January 2017 1/2017

Jyrki Kallio The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

The One China policy and Taiwan:Trump is playing with fire next to a powder keg Will the Taiwan Issue once again become central to US-China relations once Donald Trump’s presidential term gets underway or is it just a storm in a teacup?

US President-elect Donald Trump still officially considered a province, recognizes the government of the indicated in a TV news interview in although its factual independence is PRC as the sole legal government of December 2016: “I don’t know why tolerated in practice. Internationally, China. At the same time, according we have to be bound by a One China Taiwan can be considered a sovereign to the EEAS factsheet on EU-Taiwan policy unless we make a deal with nation in many aspects – the most relations, it insists that any arrange- China having to do with other things, significant exception being the lack ment between the two sides of the including trade”. The sentiment of recognition by the majority of the Taiwan Strait can only be achieved that China is playing by unfair rules world’s countries and international on a mutually acceptable basis, is widely shared in the US, but the organizations like the UN. “with reference also to the wishes suggestion of using the One China The One China policy is central of the Taiwanese population”. This policy as a bargaining chip was new. to the PRC’s diplomatic relations. means that the EU, similarly to the To make matters worse for China, It means that any country that US, does not unconditionally accept the Taiwanese leader, Tsai Ing-wen, recognizes the PRC must break the PRC’s claim over Taiwan. TheEU had a phone conversation with official relations with theROC . The recognizes Taiwan as an economic Mr Trump following the election. US switched diplomatic recognition and commercial entity, and main- Whether these were just slip-ups from the ROC to the PRC in 1979. The tains relations with Taiwan in various caused by the inexperience of Mr preceding Shanghai Communiqué non-political areas. Trump’s advisory team or signs that from 1972 states that the US “ac- For the PRC’s part, the One China the “Taiwan Lobby” in Washington is knowledges that all Chinese on policy is based on the One China gaining new momentum remains an either side of the Taiwan Strait principle, which means that Taiwan open question. maintain there is but one China and is to be considered an inalienable The Taiwan Issue refers to the that Taiwan is a part of China”. This part of China and that reunification unresolved Chinese civil war, which does not explicitly mean that the US is the only acceptable outcome of in 1949 resulted in the Mainland itself recognizes Taiwan as a part of the Taiwan Issue. Since 1979, the being controlled by the government China. PRC has maintained that the goal of the People’s Republic of China On the contrary, the US has is peaceful reunification under the (PRC) and the island of Taiwan by the stressed on various occasions that “one country, two systems” principle. Republic of China (ROC). Both claim the future of Taiwan should be However, China has never rejected sovereignty over China as a whole, decided by the Taiwanese people. a military option if all else fails. The and neither recognize the other. The Furthermore, since 1979 the US has Global Times, a nationalist newspaper civil war has remained frozen for maintained a special relationship operated by Party organ the People’s decades, and there are flourishing with Taiwan as defined by the Taiwan Daily, suggested in December 2016 economic, trade and people-to-peo- Relations Act. This authorizes theUS that it might be time for the PRC ple contacts across both sides of the to have de facto diplomatic relations to make the use of force the main Taiwan Strait. The government of the with “the governing authorities” option. ROC no longer nurtures ambitions on Taiwan, and states that the US In cross-strait relations, the to take over the Mainland, and has will provide Taiwan with arms of a One China principle has evolved in practice resigned itself to being defensive character. into the so-called 1992 Consensus, the “Republic of China on Taiwan”. The EU similarly abides by the which simply states that both With regard to the PRC, Taiwan is One China policy, meaning that it sides agree that there is only one 2

Finnish Institute of China. However, the “consensus” The bottom line, however, is that International Affairs is shrouded in strategic ambiguity, the One China principle is of vital Kruunuvuorenkatu 4 which suits all parties. For the PRC, interest to the PRC, and hence even POB 400 the consensus is as it stands above. the One China policy cannot be 00161 Helsinki For the ROC, the official view has traded. The Communist Party has been that while the consensus exists, tied its legitimacy to reunification Telephone both sides of the Taiwan Strait have and is ultimately willing to go to +358 (0)9 432 7000 their own interpretations in regard war in order to prevent a permanent to “One China”. This view has been division into two Chinas. Toying Fax challenged by the current ruling with the idea of rejecting the One +358 (0)9 432 7799 party on Taiwan, the Democratic China policy is playing with fire, Progressive Party (DPP), whose and might lead to Mr Trump getting www.f iia.f i supporters usually refuse to accept more than he bargained for if the the existence of any consensus. The very foundations of US-PRC relations incumbent president of the ROC, Tsai start to shake. Ing-wen, represents the DPP and has so far been vague in her state- ments on the issue, but from the PRC viewpoint, her unwillingness to state acceptance of the 1992 Consensus is as good as a rejection of it. President Tsai’s position stems from the changing attitudes and even identities of the Taiwanese population. An increasing number no longer identify themselves as Chinese, or feel the need for the The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an “motherland” to reunify. Taiwan is independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decision-making and arguably on its way to statehood public debate both nationally and internationally. as “the Republic of Taiwan”. Seen against this background, it would All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other be prudent for both the US and the experts in the field to ensure the high quality EU to refrain from mixing their of the publications. In addition, publications adherence to the One China policy undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views with acceptance of the One China expressed ultimately rests with the authors. principle.