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Quarterly Bulletin Will Examine More Comprehensively Both Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balances and Longer-Term Issues for the Irish Public Finances

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Quarterly Bulletin Will Examine More Comprehensively Both Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balances and Longer-Term Issues for the Irish Public Finances Bulletin Winter 1999 Central Bank of Ireland 1999 Maurice Gerard Moynihan 1902-1999 The death last August of Dr. Maurice Moynihan, former Governor of the Central Bank, is recorded with deep regret. He was predeceased by his wife, American-born Mae Conly, in July 1994. They were married in 1932 and had five children, two of whom predeceased him. The Bank extends its sympathy to his surviving children, Anne, Joan and Martin. Dr. Moynihan was born in Tralee, Co. Kerry, and educated by the Christian Brothers. He won a scholarship to University College, Cork where he was awarded a first-class honours degree in commerce. His career began in the Department of Finance in 1925. He became Private Secretary to the Taoiseach, Eamon de Valera in 1932. He was appointed Secretary to the Government and Secretary of the Department of the Taoiseach in 1937, and is acknowledged to have played a central, constructive role in the co-ordination of government policy generally. He was a member of the committee which Mr. de Valera established to draft the new Constitution. During the Second World War he worked closely with Mr. de Valera in his defence of Ireland's position of neutrality. Dr. Moynihan was a Service Director of the Central Bank from 1953 to 1960 and Governor from 1961 to 1969. Under his enlightened stewardship the Bank developed in several important areas: the issuing of credit advice to the banks which marked the beginning of monetary policy, the provision of rediscounting facilities, active participation in the market for government securities, the development of clearing systems and preparatory work for a money market. He also oversaw the widening of the fund backing the note issue to include assets other than sterling. During his tenure the administration of exchange controls was transferred to the Bank; much of the banknote printing was ``repatriated'' to Dublin and an embryonic banking supervision function was set up. Dr. Moynihan also oversaw the mergers of clearing (Associated) banks and the centralisation of the foreign currency reserves in the Bank. He was also responsible for promoting economic and monetary research at the Bank which, under his guidance, undertook most of the key functions of a modern central bank. The former Foster Place premises of the Currency Commission, having become inadequate, Dr. Moynihan initiated the building of a new Central Bank of distinctive construction and design in Dame Street. He was conferred with an honorary doctorate in economic science by the National University of Ireland in 1955 and with a papal title Ð Knight Commander of the Order of St. Gregory the Great Ð in 1959. He also became a member of the Commission of Charitable Donations and Bequests for Ireland. Subsequent to his retirement he wrote Currency and Central Banking in Ireland, 1922-1960, Central Bank and Gill and MacMillan, 1975 and edited Speeches and Statements by Eamon de Valera 1917-1973, Gill and MacMillan, 1980 while also serving as a Director of Trinity Bank. His contribution to the development of the State was significant and enduring. His achievements were matched only by his modesty and courteous manner. May he rest in peace. Contents Section 1 5 Comment on the Irish Economy 9 The International Economy 19 The Domestic Economy: Real and Financial Developments 41 Domestic Prices, Costs and Competitiveness 49 An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach 51 Statement by Governor, Central Bank of Ireland, to Oireachtas Committee on Finance and the Public Service, 13 October 1999 Section 2 57 Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of National Central Banks Ð Rafique Mottiar 71 Structural Differences between the US and the Euro Area Ð John Flynn Section 3 Statistical Appendix and Explanatory Notes Notes ISSN 0332-2645 1. The permission of the Government has been obtained for the use in this Bulletin of certain material compiled by the Central Statistics Office and Government Departments. The Bulletin also contains material which has been made available by the courtesy of licensed banks and other financial institutions. 2. Unless otherwise stated, statistics refer to the State, i.e., Ireland exclusive of Northern Ireland. 3. Unless otherwise stated, amounts expressed in pounds (£) refer to Irish Pounds. 4. In some cases, owing to the rounding of figures, components do not add to the totals shown. 5. The method of seasonal adjustment used in the Bank is that of the US Bureau of the Census X-11 variant. 6. Annual rates of change are annual extrapolations of specific period-to-period percentage changes. 