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GROWTH POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, SETTLEMENT Palterns , 1MATANUSKA·SUSITNA BOROUGH COMPREHENSIVE V- PLANNING PROGRAM GROWTH POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, SETTLEMENT PAlTERNS VOLUME20F2 HT .TANUSKA·SUSITNA·BELUGA COOPERATIVE PLANNING PROGRAM 393 .A42 M383 1982 MAY 1982 v.2 Prepared by: DOWL ENGINEERS For the: MATANUSKA·SUSITNA BOROUGH \ paWL Engineers 4040 "0" Street Anchorage, Alaska 99503 Phone (907) 2711-1551 (Telecopier (907) 272-5742) May 17, 1982 W.O. #013421 Dear Citizen: The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is on the threshold of growth that may be unprecedented in Alaska in terms of long term expansion of economic base. The number of private and State governmental activities and proposed projects which are getting underway or on the horizon can be expected to exert substantial influence on the future growth and character of the Borough. They include: o Capital move to Willow o Knik Arm Crossing o State land Disposals o large Scale Agricultural Development o Expanded Development of Mineral Resources o Susitna Hydro Projects o Port MacKenzie Industrial Development As evidenced by the construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, major economic "booms" can quickly turn into "busts."."leaving behind crippled. economies. The activities and projects listed above, i'lave the potential to significantly impact existing development and lifestyles. By anticipating these impacts with proper planning, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough's economy can grow, diversify, and prosper. The "boom/bust" cycle can give way to a healthy stable economy, an economy that can preserve existing lifestyles while allowing desirable uniform growth. In order for this "healthy" growth to occur, the decisions that are made by business, government and private individuals must be based upon sound information, public awareness, and planning. In response to existing growth and change in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, as well as the needs and potential for future growth, a number of governmental entities recently began independent land use, transporta­ tion, public facilities, and other planning efforts. Among those studies is the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Comprehensive Plan. This document is the first of several reports to be published as part of that plan. Other plans and studies being done are the Matanuska-Susitna-Beluga Area Plan by the State Department of Natural Resources (DNR), the Matanuska and Susitna Transportation Study (MAST) by the State Department of Trans­ portation and Public Facilities (DOT/PF), the Borough's Coastal Manage­ ment Program, the Knik Arm Crossing Study by DOT/PF, and the Denali land Bank Study by the Federal Bureau of land Management (BlM). Early on in these planning efforts, it became clear there was a potential for overlap and duplication. Consequently, efforts are now being made to _ 'J _ coordinate these studies through the Borough's Comprehensive Plan. ~ ;~ n;_I.;~~ "A~ ~; v .l.. D ... '_1_.... I .•. I: __ .. __ 0 ....... r ••• _I .... .,_1.. '_ n .,,_1..._,_ This and an accompanying report are the product of this coordination effort. The two reports, one prepared by the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and its consultants, the other by the State Department of Natural Re­ sources, present introductory information on resources, issues, growth potential, regional settlement patterns, and other information pertinent to the beginning stages of the two planning programs. These two background reports were prepared in advance of public meet­ ings to be held in June 1982 in communities throughout the study areas and also in Anchorage. (Specific times and locations will be announced and publicized.) The June meetings are intended to provide the public the opportunity to identify land use, transportation, public facilities, and other key issues facing the study area and to react to the information on similar subjects prepared by government planners and presented in the two reports. The issues identified through this process will give direc­ tion to government decision makers over the duration of the Borough Comprehensive planning process and the DN R Area Planning. Please review this report. Determine whether you feel the information presented is comprehensive or incomplete, whether it is accurate, or in need of augmentation. Then attend the June meetings to express your thoughts and opinions. If you are unable to attend the meetings, please send your comments or call the location given below. GLJ:cm14i Send comments to: Claudio Arenas Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department P.O. Box B Palmer, Alaska 99645 Phone: 745-4801 ,\ ',......" ~ F"1 ;d ....,. -=='-~ "., MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH :::::::d ~ COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROGRAM , ~=1 3 Growth Potential Development Issues ~ Regional Development Patterns oJ ~ Volume 2 of 2 Matanuska-Susitna-Beluga Cooperative Planning Program ~ ,...J! oJ May 26, 1982 ~'" ~ ~ -i =1 , ~ Prepared by: Prepared for: ~ DOWL Engineers Matanuska-Susitna Borough ~ II 4040 I BI Street Box IIB Anchorage, Alaska Palmer, Alaska 99645 -, ... ..i' :di C L r TABLE OF CONTENTS b ~\ Page ~ ~ I. INTRODUCTION ...................... .. 