Just Eat Takeaway.com | LSE: JET Online Food Delivery Research Overview
September 2020 Disclaimer
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2 Table of Contents
I. Online Food Delivery Industry Overview 4
II. Just Eat Takeaway.com (‘JET’) Investment Case 14
III. Grubhub (‘GRUB’) Acquisition Case 28
Appendices A. TEV / GMV or TEV / Gross Profit? 39 B. Why is the hybrid model superior to logistics-only? 49 C. How strong is JET’s position in the UK? 73 D. What is necessary to improve GRUB’s position? 76 E. What are the best data sources? 91
3 I. Online Food Delivery Industry Overview
4 Online Food Delivery Started 20 Years Ago With the Marketplace Model
Online Food Delivery Pioneers
Netherlands United Kingdom United States Est. 2000 Est. 2001 Est. 2004 Marketplace Model
5 Network Effects Are Strong
More Consumers
More More Investment Restaurants
More More Consumers Consumers
More Marketing
6 Strong Network Effects Drove Attractive Economics
Historical Online Food Delivery Margins(1)
63%
51%
29%
TKWY JE GRUB Netherlands United Kingdom United States
Note(s): (1) According to company filings, based on FY16 EBITDA and revenue 7 Strong Network Effects Supported Strong Competitive Positions
Historical Relative Size(1)
9x Takeaway.com
8x Grubhub 7x Just Eat 6x
5x
4x
3x
2x Just Eat hungryhouse Eat24 1x
- Netherlands United Kingdom United States
Note(s): (1) According to Google Trends, based on LTM search frequency as of December 2015 8 Logistics-Based Competitors Entered Between 2011 and 2015
Logistics-Based Competitors
Est. 2011 Est. 2012 Est. 2013
Est. 2013 Est. 2015
9 Logistics-Based Competitors Grew Rapidly by Subsidizing Consumers and Introducing New Selection Subsidies
New Selection
QSRs High-End Suburbs
10 Incumbents Chose Different Strategies
Grubhub Just Eat Takeaway.com Modest investment in Late to introduce logistics, Built in-house delivery nationwide delivery followed by outsourced capability across all capability and scattered approach countries Continued focus on Continued focus on Focused on areas with growing EBITDA per growing short-term greatest competitive risk order EBITDA and selection improvement Offered delivery with no fee to create best consumer proposition
Focus on Focus on Short-Term Market Profits Leadership
11 Marketplace Incumbents Have Significant Structural Advantages Over Logistics-Only Competitors
Large existing user base to drive utilization of 1 couriers
2 Better selection from marketplace
3 Lower delivery fees from marketplace
4 Network effects from established scale business
See Appendix – p. 49
12 Track Record of JET Mgmt. Shows Effectiveness of Hybrid Strategy
Google Trends(1)
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-20 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Thuisbezorgd Deliveroo Lieferando Deliveroo Pyszne PizzaPortal Uber Eats Uber Eats Glovo JET Grew Profits While Aggressively Defending Market Leadership
Note(s): (1) According to Google Trends as of 9/21/2020 13 II. JET Investment Case
14 JET Leveraging Hybrid Structural Advantages to Drive Market Leadership in Europe and North America
Note(s): According to company filings 15 JET Is the Clear Market Leader Across 90%+ of Its GMV
% of Market JET Segment GMV(1) Position(2)
United Kingdom 33% #1
Germany 19% #1
Canada 11% #1
The Netherlands 9% #1
Other 28% 90%+ of GMV
Italy 4% #1 from Spain 4% #1 #1 Positions France 4% #3 Australia/New Zealand 4% #2 Israel 3% #1 Belgium 2% #1 Poland 2% #1 Austria 2% #1 Other 4% #1
Note(s): (1) According to company filings and CRC estimates, based on FY19 GMV; (2) According to CRC estimates 16 JET Hybrid Model Allows It to Generate Growth with Profitability
JET Revenue and Profit(1)
€1.9B
€1.6B
€1.1B
€0.8B
€0.6B €0.4B €0.3B €0.2B €0.2B €0.2B €0.1B €0.1B €0.2B €0.1B €0.0B €0.0B
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 LTM 1H20 Revenue EBITDA
Note(s): (1) According to company filings, shown on a pro forma basis for JE / TKWY merger 17 JET Has Huge Growth Potential
JET Growth Opportunity Pop. Penetration(1) Order Frequency(2) TAM(4)
90.0 $592B
70-80% Long-Term Target
~7x
33% 30.0 25% ~2% 15% Penetration 11% 9% ---Benchmarks(3)--- 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 $10B
JET GMV Restaurant Sales(5)
