The Future of US Policy Toward China: Recommendations for the Biden Administration
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A PRODUCT OF THE NOVEMBER 2020 COLLABORATION BETWEEN BROOKINGS FOREIGN POLICY’S JOHN L. THORNTON CHINA CENTER AND YALE LAW SCHOOL’S PAUL TSAI CHINA CENTER THE FUTURE OF US POLICY TOWARD CHINA Recommendations for the Biden administration EDITED BY RYAN HASS, RYAN MCELVEEN, AND ROBERT D. WILLIAMS TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword Ryan Hass and Robert D. Williams ...........................................................i Introduction “Meeting the China challenge: A strategic competitor, not an enemy,” by Jeff Bader, Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution ......................1 Section I: Bilateral diplomacy and working with allies “Avoiding three traps in confronting China’s party-state,” by Cheng Li, Director and Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution ...........8 “Designing a new diplomatic framework for dealing with China,” by Ryan Hass, Michael H. Armacost Chair and Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution ..........15 “Working with our (European) allies,” by Paul Gewirtz, Potter Stewart Professor of Constitutional Law and Director, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School ....................20 “Developing a new US approach to China and COVID-19,” by Thomas J. Christensen, Nonresident Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution; Professor and Director, China and the World Program, Columbia University. 26 “Rebooting US-China climate engagement,” by Todd Stern, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, The Brookings Institution ............................31 “Getting human rights right: Consistency, patience, multilateralism, and setting a good example,” by Andrew Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Columbia University ................................................................35 Section II: Asia-Pacific security and US-China security “Evolving the US base structure in the Indo-Pacific,” by Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow and Director of Research, Foreign Policy, The Brookings Institution .........................41 “Averting conflict in the South China Sea: Steps to restore rules and restraint,” by Susan Thornton, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School .....................46 “Competing with China in Southeast Asia: The economic imperative,” Jonathan Stromseth, Lee Kuan Yew Chair and Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution ............................................................52 “Contending on the periphery: Taiwan and Hong Kong,” by Richard Bush, Nonresident Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution .....................60 “Testing the possibilities of renewed cooperation with China on North Korea policy,” by Jonathan Pollack, Nonresident Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution ............................................................64 “Improving risk reduction and crisis management in US-China relations,” by Rush Doshi, Fellow and Director, China Strategy Initiative, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution; Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School ...................69 Section III: Economics, technology, and rule of law “Forging an alternative economic strategy for dealing with China,” by David Dollar, Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution .....................73 “Crafting a multilateral technology and cybersecurity policy,” by Robert D. Williams, Executive Director, Paul Tsai China Center, Senior Research Scholar and Lecturer in Law, Yale Law School .....................................................77 “Addressing the data security risks of US-China technology entanglement,” by Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School .......................85 “Revitalizing law and governance collaboration with China,” by Jamie Horsley, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School; Visiting Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution .................................92 THE FUTURE OF US POLICY TOWARD CHINA Recommendations for the Biden administration EDITED BY RYAN HASS, RYAN MCELVEEN, AND ROBERT D. WILLIAMS FOREWORD Ryan Hass and Robert D. Williams In recent years, the U.S.-China relationship has grown increasingly adversarial. Areas of confrontation have intensified, areas of cooperation have shrunk, and the capacity of both countries to solve problems or manage competing interests has atrophied. This monograph does not seek to examine the causes of this recent downturn in the relationship. Instead, the authors look forward with an array of affirmative and pragmatic proposals for how the United States should adapt its policy toward China to respond to current realities in a manner that best protects and promotes America’s interests and values. This monograph on the future of U.S. policy toward China is designed to be practical and policy relevant. It is the product of an institutional partnership since January 2018 between the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center and the Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. Each chapter reflects the views of its author. The chapters — all written before the outcome of the U.S. presidential election was known — do not advocate any institutional position or promote any consistent viewpoint or common goal for the U.S.-China relationship. The authors approach the aspects of the relationship upon which they are writing from the perspective of their own experiences and expertise. The monograph addresses a broad range of issues in U.S.-China relations but does not aim to be comprehensive in its coverage of such a dynamic bilateral relationship. The introductory section provides a framework for reconceptualizing the U.S.-China relationship. Section I focuses on new approaches to bilateral diplomacy and working with U.S. allies on common challenges. Section II offers proposals on security-related issues from Asia-Pacific regional and U.S.-China bilateral perspectives. Section III includes a variety of policy recommendations in the areas of economics, technology, and rule of law. i FOREWORD Viewed as a whole, there are policy areas where recommendations across the chapters are in alignment, and other areas where the recommendations are in tension. Where all the chapters are in accord, however, is in providing concrete recommendations that aim to move the U.S.-China relationship forward in a manner that strengthens America’s security, prosperity, and values. INTRODUCTION Jeff Bader provides a framework for understanding the current state of the U.S.-China relationship. He argues that while strategic competition with China will be the overriding feature of the relationship for the immediate future, it would be contrary to American interests to treat China as an enemy. To do so would distort our national priorities, increase the risk of war, damage our ability to compete by alienating partners, and render cooperation more difficult even when in our interest. To meet the China challenge, Bader urges the United States to prioritize maintaining its historic edge in technology innovation, building a multilateral coalition to confront Chinese violations of the rules- based international order, and rebuilding its political, economic, and social foundations. Bader encourages policymakers to take a long view of competition with China, factoring in both China’s abundant strengths and its glaring weaknesses, in building a coherent national strategy for outcompeting China. I. BILATERAL DIPLOMACY AND WORKING WITH ALLIES Cheng Li identifies three traps that the next administration should avoid in its conception and execution of a coherent China policy. First, the next administration should avoid public efforts to drive a wedge between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese state or the Chinese people. Li warns that such efforts may generate the opposite and unintended effect of enhancing the popularity and authority of the Chinese Communist Party within China, as a reaction to perceived attack from abroad. Second, the next administration should refrain from calls for the overthrow of the Chinese Communist Party, at least unless and until the United States has a grand strategy, political leverage, and a game plan for ensuring that whatever would succeed the Chinese Communist Party would be more conducive to American interests than the status quo. Third, the next administration should avoid crudely xenophobic assertions that ethnic Chinese people present a “whole- of-society threat” to the United States. Such broad-bush assertions validate Chinese propaganda about America’s prejudicial biases. Instead, a new administration should construct a comprehensive strategy toward China that is guided by a clear-eyed recognition of the capacity and constraints of American power to influence China’s choices. Ryan Hass observes that a sharp deterioration in overall relations has coincided with a significant reduction in direct diplomatic dialogue. He argues that the reduction in direct communication in recent years has not improved America’s ability to influence how China identifies or pursues its interests, nor has it generated leverage to compel Chinese concessions in exchange for high-level meetings. He encourages the next administration to settle on a pace and level of diplomatic interaction with Chinese leaders that is reflective of — or not in conflict with — the views of the American public and of American allies