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Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate

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Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate Report DSO-2013-02 Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate Dam Safety Technology Development Program U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Technical Service Center Denver, Colorado September 2013 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE 09-30-2013 2. REPORT TYPE Research 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Godaire, J., J. Caldwell, N. Novembre, T. Harden, V. Sankovich 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT US Bureau of Reclamation NUMBER P.O. Box 25007 Denver Federal Center DSO-2013-02 Denver, CO 80225 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S) Bureau of Reclamation, Dam Safety Office 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT P.O. Box 25007 NUMBER(S) DSO-2013-02 Denver, CO 80225 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Available from National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE 14. ABSTRACT This study explored the potential connection between extreme floods, streamflow and climate change. The analyses concluded that relationships do exist between records of fluvial deposition and shifts in climate in that less fluvial deposition (or lower streamflow) is occurring during periods of drier climate and more fluvial deposition (or higher streamflow) is occurring during periods of wetter climate in the Sierra Nevada of central California. This relationship can be defined on a broad scale for about the last 1,000 years. Paleofloods that have been documented along rivers in the Sierra Nevada appear to fall within both dry and wet periods in the paleoclimate record. Paleofloods that have been documented in the southwestern U.S. in the Colorado River Basin appear to occur within specific wet or dry periods, depending on the geographic location. 15. SUBJECT TERMS climate change, floods, paleofloods, hydroclimatology, meteorology, paleoclimate, hydrology 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Jeanne Godaire None a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT a. THIS PAGE 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 303-445-3164 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Report DSO-2013-02 Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate Dam Safety Technology Development Program Prepared by: Jeanne Godaire Jason Caldwell Nicole Novembre Tessa Harden Victoria Sankovich U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Technical Service Center Denver, Colorado September 2013 MISSION STATEMENTS The U.S. Department of the Interior protects America’s natural resources and heritage, honors our cultures and tribal communities, and supplies the energy to power our future. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION Dam Safety Technology Development Program Seismotectonics and Geophysics Group, 86-68330 DS0-2013-02 Extreme Floods in a Changing Climate '1/.23/ tJt>/,3 p(Jbared by: Jeanne E. Godaire, M.S. Date Geomorphologist, Seismotectonics and Geophysics Group, 86-68330 1/2-'i/7o/?:, Prepared by: Nicole Novembre, P.E., M.S. Date Hydraulic Engineer, Flood Hydrology and Consequences Group, 86-68250 Pr;pareJby: Tessa Harden, Ph.D. Geomorphologist, Seismotectonics and Geophysics Group, 86-68330 frepared-eiy: Victbria Sankovich, M.S. Date Meteorologist, Flood Hydrology and Consequences Group, 86-68250 j/1 . ?:i~r;(Jr; Peer relf1~w: Ralph E. Klinge~: 1;,h.D. Date Quaternary Geologist, Seismotectonics and Geophysics Group, 86-68330 REVISIONS Date Description Prepared Checked Technical approval Peer review X 3/2013 Draft Report X 4/2013 Draft Report 9/2013 Final Report X CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 7 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 8 1.1 STUDY GOALS ...................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 REPORT ORGANIZATION ...................................................................................................... 10 2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 11 2.1 PALEOFLOOD DATA ............................................................................................................ 11 2.2 PALEOFLOOD DATABASE ...................................................................................................... 14 3 CASE STUDY 1: CALIFORNIA ........................................................................................... 20 3.1 EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND RELATED FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA .............................................. 20 3.1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 23 3.1.2 Atmospheric Rivers ................................................................................................... 26 3.1.3 El Niño /Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ........................................................................ 30 3.1.4 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ............................................................................. 36 3.1.5 Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) .............................................................................. 37 3.1.6 Paleoreconstruction of Climate Signals .................................................................... 41 3.1.7 Trends, Climate Change, and ARs ............................................................................. 42 3.1.8 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................ 46 3.2 HYDROLOGY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION .......................................................................... 47 3.2.1 Envelope curve data ................................................................................................. 50 3.2.2 Regional flood frequency analysis ............................................................................ 55 3.3 CALIFORNIA REGIONAL RADIOCARBON DATA COMPILATION AND ANALYSIS ..................................... 71 3.4 PALEOCLIMATE DATA COMPARISONS WITH RADIOCARBON AGES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION AND OTHER SELECTED REGIONS ................................................................................................................. 79 3.4.1 Climate change model scenarios and implications for extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada region ....................................................................................................................... 88 3.5 SYNTHESIS OF DATA, SIERRA NEVADA REGION ......................................................................... 90 4 CASE STUDY2: COLORADO RIVER BASIN ......................................................................... 93 4.1 THE MOAB MILL PROJECT: PALEOFLOODS IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER NEAR MOAB, UTAH, MAY 2006 (GREENBAUM ET AL. 2006) ..................................................................................................... 93 4.2 DOLORES RIVER BASIN: EXTREME FLOODS IN THE DOLORES RIVER BASIN, COLORADO AND UTAH: INSIGHTS FROM PALEOFLOODS, GEOCHRONOLOGY AND HYDROCLIMATIC ANALYSIS (CLINE, 2010) .................. 95 4.3 GREEN RIVER BASIN: RECONNAISSANCE AND IDENTIFICATION OF SUITABLE SITES FOR PALEOFLOOD ANALYSIS 99 5 PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................... 100 5.1 RECOMMENDATION FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ........................................................................ 101 6 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 102 i ATTACHMENT A: FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES ...................................................................... 111 ATTACHMENT B: CALIBRATED RADIOCARBON AGES ............................................................. 129 ATTACHMENT C: RADIOCARBON DATA ................................................................................ 139 List of Tables Table Page Table 2-1. Fields in the paleoflood database. ....................................................... 17 Table 3-1. R-square values between different parameters and the maximum precipitation in the Sierra
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