Note(s): (1) According to company filings, calculated as Active Consumers divided by 15+ population (sourced from Eurostat, StatCA, US Census Bureau, Australian Bureau of Statistics, New Zealand Bureau of Statistics and Israel Democracy Institute); (2) According to company filings, represents monthly order frequency, based on orders divided by Active Consumers divided by 12; UK = United Kingdom, CN = China, NL = Netherlands, SK = South Korea, NYC = New York City, ME = Middle East; (3) According to CRC estimates; (4) Pro forma FY19 GMV according to company filings; (5) According to Euromonitor International, based on restaurant sales in JET markets, excludes restaurant sales in Latam markets 18 Simple Math on Growth
15+ Pop x % of Pop x Freq x AOV x Take = Revenue
JET FY19(1) 450M 11% 0.7 per month €20.69 18% €1.6B
JET Potential (2) 450M 35% 2.5 per month €20.69 20% €19.6B % Increase 0% 218% 249% 0% 10% 1,156%
Benchmarks(2) UK ~25% SK ~2 CN ~30% CN ~2 NL ~33% NYC ~2 ME ~3
Path to 10x Increase in Sales
Note(s): (1) According to company filings and CRC estimates; (2) According to CRC estimates; UK = United Kingdom, CN = China, NL = Netherlands, SK = South Korea, NYC = New York City, ME = Middle East 19 JET Can Invest for Growth and Generate Strong Long-Term Profits
Online Food Delivery Margins(1)
50%+ 50%+ 50%+ 50%+ 48% 44% 45%
JET UK (2) JET NL(2) JET DK(3) DHER FI(3) DHER SE(3) DHER TU(3) GRUB NYC(4)
Note(s): (1) Based on EBITDA margins; (2) According to company filings, based on 1H20 results; (3) According to historical company commentary; (4) Based on CRC estimates 20 JET Normalized Margins Likely Over 40%
% of 1H20 Potential (1) (2) (3) JET Segment Revenue(1) Margin(2) Margin(3) Rationale
See NL margin - UK margin should be United Kingdom 32% 44% 50% higher LT due to greater scale
23% achieved in 2Q20 despite significant Canada 21% 19% 25% S&M spend for ~100% 2Q20 order growth
See NL margin - DE margin should be Germany 15% 36% 50% higher LT due to greater scale
48% achieved in 1H20 despite significant S&M The Netherlands 8% 48% 50% spend + upfront investments in logistics
Other 25% 7% 40%
Italy 4% n/a 45% Spain 4% n/a 45% France 4% n/a 30%
Australia/New Zealand 4% n/a 30% Margins forecast based on mix of Belgium 2% n/a 45% logistics and size of market Poland 1% n/a 45% Israel 1% n/a 45% Austria 1% n/a 45% Other 3% n/a 45%
Total JET 100% 21% 42%
Note(s): (1) According to company filings and CRC estimates for individual Other markets; (2) According to company filings, adjustments made for restaurant support initiatives implemented by JE prior to TKWY having control of the business; (3) CRC estimates 21 JET Has Fantastic Founder-Led Management
The Team Track Record(1)
Owns 10% (€1.4B), Cumulative Total Shareholder Return >95% of net worth 450
400
350
300
250 Notable Achievements 200
1 20-year track record in industry 150
(2) 2 Most profitable marketplace globally (NL) 100
3 #3 to #1 in DE, besting DHER(2) 50
Cumulative Cumulative TotalShareholder Return Since IPO (Indexed to 100) - 4 Successful rollout of owned-delivery
5 Acquired largest global marketplace business (JE)(2) JET MSCI World
Note(s): (1) According to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020; (2) According to CRC estimates 22 JET Could Generate ~10x Return Over 10 Years
Current (1) Future(2) Assumption
35% Pop. Penetration GMV €13.1B €97.8B(3) 2.5 Orders per Month Revenue €2.5B €19.6B 20% Take Rate
Normalized EBIT €0.9B €6.8B 35% Margin
Normalized FCF €0.7B €5.3B 22% ETR x P / FCF 19.1x 25.0x(4) Equity Value excl. iFood €13.1B €133.4B (+) Value of iFood Stake €1.0B €1.0B Equity Value €14.1B €134.4B Equity Value / Share €94.88 €904.00 MOIC 9.5x 10-Year IRR 25%
Note(s): (1) According to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020, based on CRC NTM estimates; (2) According to CRC estimates; (3) Assumes 15+ population of 450M and AOV of €20.69; (4) CRC assumption 23 JET Stock Has Dramatically Underperformed Other COVID Beneficiaries
YTD Share Price Performance vs. 2Q20 Revenue Growth
160% 140% 150% 140% 140% 131% 120%
120% 100%
100% 80% 80% 62% 60% 60% 45%
40% Growth Revenue 2Q20
40% YTD Share Price Performance Price Share YTD
20% 15% 20%
- - Shopify Teladoc HelloFresh Amazon Netflix JET (3) YTD Share Price Performance(1) 2Q20 Revenue Growth(2)
Note(s): (1) According to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020, dividend-adjusted; (2) According to company filings; (3) Based on company filings and CRC estimates 24 JET Stock Is Cheap Relative to Other Fast Growers
TEV / CY20e Gross Profit vs. 2Q20 Revenue Growth
90x 120%
80x 76x 100%
70x 80%
60x 60%
50x 40% 41x 38x 40x 20%
30x 24x -
23x 21x 2Q20 Revenue Growth Revenue 2Q20
TEV / CY20e Gross Profit Gross CY20e / TEV 20x (20%) 15x 13x 10x 9x 9x 10x (40%)
- (60%) (3) (3)(4) (3)(4)(5)
TEV / CY20e Gross Profit (1) 2Q20 Revenue Growth(2)
