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Analysis of Urban Traffic Patterns Using Clustering Analysis of urban traffic patterns using clustering Wendy Weijermars Dissertation committee: prof. dr. F. Eising Universiteit Twente, chairman/secretary prof. dr. ir. E. C. van Berkum Universiteit Twente, promotor prof. dr. ir. B. van Arem Universiteit Twente prof. dr. ir. M. F. A. M. van Maarseveen Universiteit Twente prof. dr. M. C. Bell University of Leeds dr. T. Brijs Universiteit Hasselt prof. dr. E. Chung University of Tokyo/EPFL TRAIL Thesis Series T2007/3, The Netherlands TRAIL Research School This thesis is the result of a Ph.D. study carried out between 2002 and 2006 at the University of Twente, faculty of Engineering Technology, department of Civil Engineering, Centre for Transport Studies. TRAIL Research School P.O. Box 5017 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands Telephone: +31 15 2786046 Telefax: + 31 15 2784333 E-mail: [email protected] The research is part of the Dutch TRANSUMO (TRansition SUstainable MObility) program. Cover picture: detail of an artwork designed by Olaf Mooij on a roundabout in Enschede. The picture is taken by Wendy Weijermars Typeset in LATEX Copyright °c 2007 by W.A.M. Weijermars, Enschede, The Netherlands All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the written permission of the author. Printed by Gildeprint BV, Enschede, The Netherlands. ISBN 978-90-365-2465-0 Analysis of urban traffic patterns using clustering PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Twente, op gezag van de rector magni¯cus, prof. dr. W.H.M. Zijm, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 13 april 2007 om 15.00 uur door Wilhelmina Adriana Maria Weijermars geboren op 25 december 1977 te Rijnsburg Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: prof. dr. ir. E. C. van Berkum Voorwoord Op sommige momenten en locaties stroomt het verkeer probleemloos door, terwijl het op andere momenten en locaties stagneert. Zo is het ook met onderzoek. Zoals waarschijnlijk iedere promovendus heb ik momenten gehad waarop ik dacht dat ik het nooit af zou ronden. Nu is dan toch het moment gekomen dat ik met het schrijven van dit voorwoord de laatste hand leg aan mijn proefschrift. Dit was niet gelukt zonder de hulp van een aantal mensen en organisaties, die ik hier dan ook voor wil bedanken. Data is onmisbaar geweest voor dit onderzoek. De volgende bedrijven en instanties wil ik dan ook van harte bedanken voor het leveren van de benodigde data: Vialis, de gemeente Almelo, de regiopolitie Twente en het KNMI. Daarnaast wil ik met name Steven Boerma en Jeroen Konermann van Vialis en Rob Hulleman en Wim Stulen van de gemeente Almelo bedanken voor de goede en prettige samenwerking. Jullie kennis met betrekking tot de data en de lokale situatie heeft me erg geholpen! Ik wil Martin van Maarseveen bedanken voor de kans die hij mij geboden heeft om na mijn afstuderen bij de vakgroep te komen werken als medewerker onderzoek. In deze tijd hebben Eric van Berkum en ik het promotievoorstel kunnen schrijven dat uiteindelijk heeft geleid tot dit proefschrift. Mijn promotor Eric van Berkum wil ik bedanken voor zijn begeleiding. Eric, met name je wiskundige kennis en je ideeÄenover verkeersmanagement waren zeer nuttig. Ik ben heel blij dat Tom Thomas uiteindelijk als postdoc binnen Transumo begonnen is. Tom, in het begin was het niet helemaal duidelijk wat jouw taak was en wat we van elkaar moesten verwachten, maar uiteindelijk ben ik heel tevreden over onze samenwerking. De brainstormsessies en je hulp met de analyses waren zeer welkom! Ook alle afstudeerders die ik begeleid heb wil ik bedanken voor de discussies en nieuwe inzichten. Met name Anton en Marcel bedankt, jullie werk is erg nuttig geweest voor mijn promotieonderzoek. Daarnaast wil ik een aantal andere mensen binnen de UT bedanken voor hun hulp, die opvallend vaak met computerzaken van doen heeft. Bas, bedankt dat je me op gang geholpen hebt met SPSS en Manifold. Kasper, bedankt voor je hulp met Delphi - het is dan uiteindelijk SPSS geworden, maar onze Delphi-exercities hebben me wel nuttige inzichten verschaft- en Omnitrans. v vi Mijn LaTeX-koningen Mark, Jebbe, Thijs en Andries, bedankt! Zonder jullie was het Word geworden. Axel en Martijn, bedankt dat ik altijd bij jullie binnen kon lopen als mijn computer weer eens kuren vertoonde. Tot slot, Dorette en Maureen bedankt voor de secretariÄeleondersteuning en de gezelligheid op het secretariaat. Ik heb een enorm gezellige tijd gehad