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ISSN 0975-086X THE JOURNAL OF CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES Volume: XX 2011 No. 1 CENTRE OF CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF KASHMIR SRINAGAR-190006 J&K, INDIA EDITORIAL BOARD Prof. Riyaz Punjabi Prof. Valdimir Boyko Formerly Vice Chancellor Centre for Regional Studies, Russia & University of Kashmir Central Asia, Srinagar Barnaul State Pedagogical University Barnaul, Russia Prof. Gregory Gleason Department of Pol. Science Prof. Valeiry Khan University of New Mexico Institute of History USA Academy of Sciences Tashkent, Uzbekistan Prof. Valeria Piacentini Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore / Prof. Sattar Mazhitov Catholic University of the Sacred Heart Ch. Ch. Valikhanov Institute of Milano, Italy History and Ethnography Almaty, Kazakhstan Prof. Choi Han-Woo Korea University of International Studies Prof Reuel Hanks Seoul, Korea Department of Geography Oklahoma University Prof. Bolat Tatibekov USA Department of Employment and Labour Market Prof. Ilhan Sahin Institute of Economics Institute of History and Turkic Civilization Ministry of Education and Science Kyrgyzstan -Turkey Manas University Almaty, Kazakhstan Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan © Reserved 2011 Printed in March, 2013 Published by Centre of Central Asian Studies University of Kashmir Srinagar – 190006 J&K, India The Journal is peer reviewed, refereed and indexed in EBSCOhost and ProQuest. The Journal is also available online through EBSCO Host Database: Political Science Complete on web.ebscohost.com; and on the University of Kashmir web page http://ccas.uok.edu.in. The publishers are not responsible for the views/reviews of the contributors in this volume of the Journal. No part of this Journal may be reproduced in original or translated without the explicit permission of the publisher. PriceProf. Valdimirper issue: BoykoIndia Rs 800/= or US$ 30. THE JOURNAL OF CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES Volume: XX 2011 No. 1 Chief Editor G. R. Jan Editor Mushtaq A. Kaw Associate Editors G. M. Mir Aijaz A. Bandey CENTRE OF CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF KASHMIR SRINAGAR GUIDELINES TO CONTRIBUTORS Scope of the Journal: The Journal welcomes original papers on any aspect of Central Asian Studies. General Instructions: Manuscripts legibly type-written on one side of A-4 size paper in double space should necessarily comprise the sub-headings like abstract, keywords, introduction, content material, findings/conclusion. The typescript should be carefully checked and preceded by a covering page stating the title of the paper, full name of the author, identification of the author with institutional/home/ mailing address. Preferential language is third person. References/footnotes should be given at the bottom of each page in the following pattern: a) References to books should include the author’s name (initials before the surname in capitals), title of the book (underlined), volume number and edition (if necessary), place of publication, name of publisher, date of publication and page number cited, e.g., L. A. WADDLE, Buddhism and Lamaism of Tibet, Vol. 1, New Delhi: Heritage Publishers, 1979, 47-49. b) Reference to article in periodicals should include the author’s name, title of the article (within commas), followed by the name of Journal (in Italic), volume, number (if any), place of publication, year of publication and page number, e.g., E. J. GRABE, “The decorative Arts of Central Asia in Timuric Period,” Afghanistan Qtrly, 24 (2), 1971, 60-75. Off prints: Ten off prints of the article are supplied free to contributors. Additional off prints can be provided against payment if asked for before the publication of the Journal. Contributors are entitled to a free copy of the Journal. Please send manuscripts and their soft copies for publication to: Prof. Mushtaq A. Kaw Editor The Journal of Central Asian Studies Centre of Central Asian Studies University of Kashmir Hazratbal, Srinagar – 190006 Jammu & Kashmir, India e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Tel: +91-194-2422553 (Off.) +91-194-2420923 (Res.) Cell: +91-9419586966; 9622502820 THE JOURNAL OF CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES Volume: XX 2011 No. 1 Contents GLOBALIZATION AND EURASIA’S ENERGY SECTOR Michael Fredholm 1-18 FICKLE PEACE AND DEVASTATING MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR TANGLE Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi 19-36 ISLAMIC REVIVAL, EDUCATION AND RADICALISM IN CENTRAL ASIA Dilshod Achilov & Renat Shaykhutdinov 37-60 KYRGYZ & UZBEK FOREIGN POLICIES (2005-10) A Comparative Study Yaşar Sarı 61-76 MEASURING CHANGE IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Attitudes Towards Advertising in Kazakhstan Jami Fullerton 77-88 POLITICAL ECONOMY OF KYRGYZSTAN’S DOMESTIC (IN) STABILITY Lasha Tchantouridzé 89-102 KHITANS AND CENTRAL ASIANS A Study in Their Bilateral Relations Dilnoza Duturaeva 103-110 THE NORTHERN FORTRESS AND THE MYTH OF IRON GATE Borbala Obrusanszky 111-116 GEO-CLIMATIC & DEMOGRAPHIC SETTINGS OF EURASIA Mirazim Khaydarov 117-124 DYNAMICS OF JAPAN-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS Lutfullah Mangi 125-134 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA Bek-Ali