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Indonesia Country Report Indonesia Country Report January 2013 Cover Photo Credit: Farmer, Indonesia: Flickr photo available at http://www.flickr.com/photos/jedavillabali/5014188760/sizes/l/in/photostream/ Tractor, Vietnam: Flickr photo available at http://www.flickr.com/photos/feserc/3307001230/ Market, Philippines: Flickr photo available at www.flickr.com/photos/squeezyboy/2579543345/ AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION & FOOD SECURITY 2040 ASEAN REGION WITH A FOCUS ON VIETNAM, INDONESIA, AND PHILIPPINES INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes v List of Abbreviations ix Acknowledgments xi Executive Summary xiii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Macroeconomic Performance of Indonesia 3 Chapter 3. Agricultural Sector Performance 1980–2011 11 Chapter 4. Key Issues in the Agricultural Sector 51 Chapter 5. Agriculture Sector Vision 2040: Strategies to Achieve It 75 Annex 1—Centennial Group Model 81 Annex 2—Fisheries Outlook 2010–2040 95 Annex 3—Livestock 129 Annex 4—Research and Development 145 Annex 5—Climate Change 153 Bibliography 159 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES Figures Chapter 2 Figure 2.1: Indonesia: GDP per capita Figure 2.2: Indonesia: GDP Figure 2.3: Indonesia: TFP Growth Rate Chapter 3 Figure 3.1: Livestock meat production (1000 ton) Figure 3.2: Broiler Meat Production (1000 ton) Figure 3.3: Number of imported broilers Annex 1 Figure A1.1: Equilibrium relationship and movement over time Figure A1.2: Population distribution by income (blue) and egg consumption: Indonesia 2010 Figure A1.3: Population distribution by income (blue) and egg consumption: Indonesia 2040 (opt.) Annex 3 Figure A3.1: total animal feed production (million tons) Figure A3.2: distribution of 2011 feed production over species and types of farms Figure A3.3: Broiler Meat Production Figure A3.4: Broiler Meat Production Figure A3.5: Layer Meat Production (1000 ton) Figure A3.6: Overall Chicken Meat Production and Relative Shares over time of each sector Figure A3.7: Overall egg production and relative share of commercial and informal sectors Figure A3.8: Pork Production (1000 ton) Figure A3.9: Milk production in Indonesia (1000 ton) Figure A3.10: total meat production from cattle and buffalo/carabao (1000 ton) Figure A3.11: Goat and Sheep Meat Production (1000 ton) Tables Chapter 2 Table 2.1: Key Economic Data 1980–2011 Table 2.2: Key Social Data 1980–2011 Table 2.3: Urban Population Growth 1980–2006 Table 2.4: Yearly Consumption Range (2010 PPP $) Table 2.5: Indonesia Macro Economic Scenarios AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION & FOOD SECURITY 2040—INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT Chapter 3 Table 3.1: Crop Production on Cultivated Lands Table 3.2: Evolution of the value of total agriculture production and food production Table 3.3: Index of per capita production Table 3.4: Sources of growth during episodes of agricultural development Table 3.5: Paddy Production 2007–2011 Table 3.6: Recent Crop Developments Table 3.7: Harvested Area of Paddy (hectares) by Province, 2007–2011 Table 3.8: Harvested Area of Corn (hectares) by Province, 2007–2011 Table 3.9: Status of Estate Crops, 2010 Table 3.10: Production of key crops in VIP countries Table 3.11: Food Budget Shares for 9 Countries (%) Table 3.12: Estimated Areas and Yields of Palm Oil (2011) Table 3.13: Historical Oil Palm Areas Table 3.14: Exports of Cocoa Products Table 3.15: Cocoa Support Program Table 3.16: Natural Rubber Area and Production Table 3.17: Natural Rubber Statistics (1990–2010) Table 3.18: Indonesia’s Rubber Exports by Destination (tons) Table 3.19: Natural Rubber Production by Producer Category (tons) Table 3.20: Development of Smallholder Rubber Table 3.21: Fish production in Indonesia 2000–2011 Table 3.22: Annual fish consumption (2010) Table 3.23: Annual fish consumption of urban and rural consumers by monthly income group (‘000Rp) in kg/head/year (2011) Table 3.24: Projected demand for fish productions in Indonesia (2010–2040) Table 3.25: Average consumer prices (USD/kg) for Beef and Poultry and Price Ratio Table 3.26: Per capita livestock products consumption (kilograms) Table 3.27: Livestock Production 1983–2009 (‘000 tons) Table 3.28: Chickens imports Chapter 4 Table 4.1: Income and Agricultural Dependency Table 4.2: Annual Percentage Growth in the Quantity of Agricultural Production 1999–2005 Table 4.3: Newly Constructed Lumbung Desa 2009–2011 Table 4.4: Average Weekly Consumption and Estimated Yearly Major Food Consumption of Indonesia 1999–2011 Table 4.5: Breakdown of Rice Consumption in Indonesia 2011 Table 4.6: Fish and Meat Annual Consumption in Various Providences 2011 Table 4.7: Yearly Consumption Range Table 4.8: Rice Milling Rates Table 4.9: Cropping Intensity vi L IST of FIGURES, TABLES, and BOXES Chapter 5 Table 5.1: Per capita and total consumption Table 5.2: Required Cropping Area (Ha) Table 5.3: Government of Indonesia Rice Demand Projections 2005–2040 