and foreign policy. AGSIW focuses on issues ranging from politics and security to economics, trade, and business; from social dynamics to civil society and culture. Through programs, publications, and scholarly exchanges the institute seeks to encourage thoughtful debate and inform the U.S. foreign-policy, business, and academic communities regarding this critical geostrategic region. © 2020 Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. All rights reserved. AGSIW does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSIW, its staff, or its board of directors. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from AGSIW. Please direct inquiries to: [email protected] This publication can be downloaded at no cost at www.agsiw.org. Cover Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jon Gambrell The AGSIW Next Gen Gulf Series This paper was developed as part of AGSIW’s Next Gen Gulf series, which explores how the latest trends in technology are shaping the economies and governments of Gulf Arab states. Next Gen Gulf analyzes the implications of digital agendas, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and other tech services and applications for the region, by country and sector, and identifies the associated opportunities and risks of the Gulf's digital transformation. About the Author Robert Mogielnicki is a resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. An expert in the political economy of the Middle East and North Africa, he previously served as a senior analyst with the Siwa Group and head of public relations and marketing for Oxford Strategic Consulting, a United Kingdom/Gulf Cooperation Council-focused research consultancy. Prior to his consulting career, he worked as a journalist covering political and economic developments in post-revolutionary Egypt and Tunisia. His work and commentary on the region have appeared in Axios, Forbes Middle East, Al Jazeera’s Inside Story, MEED, Al Bawaba, The National (UAE), Gulf Daily News, Tunisia Live, Egypt Oil and Gas Magazine, and Egypt Daily News. Mogielnicki received his PhD from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College, where he conducted research in conjunction with the Oriental Institute and Middle East Centre. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, his dissertation examines the political economy of free zones in Gulf Arab countries. He earned his MA in modern Middle Eastern studies from St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and completed a master’s thesis on labor policy formulation and implementation in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. He received his BA from Georgetown University as a double major in Arabic and government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa. Colby Connelly, research associate at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, provided research support for this paper. Robert Mogielnicki | 1 Executive Summary Desalination is a blessing and a curse for the United Arab Emirates. The water-scarce country’s expansive desalination infrastructure provides the water resources needed to sustain life and support a broad range of commercial, agricultural, and industrial activities. Yet the UAE’s dependence on desalination to meet the country’s burgeoning water demand exacts a heavy economic and environmental toll. A continued reliance upon desalination as the primary source of the country’s potable water likewise increases the population’s vulnerability. The potential for disruptions to desalination operations and infrastructure poses a genuine risk to the country’s residents and companies. With few available alternatives for accessing water resources, the UAE is continuing to expand existing desalination facilities and construct new desalination plants. This development has been coupled with government-led efforts to reduce per capita water usage, adopt new desalination technologies, and streamline water and power production through the consolidation of government entities. As the UAE’s desalination system evolves, it is becoming more complex. While the complexity of desalination processes in the UAE increases individual points of vulnerability across the system, the dispersed nature of the system simultaneously reduces the likelihood of a single or limited number of shocks to the system inflicting catastrophic harm on the region’s residents or other consumers. Water Worries: The Future of Desalination in the UAE | 2 *Unknown or not publicly available Sources: Desalination, Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority, Sembcorp, Fujairah Asia Power Company, ACWA Power, ZAWYA, Aquatech, Torishima Robert Mogielnicki | 3 Network of Key UAE Desalination Plants IRAN P e IRAN KUWAIT r si of an ait G Str BAHRAIN