Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans
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Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans International Symposium Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans World’s Effects of Climate Change on the Program and Abstracts May 19-23, 2008 Gijón, Spain Images generously supplied by ANSC, NOAA, and Y. Yakovlev Prepared and published by: PICES Secretariat GLOBEC IPO P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2 Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH Canada United Kingdom Tel: 1-250-363-6366 Tel: 44-1752-633401 Fax: 1-250-363-6827 Fax: 44-1752-633101 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.pices.int Website: www.globec.org PICES IEO Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans 19-23 May 2008 Gijón, Spain Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Contents Page Welcome ............................................................................................................................................. iii Background ....................................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... vii The organisation and sponsors ........................................................................................................ ix Notes for guidance ............................................................................................................................. xi General programme .......................................................................................................................... xiii Agendas by session/workshop ......................................................................................................... 1 Abstracts by session/workshop ........................................................................................................ 41 List of participants ............................................................................................................................ 211 Author index ...................................................................................................................................... 241 i Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Welcome On behalf of the scientific committee, the organising team and the Instituto Español de Oceanografía – C.O. de Gijón, and in my own name, I want to welcome all of you to this warm, friendly and beautiful city of Gijón. The event we have the opportunity to enjoy over these days is the culmination of an intensive, interactive and long process in which many very professional people of PICES, IOC, ICES, GLOBEC and the IEO have been involved. The scientific committee hand in hand with the organising team have worked for almost three years to make this event a success and as enjoyable and productive as possible for everyone. The symposium is convened to address a global issue of high scientific and social relevance “Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans”. We have gathered contributions from all over the world (attendance of approximately 450 scientists from over 60 countries is expected) arranged in 10 theme sessions and 4 workshops, over 200 oral communications and 150 posters. The selection and preparation processes have turned out to be an arduous and long task but also very rewarding. This preliminary work shows without any doubt the outstanding dynamism and high quality of oceanographic research at a global scale, and has demonstrated the importance of the resources that it is possible to mobilise through international collaborative research. I would like to encourage all the participants to take part in this symposium. During five days we will have the opportunity to exchange experiences, share new ideas, identify synergies, and build new bridges, and I hope that the result of the discussions will be successful and the conclusions important. The symposium will not conclude this week but it will be continued and perpetuated in a special volume of the ICES Journal Marine Science, in which the best contributions from the symposium will be published in 2009. I want to thank all the institutions for the trust they placed in us when we asked for support in the organisation of this symposium. Without their committed and decisive support our aims would have been impossible to achieve. My sincere thanks and congratulations must also go to the scientific committee for their work in mobilising the wide representation of scientific teams attending the meeting and to all my collaborators in the organising team for the hard work done in the preceding months. Today, we all start to see the fruits of our effort. As Albert Einstein said “Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving”. This is what we are all trying to do in our discussions here in Gijón: to get things moving to be able to adapt ourselves to climate change. Dr. Luis Valdés Director IEO-CO Gijón ICES Convenor, Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans symposium iii Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Background Climate change is the most important threat to the earth. Even if we stabilise CO2 concentrations, the 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment confirms that warming will continue for decades and sea level will continue to rise for centuries. Some direct effects of climate change in the marine environment are already visible, but others need to be defined by enhanced observations, analysis and modelling. We have a rudimentary understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of natural and managed ecosystems to climate change. An assessment of the consequences of climate change on the world’s oceans has a high scientific and social relevance and is urgently needed. Although we are beginning to document the local effects and consequences of climate change on the functioning of marine ecosystems, there is no comprehensive vision at the global scale, and only limited ability to forecast the effects of climate change. To close this gap, the symposium will focus on the major issues of climate change that affect the oceans: oceanic circulation, climate modelling, cycling of carbon and other elements, acidification, oligotrophy, changes in species distributions and migratory routes, sea- level rise, coastal erosion, etc. The symposium will bring together results from observations, analyses and model simulations, at a global scale, and will include discussion of the climate change scenarios and the possibilities for mitigating and protecting the marine environment and living marine resources. v Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Acknowledgements This Book of Abstracts, together with many other aspects of the Symposium preparation, is the product of the hard work, attention to tight deadlines, and high professional standards of the organising team. In particular the contribution of Alex Bychkov (PICES: Symposium coordinator), Julia Yazvenko (PICES: Symposium logistics, webpage design and support), Dawn Ashby (GLOBEC: Symposium “Book of Abstracts”), and the staff of IEO- CO Gijón (local organisation) is gratefully acknowledged. Their work, together with that of their colleagues, has ensured that the Symposium on the “Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans” is organised to the highest of standards. vii Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans The organisation and sponsors Symposium Convenors John Church (IOC) William Peterson (PICES) Luis Valdés (ICES) Scientific Steering Committee Richard Feely (USA) Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia) Jorge Sarmiento (USA) Michael Foreman (Canada) Harald Loeng (Norway) Martin Visbeck (Germany) Roger Harris (UK) Liana McManus (USA/Philippines) Akihiko Yatsu (Japan) Primary international sponsors International Council for the North Pacific Marine Science Intergovernmental Oceanographic Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Organization (PICES) Commission (IOC) Co-sponsoring international organisations GLOBEC World Climate Research Programme Global Ocean Ecosystem Scientific Committee on Oceanic Dynamics (GLOBEC) Research (SCOR) With additional support from Ayuntamiento de Gijón Fisheries and Oceans Korea Ocean Research and National Aeronautics and Space Canada Development Institute Administration National Oceanic and Port Authority of Gijón Asturias Science Plan Sociedad Mixta de Atmospheric Administration 2006-2009 Turismo de Gijón Local organiser Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) Centro Oceanográfico de Gijón ix Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans Notes for guidance Venue The Symposium will be held at the Congress Center in Gijón, Spain. This is a modern building complex with rooms for scientific sessions, workshops and poster exhibition, offices for the Scientific and Organising Committee, and facilities for press-conferences and communication with media. Sessions will be held at the Conference center: Palacio de Congresos de Gijón, Paseo del Dr. Fleming 481, 33203 Gijón, Spain. Registration The registration desk will be located in the foyer of the Congress Centre. Next to the registration desk there will be a notice board for announcements and messages. Symposium secretariat The symposium secretariat and the office of the editorial committee will be located in Room 1 on the 1st floor. Two rooms for parallel meetings will be available on the 1st and 2nd floors. They can be used under request. Oral presentations In order to allow the sessions to run smoothly and in fairness to other speakers, please note that all