Note(s): (1) Based on S&P Capital IQ (for capitalizations) and Visible Alpha (for estimates) as of 9/24/2020; (2) According to company filings; (3) Gross profit based on CRC estimates; (4) Adjusted for ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn); (5) GRUB gross profit adjusted to align with JET reporting 25 JET Has Never Been Cheaper Despite COVID Tailwind
TEV / NTM Revenue(1)
12x
10x
~5x Rev 8x
6x
4x
2x
- 11/11/16 5/11/17 11/11/17 5/11/18 11/11/18 5/11/19 11/11/19 5/11/20
Note(s): (1) According to Bloomberg as of 9/24/2020, based on historical TKWY TEV / revenue multiple prior to 1/31/20, data from 1/31/20 to 3/27/20 unavailable due to JE / TKWY merger, not adjusted for ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn) 26 Conclusions
1 JET has massive growth potential – revenue could increase 10x if penetration hits 35% and frequency hits 2.5x per month
2 JET has proven profitability and is cheap on normalized FCF ➔ ~19x NTM Normalized FCF
3 JET equity could deliver ~10x return over time given growth and profitability potential
27 III. GRUB Investment Case
28 GRUB Deal Has Strong Rationale
Growth: Double TAM and significantly extend growth 1 runway
2 Profits: Acquire additional profits at attractive terms
Strategy: Significantly increases competition in 3 core market of major global competitor
29 GRUB Deal Doubles TAM at an Attractive Price
JET / JET + GRUB Valuation(1) vs. TAM(2)
$1.2T
2x Increase in TAM
$0.6T
$22.6B $15.3B
JET JET+ GRUB Valuation TAM
Note(s): (1) TEV according to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020, adjusted for JET’s ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn); (2) According to Euromonitor International, includes all markets outside of Latam, based on restaurant spend, which includes sales of food and drinks including VAT, but excluding sales tax 30 GRUB Deal Grows Business at Good Value
GRUB Deal Valuation
Purchase Price(1) $7.3 billion Est. NTM Revenue(2) $1.9 billion TEV / Revenue 3.8x
P / Normalized FCF @ $1.50 per Order (2) 24.8x @ 6% GMV Margin(2) 17.2x @ 25% Revenue Margin(2) 19.1x ~20x Normalized FCF Organic Revenue Growth for 30%+ Rev Growth Prior 3 Year Average 32% 2Q20 41% 2Q20 excl. Commission Caps(3) ~60%
Note(s): (1) Based on TEV at the time of the merger announcement; (2) Based on CRC estimates, assumes 21% effective tax rate; (3) Assumes 60% of $100mm of COVID-19-related support spend was accounted for as a reduction to revenue 31 GRUB Deal Further Impairs Outlook for Loss-Making Competitors
Uber Eats Financials(1)
$1,383M
$759M
$363M
JET US Entry Only
($355M) Adds to Pressure ($601M)
($1,372M)
FY17 FY18 FY19 Adjusted Net Revenue Segment Adjusted EBITDA
Note(s): (1) According to company filings, excludes Corporate G&A and Platform R&D costs, as well as, other items 32 GRUB Core Markets Look Like Europe
1 High population density, urban
2 Significant base of marketplace restaurants
3 Established marketplace incumbent
33 GRUB Stepped Up Investments in 2H19
GRUB EBITDA per Order(1)
Investment in Inventory and $1.75 Loyalty Begins $1.63 $1.57
$1.28 $1.23 $1.09 $0.98
$0.58 $0.45
$0.23
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
Note(s): (1) According to company filings 34 Investments Are Working
Restaurant Inventory(1) Share of New Diner Adds (1)(2)
450,000 30%
400,000 Investment Begins 29% Investment Begins
350,000 28% 27% 300,000 26% 250,000 25% 200,000 24% 150,000 23%
100,000 22%
50,000 21%
- 20%
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData; (2) Includes Tier 1-3 markets only 35 Pro Forma JET + GRUB Could Double in a Year
JET + GRUB Near-Term Potential Upside One Year Current(1) Forward(2) % Change
Capitalization Share Price €94.88 €187.22 97% Market Cap €20.3B €40.1B 97% TEV (3) €19.4B €39.1B 102%
Financials NTM Revenue €4.2B €5.2B 25% NTM Normalized FCF (4) €1.1B €1.4B 25% Margin 35% 35%
Multiples TEV / NTM Revenue 4.6x 7.5x 62% TEV / NTM Normalized FCF 17.0x 27.5x 62%
Organic Revenue Growth Prior 3 Year Average 33% 2019 28% 2Q20 53%
Note(s): (1) According to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/20, based on CRC estimates; (2) According to CRC estimates and assumptions; (3) Adjusted for JET’s ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn); (4) Assumes effective tax rate of 23% 36 JET Can Be Meituan of Western World with US Success
Long-Term Upside Potential
$45T
$575B
$14T
$173B
$23B
Meituan(1)(2) JET + GRUB(1)(2)(3) Valuation GDP
Note(s): (1) TEV according to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020; (2) GDP according to The World Bank; (3) Represents combined GDP of countries in which JET + GRUB operates, including Brazil and Mexico 37 Conclusion – GRUB Deal Is a Masterstroke
