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SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH SEPTEMBER 2006 WARNING EMERGENCY

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SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH SEPTEMBER 2006 WARNING EMERGENCY ALERT LEVEL: SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH WARNING SEPTEMBER 2006 EMERGENCY Summary Looking at the situation in September, the 2006/07 growing season is making relatively good progress thanks to good climatic conditions, with adequate rainfall and with plant health conditions relatively stable. On the whole, pasture resources and animal watering conditions around the country are satisfactory. Grain markets are reporting low supplies. Grain prices are up on urban markets as well as in rural areas. Looking ahead, the downward trend in prices should begin over the next few months with the imminent arrival of fresh produce on markets around the country. Seasonal calendar DRY SEASON: Seasonal migration by livestock, vegetable-growing season, off-season crops, flood-recession crops, Start of the 2006/2007 growing season mass rural-urban migration Cleanup – Weeding December 05 January 06 February 06 March 06 April 06 May 06 June 06 July 06 August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06 Harvest Land Preparation Planting Harvest Hazards summary • Retail prices for locally grown grain crops have been rising on markets in urban areas. • The condition of pasture resources has visibly improved, except in the corridor between Tambacounda and Goudiry, due to the rainfall deficit in that area. Food security conditions The food situation varies according to the area in question. In the south, conditions are fairly good and local residents have been able to take advantage of recent harvests of fruit such as mangoes, which could have been an important source of income if not for the parasite infestation causing heavy damage to this year’s crop. There has been a visible improvement in food security conditions in other parts of the country since last month because of early harvests of green maize crops, which helped communities improve their food situation. Because of good rainfall in all parts of the country, which paved the way for good pasture production, the situation of all stock animals has greatly improved. FEWS NET/Senegal Tel : +221 820 18 60 Address : BP29955 Aéroport FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax : + 221 820 18 65 L.S.Senghor Code Postal 14542 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Dakar Senegal SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2006 Progress of the 2006-2007 growing season Rainfall conditions, which have been showing an improvement since the beginning of August, have now normalized at most rainfall gauging stations monitored by FEWS NET. The stations reporting rainfall surpluses (Ziguinchor, Kaolack, Fatick, Saint Louis) are all in the western part of the country. Those reporting rainfall deficits (Tambacounda, Goudiry, Saraya) all lie in the east. In the north, only the Saint Louis and Podor stations are showing above-normal rainfall, with cumulative rainfall totals of over 290 mm fully meeting crop water requirements. Rainfall conditions in Louga and Ranérou are normal, with rainfall rates at Matam still running below-normal. Rainfall conditions in the central part of the country are satisfactory, with cumulative rainfall totals of over 400 mm at all gauging stations with the exception of Thiés. The Kaolack and Fatick regions have been getting good, relatively regular rainfall, which is keeping soil water reserves high. The southeast is still not getting enough rain, in contrast to conditions in the southwest (in the Kolda and Ziguinchor regions) where there have been copious amounts of rainfall since the beginning of August, with cumulative rainfall totals of over 175 mm for just the second dekad of the month. Short-cycle varieties of crops currently in the maturation stage of their growth cycle could produce good yields. The 120-day varieties need the rains to continue through the middle of October. Season-long cumulative rainfall totals as of September 20th range from 147.5 mm in Matam to 1,255.8 mm in Ziguinchor. Streamflow conditions A look at streamflow conditions for the second dekad of September of this year shows the presence of flood waves on a number of waterways around the country. The level of the Senegal River at the Bakel station has been fluctuating, while water levels at the Matam and Podor stations are rising. In all three cases, reported gauge heights are down from the same time last year. The flood level at the Kidira station on the Falémé was low, with a mean ten-day flow rate of 232 cubic meters per second (cms), compared with a figure of 359 cms at the same time last year. Figure 1: Crop water requirement satisfaction index for The water level at the Kédougou station on the Gambia the second dekad of September River has been up and down, with a mean ten-day flow rate of 340 cms compared with a figure of 256 cms at the same time last year. There was a large flood wave on the Casamance River at Kolda, peaking at 294 cm compared with last year’s figure of 241 cm. Effect of rainfall conditions on crops On the whole, crop growth and development is going well thanks to good rainfall conditions throughout the month of September, especially in the face of the good soil water reserves found in the western reaches of the country in particular (Figure 1). In the north, crop water requirement satisfaction indexes Graphic by FEWS NET; Source of data: NOAA/USGS range from 60 to 80 percent from Podor to Matam and between Tambacounda and Goudiry. 