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UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Wildfires, Floods, And UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics by Thomas William Corringham Committee in charge: Richard Carson, Chair Daniel Cayan, Co-Chair Judson Boomhower Mark Jacobsen Craig McIntosh 2018 Copyright Thomas William Corringham, 2018 All rights reserved. ii The Dissertation of Thomas William Corringham is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Chair University of California San Diego 2018 iii DEDICATION To my parents. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page .......................................................................................................................... iii Dedication.................................................................................................................................. iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ v List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................viii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. ix Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... x Vita ............................................................................................................................................ xi Abstract of the Dissertation ....................................................................................................... xii Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management: A Decision Calendar Study .......................................................................................................................................... 1 The Effect of El Niño on Flood Damages in the Western United States ....................................... 9 Atmospheric Rivers Drive Flood Damages in the Western United States ................................... 42 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AR Atmospheric River BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis BLM Bureau of Land Management CCA Canonical Correlation Analysis CEFA Program for Climate, Ecosystem, and Fire Applications ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function ESA Endangered Species Act FWS Fish and Wildlife Service GACC Geographic Area Coordination Centers GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System IVT Integrated Vapor Transport IWV Integrated Water Vapor MEI Multivariate ENSO Index NICC National Interagency Coordinating Center NFIC National Interagency Fire Center NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NPS National Parks Service NWCG National Wildfire Coordinating Group NWS National Weather Service ONDJFM October, November, December, January, February, March vi PC Principal Component PCA Principal Components Analysis PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation RISA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment SIO Scripps Institution of Oceanography SST Sea Surface Temperature USDOI US Department of the Interior VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Federally managed land in the Western United States ................................................ 2 Figure 1.2: Wildland fire management organizational flow chart ................................................. 3 Figure 1.3: Aggregated decision calendars .................................................................................. 4 Figure 2.1: NFIP insured losses, NWS reported losses 1983-2003 western 11 states.................. 18 Figure 2.2: Spatial distribution of insured losses; losses per coverage ........................................ 21 Figure 2.3: Daily time series of insured losses, 11 western states, 1978-2007 ............................ 22 Figure 2.4: Regional seasonality of flood losses: month of year with maximum losses .............. 27 Figure 2.5: PCA: cool season log losses per coverage over one-half degree grid........................ 30 Figure 2.6: ENSO composites, mean ONDJFM monthly losses per $100,000 of coverage ........ 32 Figure 2.7: Leading MEI values versus losses per coverage by region ....................................... 34 Figure 3.1: NFIP payments versus NWS damages ..................................................................... 46 Figure 3.2: Proportion of insured losses due to AR events ......................................................... 53 Figure 3.3: Time series of claims versus AR activity by latitude band, 1995/96 and 1997/98 ..... 57 Figure 3.4: Time course of insured losses .................................................................................. 58 Figure 3.5: Top loss days AR versus non-AR ............................................................................ 61 Figure 3.6: Affected counties matched to crossing latitude ........................................................ 62 Figure 3.7: Spatial composites and orientation of AR wind field ............................................... 64 Figure 3.8: Canonical Correlation Analysis ............................................................................... 68 Figure 3.9: Probability and Loss by IVT exceedances and antecedent soil moisture................... 79 Figure 3.10: Affected counties associated with AR landfall at nine latitude bands ..................... 85 Figure 3.11 Full set of spatial composites and orientation of AR wind field............................... 87 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Most affected counties: real insured losses; losses per coverage ................................ 20 Table 2.2: Flood events with real insured losses in excess of $10m ........................................... 25 Table 3.1: Average ONDJFM claims and losses per grid-cell-day ............................................. 50 Table 3.2: Average insured loss by ONDJFM day by latitude band by AR intensity .................. 51 Table 3.3: Proportion of losses caused by AR events by top counties ........................................ 55 Table 3.4: Most damaging AR events (insured losses over $20m) ............................................. 59 Table 3.5: Full regression results ............................................................................................... 73 Table 3.6: Reduction of model to parsimonious model .............................................................. 74 Table 3.7: Parsimonious model results ...................................................................................... 74 Table 3.8: Regression results by latitude band ........................................................................... 86 ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge my chair Richard Carson, my co-chair Dan Cayan, my committee members, and my co-authors, and an NSF IGERT fellowship for funding part of my graduate studies. Chapter 1, in full, is a reprint of the material as it appears in Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management: A Decision Calendar Study, 2008. Corringham, Thomas W.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Morehouse, Barbara J., Journal of Forestry, 106(2): 71-77. Tom Corringham was the primary investigator and author of this paper. Chapter 2, in full, is currently being prepared for submission for publication of the material. Corringham, Thomas W.; Cayan, Daniel R. Tom Corringham was the primary investigator and author of this material. Chapter 3, in full, is currently being prepared for submission for publication of the material. Corringham, Thomas W.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R. Tom Corringham was the primary investigator and author of this material. x VITA EDUCATION 2018 Doctor of Philosophy, Economics, University of California San Diego 2010 MA (Oxon.), Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Oxford 2000 BA (Hons.), Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Oxford AWARDS NSF IGERT Fellow, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) 2003 – 2004 National Merit Scholar 1996 – 2000 EMPLOYMENT Graduate Student Researcher: SIO Climate Research Division, 2002 – 2009 Lecturer: UCSD Department of Economics, 2007 – 2008 Teaching Assistant: UCSD Department of Economics, 2002 – 2008 FIELDS OF STUDY Major Fields: Environmental Economics and Applied Climatology xi ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability by Thomas William Corringham Doctor of Philosophy in Economics University of California San Diego 2018 Richard Carson, Chair Daniel Cayan, Co-Chair The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. xii The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to
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