1 Growth: Doubles JET addressable market and extends growth runway
2 Profit: Adds to JET revenue, gross profit, and normalized cash flow at attractive price
3 Strategy: Hampers global ambitions and viability of loss-making competitors
38 Appendix A: TEV / GMV or TEV / Gross Profit?
39 TEV / GMV Is Not the Right Valuation Framework
Promotional Activity Varies Chain Order Mix Varies
TKWY vs. DHER – Example(1) JE UK vs. UK Comp – Example(2) Vouchers as % of GMV Chain Orders as % of Total Orders Vouchers as % of Revenue
76% 15%
15% 3% 3%
0%
TKWY DHER JE UK UK Competitor 1
Note(s): (1) According to company filings, based on FY19 results; (2) According to YipitData, based on February 2020 orders 40 “Free Food” GMV May Have Negative Economic Value (1)
1 Companies can boost GMV by paying customers to use their service via vouchers
Former Industry Executive “I jokingly call promotional spend crack. It’s a great way to rent growth. If I put out strong promo on Friday, I know it will help numbers, but the minute I can’t fund that anymore, the business goes away.”
JET Company Commentary “Regarding vouchering, vouchering is what we see all our competitors do. The cohorts on vouchers are 1 order. It's a waste of money, and it will just increase the revenue, and you will all applaud it because the revenue will go up. But it doesn't make any sense…You’re essentially [giving] people free food.”
41 “Free Food” GMV May Have Negative Economic Value (2)
2 Companies agree to deliver food on uneconomic terms – offering extremely low commissions to chain restaurants
Chain Orders as % of Total(1)
48% Former Industry Executive 41% “Chain orders from the larger chains have negative unit 17% economics.”
GRUB Competitor 1 Competitor 2
Note(s): According to YipitData, based on LTM orders as May 2020 42 Businesses That Sell a $1 for 85¢ Tend to Fail
Gross Profit Separates the Wheat from the Chaff – not eyeballs or other volume-based metrics
43 TEV / Gross Profit Measures Real Economic Value
1 Differentiates between food giveaways and real orders
Normalizes for differences in revenue for 2 marketplace and logistics orders
Consistent with valuation methodology for most 3 other growth assets
Gross Profits Are Necessary for Long-Term Profits!
44 Uber Eats Has Been Deeply Unprofitable as It Has Grown
Uber Eats Segment Financials(1)
$1,383M +82%
$759M +109% $363M
($355M) ($601M)
($1,372M)
FY17 FY18 FY19 Adjusted Net Revenue Segment Adjusted EBITDA
Note(s): (1) According to company filings 45 Uber Eats Is Far Less Efficient Than Online Food Delivery Peers
Uber Eats(1) Just Eat Takeaway.com(1)(2)
+28% $1,383M +82% €1,584M Growth Growth $759M €1,227M $363M €917M
($355M) ($601M) 14% €159M €188M €217M (99%) Margin ($1,372M) Margin FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19
Adj. Net Revenue Segment Adj. EBITDA Revenue Adjusted EBITDA
Delivery Hero(1) Grubhub(1) +90% 1,400 €1,230M $1,312M +30% Growth Growth
900 $1,007M €646M €391M $683M 400
(100) 14% $184M $234M $186M (€83M) (€100M) Margin (35%) (600) (€431M) FY17 FY18 FY19 Margin FY17 FY18 FY19
Revenue Segment Adj. EBITDA Revenue Adj. EBITDA
Note(s): (1) According to company filings; (2) Pro forma for 10bis, DHER Germany, and Just Eat transactions 46 Gross Margin Accounting Needs to Be Normalized
Uber Eats’ Gross Profit Build(1)
Gross Bookings (-) Sales Taxes (-) Restaurant Earnings (-) Driver Earnings (-) Driver Incentives (-) Market-Wide Promotions Revenue Uber’s segment-level (-) Excess Driver Incentives (‘EDI’) disclosures stop at (-) Driver Referrals Adjusted Net Revenue, so Adjusted Net Revenue (-) Cost of Sales (excl. EDI) investors mistakenly Credit Card Fees equate Adjusted Net Chargebacks Hosting Revenue with Gross Profit Insurance (-) End-User Discounts, Promos, Refunds, Loyalty Included in S&M (-) Operations and Support Costs Customer Support Restaurant Support Driver Support / Logistics Operations Gross Profit
Note(s): According to company filings and CRC estimates 47 Uber Financials Highlight Questionable Economics of Uber Eats
FY19 Consol. Uber Gross Profit(1) FY19 Segment-Level Profitability(1)
$12,897M ($6,060M) Rides Eats
$10,622M
$262M $7,099M ($2,500M) Eats gross margin likely 21.4% much lower than Margin consolidated gross margin
($1,834M)
$2,071M $2,765M $1,383M
($1,372M) ANR CoR Other Reported Promos O&S True GP & Refunds GP Adjusted Net Revenue Segment Adjusted EBITDA
Uber Eats Could Have Zero or Negative Gross Profit
Note(s): (1) According to company filings and CRC’s definition of gross profit, ANR represents Adjusted Net Revenue, CoR represents Cost of Revenue (excl. Excess Driver Incentives), O&S represents Operations and Support Costs 48 Appendix B: Why is the hybrid model superior to logistics-only?
