Assessing the Technical, Economic, and Environmental
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ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY OF FLOATING SOLAR POWER GENERATION ON WATER RESERVOIRS IN VIETNAM By Phuong Anh Bui A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Humboldt State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science in Environmental Systems: Energy, Technology and Policy Committee Membership Dr. Peter Alstone, Committee Chair Dr. Arne Jacobson, Committee Member Dr. Charles Chamberlin, Committee Member Dr. Margaret Lang, Program Graduate Coordinator December 2019 ABSTRACT ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL FEASIBILITY OF FLOATING SOLAR POWER GENERATION ON WATER RESERVOIRS IN VIETNAM Phuong Anh Bui Vietnam has been developing an energy path involving increased renewable energy use. With over 7,000 existing water reservoirs, Vietnam has great potential to install floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) plants that will protect productive lands, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce water evaporation rates. This study investigates the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of installing FPV in three reservoirs in Vietnam: Hoa Binh, Tri An, and Dau Tieng. The capacities of the FPV plants assessed for three reservoirs range from 96 MW to 4,300 MW. The yearly solar generation from the three reservoirs ranges from 900 GWh to 13,700 GWh, and investment costs range from 690 to 10.3 billion USD, dependent on the reservoir size and FPV area coverage of 1%, 5%, 10%, and 15%. The payback period of the FPV systems at the three reservoirs could range from 6 to 14 years. The estimated Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Hoa Binh reservoir’s FPV system ranges from $50 to $95/MWh, while the other two reservoirs’ LCOEs range from $40 to $70/MWh. These systems could supply 4% of Vietnam’s predicted 2025 energy demand and would avoid approximately 11 million tons of CO2e emissions per year. The shading ii provided by the FPV systems can save up to 136 million m3 of water annually. If the water savings are coupled with hydropower on Hoa Binh and Tri An Reservoir, the whole facility could generate an additional 12 GWh per year. Future study should include more in-depth research into factors such as the impact of substation upgrade costs, variable interest rates, and economies of scale on project economics; environmental impacts such as changes in hydropower operation on aquatic life; and human social and economic displacement due to FPV infrastructure land and water occupation. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge and provide my sincere gratitude to my Committee, including Dr. Peter Alstone, Dr. Arne Jacobson, and Dr. Charles Chamberlin for their support and guidance during my study and thesis research. I would like to acknowledge the resources and software that were used in this project such as Asian Development Bank, International Renewable Energy Agency, NASA GRanD database, Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2, Esri and Google Earth Pro. I would like to thank Mr. Michael Gabisch from Asian Development Bank who gave me more insights into the Da Mi project financing and inviting me on the field trip, and Mr. Tinh Nguyen, Director of Vietnam Directorate of Water Resource for his support in this project. I appreciate the help and unfailing enthusiasm of Mr. Ingmar Stelter from GIZ Vietnam, who I met two years ago in a solar business conference in Thailand, who since then has always answered my email, making me believe in the fact that “Just reach out to people. Don’t be scared”. This quote I sincerely adapt from Mr. Michael Furniss, who has helped keep me sane throughout the graduate school life thanks to his knowledge and interest in doing great work to protect the Earth. I also want to thank Professor Bill Trush for his challenging questions and critical thinking skills throughout our research on the impact of dams and fish ladder mitigation in the Mekong Basin. Finally, I would like to express my profound gratitude towards my family, including my parents, my grandparents, my brother, and my fellow graduate students – iv Chih-Wei Hsu who have been providing me the greatest push for me to continue my study and believing in my ability. This accomplishment would not have been possible without their love and support. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... vi TABLES OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... ix TABLES OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... xi LIST OF APPENDICES .................................................................................................. xiv INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 4 Vietnam Energy Outlook ................................................................................................ 4 Vietnam Electricity Sector .............................................................................................. 6 Overall structure .......................................................................................................... 6 Wholesale Electricity Market...................................................................................... 7 Retail Electricity Market ........................................................................................... 11 Transmission Networks ............................................................................................ 14 Vietnam Renewable Energy development ................................................................ 14 Floating Photovoltaic Solar Generation ........................................................................ 20 Technology ............................................................................................................... 20 Economics of FPV .................................................................................................... 27 Environmental ........................................................................................................... 29 Additional benefits and disadvantages ...................................................................... 31 Literature Gaps .......................................................................................................... 32 vi Vietnam Floating Solar Generation Potential ........................................................... 34 Study Reservoirs ........................................................................................................... 35 METHODS ....................................................................................................................... 39 Technical feasibility ...................................................................................................... 39 Economic feasibility ...................................................................................................... 45 Environmental feasibility .............................................................................................. 49 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 54 Technical feasibility ...................................................................................................... 54 Economic feasibility ...................................................................................................... 61 Environmental feasibility .............................................................................................. 68 Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................ 73 Payback period and LCOE assumption, and sensititivity analysis ........................... 73 Environmental analysis assumption and sensitivity analysis .................................... 82 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................... 84 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... 86 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 88 APPENDIX A ................................................................................................................. 106 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................. 109 APPENDIX C ................................................................................................................. 113 APPENDIX D. ................................................................................................................ 119 APPENDIX E ................................................................................................................. 122 APPENDIX F.................................................................................................................. 127 APPENDIX G. ...............................................................................................................