A Low-Carbon Industrial Strategy For
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CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | VIVID ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER | JULY 2019 A LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR DISCUSSION PAPER: A LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR VIETNAM 1 CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | VIVID ECONOMICS CONTENTS Executive Summary 02 Why develop a low-carbon industrial strategy? 04 What opportunities for low-carbon industrialisation are available to the Vietnam? 11 Vietnam can join the regional race 18 Appendix 22 Executive Summary The world economy is transitioning towards in 2000, South Korea was in a similar position to cleaner and less carbon-intensive forms of Vietnam today and only exported 3% of global growth. Demand for low-carbon products is low-carbon exports. In 2008 it announced a expected to grow at 11% per year, between 2020 green growth strategy and in a span of ten years, and 2050, and could accelerate as the world managed to become one of the global leaders enters a zero-carbon paradigm. Unprecedented in low-carbon products, exporting nearly 10% of demand for green technology solutions is likely global market share. There is still time for other to emerge by the second half of the century as countries to replicate this experience. countries face a hard deadline to limit global temperature rise. Regardless of individual country For Vietnam to be competitive in the global efforts to limit emissions, global demand for low-carbon economy, it requires a robust green technologies will continue to experience green industrial strategy to consolidate upon robust growth. promising opportunities, and this starts with identifying priority sectors. A low-carbon Countries that get a head start in developing industrial strategy can help pivot Vietnam’s low-carbon technologies today will be the major economy towards increasingly profitable sectors. economies of tomorrow. The ‘green race’ is the Industrial policies can include direct subsidies for idea that economies can strategically position innovation and manufacturing, cluster-based themselves to take advantage of growing low- policies that reduce costs of key inputs, improved carbon markets and succeed in capturing global information dissemination through coordinating market share. History shows it is prudent to and planning agencies, and public procurement start priming domestic industry early; to catalyse the market for early stage industries. DISCUSSION PAPER: A LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR VIETNAM 2 CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | VIVID ECONOMICS The right mix of policies will depend on the key Renewable energy technologies such as wind market failures which constrain growth today. and solar are promising markets for Vietnam both in terms of manufacturing and local Our analysis highlights that energy storage, deployment. Photovoltaic cell manufacturing smart grids, photovoltaics and wind power already happens at scale in Vietnam, although are key opportunities for Vietnam. Vietnam a large part of this can be attributed to foreign is well placed to participate in the battery companies. Ensuring technical transfers benefit industry supply chain, as a result of its natural domestic players is a priority, coupled with endowments of bauxite and titanium. It is encouraging a domestic market for solar power endowed with the third largest reserve of bauxite that prioritises local innovative companies. globally. Incentives that create a local electric Public procurement of wind power along vehicle market can attract foreign investment Vietnam’s long coastline can also help to build and local manufacturing, helping Vietnam a domestic industry. Similar to solar PV, wind gradually diversify away from minerals extraction. manufacturing in Vietnam is dominated by foreign companies. By developing these sectors Vietnam can build domestic industries that position it for growth, Policies to encourage technology transfer, such through increased productivity, diversified sources as the creation of knowledge hubs through of revenue and potentially developing export collaborative R&D funding, can ensure positive markets which can form part of an international long-term impacts from inward foreign direct supply chain. investment (FDI). The existence of geographical economic clusters highlights the positive impact In terms of smart grids, Vietnam’s reputation that an existing supply chain can have in and prowess as an electronics hub has attracting investment and business activity into positioned it well in the ‘green race’. nearby economies. Vietnam is in close proximity Smart grid technology is closely linked to to clean economy leaders such as South Korea electronics and Vietnam is already competitive and Japan. To increase positive spill overs from in various components that are useful for smart these economies, Vietnam can encourage grids. With a long-term perspective and support technology transfer through conventional from new planning agencies, smart grids could mechanisms, collaborative R&D with foreign be a strength. Crucially, they are required for organisations, joint ventures and technology large scale integration of renewable energy licensing; and more unconventional mechanisms and therefore public procurement processes such as foreign R&D and company acquisition. to improve grid stability could be one route to Vietnam has an opportunity to accelerate the supporting local industry. Innovation challenge green industrial transition through neighbours funds and research and development (R&D) specialised in low-carbon innovation. collaboration can help to create an enabling environment for private sector activity. DISCUSSION PAPER: A LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR VIETNAM 3 CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | VIVID ECONOMICS Why develop a low-carbon industrial strategy? THE GLOBAL RACE TO CAPTURE MARKET GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION HAS BEGUN We are on the cusp of a new economic era: one where growth is driven by the interaction between rapid technological innovation, sustainable infrastructure investment, and increased resource productivity. This is the only growth story of the 21st century. It will result in efficient, liveable cities; low-carbon, smart and resilient infrastructure; and the restoration of degraded lands while protecting valuable forests. We can have growth that is strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive1. The global economy is embracing low-carbon manufacturing hubs today will be the major growth. A recent report by the New Climate economies of tomorrow. They will help lead the Economy finds that the next 10-15 years global transition towards clean and sustainable represent a ‘use it or lose it’ period in economic industrial growth. Much like the last wave of history, which will see US$90 trillion invested in globalisation, there will once again be clear first- infrastructure globally by 20302. Ensuring this mover advantage. infrastructure is green is critical to meeting climate and sustainable development goals. The impetus for greener growth is being felt But while we’re used to thinking that ambitious by more and more countries, as environmental action towards green growth will come at a cost, degradation, climate change issues and social the opposite is in fact true. New Climate Economy inequality become increasingly pressing. finds that bold climate action could deliver US$26 The carbon-intensive pathway to trillion in additional value to the global economy industrialisation, which has lifted so many by 20303. In other words, green growth is not only countries from developing to developed important for achieving environmental and social economies, is no longer seen as the only pathway outcomes, it is also the pathway of choice for to achieving development goals. Instead, low- strong and sustained economic growth. carbon development is increasingly understood to be the best option for maximising economic, Developing economies are well placed to take environmental and social outcomes. This shift advantage of large anticipated growth in is encouraging and accelerating the global the demand for low-carbon technologies. demand for low-carbon technologies. Figure 1 Meeting the explosion in infrastructure needs demonstrates how the global demand for low- will require the production of technologies, carbon technologies and services is predicted to products and services. Countries that get a head grow rapidly over the next 30 years. start in developing low-carbon technologies and DISCUSSION PAPER: A LOW-CARBON INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR VIETNAM 4 CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | VIVID ECONOMICS FIGURE 1. THE MARKET SIZE FOR LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGIES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 (USD bn) (USD 3,000 TECHNOLOGIES TECHNOLOGIES 2,000 GLOBAL MARKET SIZE OF GREEN GREEN OF SIZE MARKET GLOBAL 1,000 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport Heating and cooling Carbon capture and storage Onshore wind Biofuels Solar PV Nuclear Offshore wind Other markets Note: not all low-carbon markets are included, so the estimates for global demand will underestimate expected future market size; Other markets includes buildings, industry, tidal and hydrogen. Source: Vivid Economics, IEA ETP For countries who position themselves to The winners will be those countries who position leverage their latent strengths in green themselves to corner global market share in technology innovation or production, this rapid researching, designing, manufacturing or growth in demand for low-carbon technologies servicing low-carbon technologies and industries. signals an economic boom. Figure 2 shows how Asia is clearly ahead of the game globally when