49 Online Food Delivery Framework
Best Consumer Proposition Wins
50 Online Food Delivery Consumer Proposition
Selection
Fees
User Experience
51 Survey Data Supports This Conclusion
Most Important Features of Takeaway Apps(1) Most important features in deciding Most important features that would which takeaway app to use… encourage consumers to order more… % of Respondents % of Respondents
40% 30%
32%
22% 21%
12%
9% 12% 7% 8% 7%
Restaurant Ease of use Low fees Short Accurate Order Lower fees Better Shorter delivery Higher quality More accurate selection delivery delivery tracking restaurant time of service delivery time times times selection
Note(s): (1) According to RBC consumer survey (May 2018), based on responses from consumers in the UK, results summarized by CRC 52 Hybrid Model Dominates Logistics-Only on Customer Proposition
Hybrid Logistics-Only
Selection
Fees
UX
53 Especially in Markets With Lots of Marketplace Restaurants
Marketplace Restaurants as % of Total(1)(2)
More Marketplace Restaurants More Logistics Restaurants
70% 64% 60% DE statistics 56% depressed due to 53% low penetration of 50% leading marketplace platform
40% 37% 36% 36% 35% 30% 30% 24% 20% 18% 13% 12% 10% 10% 7% 7% 6%
- DE NL UK NYC AU FR US CA % of Limited Service Restaurants* % of Total Restaurants ______*Limited Service Restaurants include restaurants with historically higher delivery demand
Note(s): (1) Marketplace restaurants based on marketplace restaurant count of leading marketplace platform according YipitData and CRC estimates; (2) Limited-Service restaurants and Total Restaurants according to Euromonitor International, Total Restaurants equivalent to sum of Limited-Service Restaurants and Full-Service Restaurants 54 No Coincidence That Incumbent Marketplaces Clearly Lead in Geographies With Lots of Marketplace Restaurants LTM Google Search Frequency Share(1)
More Marketplace Restaurants More Logistics Restaurants
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% - DE NL UK NYC AU FR US CADCA Leading Marketplace Platform Logistics Platform #1 #2 #3
Note(s): (1) According to Google Trends as of 9/21/2020 55 Restaurants Choose Marketplace for Several Reasons
1 Need to service direct orders with no commission
2 Pay lower commissions through marketplace
Labor is fungible (and often cheaper!) – utilize waiters, cooks, 3 and family members for delivery, often paying them “under the table”, potentially below minimum wage
4 Control customer experience and interaction
High population density makes delivery economic for 5 restaurants
56 Marketplace Selection Continues to Increase
Number of Marketplace Restaurants(1)(2) United Kingdom Netherlands NYC Metro Based on JE marketplace restaurants Based on TKWY marketplace restaurants Based on GRUB marketplace restaurants 40k 9k 14k
8k 35k 12k 7k 30k 10k 6k 25k 5k 8k 20k 4k 6k 15k 3k 4k 10k 2k 2k 5k 1k
- - -
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData as of July 2020; (2) JE and TKWY marketplace restaurant counts based on YipiData and CRC estimates 57 Logistics-Only Competitors Acknowledge Superiority of Hybrid
Deliveroo, June 2018
Uber Eats, February 2019
58 But Hybrid Initiatives Have Failed to Gain Traction
United Kingdom Competitor 1 Executive, May 2020 “[Competitor 1] launched Marketplace+ in the UK in mid-2018, but over 2 years, marketplace orders have reached just ~10% of [Competitor 1]’s orders.”
Former Competitor 2 Executive, March 2020 “BYOC represents a relatively small number of restaurants in the UK, and I’d guess a low-single- digit percentage of orders.” [Note: [Competitor 2] BYOC orders actually include orders delivered by [Competitor 2]]
Netherlands Former Competitor 1 Executive, September 2020 “[Competitor 1] launched BYOC in the Netherlands in early 2019, but it hasn’t gone anywhere.”
United States / New York Former Competitor 1 Executive, June 2020 “[Competitor 1] hasn’t really made any progress in developing a marketplace offering.”