ulf uz orm QATAR RAS AL KHAIMAH IWP H 22 MIGD (2020) SAUDI UNITED ARAB ARABIA UMM AL QUWAIN IWP OMAN EMIRATES N 150 MIGD (2021) A G R M e O d AJMAN POWER AND u S e l a DESALINATION PLANT f 30 MIGD o YEMEN Arabian f FUJAIRAH F1 O Sea LAYYAH DESALINATION PLANT 130 MIGD 63.5 MIGD m a Dubai FUJAIRAH F2 n JEBEL ALI M-STATION 130 MIGD 140 MIGD QATAR lf Gu AL TAWEELAH A1 HASSYAN POWER ian 84 MIGD AND DESALINATION PLANT ers 120 MIGD (2023) SHUWEIHAT S1 P 100 MIGD UMM AL NAR IWPP AL TAWEELAH IWP 145 MIGD SHUWEIHAT S2 200 MIGD (2022) 100 MIGD Abu Dhabi OMAN MIRFA IWPP 53 MIGD THE EMIRATES ABU DHABI UNITED ARAB AJMAN EXISTING PLANTS EMIRATES DUBAI FUTURE PLANTS FUJAIRAH (with expected operational date) RAS AL-KHAIMAH Capacity shown in SHARJAH Million Imperial Gallons UMM AL-QUWAIN per Day (MIGD) SAUDI ARABIA 0 100 mi Lucidity Information Design, L.L.C. 0 150 km Water Worries: The Future of Desalination in the UAE | 4 Introduction Water is a deep source of concern for Gulf Arab states like the United Arab Emirates. The country’s seven emirates confront a continuous need for greater access to water resources, which are required for human consumption, agricultural activities, and industrial processes. Water demand in the UAE is expected to grow 30% by 2030.1 However, the country receives less than 100 millimeters per year of rainfall on average, and the groundwater recharge rate is less than 4% of the annual water used by the country. With minimal ground water and precipitation, the Gulf region relies on depleting aquifers, desalination, recycled wastewater, and imports. Desalination is one of the few long-term sources of fresh water able to meet demand from the population and economic activities of the Gulf states. The Middle East and North Africa possesses approximately 55% of global desalination capacity, with the vast majority of desalinated water production taking place in the six Gulf Cooperation Council states.2 The UAE is the second-largest producer of desalinated water in the world after Saudi Arabia, which produces around 1,452 million imperial gallons per day of desalinated water.3 In 2017, the UAE produced nearly 1,193 million imperial gallons per day of desalinated water. The Gulf region also boasts some of the world’s largest desalination plants in terms of output capacity. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair desalination plant, which provides water for Riyadh, is the world’s largest plant. The UAE’s Al Taweelah desalination complex remains under construction; however, it is expected to become the second-largest desalination plant in the world.4 Desalination produces approximately 80% of the total drinking water in GCC states.5 Almost all of the UAE’s potable water – around 42% of the country’s total water requirement – is the product of desalination.6 The UAE’s heavy dependence on desalination poses risks. In particular, the sustainability of desalination activities – in terms of costs and environmental impacts – remains a key concern. However, the UAE is unlikely to drastically reduce desalination operations, given the lack of options to secure water resources. The process is also becoming costlier. Masdar, or the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, had projected that the costs of seawater desalination would increase 300% between 2010 and 2016, leading the renewable energy company to experiment with new, cost-effective desalination technologies.7 Desalinating seawater along the UAE’s coastline requires substantial energy inputs – often natural gas, liquified natural gas, or diesel. If the UAE reduced its dependence upon desalination operations, these energy inputs could be exported or sold domestically. 1 Masdar, Renewable Energy Seawater Desalination (Abu Dhabi: Masdar, 2018). 2 Waleed K. Al-Zubari, “Regional Water Governance and Cooperation in the Arab Region,” Emirates Diplomatic Academy, October 2019. 3 “About: Water Production,” Saline Water Conversion Company, accessed February 12, 2020. 4 "Does Size Matter? Meet the World’s Largest Desalination Plants,” Aquatech, January 15, 2019. 5 The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) General Secretariat, Desalination in the GCC: The History, the Present & the Future (Desalination Experts Group, Water Resources Committee, 2014), 20. 6 “Water: Desalination Plants,” The UAE Government Portal, updated March 19, 2019. 7 Masdar, Renewable Energy Seawater Desalination (Abu Dhabi: Masdar, 2018); Sara Hamdan, “Abu Dhabi Company Searches for Greener Method of Desalination,” The New York Times, January 23, 2020. Robert Mogielnicki | 5 The desalination process also produces brine – a high-salinity byproduct that is often dumped back into the original water source.
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