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THQ Nordic Reason: Preview of Results Koch Media Pressures Margins Equity Research - 08 August 2018 09:09 CET THQ Nordic Reason: Preview of results Koch Media pressures margins Q2 report due 15 August More acquisitions to come Stock trading at ’19e adj. EV/EBIT of 18.6x Share price (SEK) 07/08/2018 187.2 Technology Hardware & Equipment, Sweden Seasonally softer quarter THQNb.ST/THQNb.ST Q2 is the first full quarter after the acquisition of Koch Media; we forecast group sales of SEK 680m and EBIT of SEK 71.4m. Due to some MCap (SEKm) 16,502 seasonality with a less intensive release window within the games MCap (EURm) 1,596.7 market, the second quarter of the year is usually not the strongest. Net debt (EURm) -155 Moreover, with no major releases during the quarter for either THQ and Deep Silver, we anticipate softer Q2 figures. The seasonality applies for No. of shares (m) 88.2 Partner Publishing as well, and now that an expected larger share of Free float (%) 44.0 revenues for the quarter is coming from Koch Media, which has a higher Av. daily volume (k) 315.5 amount of fixed overhead costs, the lower sales should lead to lower operating margins. Next event Q2 report: 15 Aug Minor acquisition after Q2 Performance As THQ announced earlier in July, Darksiders 3 now has given the official release date of 27 November, although sales from the game have 800 700 already been factored into account in our estimates. Together with the 600 Deep Silver AAA-title Metro Exodus, which will be released in Q1’19, 500 THQ is set to again see stronger figures in the upcoming winter. As has 400 historically been the case, we expect a majority of this year’s profits to 300 200 occur in Q4. 100 0 Furthermore, at the start of Q3, THQ announced the acquisition of Jul 17 Jul Jul 18 Jul Jan 17 Jan Jan 18 Jan Mar 17 Mar Mar 18 Mar Nov 16 Nov Sep 17 Sep Nov 17 Nov May 17 May May 18 May HandyGames for an initial payment of EUR 1m. The German company THQ Nordic OMX STH PI will operate as a publisher for small and mid-sized projects, 1m 3m 12m complementing the setup for the rest of the group. However, the German Absolute (%) 1.7 22.2 217.3 video game developer and publisher remains a smaller acquisition, and OMX STH PI (%) 6.0 2.6 5.3 with the share issuing THQ did earlier in June with proceeds amounting Source: FactSet to SEK 1,448m, we believe that more acquisitions are yet to come. Current valuation The stock is currently trading at adj. EV/EBIT of 18.6x and P/E of 27.1x for 2019e. Lead analyst: Stefan Knutsson Erik Moberg Victor Forssell SEKm 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2018e 2019e 2020e Sales 302 508 3,683 4,480 4,860 P/E (x) 35.4 27.1 24.1 EBITDA 132 273 1,114 1,427 1,584 P/E adj (x) 35.4 27.1 24.1 EBITDA margin (%) 43.8 53.7 30.2 31.9 32.6 P/BVPS (x) 5.08 4.28 3.63 EBIT adj 95 188 612 804 901 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 10.5 9.3 EBIT adj margin (%) 31.5 37.1 16.6 17.9 18.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) 24.7 18.6 16.4 Pretax profit 93 182 592 780 877 EV/sales (x) 4.10 3.34 3.04 EPS rep 1.00 1.76 5.29 6.90 7.76 ROE adj (%) 21.6 17.1 16.3 EPS adj 1.00 1.76 5.29 6.90 7.76 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 Sales growth (%) 41.8 68.1 625.7 21.6 8.5 FCF yield (%) 0.1 0.9 1.2 EPS growth (%) 17.0 75.8 201.0 30.5 12.5 Net IB debt/EBITDA -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report THQ Nordic Opportunities Risks A large part of the IP portfolio is still not generating any Despite THQ Nordic’s broad portfolio, there are risks income, but the pipeline of game launches is strong, associated with larger title releases as they have a including a few AAA titles. Together with a strong relatively large impact on sales right after launch. management with a clear M&A agenda, THQ is well suited Moreover, disappointing releases or reviews could dent for future value-adding acquisitions, which could mean end-customer enthusiasm and hurt the company's securing more IPs and portfolio expansion. The acquisition finances, especially during the launch period. Delays in of Koch Media further adds new distribution/publishing planned and ongoing gaming projects could adversely channels, an opportunity to reach further and wider with affect the group’s profitability. Acquiring established but the current portfolio and expected pipeline, aligning them temporarily underperforming gaming brands and gradually for additional growth. improving them increases the potential risk of performing below market expectations. Sales split Q1, (%) Business area breakdown, sales Q1, SEKm 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 THQ Nordic Deep Silver Partner Owned titles Publishing titles Publishing/Film Sales Sales Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2018e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK 6.5 8.0 6.0 7.5 7.0 5.5 6.5 5.0 6.0 4.5 5.5 4.0 5.