Yerzhan 135-142 DYNAMICS OF INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS Energy as a Strategic Factor Ramakrushna Pradhan 143-164 BOOK / ARTICLE REVIEW 165 GLOBALIZATION AND EURASIA’S ENERGY SECTOR Michael Fredholm Abstract: In this article, it is argued that globalization, as interplay of relationship between the products, markets and the nation states, has thrown opportunities as well as challenges to the energy sector. While the former has been beneficial to humanity in different respects, the latter has triggered unprecedented malice and heart burning among the energy stakeholders in Eurasia due to changing geo-economic and geo-political scenario. For their constantly growing energy demand, many countries have included Eurasian energy in their foreign policy agenda, and have started protecting their respective trans-national energy companies with all sorts of security and logistics. There are other challenges to the region’s energy sector in the foreseeable future: oil and gas resources are speedily depleting, their refinery capacity is shrinking, climatic change is badly affecting their locational deposits, major global powers are inspiring the funding agencies to sponsor alternative energy transportation corridors to scuttle monopoly of traditional energy buyers, and, above all, China is significantly factoring in region’s “energy production consumption trade structure,” to the detriment of other regional stakeholders, which is quite alarming. As an alternative thereof, Fredholm suggests massive exploration and use of non- conventional energy resources to strike a balance between supply and demand improve energy efficiency and facilitate regional economic organization to play a proactive role in maintaining energy relationship between producers and buyers. Keywords: Russia, Central Asia, Globalisation, Energy, United States, Caspian Sea. Introduction: Energy Scenario: A) Russia and the Global Energy Market Globalization has brought new vulnerabilities and opportunities in Eurasia’s energy sector. In the transition from the command economy of the Soviet period to the market economy of the present, the Russian energy industry gradually changed its strategy. Market relations entered the picture and with them the understanding of the need for mutual economic development. Yet competition and geopolitical rivalry remain, in particular with regard to the final destination of the energy produced in the region. China, the European Union, and the United States all have interests to safeguard. Even so, globalization is changing the global market, making the energy sectors of these actors more interconnected than in the past. Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Program for Central Asian Studies (SIPCAS), Stockholm University, Sweden: [email protected] Globalization and Eurasia’s Energy Sector The effects of globalization are felt throughout Eurasia, including in Central Asia. Globalization is of itself neither good nor evil – but is a fact, akin to a force of nature. Globalization has been described as representing a coin with two faces, one bright and another dark. The one symbolizes economic prosperity and the other, social conflicts. Globalization can neutralize inter- and intra-state conflicts, but the phenomenon will also change social patterns and alter traditional ways of life.1 Globalization brings changes, and for the Eurasian energy sector, the forces of globalization are changing what some believed were constants of the energy market. The key energy relationship in contemporary Eurasia is that between Europe, in particular the member-states of the European Union, as a consumer and Russia as a producer. Production and trade volumes speak its own language, and in this, the energy trade between Europe and Russia dwarfs those between Russia and other markets. In production figures alone, Russia in 2010 produced 505.1 million tonnes of crude oil, as compared to 81.6 million tonnes by Kazakhstan and 50.9 million tonnes by Azerbaijan. In the same year, Russia produced 588.9 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, in comparison to 59.1 bcm by Uzbekistan and 42.4 by Turkmenistan. Russia dominated in trade volumes as well. Taking the trade in natural gas as an example, Russia in 2010 exported no less than 199.85 bcm, of which 186.45 bcm went to Europe and 0.51 bcm to China, as compared to 19.73 bcm by Turkmenistan (to Russia, Iran, and China in descending order) and 11.95 bcm by Kazakhstan (all of which went to Russia, mainly or entirely for re-export to Europe).2 Russia has the world’s largest natural gas resources and often, including in 2010, produced more crude oil than Saudi Arabia.3 Russia is also the fourth largest producer of electricity in the world. By 2010, the Russian energy sector supported approximately 12 per cent of the global trade in oil and coal and more than 20 per cent of the global trade in natural gas. 4 Russia in the same year supplied more than a third of natural gas imports to the European Union, which meant that Russia supplied almost a quarter of the European Union’s total gas needs, and 1 Mushtaq A. Kaw, “Globalisation and Central Asian Space: Costs &Benefits,” Journal of Central Asian Studies, 19(1), 2010, 41-54. 2 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011.
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