59 Data Shows Incumbents Have Dramatically Better Hybrid Proposition
Number of Marketplace Restaurants(1)(2) United Kingdom Netherlands NYC Metro
40k 9k 14k 8k 35k 12k 30k 7k 10k 6k 25k 5k 8k 20k 4k 6k 15k 3k 4k 10k 2k 5k 1k 2k
- - -
Jan-19 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-18 Jan-20
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19
Sep-18 Sep-19
May-18 May-19 May-20 May-18 May-19 May-20
May-18 May-19 May-20 JE Competitor 1 TKWY Competitor 1 GRUB Comp 1 Comp 2
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData as of July 2020; (2) JE and TKWY marketplace restaurant counts based on YipiData figures and CRC estimates 60 Why New Entrants Fail to Build Marketplace
1 Restaurants have limited driver and cook capacity
2 Deep dependence on relationship with #1 player
Focus on driving direct orders vs. additional 3 aggregator orders
Operational complexity of operating multiple 4 platforms
61 Competitors Acknowledge Difficulty of Competing
UK Competitor 1 Executive, May 2020
“There’s a real challenge in scaling up the marketplace business because of Just Eat’s position, and the challenge is more on the consumer side than on the restaurant side.
The challenge we have at [UK Competitor 1] is that Just Eat owns the towns and cities where marketplace restaurants are more prevalent. The only way to expand in these areas is to do it in a really aggressive, unsustainable way – use heavy promotions, spend a ton on marketing, etc.
A consumer has been ordering from the same restaurant on Just Eat for the past 10 years, they’re likely to go back to Just Eat after using a voucher from [UK Competitor 1].”
62 Network Effects Create Sustainably Strong Business
More Consumers
More More Investment Restaurants
More More Consumers Consumers
More Marketing
But only when you offer the best selection…
1 JE didn’t offer the best selection in Australia / New Zealand, France, and Central London
2 GRUB (and Uber Eats) didn’t offer the best selection outside of core Tier 1 markets in the US
63 Mature Markets Are Harder to Disrupt
Online Food Delivery Math Mature Market (e.g. UK) Immature Market (e.g. US)
Example with 20% Initial Market Growth(1) Example with 50% Initial Market Growth(1) (w/ Equal Split of Net Adds) (w/ 40/60 Split of Net Adds in Favor of Challenger)
350 New 700 New Customers Customers 300 600
250 500 125 325 200 180 400 450 New 150 Customers 300 New 20 100 35 200 Customers
25 175
NumberofCustomers NumberofCustomers 50 55 275 50 100 75 85 25 75 95 - - t t + 1 t + 10 t t + 1 t + 10
Leader Challenger Leader Challenger
Leader Remains Much Larger Challenger Overtakes Leader After 10 Years After 10 Years
Note(s): (1) According to CRC estimates 64 Online Food Delivery Math Is Supported by High Customer Retention
Customer Stickiness Means Competition is Focused on New Users, Which Are Harder to Find in Mature Markets
Note(s): According to TKWY February 2020 investor presentation 65 Hungryhouse Case Study
Former Just Eat Executive, January 2019
“Hungryhouse couldn’t compete because we had far more restaurants and better brand awareness. Even though they spent a lot of money on vouchering and free commissions, they still weren’t able to combat the network effects we had.
People maybe placed one order with them because of a voucher, but then they went back to Just Eat because the selection was better.
It’s hard to get the flywheel going, particularly on the demand side. A £5 voucher doesn’t work. Eventually the restaurants you’ve signed wonder why they should bother with another platform because they’re not getting many orders.”
66 Dozens of Examples of Failed Attempts to Disrupt Strong Incumbents
Company Countries Date of Exit Dine In UK Nov-15 Valk Fleet UK Apr-16 Delivery Cube UK Apr-16 Take Eat Easy BE, FR, UK Jul-16 Just Eat BE, LU, NL Aug-16 Takeaway.com UK Aug-16 Pronto UK Sep-16 Jinn UK Oct-17 Takeaway.com FR Feb-18 Hungryhouse UK Feb-18 foodora AU, FR, IT, NL Aug-18 Delivery Hero BR Sep-18 Amazon Restaurants UK Nov-18 Uber Eats AT Feb-19 foodora AT Feb-19 Amazon Restaurants US Jun-19 Deliveroo DE Aug-19 Glovo EG, PR, TU, UY Jan-20 foodora CA Apr-20 Uber Eats CZ, EG, HN, RO, SB, UA, UY May-20
67 Logistics Grew Faster In the Past Five Years by Expanding the Market
Emergence of Logistics
Marketplace Only
68 Logistics Opened Untapped Demand
Marketplace Takeaway / self-delivery restaurants
vs.