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description THQ Nordic acquires, develops and publishes PC and 1,600 350 console games for the global gaming market. Its core 1,400 300 business model consists of acquiring established gaming 1,200 250 brands and gradually improving them. Much of THQ’s soul 1,000 stems from entrepreneur, founder and CEO Lars 200 Wingefors, who at the age of 16 founded Nordic Games, 800 150 which we today associate with THQ Nordic. The game 600 changer came in 2013 when most of today’s brand 100 400 portfolio was acquired from THQ Inc’s insolvency. At the 200 50 start of 2018, the company acquired Koch Media, which focuses on game development and gives THQ a larger 0 0 publishing business. quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 8 August 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 2 THQ Nordic Quarterly and yearly overview P/L SEKm Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18e Q3'18e Q4'18e 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Net Sales 82 86 85 255 633 680 890 1480 213 302 508 3683 4480 4860 COGS -25 -24 -30 -69 -320 -375 -476 -740 -70 -119 -148 -1911 -2262 -2430 Gross profit 71 78 71 222 405 393 540 885 156 228 442 2223 2761 3016 Operating costs -29 -38 -37 -65 -179 -233 -305 -392 -51 -96 -169 -1109 -1334 -1432 D&A -10 -9 -11 -54 -119 -88 -116 -178 -38 -37 -84 -501 -623 -683 EBIT 32 30 24 102 107 71 119 314 67 95 188 612 804 901 Net financials 0 0 -1 -5 -9 -4 -3 -5 -1 -2 -6 -21 -24 -24 EBT 31 30 23 97 98 68 116 309 66 93 182 592 780 877 Taxes -8 -7 -4 -24 -17 -15 -26 -68 -14 -21 -43 -126 -172 -193 Net result 24 23 19 73 81 53 91 241 51 72 139 466 608 684 Revenue grow th Q/Q -36% 4% -1% 202% 148% 7% 31% 66% Revenue grow th Y/Y 90% 62% 9% 99% 673% 695% 951% 479% 20% 42% 68% 626% 22% 8% Gross margin 70% 72% 65% 73% 49% 45% 47% 50% 67% 61% 71% 48% 50% 50% EBIT margin 39% 35% 28% 40% 17% 11% 13% 21% 31% 31% 37% 17% 18% 19% Net margin 29% 27% 22% 29% 13% 8% 10% 16% 24% 24% 27% 13% 14% 14% Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data 8 August 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 3 THQ Nordic Income Statement (SEKm) Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018e Q3 2018e Q4 2018e Sales 82 86 85 255 633 680 890 1,480 COGS -25 -24 -30 -69 -320 -375 -476 -740 Gross profit 57 61 55 186 313 305 414 740 Other operating items -15 -22 -20 -30 -87 -145 -179 -247 EBITDA 42 40 35 156 226 160 235 493 Depreciation on tangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation on intangibles -10 -9 -11 -54 -119 -88 -116 -178 EBITA 32 30 24 102 107 71 119 314 Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 32 30 24 102 107 71 119 314 Interest Net -0 -0 -1 -5 -9 -4 -3 -5 Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pretax profit 31 30 23 97 98 68 116 309 Tax -8 -7 -4 -24 -17 -15 -26 -68 Net profit 24 23 19 73 81 53 91 241 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 24 23 19 73 81 53 91 241 EPS 0.33 0.32 0.24 0.93 1.02 0.60 1.03 2.74 EPS Adj 0.33 0.32 0.24 0.93 1.02 0.60 1.03 2.74 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tax rate (%) 25.3 22.6 18.8 24.4 17.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 Gross margin (%) 70.1 71.6 64.9 72.9 49.5 44.9 46.5 50.0 EBITDA margin (%) 51.2 46.4 40.8 61.2 35.7 23.5 26.4 33.3 EBITA margin (%) 38.9 35.5 28.4 39.9 16.9 10.5 13.4 21.2 EBIT margin (%) 38.9 35.5 28.4 39.9 16.9 10.5 13.4 21.2 Pretax margin (%) 38.4 35.1 27.7 38.0 15.5 10.0 13.1 20.9 Net margin (%) 28.7 27.1 22.5 28.7 12.8 7.8 10.2 16.3 Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018e Q3 2018e Q4 2018e Sales growth (%) 89.9 62.2 8.8 99.3 672.8 694.8 951.2 479.5 EBITDA growth (%) 81.8 71.2 36.4 157.4 439.0 302.5 580.4 214.9 EBIT growth (%) 124.2 113.3 50.3 101.5 236.6 135.4 397.5 208.2 Net profit growth (%) 119.7 119.5 50.1 93.2 244.4 127.7 377.8 228.7 EPS growth (%) 119.7 119.5 50.1 93.2 244.4 127.7 377.8 228.7 Adj earnings numbers Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018e Q3 2018e Q4 2018e EBITDA Adj 42 40 35 156 226 160 235 493 EBITDA Adj margin (%) 51.2 46.4 40.8 61.2 35.7 23.5 26.4 33.3 EBITA Adj 32 30 24 102 107 71 119 314 EBITA Adj margin (%) 38.9 35.5 28.4 39.9 16.9 10.5 13.4 21.2 EBIT Adj 32 30 24 102 107 71 119 314 EBIT Adj margin (%) 38.9 35.5 28.4 39.9 16.9 10.5 13.4 21.2 Pretax profit Adj 31 30 23 97 98 68 116 309 Net profit Adj 24 23 19 73 81 53 91 241 Net profit to shareholders Adj 24 23 19 73 81 53 91 241 Net Adj margin (%) 28.7 27.1 22.5 28.7 12.8 7.8 10.2 16.3 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 8 August 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 4 THQ Nordic Income Statement (SEKm) na na na 2014 2015
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