2 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2006 With the September rains in Ziguinchor, in the south, water levels in the valleys have risen, allowing farmers to speed up the pace of their work in area rice fields. A look at the stage of development of crops around the country shows extremely mixed results, depending on corresponding planting dates. Millet crops are in the height growth - flowering – heading – early maturation stages; Sorghum crops are in the height growth - flowering – heading stages; Maize crops are in the height growth - flowering – heading – green harvesting stages; Rice crops are in the plantlet – height growth stages; Groundnut crops are in the flowering – gynophore formation – pod formation – green harvesting stages; Cotton crops are in the branching – flowering – capsule formation stages; Cowpea crops are in the flowering – pod formation – green harvesting stages Plant health conditions An examination of plant health conditions reveals the presence of a second generation of grasshoppers (Oeudaleus senegalensis) with newly hatched larvae in Gossas and Fatick departments. Similar conditions are being reported in Dagana and Podor departments, affecting irrigated rice crops. There are reports of damage by flower-eating insects and beetles in particular in millet-producing areas of the Diourbel, Fatick and Kaolack regions and Linguère department. There have been sightings of large concentrations of grain-eating birds (Quelea quelea) in their regular breeding grounds in the Senegal River Valley and Figure 2: Vegetation index for the second dekad of Delta areas (in border-irrigated sugar cane fields and September cattail grasses (Typha australis) growing along the banks of the river). Conditions in stock-raising areas In general, there is abundant, well-developed vegetation in all parts of the country, as illustrated by Figure 2. However, the progress of new vegetative growth is lagging behind in the northern reaches of the Tambacounda region due to the rainfall deficit in that area, which is the main destination for migratory animal herds from northern Senegal. Livestock are being watered at temporary lakes and ponds, whose water levels are still relatively high, as well as at impounding reservoirs. Milk production is plentiful. Graphic by FEWS NET; Source of data: NOAA/USGS Markets Market supplies of locally grown grain crops remain low as the lean period draws to an end. Since the middle of the month, harvest of green maize and cowpea crops have added to supplies of imported grain (rice and maize), which have been making up for the limited supplies of local crops. The September price of millet on the Kaolack market, which is the main provisioning market for urban areas, was at 158 CFAF/kg compared with 167 CFAF in August (Figure 3). 3 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2006 The Dakar, Kolda, Saint-Louis and Figure 3: Trends in average retail prices for millet in regional capitals (as Ziguinchor markets are reporting similar of September 20, 2006) price trends, while prices on the MOYENNE 2001-2005 Sep-05 Aug-06 Sep-06 Diourbel, Fatick, Louga and Thiès 250 markets have come down. September prices for millet on urban 200 markets in Fatick, Louga and Dakar were running below the five-year average. 150 Both farm-gate and retail prices for September on most rural markets were down from the month of August (Figure 100 4). Prix du mil au au détail (FCFA/kg) du mil Prix Retail/consumer prices for millet on this 50 group of rural markets ranged from 125 CFAF/kg in Passy to 242 CFAF/kg in Ourossogui. 0 DAKAR DIOURBEL FATICK KAOLACK KOLDA LOUGA ST.LOUIS TAMBA THIES ZIGUINCHOR The Passy market showed the largest Source of data: CSA (Food Security Commission) / SIM (Market Information price differentials, with September prices System); Graphic by FEWS NET down by more than 4 percent from August and by over 30 percent from Figure 4: Trends in average retail prices for millet on rural markets (as of September of last year and running 11 September 20, 2006) percent below the average for 2001- MOYENNE 2001-2005 SEPTEMBRE 2005 AOUT 2006 SEPTEMBRE 2006 2005. 275 250 Posted prices on all rural markets were 225 down from September of last year. 200 175 150 125 100 75 Prix Moyen du Mil au Détail (F/kg) 50 25 0 BAMBEY GOUILLE MPAL OUROSSOGUI PASSY POROKHANE BIGNONA MBEUTH Source: CSA / SIM; Graphic by FEWS NET 4.
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