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2010 Southern Nevada Economic Briefing

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2010 Southern Nevada Economic Briefing 2010 Southern Nevada Economic Briefing Legislative Subcommittee on Logistics January 25th, 2010 www.rcg1.com EXHIBIT N - LOGISTICS Meeting Date: January 25, 2010 Document consists of 26 slides. Entire Exhibit Provided. The National Economy Some Important National Indicators ¾ Recession started 12/07: 25 months ago (through 01/10) ¾ National GDP Growth (Q2, 2009 – Q3,2009): +2.2% ¾ ISM Manufacturing Index (12/08 – 12/09): +70% (55.9) ¾ Consumer Conf. Index (12/08 - 12/09): +37% (52.9) ¾ Personal Savings Rate (11/08 - 11/09): +24% (4.7%) 3 NevadaNevada && ClarkClark CountyCounty EconomiesEconomies 4 THE DRIVER: THE RESORT INDUSTRY Resort Industry Investment: Will They Come? Projects’ Cost ($B) by Scheduled Completion Year: 2009 – 2010, Initiated & Undetermined $14.5 B (currently under construction) Sample Projects: $20 12,200 additional rooms aloft Las Vegas Charlie Palmer Plaza Hotel $15 Las Palmas Sample Projects: Sands Expo* City Center Sample Projects: $10 So. Highlands Planet Hollywood* Echelon Casino Hard Rock* Caesars Palace* Viva Golden Nugget* Fontainebleau Symphony Park $5 Sample Project: Wynn Resorts* Cosmopolitan Projects' Cost ($ in Billions) in ($ Cost Projects' $11.61$3.93 $9.89 $20.55 $0 Partial Partial Partial Partial 2009 (15 projects) 2010 (8 projects) Initiated** (5 Undetermined** projects) (36 projects) 6 *Expansion/Redevelopment **Initiated or proposed projects with opening dates to be determined. Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (as of 11/4/2009). Las Vegas Valley Visitor Volume: 11/2008 –11/2009 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 Visitor Volume Visitors % Ch. Y-o-Y 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 Nov. 2008 – Nov. 2009: +2.9% 7 Nov'08 Dec'-08 Jan'-09 Feb'-09 Mar'-09 Apr'-09 May'-09 6% 4% Jun'-09 2% Jul'-09 0% -2% Aug'-09 -4% Sep'-09 -6% -8% Sources: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Oct'-09 -10% Nov'-09 -12% -14% Year-over-Year Growth McCarran Annual Passengers: 1990 – 2008, & 2009 YTD (Nov) 55 50 45 Sustainable Capacity (post expansion): 53 Million 40 8.9M above the 44.1M passengers recorded in 2008) 35 Ivanpah has been delayed from 2017 to 2019 30 25 20 15 Passengers (in Millions) 10 5 19.1 0 20.2 20.9 1990 22.5 26.9 8 1991 28.0 30.5 1992 30.3 1993 30.2 1994 33.7 36.9 1995 1996 35.2 1997 35.0 36.3 41.4 1998 44.3 1999 46.2 47.7 2000 2001 44.1 2002 2003 37.4 Source: McCarran International Airport;2004 Deutsche Bank. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD Clark County Gross Gaming Revenue: 11/2008 –11/2009 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000 $600,000,000 GGR $400,000,000 % Ch. Y-o-Y Gross Gaming Revenue $200,000,000 Nov. 2008 – Nov. 2009: +6.9% First increase since June 2008 $0 9 Nov'08 Dec'-08 Jan'-09 Feb'-09 Mar'-09 Apr'-09 10% May'-09 5% Jun'-09 0% Jul'-09 Aug'-09 -5% Sep'-09 -10% Sources: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Oct'-09 -15% Nov'-09 -20% Year-over-Year Growth THE JOB MARKET Clark County, Nevada & U.S. Job Growth: 11/1991 – 11/2009 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Year-over-Year-2% Growth -4% -6% -8% Nov-91 Clark County 11 Nov-92 Nevada U.S. Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 The Storm Starts-12/07 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nov-09 Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators: 12/1995 – 12/2009 135 Dec. 2009 = 125.5 (Jan 1980 = 100) 130 125 Value 120 115 Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 12 Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research. Clark County Job Growth: Total 11/1991 – 11/2009 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Year-over-Year-10% Growth -15% Nonfarm & Industrial-Related* -20% Nov-91 13 Nov-92 Nov-93 *Industrial-relatedN industriesov-94 include Nov-95 Total Nonfarm Nov-96 Industrial-related Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Construction, Manufacturing,Nov-00 