Logistics Chains/QSRs & high-end restaurants
69 Incumbents Chose Different Strategies
Grubhub Just Eat Takeaway.com Modest investment in Late to introduce logistics, Built in-house delivery nationwide delivery followed by outsourced capability across all capability and scattered approach countries Continued focus on Continued focus on Focused on areas with growing EBITDA per growing short-term greatest competitive risk order EBITDA and selection improvement Offered delivery with no fee to create best consumer proposition
Focus on Focus on Short-Term Market Profits Leadership
70 Takeaway.com Now Applying Its Strategy to Just Eat
1 Offer the best consumer proposition
2 Focus on market leadership ➔ LT profit will come
Run the business like an owner – focus on details of 3 execution
Same Formula Planned for Grubhub
71 Conclusions
1 Best consumer proposition wins
2 Hybrid model offers best consumer proposition
JET has proven strategy for winning with hybrid 3 model
72 Appendix C: How strong is JET’s position in the UK?
73 Just Eat Starting From Very Strong Position in the UK
UK Order Market Share(1) Google Trends Share(1) Email Receipt Share(1)(2)
66% 64% 66%
57%
25% 21% 17% 18% 19% 18% 15% 13%
Overall Ex-London Overall Ex-London Just Eat Deliveroo Uber Eats Just Eat Deliveroo Uber Eats
Note(s): (1) According to Google Trends, based on LTM search frequency as of 9/21/20; (2) According to YipitData, based on LTM orders through July 2020 74 Clear Path to Even Stronger Market Position in the UK
Competitor Major Exposure Solution
Aggressively expand London selection (1) London Reduce fees Increase marketing
Rollout MCD across UK London(1) Aggressively expand London selection (2) + McDonald’s Reduce fees Increase marketing
Dim Future Prospects for Deliveroo and Uber Eats in the UK
Note(s): (1) According to CRC discussions with former executives; (2) According to YipitData 75 Appendix D: What is necessary to improve GRUB’s position in the US?
76 Negative Initial Market Reaction to GRUB Deal
JET Share Price(1)
€105 Before deal announcement 100
95 -18% 1-Week Return 90
85
80
75
Note(s): (1) According to S&P Capital IQ 77 JET Valuation Now Seems to Embed Negative Value for GRUB
JET Value Loss Historical Current TEV / TEV / Value Revenue Revenue Lost
NTM Revenue(1) €4.2B €4.2B €4.2B x TEV / Revenue(2) 8.0x 4.6x (3.4x) TEV €33.4B €19.4B (€14.0)B (-) Net Debt and Other (3) 1.0 1.0 - Market Cap(4) €34.3B €20.3B (€14.0)B
Note(s): (1) According to CRC estimates, revenue for JET + GRUB; (2) According to Bloomberg, unadjusted for ownership stake in iFood; (3) Includes value associated with ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn); (4) According to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/24/2020 78 GRUB Has a Long History of Profitable Growth
GRUB Summary Financials(1)
$1,312M
$1,007M
$683M
$493M
$362M
$254M $234M $170M $184M $186M $119M $144M $79M $104M $10M $40M
FY12PF (2) FY13PF (2) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Revenue Adjusted EBITDA
Note(s): (1) According to company filings; (2) Pro forma for Grubhub / Seamless merger 79 GRUB Seems to Be Loathed by Investors Nevertheless
Persistently High Short Interest Depressed Valuation vs. Peers
GRUB Share Price and Short Interest Ratio(1) TEV / CY20e GP(1)(2) vs. 1H20 Org Rev Growth(3) 160 35% 35x 120% 32x 30x 140 100% 30% 30x
80% 120 25% 25x 60% 100 21x 20% 19x 20x 19x 40% 80 16x 20% 15% 15x 14x
60 Short Short Interest Ratio
Share Share Price ($ share) per - TEV / CY20e TEV / GrossCY20e Profit 10% 10x 9x 40 8x 1H20 Organic Revenue Growth (20%)
5% 20 5x (40%)
- - - (60%) (4)(5) (4)(5)(6)
Short Interest Ratio Share Price
Note(s): (1) Share price and capitalizations according to S&P Capital IQ as of 9/4/2020, (2) Estimates according to Visible Alpha as of 9/4/2020; (3) According to company filings; (4) TEV adjusted for ownership stake in iFood (valued at €1bn); (5) Gross profit based on CRC estimates, (6) Gross profit adjusted to align with JET reporting 80 The Reason Is Clear – Historical Share Loss
Note(s): According to Second Measure 81 GRUB Has Lost Share for Three Key Reasons
GRUB grew profits while competitors maximized 1 investments
GRUB failed to invest in expanding selection (e.g. late 2 to add chains, late to add non-partnered restaurants)
3 GRUB failed to invest in expanding coverage (e.g. late to expand to greenfield suburban areas)
82 GRUB Had A Selection Disadvantage Until Recently
Number of Restaurants(1)
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
GRUB Competitor 1 Competitor 2 Competitor 3
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData 83 GRUB Has Been Far Less Promotional Historically
Promotional Activity(1) Free Delivery Promos Food Discount Promos
Free Delivery Orders as % of Total Discounted Orders as % of Total 90% 35%
80% 30% 70% 25% 60%
50% 20%
40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10%
- -
GRUB - MD Only Competitor 1 Competitor 2 GRUB - MD Only Competitor 1 Competitor 2
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData, ‘GRUB - MD Only’ only includes GRUB’s owned-delivery orders 84 None of These Drivers of Share Loss Are Permanent
Problem Solution
Profit Invest Aggressively
Add Chains Selection Add Non-Partnered Restaurants
Attack Suburbs Coverage Especially Around Core Markets
85 GRUB Actually Has Structural Competitive Advantages in Core Markets
Hybrid Marketplace + Logistics
Logistics
Logistics
