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Friend Or Foe? a Special Report on China’S Place in the World December 4Th 2010

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Friend Or Foe? a Special Report on China’S Place in the World December 4Th 2010 Friend or foe? A special report on China’s place in the world December 4th 2010 ChinaCOV.indd 1 23/11/2010 15:55 The Economist December 4th 2010 A special report on China’s place in the world 1 Brushwood and gall Also in this section The fourth modernisation China is becoming a military force to reckon with in the western Pacic. How should America respond? Page 4 Less biding and hiding China is becoming more nationalistic and more assertive. How will other countries react? Page 6 In the balance Their wealth depends on China, their security on America. Which way should Asian countries face? Page 9 Friends, or else Living with China’s rise will test America’s diplomacy as never before. Page 11 China insists that its growing military and diplomatic clout pose no Strategic reassurance threat. The rest of the world, and particularly America, is not so sure, Many things could worsen relations between says Edward Carr China and America. Here are ten ways to N 492BC, at the end of the Spring and years of colonial humiliation. make them better. Page 13 IAutumn period in Chinese history, Taken like that, the parable of Goujian Goujian, the king of Yue in modern Zhe• sums up what some people nd alarming jiang, was taken prisoner after a disastrous about China’s rise as a superpower today. campaign against King Fuchai, his neigh• Ever since Deng Xiaoping set about re• bour to the north. Goujian was put to work forming the economy in 1978, China has in the royal stables where he bore his cap• talked peace. Still militarily and economi• tivity with such dignity that he gradually cally too weak to challenge America, it has won Fuchai’s respect. After a few years Fu• concentrated on getting richer. Even as Chi• chai let him return home as his vassal. na has grown in power and rebuilt its Goujian never forgot his humiliation. armed forces, the West and Japan have run He slept on brushwood and hung a gall up debts and sold it their technology. Chi• bladder in his room, licking it daily to feed na has been patient, but the day when it his appetite for revenge. Yue appeared loy• can once again start to impose its will is al, but its gifts of craftsmen and timber drawing near. tempted Fuchai to build palaces and tow• However, Goujian’s story has another ers even though the extravagance en• reading, too. Paul Cohen, a Harvard schol• snared him in debt. Goujian distracted him ar who has written about the king, ex• with Yue’s most beautiful women, bribed plains that the Chinese today see him as an his ocials and bought enough grain to example of perseverance and dedication. empty his granaries. Meanwhile, as Fu• Students are told that if they want to suc• Acknowledgments chai’s kingdom declined, Yue grew rich ceed they must be like King Goujian, sleep• Many people helped with this special report. The author and raised a new army. ing on brushwood and tasting gallthat would especially like to mention: Rob Ayson, Chen Zhimin, Jae Ho Chung, Malcolm Cook, Admiral William Fallon, Kim Goujian bided his time for eight long great accomplishments come only with Fam, Andrew Ferrier, Charles Finny, Charles Freeman, Paul years. By 482BC, condent of his superior• sacrice and unyielding purpose. This Gebhard, Richard Grant, Andrew Krepinevich, Michael ity, he set o north with almost 50,000 Goujian represents self•improvement and L’Estrange, Ma Jiali, Jim McGinlay, Russell Moses, Craggy Ridge, Admiral Gary Roughead, David warriors. Over several campaigns they put dedication, not revenge. Shambaugh, Robert Sutter, Hitoshi Tanaka, Tomohiko Fuchai and his kingdom to the sword. Which Goujian will 21st•century China Taniguchi, Jitsuro Terashima, William Tow, General The king who slept on brushwood and follow? Will it broadly t in with the West• Noboru Yamaguchi and Zhu Feng. tasted gall is as familiar to Chinese as King ern world, as a place where people want A list of sources is at Alfred and his cakes are to Britons, or nothing more than a chance to succeed Economist.com/specialreports George Washington and the cherry tree are and enjoy the rewards of their hard work? to Americans. In the early 20th century he Or, as its wealth and power begin to over• An audio interview with the author is at became a symbol of resistance against the shadow all but the United States, will Chi• Economist.com/audiovideo/specialreports treaty ports, foreign concessions and the na become a threatan angry country set 1 2 A special report on China’s place in the world The Economist December 4th 2010 2 on avenging past wrongs and forcing oth• ers to bend to its will? China’s choice of role, says Jim