Annex 1 Table A1.1: Indonesia’s scenario specifications Table A1.2: Philippines’ scenario specifications Table A1.3: Vietnam’s scenario specifications Table A1.4: Indonesian Eggs Table A1.5: Singapore’s eating habits Table A1.6: Scenario specifications Table A1.7: Scenario definitions Annex 2 Table A2.1: Fish production in Indonesia 2000–2011 Table A2.2: Annual fish consumption (2010) Table A2.3: Annual fish consumption of urban and rural consumers by monthly income group (‘000Rp) in kg/head/year (2011) Table A2.4: Projected demand for fish products in Indonesia (2010–2040) Table A2.5 Table A2.6: Regulatory responsibility for marine fisheries management Table A2.7: Fisheries sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in real terms (in 2000 trillion Rupiah) and as percentage of Agriculture GDP (2004–2009) Table A2.8: Comparison of annual fish consumption sources (2010) Table A2.9: Projected annual percentage growth of consumption per capita of fish products for SE Asia (1997–2020) and growth projected for Indonesia (2010–2040) Table A2.10: Projected demand for fish products in Indonesia (2010–2040) Annex 3 Table A3.1: Average consumer prices (USD/kg) for Beef and Poultry meat and ratio Table A3.2: Per Capita Livestock Products Consumption (kilograms) Table A3.3: 2011 total animal feed production per area Table A3.4: Live and boxed meat imports 2005–2010 Boxes Chapter 2 Box 2.1: Centennial Growth Model Annex 2 Box A2.1: Role of Fish in Human Nutrition vii AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION & FOOD SECURITY 2040—INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT Annex 5 Box A5.1: Climate Field Schools in Indonesia viii ABBREVIATIONS AAHRD Agency of Agricultural Human Resource Development AIAT Assessment Institutes for Agricultural Technologies ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AUSAID Australian Agency for International Development AVRDC Asia Vegetable Research and Development Center BAL Basic Agrarian Law BIPP Balai Informasi dan Penyuluhan Pertanian—Agriculture Extension Field Office BPN Badan Pertanahan Nasional- Land Agency BPS Badan Pusat Statistik—Central Agency on Statistics BRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia BTPN Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk BULOG Badan Urusan Logistik—Logustics Affairs Agency CC Climate Change CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CPO crude palm oil DAFEP District Agricultural and Forestry Extension Project EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FAOSTAT FAO Statistical Database FEATI The Farmer Empowerment Through Agricultural Technology and Information Project FMD Foot and Mouth Disease FMPI Forum Masyarakat Perunggassan Indonesia FPPM Fisheries Product Processing and Marketing GAPPI Gabungan Perusahaan Perunggassan Indonesia—Indonesian Poultry Association GCM General Circulation Models GERNAS Gerakan Nasional Cacao- National Cocoa Replanting Program GDP Gross domestic product GGP Great Giant Pineapple GHG Green House Gas FPPM GMO Genetically modified organisms GOPAN Gabungan Organisasi Peternak Ayam Nasional- National Chicken Producers of 550 Ciation GPMT Gabungan Perusahaan Makanan Ternak—Indonesian Feedmill Association GPS Grand Parent Stock AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION & FOOD SECURITY 2040—INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT GSL Global Sea Level GMP Global Mean Precipitation GOI Government of Indonesia HACCP Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points IAARD Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development ICT Information and communication technology IFC International Finance Corporation KADIN the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce KPPOD Komite Pemantauan Pelaksanaan Otonomi Daerah (Committee Monitoring the Implementation of Regional Autonomy) KUD Kooperasi Unit Desa—Village Cooperative MCS Monitoring Control and Surveillance MHOA Ministry of Home Affairs MMAF Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries MOF Ministry of Finance MP3EI Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia—Strategy for Accelerated Regional Development MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield NES Nucleus Estates and Smallholder Schemes NIFA National Institute of Food and Agriculture PBS Program for Biosafety System PDSR Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response PEER Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research PIN Production Index Number PINSAR Pusat Informasi Pasar- Center for Market Information PPP Public-private Partnerships Purchsing power parity OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development RASKIN Rice for the Poor REDD Reduced Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation RFMO Regional Fisheries Management Organizations RSS ribbed smoked sheet SMS Short message service SUSENAS The National Socioeconomic Survey TFP Total factor productivity USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture
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