86 Hybrid Model Offers Better Selection, Pricing, and Profit
Marketplace offers restaurants with proven Selection consumer demand
Marketplace delivery fees are lower Pricing
Marketplace orders have established profitability Profit
87 GRUB Has Two Distinct Segments of Its Business
Core Leading Markets Other Markets
New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas-Forth Worth Philadelphia Houston Boston Miami
High Margin Lower Margin #1 Position #2/3 Position ~2/3 of Orders ~1/3 of Orders
Note(s): According to CRC estimates 88 Food Delivery Is Local, GRUB Has Strong Positions in Its Core Geographies LTM Google Trends Share in Key Cities
53%
40% 38% 38%
30% 28% 29% 24% 24% 22% 20% 17%
10% 10% 10% 7%
New York Chicago Philadelphia Boston Grubhub DoorDash Uber Eats Postmates
Note(s): Based on Google Trends city-level data over the past 12 months (6/10/20) 89 GRUB Has the Best Consumer Proposition In Its Core Markets
Average Delivery Fee(1) Marketplace Restaurants(1)
NY Metro – Example NY Metro – Example
$6.82 11,449
$4.82 $4.53
N/A
$1.63 1,976
86 - -
GRUB Competitor Competitor Competitor Competitor GRUB Competitor Competitor Competitor Competitor 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Note(s): (1) According to YipitData as of February 2020 90 Appendix E: What are the best data sources?
91 Many Data Sources for Tracking Online Food Delivery
92 Results Often Conflict
Google Trends Share(1) App DAU Share(2)
#1 Position 53% 51%
#2 Position 33% 29%
18% 16%
SkipTheDishes Uber Eats DoorDash SkipTheDishes Uber Eats DoorDash
Note(s): (1) According to Google Trends as of 9/21/2020, based on YTD 2020 search frequency; (2) According to app data vendor as of 9/21/2020, based on YTD 2020 daily active users 93 Common Data Reliability Issues
1 App vs. desktop measurement
2 Small or unrepresentative sample
3 Ride-sharing or grocery vs. restaurant delivery
Limited history or unproven correlation to business 4 metrics
94 We Have Found Google Trends to Be One of the Most Reliable Sources
1 Proven utility across all markets
2 Massive, ubiquitous sample
3 Robust historical data
4 Consistent measurement across geographies
5 Natural correlation to brand strength and gross adds
95 Disclaimer
The author of this deck, Cat Rock Capital Management LP (“Cat Rock Capital”), is a private fund manager. This deck, and its content, distribution and use, is subject to the terms specified at www.JustEatDoesDeliver.com. At the time of publication this deck, funds and accounts managed by Cat Rock Capital are is long 6.8 million shares of Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (LSE: JET) (AMS: TKWY) (the “Company”). It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Cat Rock Capital to modify this economic interest at any time or from time to time. This may include a decision to sell all or a portion of its holdings of such securities in open market transactions or otherwise (including via short sales), purchase additional such securities (in open market or privately negotiated transactions or otherwise) or trade in options, puts, calls or other derivative instruments relating to such securities. Cat Rock Capital also reserves the right to take any actions with respect to its investment in the Company as it may deem appropriate, including, but not limited to, communication with the board of directors, management and other investors. Cat Rock Capital is publishing this deck solely for the information of other shareholders in the Company. This deck is not intended to be and does not constitute or contain any investment recommendation as defined by Regulation (EU) No 596/2014. No information in this deck should be construed as recommending or suggesting an investment strategy. Nothing in this deck or in any related materials is a statement of or indicates or implies any specific or probable value outcome in any particular circumstance. 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There is no assurance or guarantee with respect to the prices at which any securities of the Company, Takeaway or any other company will trade, and such securities may not trade at prices that may be implied herein. Any estimates, projections or potential impact of the opportunities identified by Cat Rock Capital herein are based on assumptions that Cat Rock Capital believes to be reasonable as of the date hereof, but there can be no assurance or guarantee that actual results or performance will not differ, and such differences may be material and adverse. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by Cat Rock Capital or any of its officers, employees or agents as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects or returns contained herein. 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In relation to the United Kingdom, this deck is directed only at, (i) investment professionals specified in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 as amended (the “Order”), (ii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with the issue or sale of any securities of the Company or any member of its group may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “Permitted Recipients”). Persons who are not Permitted Recipients must not act or rely on the information contained in this deck. This deck does not address the merits of the transaction from the point of view of stockholders of Grubhub Inc.. 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