2 L lei A. Purpose of Organization of the Two Background Reports.. 2 r 1. Overview. ..................•. .. 2 l--C 2. Public and Agency Comments on this Report. ... .. 4 3. Organiztion of this Report .• .......... .. 5 o B. The Need for Planning Coordination .......... .• 8 1. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Comprehensive Plan .. .. 8 c 2. Plan for Public Lands -- Susitna-Beluga Area Plan .. 9 3. Matanuska and Susitna Transportation Study (Masts). 9 4. Denali Land Bank Study -- Federal Lands. .... .. 9 c 5. Coastal Zone Management Plan. ........•. .. 10 C. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Comprehensive Plan .... .. 10 [ 1. Study Area .................... .. 11 2. Purpose and Products of the Comprehensive Plan . .. 11 C 3. Iss·ues ...................... .. 12 4. Schedule for Remaining Steps in the Comprehensive Plan G Process ..................... .. 12 rl II. GROWTH POTENTIAL. ................... .. 17 l~~~ A. Background Information. ............ ... .. 17 B. The Need for Goals and Objectives .......... .. 18 f:j 6\ C. Population Projections. ................ .. 20 1. Past Population Trends .............. .. 20 ~ 2. Projection Scenarios. ............... .. 23 11 3. Base Case Projections ............... .. 25 4. High Population Scenario ............. .. 27 ,.-f,;/ ~ r1 III. RESOURCE SUMMARIES AND ISSUES. ........... .. 33 i.J w =-'r- c c n TABLE OF CONTENTS k.J ( Continued) B t;c.;1 Page ~ IV. RESOURCES AND ISSUES BY MANAGEMENT UNIT I•o 35 A. Background Information ..... 35 n 1. Overview .......... 35 k.J. B. Parks Highway Management Unit. .. 36 1. Overview .... 36 o 2. Boundaries ...• 37 3. Land Ownership. 37 D 4. Access ..... 38 5. Existing Land Uses 39 6. Resource Base - Potential Use .. 41 C 7. Land Use Issues ........ 45 C. Willow Sub-Basin Management Unit. 47 C 1 . Overview. ... 47 2. Boundaries .... 48 C 3. Land Ownership. 48 n 4. Access ..... 49 u 5. Existing Land Uses . 51 6. Resource Base -- Potential Use 54 n 7. Land Use Issues ...... 56 ~,._.1 D. Glenn Highway Management Unit. 57 1. Overview .... 57 c 2. Boundaries .. .. 58 3. Land Ownership. 58 [3 4. Access ..... 59 5. Existing Land Uses . 60 g 6. Resource Base - Potential Use. 63 7. Land Use Issues .... 65 un [: ii .,.;j c [ TABLE OF CONTENTS C ( Continued) E Page l:;; .., v. REGIONAL SETTLEMENT PATTERNS 67 A. Background Information. 67 ~] 1. Overview. ..... 67 ,J B. Settlement Categories . 69 C. Settlement Category Definitions 70 o 1. Urban ..... 70 2. Rural Suburban. 73 01, 3. Rural Rustic .. 76 4. Rural Recreation 78 [} 5. Remote Bush .. 79 6. Remote Mountains 80 n 7. Recreation 81 l; D. Future Growth - Impacts and Implications 82 1 . Background Information ....... 82 C 2. Potential Impacts on Existing Settlement Patterns 83 3. Regional Settlement Patterns - Future Issues .. 89 nl ~ g v g., t1 i.J. 1-';'Pi ~ r-, I; riJ ......,i iii ~ "", ~ ~ """~ ~ TABLE OF FIGURES ~. "~J "l _,J ~\ Page . ~ ,,~ :.;) Figure 1 - Planning Area Boundaries Map 3 "'1 J Figure 2 - Management Unit Boundaries Map 7 ~ .) Figure 3 - Population Projections Graph 32 ""'" J Figure 4 - Regional Settlement Patterns Map ............. Pocket ~. ... ~ .." ~ J ,'" .J ~ ~ '1t =t :1 ~ =~;¥ ~ ..Ji '1 ~ ~ ¢,"!:! iv ~ .~ ..i -, -; -., LIST OF TABLES ;oJ ~ Table Page \ ~ 1 Annual Growth Rates - 1970 - 1981. 22 2 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Population Projection Base Case. 26 "\ . 3 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Population Projection High Population ;:J Scenario ........................... 29 ~~ 4 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Population Projection Moderate Senario i 1 (Mid Range) ......................... 31 _..J 5 Department of Natural Resources/Division of Agriculture "'.~ Agricultural Disposal Summary April 1982. 43 j 6 Existing Land Use and Activities ... 72 ~ 7 Existing Public Facilities and Services 74' j "1 -} "'"tI ,,;I ~ J g ~ .J => "! j ~j o--"'! ;) 'l J =i \ ~ ~~-, 3;, cJ IIob"l' ,.t ..J v' ~ I I I I I I I I CHAPTER J I INTRODUCTION I I I I I - 1 - \ ""1' ~ d I. INTRODUCTION '"';! ~ :J c.J '"~ j A. PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE TWO BACKGROUND REPORTS "1 ~3 1. OVERVIEW ~ :} The Matanuska-Susitna Borough's Comprehensive Plan will be used as a tool for decision makers in both private and public sectors of ~ J the Borough in guiding future development. The study will review existing and acquired supportive data and background information .". and make recommendations concerning future land use allocations, J transportation policies and systems, economic development potentials ,. and options, and land management programs. It will address
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