7. The following symbols are used: e estimated n.a. not available p provisional . no figure to be expected r revised Ð nil or negligible Q quarter f forecast 8. As far as possible, data available at end-Sept. 1999 are included in the Statistical Appendix (Section 3). 9. Updates of selected Tables from the Statistical Appendix, concerning monetary and financial-market developments, are provided in Monthly Statistics which is currently published on the first Thursday of every month. Data on euro and Irish- pound exchange rates, Irish Government bond yields and on the Irish equity index are provided daily on recorded telephone message (Telephone: 353 1 6716299). Printed by: Cahill Printers Ltd., East Wall Road, Dublin 3. Designed by: Brendan Matthews and Associates, 9 Upper Leeson Street, Dublin 4. Paper: 100% Chlorine Free Product. Enquiries relating to this Bulletin should be addressed to: Central Bank of Ireland (Publications), P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2. Telephone 6716666 Telex 31041 Fax 6716561 www.centralbank.ie Comment on the Irish Economy Exceptionally strong economic growth has now continued for several years. Growth in 1999 is estimated at about 7 per cent. after a period of economic expansion averaging some 8 per cent. a year in the previous five years. The task facing economic policy is to manage and facilitate a gradual slowdown in demand to a rate consistent with the estimated medium- term growth potential of the economy and so underpin the objective of price stability. There are pressures in the economy which, if left unchecked, could undermine prospects for continuing stable growth. Unemployment has fallen steadily for some years and now stands at just over 5 per cent., a very low figure by historical standards. Ireland's employment rate, on foot of an increase in employment of more than 370,000 or 30 per cent. in the past five years, is now similar to that of the EU as a whole; 61 per cent. of the working-age population is now in employment. Anecdotal evidence of unfilled vacancies in many sectors of the economy has recently been confirmed in a comprehensive survey by the Economic and Social Research Institute. Although there are lags in the availability of data, there has been an acceleration in the pace of wage increases, particularly in the public sector. Using a common standard, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, Ireland's inflation rate, at 2´8 per cent. in October, has been over twice the euro-area average, and is currently the highest among the fifteen EU countries. This must be a source of serious concern. The relative cyclical positions of the Irish and euro-area economies in general and, to some degree, price level convergence to euro-area levels may be contributing to this, but strong underlying inflationary pressures are the main driving force. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been 1 registering annual increases of about 1 ¤2 per cent. for some time, this incorporates the temporary effect of substantial reductions in mortgage interest rates in the run-up to the adoption of the single currency at the end of last year. When this effect is removed, the CPI increase is currently running at a rate of more than 3 per cent. a year. In the 1 services sector, inflation is now of the order of 5 ¤4 per cent. Other evidence of pressures in the economy are house prices and congestion problems arising from the demands placed on infrastructure of various kinds. While the rate of increase may have moderated to some degree, house prices have reached unduly high levels. The balance of payments surplus has been reduced and is likely to move into deficit next year. 5 The authorities and social partners now have the task of dealing with problems of success such as the current pressure on resources of various kinds, including skilled labour. It is sometimes argued that the acceleration in the pace of wage increases, for example, is part of the adjustment process in a booming economy. According to this perception, higher wage increases affect international competitiveness; this reduces net exports and the demand for labour, which, in turn, eases the pressures in the labour market. However, this is unlikely to be a smooth process. Firstly, wage developments may be quite slow to respond to new circumstances such as a deceleration in growth. Secondly, the strongest wage pressures, with some exceptionally large increases observed or in the pipeline, are evident in the sectors that operate in more sheltered conditions Ð health, education and security. These are not exposed to market disciplines or international competition. Besides, services in these areas are, for the most part, provided free at the point of delivery, so that consumers do not have an incentive to curtail demand. For some years Ireland's per capita productivity increases have been higher than in the rest of the euro area. There would seem to be a number of reasons for this. There has been a significant structural change in the economy with resources, labour and capital, moving from relatively low productivity sectors into higher productivity industry and services.
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