Transpor Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 t. & Warehousing anNov-07 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Nov-08 Nov-09 d Wholesale Trade Clark County Employment: Total 1990 – 2009 Estimates 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 % Share of Industrial-related to Total: 18% 500,000 Employment400,000 300,000 Nonfarm & Industrial-Related* 200,000 Industrial-related:Total Nonfarm: 157,692 865,433 100,000 0 14 2009E 1990 1991 *Industrial-related industries1992 include 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Construction, Manufacturing,2000 Transpor 30% 2001 2002 25% 2003 20% 2004 2005 15% 2006 10% 2007 t. & Warehousing an 2008 5% 2009E 0% Sources: Nevada DETR. % share of Induststrial-related to Total d Wholesale Trade Clark County, Nevada & U.S. Unemployment Rates: 11/2000 – 11/2009 14% Nov. 2009 Clark County = 12.1% Nevada = 12.3% 12% U.S. = 10.0% 10% 8% 6% Unemployment Rate (%) Rate Unemployment 4% 2% Nov'-00 Nov'-01 Nov'-02 Nov'-03 Nov'-04 Nov'-05 Nov'-06 Nov'-07 Nov'-08 Nov'-09 15 Source: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. TAXABLE RETAIL SALES Clark County & Nevada Taxable Sales 10/2005 – 10/2009 $5.5 Oct. 2009 growth over Oct. 2008 Nevada Nevada = -17.8% Clark County $5.0 Clark County = -19.0% $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 Taxable Sales ($ in Billions) $2.5 $2.0 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 17 Sources: Nevada Department of Taxation. THE DEMOGRAPHICS 1990 – 2008 Estimates&2009– 2013 Projections Clark CountyPopulation: 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 500,000 19 0 1990 770,300 1991 835,100 1992 873,700 1993 916,800 Note: Clark County Comprehensive 1994 990,600 1995 1,055,400 1990 – 2008CAGR: 1996 1,119,100 1997 1,193,400 1998 1,261,200 5.3% 1999 1,327,100 2000 1,394,400 2001 1,485,900 Planning Department 2009 Planning 2002 1,549,700 2003 1,620,700 2004 1,715,300 2005 1,796,400 Source: NevadaSt 2006 1,874,800 2007 1,954,300 2009 – 2013CAGR: prelim. estimate = 2,006,347. prelim. estimate 2008 1,967,700 2009P 1,987,337 2010P 2,008,951 1.2% ate Demographer. 2011P 2,031,700 2012P 2,055,900 2013P 2,081,700 Clark County Median Family Income Reported vs. Inflation-Adjusted (in 1995 $): Q3, 1995 – Q3, 2009 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 Reported $45,000 Adjusted (in 1995 $) Median$40,000 Family Income $35,000 $30,000 $41,100 20 Q3'95 Q3'96 The look of wage stagnation Q3'97 Q3'98 Q3'99 $65,400 Q3'00 Q3'01 Q3'02 Q3'03 Q3'04 $46,300 Q3'05 Source: National Associat Q3'06 Q3'07 Q3'08 Q3'09 ion of Home Builders. COMMERCIALCOMMERCIAL MARKETMARKET 21 Las Vegas Valley Industrial Market Vacancy, Absorption & Completion Trends: Q4, 06 – Q4, 09 2.5 Absorption 18% Completions 16% 2.0 Vacancy ) 14% 1.5 12% 1.0 10% 0.5 8% 0.0 % Vacant 6% -0.5 Square FeetSquare (in Millions 4% -1.0 2% -1.5 0% Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 22 Source: Restrepo Consulting Group. Years of Industrial Supply until Stabilized Rate (Based on Existing Vacant & Under-Construction space, & 10-year Average Absorption) 17,500,000 16,399,900 Years of supply will 15,000,000 constrain lending on 12,500,000 new projects 10,000,000 Vacant Space Under Construction 7,500,000 10-Yr Avg. Absorp. Square Feet Square 5,000,000 2,500,000 370,600 736,900 0 Industrial Market (2.1 Years of Supply) 23 Source: Restrepo Consulting Group. CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION 24 In Conclusion THE NEW REALITY ¾ Really bad, but NOT a depression ¾ Southern Nevada recovery will lag national recovery ¾ Flat will be the new “up” cycle once recovery start ¾ The other dropping shoes: commercial r.e. & personal credit cards, impact on Southern Nevada? WHAT KIND OF RECESSION? ¾ Consumer weakness to continue into 2011 ¾ Start of sustained economic recovery sometime in 2011? ¾ Start of sustained local housing recovery in 2012? 25 Source: Adapted from Chris Thornberg. Contact: John Restrepo 702-967-3188 [email protected] www.rcg1.com.
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