Case Studies Georg Umgiesser and Natalja Čerkasova KU, Lithuania Case 1: A beach in the Curonian Lagoon Current situation in Curonian lagoon Beach Beach in Kintai In the past, especially in Baltic inner coastal waters, several beaches had to be closed because of insufficient bathing water quality. Today, increasing tourism causes a strong demand to reopen these beaches again and to establish additional beaches, especially in large lagoons, like the Curonian lagoon and on the Lithuanian coast. The proposed beach Neringa municipality wants to establish the beach on lagoon side Nida beach and lagoon temperature In august 2013 the amount of fecal coliform (E. coli) exceed 1.9 times the allowed threshold Modeling: sewage input Calibration and validation 8 Decay time sensitivity 9 Scenario description Name Period Description Reference (R) 2015 Reference simulation, calibrated inputs Scenario 1 (S1) 2015 Tourism on Spit (input*5) Scenario 2 (S2) 2015 Extreme wind conditions (wind*2) Scenario 3 (S3) 2015 Breakdown of sewage system (input*10) Scenario 4 (S4) 2015 High loading from rivers (input*10) Scenario 5 (S5) 2015 Input from Russian side Reference long (RL) 2004-2015 Reference simulation for 12 years Scenario 3 long (S3L) 2004-2015 No sewage system for 12 years (input*10) 10 Summer 2015: max and hours over threshold 11 Results for 2015 name Max concentration Hours over theshold Days over threshold spring summer spring summer spring summer R 95.2 74.5 0 0 0 0 S1 475.9 372.5 0 0 0 0 S2 155.1 90.8 0 0 0 0 S3 951.9 744.9 23 81 4 13 S4 95.2 74.5 0 0 0 0 S5 95.2 74.5 0 0 0 0 S3d 951.9 744.9 23 81 4 13 S5a 95.2 74.5 0 0 0 0 12 Results for 2004-2015 Name and period Maximum concentration Hours over threshold Days over threshold [cfu/100 ml] RL winter 242.6 0 0 RL spring 103.8 0 0 RL summer 91.3 0 0 RL autumn 259.9 0 0 S3L winter 2183.3 8481 550 S3L spring 934.0 879 119 S3L summer 821.8 667 102 S3L autumn 2338.9 5774 388 13 Areas of influence 14 Main points to consider • What are the economic implications creating a beach inside the lagoon? • Will this attract more people? • Will sewage systems have to be upgraded? • What will be the maintenance costs for the beach? 15 Case 2: A new sewage outlet • The Gulf of Oristano is a small bay in the west of Sardinia • The exchange with the ocean is mainly due to wind action, since there are very little tides • Sewage outlets must be planned carefully because the exchange capabilities with the open sea are limited The Gulf of Oristano The Gulf of Oristano 18 Sardinia has beautiful beaches 19 The industrial port of Oristano • A new sewage outfall is planned close to the industrial port. • It is necessary to assess the impact of the sewage outfall on the surrounding areas. 20 The industrial port of Oristano 21 Impact of waste water discharge L3 Test area: L2 • Industrial port [IH] TA • Possible sewage outlet L1 position [L1, L2, L3] IH • Touristic area [TA] Commercial port of Oristano Evaluate impact of pollutants • constant SW wind with speed of 8 m/s L1 L2 L3 Main points to consider • Which solution out of the proposed ones is better and why? • Are there other options to place the sewage outlet? • What will be the costs for the pipeline? • How will the touristic industry be impacted? • What about the water quality in the harbour? 24 Case 3: The Venice lagoon mobile barriers (MOSE) • 50 km long • 10 km wide • 300,000 inhabitants • 30,000,000 tourists annually • 1.5 m average depth • tidal range 1.0 m • 50 km2 salt marshes Hydrodynamic model: grid and bathymetry Venice is flooded 20 times a year Annual frequency of flooding events (= tides >1.10 m above local datum) in Venice (from1872 to 2009) Interventions at the inlets: The Mose project Mose: how it works Pros & Cons • Very efficient for protection • Very expensive • Work only if needed • Maintenance and • Do not change the water management will be budget of the lagoon difficult • Can be used to artificially • Sea level rise will question enhance circulation in the the utility of the barriers lagoon • Strong intervention in the • Localized interventions natural equilibrium of the lagoon The lagoon with tidal marshes Ship traffic and the MOSE • The planned mobile barriers will not only change the water exchange with the open sea but they will also interfere with the ship traffic IPCC report 2013 (AR5) Closures of Mose (projection) approx. 1 closure per day for 50 cm SLR If or when? • The question will not be if it happens but when it happens • In this case the only possibility will be to cut off the lagoon from the Adriatic Sea, transforming it into a fresh water lake • In order to close the lagoon some conditions must be fulfilled: • no pollution • a sewage system for the city of Venice • the industrial and touristic port should be transferred out of the lagoon • The Danube Delta or the Baltic lagoons show us nice examples of fresh water lagoons Main points to consider • Can we estimate the benefits of limiting the water level to 110 cm? • What is the implication to ship traffic? • How many closures a year are affordable for the ship traffic and the water exchange? • How will tourism be impacted by the MOSE? • How can we deal with a regime shift in the ecological system? Do we maybe need an ecological model to deal with this? 37 Case 4: Connectivity in the Mar Menor • The Mar Menor is a lagoon on the Mediterranean coast of Spain • Touristic industry is very important • The exchange with the Mediterranean is extremely limited 38 The Mar Menor is heavily populated 39 Modeling connectivity in the Mar Menor Connectivity results Range thickness 1 70754 Connectivity results Edges filtered Range thickness 5000 70754 4 3 Connectivity results Range of particles exchanged averaged on groups edges Range thickness 352 11056 Connectivity results: conclusions Particles generated in the northern sub-basin are the most scattered in the lagoon; particles generated in the southern sub-basin are more confined. The central stations 31 and 23 act as transit areas. These patterns are consistent with the circulation of the main current at the Estacio inlet, which crosses the basin transversally. Enlarging the main entrance • There is intention to enlarge the main entrance to the Mar Menor 45 The main entrance to the lagoon 46 The Mar Menor during Climate Change 47 Main points to consider • What are the economic implications enlarging the inlet? • How does the circulation change? • Is it always beneficial having more exchange with the sea? • What happens to salinity in the Mar Menor? • Will the fish population change in the lagoon? • How might tourism be affected by the opening? 48 .