op de UT! Hiervoor wil ik alle (oud-)collega's van harte bedanken. In het bijzonder wil ik Andries, Anne- Marie, Attila, Bas, Blanca & Freek, Cornelie & Ste®en, DaniÄelle, Frans & Mascha, Jan-Willem, Jebbe, Judith & Niels, Gio, Kasper, Mako, Mark, Martijn, Pieter van Oel & Bertien, Pieter Roos & Judith, Thijs en Tom bedanken voor de ¯jne tijd op het werk, op de squashbaan, bij de pubquiz, in de kroeg, in de sportschool en/of op andere locaties. Frans, na mijn afstudeerbegeleider werd je mijn kamergenoot. Ik had me geen betere kamergenoot kunnen wensen! Bedankt voor de goede gesprekken, de ko±e en de lol die we samen hadden en hebben, op en buiten kantoor. Cornelie en Blanca, ik ben heel blij dat jullie mijn paranimfen willen zijn. Cornelie, we zijn vlak na elkaar begonnen als medewerker onderzoek en zijn vervolgens beiden aan een promotieonderzoek begonnen. Ik ben blij dat je al deze jaren mijn collega geweest bent. Bedankt voor het doorlezen van stukken en de adviezen, je gezelligheid en de memorabele stap-avonden (nee, de toegift is al geweest). Blanca, je kwam twee jaar geleden als tijdelijke medewerker bij de afdeling Water, maar je bent er gelukkig nog steeds. Bedankt voor de Spaanse les en de meidenavonden, je interesse en je spontaniteit. Van buiten de universiteit wil ik Construktie (Arthur, Bram, Doutsen, Harm, Koen, Marko en Robin) en C¶ecilebedanken voor hun vriendschap. Papa, mama en Leonie, bedankt voor jullie onvoorwaardelijke liefde en steun en het vertrouwen dat jullie altijd in mij gehad hebben. Last but certainly not least wil ik Jebbe bedanken. Jebbe, een hele mooie bijkomstigheid van mijn promotieonderzoek is dat ik jou heb leren kennen. Ik had je al bedankt voor je hulp met LaTeX en de ¯jne tijd op en buiten de UT, maar daarnaast en vooral wil ik je bedanken voor je liefde, je steun, je vertrouwen en je eigenheid. Ik hou van je! Wendy Weijermars Enschede, 5 maart 2007 Contents Voorwoord v 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background . 2 1.2 Research objectives and scope . 6 1.3 Scienti¯c and practical relevance . 7 1.4 Thesis outline . 9 2 Urban tra±c data 11 2.1 Urban tra±c information centres . 11 2.2 Data . 14 2.2.1 Tra±c data . 14 2.2.2 Data on factors potentially influencing tra±c . 16 2.3 Data processing . 17 2.4 Data interpretation . 22 2.5 Summary . 23 3 Variations in urban tra±c 25 3.1 Temporal variations . 25 3.1.1 Short term variations . 26 3.1.2 Variations within a day . 26 3.1.3 Variations between days . 27 3.1.4 Long term variations . 30 3.2 Spatial variations . 31 3.2.1 Spatial variations in tra±c volumes . 31 3.2.2 Spatial-temporal tra±c patterns . 32 3.2.3 Variations in urban tra±c patterns . 32 3.2.4 Di®erences in temporal tra±c patterns between locations 33 3.3 Variations in travel behaviour . 35 3.4 Discussion . 39 4 Analysis of urban tra±c patterns 41 4.1 Design of clustering procedure . 42 4.1.1 Pattern representation . 42 vii viii CONTENTS 4.1.2 Clustering procedure . 44 4.2 Analysis of temporal tra±c patterns . 46 4.2.1 Description of resultant clusters . 46 4.2.2 Determination of factors on the basis of the clusters . 48 4.2.3 Variation within the clusters . 50 4.3 Analysis of spatial tra±c patterns . 51 4.3.1 Variations in average daily flow pro¯les . 52 4.3.2 Variations in weekly patterns . 53 4.3.3 Variations in seasonal patterns . 55 4.3.4 Variations in weather factors . 56 4.3.5 Variations in temporal classi¯cations . 57 4.4 Tra±c patterns on a network level . 59 4.5 Summary . 61 5 Almelo: Data 63 5.1 ViaContent . 63 5.2 Data . 64 5.2.1 Tra±c data . 64 5.2.2 Data on factors potentially influencing tra±c . 66 5.3 Data processing . 67 5.3.1 Pre-processing of individual data records . 68 5.3.2 Data validation . 69 5.3.3 Evaluation of data control procedure . 74 5.4 Available tra±c data after processing . 77 5.4.1 Data quality . 77 5.4.2 Available data . 78 5.5 Conclusions . 81 6 Almelo: Network and tra±c demand 83 6.1 Network structure and major attractions . 83 6.2 Main tra±c streams . 84 6.3 Daily flow pro¯les . 89 6.4 Summary . 91 7 Almelo: Tra±c patterns 93 7.1 Temporal tra±c patterns . 93 7.1.1 De¯nition of a daily flow pro¯le . 94 7.1.2 Working day patterns . 95 7.1.3 Non-working day patterns . 101 7.2 Spatial tra±c patterns . 103 7.2.1 Variations in average daily flow pro¯les . 103 7.2.2 Variations in weekly patterns . 106 7.2.3 Variations in seasonal patterns . 109 7.2.4 Variations in weather factors . 112 7.2.5 Variations in temporal classi¯cations .
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