Steinberg, America’s deputy secretary of state, is the great question of our time. The peace and prosperity of the world depends on which path it takes. Some people argue that China is now too enmeshed in globalisation to put the world economy in jeopardy through war or coercion. Trade has brought prosperity. China buys raw materials and compo• nents from abroad and sells its wares in foreign markets. It holds $2.6 trillion of for• eign•exchange reserves. Why should it pull down the system that has served it so well? But that is too sanguine. In the past inte• gration has sometimes gone before cona• gration. Europe went up in ames in 1914 even though Germany was Britain’s sec• ond•largest export market and Britain was Germany’s largest. Japan got rich and fell in with the European powers before it bru• tally set about colonising Asia. Others go to the opposite extreme, argu• empires. The insight of power•transition dealing with China. American companies ing that China and America are con• theory is that satised powers, such as enjoyed decent access to Chinese markets. demned to be enemies. Ever since Sparta post•war Germany and Japan, do not chal• China lent the American government huge led the Peloponnesian League against Ath• lenge the world order when they rise. But amounts of money. ens, they say, declining powers have failed dissatised ones, such as pre•war Ger• This suited China, which concluded to give way fast enough to satisfy rising many and Japan, conclude that the system long ago that the best way to build its powers. As China’s economic and military shaped and maintained by the incumbent comprehensive national power was strength increase, so will its sense of enti• powers is rigged against them. In the anar• through economic growth. According to its tlement and its ambition. In the end pa• chic arena of geopolitics they believe that analysis, articulated in a series of white pa• tience will run out, because America will they will be denied what is rightfully theirs pers and speeches in the late 1990s and ear• not willingly surrender leadership. unless they enforce their claim. ly 2000s, the country needed a New Secu• So for most of the past decade the two rity Concept. Growth demanded stability, Reasons for optimism great powers edged towards what David which in turn required that China’s neigh• But that is too bleak. China clings to its ter• Lampton, a professor at Johns Hopkins bours did not feel threatened. ritorial claimsover Taiwan, the South School of Advanced International Studies, To reassure them, China started to join China Sea, various islands and with India. calls a double wager. China would broadly the international organisations it had once Yet, unlike the great powers before 1945, fall in with America’s post•war order, bet• shunned. As well as earning it credentials China is not looking for new colonies. And ting that the rest of the world, eager for Chi• as a good citizen, this was also a safe way to unlike the Soviet Union, China does not na’s help and its markets, would allow it to counter American inuence. China led the have an ideology to export. In fact, Ameri• grow richer and more powerful. America six•party talks designed to curb North Ko• ca’s liberal idealism is far more potent than would not seek to prevent this rise, betting rea’s nuclear programme. The government token Communism, warmed•up Confu• that prosperity would eventually turn Chi• signed the Comprehensive Test•Ban Treaty cianism or anything else that China has to na into one of the system’s supportersa and by and large stopped proliferating o er. When two countries have nuclear responsible stakeholder in the language weapons (though proliferation by rogue weapons, a war may not be worth ghting. of Robert Zoellick, a deputy secretary of Chinese companies continued). It sent In the real world the dealings between state under George Bush junior and now people on UN peacekeeping operations, rising and declining powers are not president of the World Bank. supplying more of them than any other straightforward. Twice Britain feared that For much of the past decade, barring permanent member of the security coun• continental Europe would be dominated the odd ti , the wager worked. Before 2001 cil or any NATO country. by an expansionary Germany and twice it China and America fell out over Taiwan, Inevitably, there were still disputes and went to war. Yet when America took world the American bombing of China’s embas• di erences. But diplomats, policymakers leadership from Britain, the two remained sy in Belgrade and a fatal mid•air collision and academics allowed themselves to be• constant allies. After the second world war between an American EP3 spy plane and a lieve that, in the nuclear age, China might Japan and Germany rose from the ashes to Chinese ghter.
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