Vietnam's Environmental Policies at a Crossroads Salinated Rice Fields

Vietnam’s Environmental Policies at a Crossroads Salinated Rice Fields, Hunted-Out National Parks, and Eroding Beaches – and What We Can Do About It Dr. Sonja Schirmbeck REG IONA L www.fes-asia.org Back Cover.indd 1 4/4/16 9:29 pm 10 pages.indd 1 4/4/16 9:28 pm Contents Preface i Introduction 1 1. Background: Three categories of environmental challenges 2 2. The political answers to those challenges – and why they often fail 5 3. Double pressure creating room for optimism 8 4. The way forward – policy recommendations for Vietnamese and international stakeholders 11 Notes 16 Bibliography 23 Preface The following paper is based on experience I gained Collier, and Mrs Dorothea Konstantinidis, for their through numerous projects, workshops, and talks during comments. I would also like to thank the PR team of my four years working for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung FES Asia (coordinated by Ms Mila Shopova and including (FES) on climate change, energy, and environmental copy-edit and layout consultants Mr Sean Sampson and policies in Vietnam. I sincerely thank my colleagues Ms Olivia Teo) for their support regarding the revision from the FES “climate” team in Vietnam, including my and design of the study. Last but not least, Mr. Hai Vu successor, Mrs Yvonne Blos, as well as my colleagues at Nguyen supported the work on this study by numerous FES headquarters, and two external experts, Mr Miguel pieces of research. i Introduction: A success story coming to an end because of environmental threats? Introduction: A success story coming to an end because of environmental threats? It is widely known that Vietnam, a country of However, the future development of the country 90 million inhabitants, stretched out along the is threatened by severe challenges arising from eastern shores of continental South-East Asia, climate change, the rapid industrialization process, has a very impressive record regarding its foreign and “home-made” environmental problems, which and economic policies: The relatively small country will be addressed in this paper. The paper is structured succeeded in defeating almost all military superpowers as follows: The following background (section 1) will (China, the USA, and France), and, after the end of describe the context of Vietnam’s triple environmental the wars and an economic opening-up process in the challenge. Against this backdrop, the political response 1980/90s, was one of the most successful countries of the country’s decision makers will be sketched out – worldwide in lifting a large percentage of its population and explanations offered why those political answers out of poverty.1 Today, Vietnam is a bustling country with have not been sufficient to address the problems up to one of the fastest growing middle classes worldwide, a now (section 2). Against this bleak picture, section 3 will well-respected member of the international community, focus on some factors allowing room for optimism, while and successfully attracts large numbers of foreign in the concluding section 4, policy recommendations will investors and tourists alike. be presented specifying how those positive developments should be strengthened. 1 Vietnam’s Environmental Policies at a Crossroads 1. Background: Three categories of environmental challenges Vietnam’s environmental challenges can be land for growing rice has already begun: Due to sea classified according to three categories: There are level rise – but also because of decreasing water levels challenges predominantly caused by developments of the Mekong delta (due to hydropower dams in and outside Vietnam; there are challenges which outside Vietnam), an overexploitation of ground water, are typical for countries in the process of the destruction of mangroves, and the sheer weight of industrialization; and there are challenges which heavy infrastructure development – more and more salt are very specific to Vietnam. water enters the delta’s waterways every year, salinating the soil, thereby rendering rice farming impossible for a First, regarding the problems caused by foreign longer period of time, or even forever.7 actors, climate change, leading to sea-level rise, is by far the biggest challenge for the country. While sea-level rise will be the biggest challenge for Vietnam mastered all invasions by outside forces in the Vietnam in future, the country already suffers from 20th century and before, but might fail to cope with more extreme weather events, which will add to the the consequences of climate change in the 21st century economic losses the country will experience due to and beyond. Vietnam’s share in causing climate change climate change: Floods caused by heavy rainfalls affect has been insignificant in the past,2 but all models show all major cities; record droughts have become normal that Vietnam will be one of the countries hardest hit by especially for the Mekong delta and the fertile central sea-level rise worldwide. This is partly due to Vietnam’s highlands,8 while typhoons especially hit the central geographic features: Its 3,000km long coastline facing coastal regions.9 In total, Vietnam’s financial needs to be the South China- or Vietnamese East Sea erodes up to able to adapt to climate change are estimated at least at 30cm per year already today.3 Beaches literally disappear 830 million USD per year10– a number certainly beyond overnight, which is a concern for investors in the tourism the country’s financial capacities (with a total state industry.4 The even bigger problem is that Vietnam has budget of 45 billion USD in 2016)11. This is all the more two major river deltas, which house most of the country’s true because Vietnam is predicted to lose 6-15 million population, and which are the major hubs of economic USD every year due to climate change.12 development: The major trading port of Hai Phong in the North and, further inland, the capital Hanoi with its Second, like many industrializing countries, 8 million citizens, will be affected towards the end of Vietnam’s rapid economic development, including the century. Even earlier, essential parts of the southern a growing energy demand, not only increases Mekong Delta will sink: Current models predict that the country’s contribution to climate change, but 40% of the Mekong Delta will be submerged at the end also causes tremendous environmental pollution, of the century, if no effective countermeasures are taken affecting the health of the majority of the citizens, – and those models are based on predictions for a global and threatening all of the country’s ecosystems. average sea-level rise of 1m,5 while the feared collapse As in many emerging economies, rapid industrialization of the Greenland ice sheet could cause a further increase helped to create new wealth. However, this process of 6-7m alone.6 This is especially problematic, because has (deliberately) been driven forward without flanking Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the country’s biggest and measures to protect the environment. Because of a fast growing metropolis, is based in the delta, because global shift of “brown” industrial production especially most of the industrial development of the country takes to Asian countries (to which the “Global North” owes a place in its southern provinces, and because most of part of its presumed “decoupling”),13 and a regional race Vietnam’s agricultural production (rice, fish/shrimp to the bottom regarding environmental standards,14 the farming, and fruits) is based in the Mekong delta as well. “dark side” of this economic development is becoming As Vietnam is one of the world’s biggest exporters of more and more visible: The large majority of Vietnam’s rice, the loss of major parts of the Mekong delta poses a water reserves is polluted – with water pollution causing risk for international food security. The damage to fertile up to 80% of illnesses, and pollution reaching such a 2 1. Background: three categories of environmental challenges severe level that the water cannot even be used for those plans would cause tremendous pollution not only industrial production anymore.15 Soil pollution is caused of the air, but also of the water and soil surrounding by the common overuse of pesticides (which also the power plants, severely affecting people’s livelihoods causes mounting concerns regarding food safety), as and ecosystems. On top of that, they might either cause well as by the inadequate disposal of waste, including water shortages if built in increasingly drought- and hazardous waste, from industrial production.16 The salination-prone areas inland, or might be damaged due ever increasing amounts of household waste are also to coastal erosion or sea-level rise if built on the coast or of concern, with (over-)consumption of goods reaching in the Mekong delta. Of course, Vietnam’s greenhouse new records every year, while consumers have a low gas (GHG) emissions, causing climate change, would level of awareness regarding eco-friendly production, also drastically increase – while contributing to the packaging, re-use, and recycling of goods – which puts acceleration of climate change is not a good option for Vietnam in place four worldwide for discharging plastic Vietnam at all, as can be seen from the problems caused waste into the sea, causing complaints by Vietnamese as by climate change described above.23 well as foreign tourists of beaches looking like dumping sites.17 The growing economy and wealth have also led However, there are viable alternatives for the to an investment boom in real estate and infrastructure

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