Project 010 Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment Georgia Institute of Technology and Purdue University Project Lead Investigators Dimitri Mavris (PI) Regents Professor School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Mail Stop 0150 Atlanta, GA 30332-0150 Phone: 404-894-1557 E-mail: dimitri.mavrisatae.gatech.edu William Crossley (PI) Professor School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Purdue University 701 W. Stadium Ave West Lafayette, IN 47907-2045 Phone: 765-496-2872 E-mail: crossleyatpurdue.edu Jimmy Tai (Co-PI) Senior Research Engineer School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Mail Stop 0150 Atlanta, GA 30332-0150 Phone: 404-894-0197 E-mail: jimmy.taiatae.gatech.edu Daniel DeLaurentis (Co-PI) Professor School of Aeronautics and Astronautics Purdue University 701 W. Stadium Ave West Lafayette, IN 47907-2045 Phone: 765-494-0694 E-mail: ddelaureatpurdue.edu University Participants Georgia Institute of Technology • P.I.(s): Dr. Dimitri Mavris (PI), Dr. Jimmy Tai (Co-PI) • FAA Award Numbers: 13-C-AJFE-GIT-006, -012, -022, -031, -041 • Period of Performance: September 1, 2018 to August 31, 2019 • Task(s): 1–5 Purdue University • P.I.(s): Dr. William A. Crossley (PI), Dr. Daniel DeLaurentis (Co-PI), • FAA Award Numbers: 13-C-AJFE-PU-004, -008, -013, -018, -026, -032 • Period of Performance: September 1, 2018 to August 31, 2019 • Task(s): 1, 2, 4, 5 Project Funding Level The project was funded at the following levels: Georgia Institute of Technology ($650,000); Purdue University ($114,185). Cost share details are below: The Georgia Institute of Technology has agreed to a total of $650,000 in matching funds. This total includes salaries for the project director, research engineers, and graduate research assistants, as well as computing, financial, and administrative support, including meeting arrangements. The institute has also agreed to provide tuition remission for the students, paid for by state funds. Purdue University provides matching support through salary support of the faculty PIs and through salary support and tuition and fee waivers for one of the graduate research assistants working on this project. Investigation Team Georgia Institute of Technology • PI: Dimitri Mavris • Co-Investigator: Jimmy Tai (Task 5) • Fleet Modeling Technical Leads: Holger Pfaender and Mohammed Hassan (Tasks 1, 2, 3, 4) • Graduate Students: Thomas Dussage, Taylor Fazzini, Rick Hong, Nikhil Iyengar, Barbara Sampaio, Kevyn Tran, Edan Baltman Purdue University • PI: William Crossley (Tasks 1, 2, 4 and 5) • Co-Investigator: Daniel DeLaurentis (Tasks 1, 2, 4 and 5) • Graduate Students: Samarth Jain, Kolawole Ogunsina, Hsun Chao Project Overview Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Purdue partnered to investigate the future demand for supersonic air travel and the environmental impact of supersonic transports (SSTs). In the context of this research, environmental impacts include direct CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. The research was conducted as a collaborative effort to leverage capabilities and knowledge available from the multiple entities that make up the ASCENT university partners and advisory committee. The primary objective of this research project was to support the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in modeling and assessing the potential future evolution of the next-generation supersonic aircraft fleet. Research under this project consisted of five integrated focus areas: (a) establishing fleet assumptions and performing demand assessment; (b) performing preliminary SST environmental impact prediction; (c) testing the ability of the current Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) to analyze existing supersonic models; (d) performing vehicle and fleet assessments of potential future supersonic aircraft; and (e) modeling SSTs by using an Environmental Design Space (EDS) derivative modeling and simulation environment named Framework for Advanced Supersonic Transport (FASST). To develop suitable assumptions for the fleet-level analysis incorporating new supersonic vehicles, it is necessary to forecast the future demand for supersonic air travel. Georgia Tech followed a two-step approach that first examines historical data to identify current premium demand (business and first class) and then estimates how such demand would scale for supersonic travel. This approach was applied globally. The first step was to develop a supersonic routing tool able to correctly find optimum ground tracks that avoid exposing land to sonic booms, while enabling evaluation of the possible time savings as well as estimation of the increased cost. For the second step, cost data documented by Airlines for America (A4A) were utilized and then scaled to estimate the cost of a supersonic airliner. Together, the two steps provided a better understanding of the potential demand for future commercial supersonic travel from both a passenger and an airline perspective. In an independent but complementary approach to consider demand and routes for supersonic aircraft, the Purdue team developed a ticket pricing model for possible future supersonic aircraft that relies upon current as-offered fares for business class and above, for routes that could have passenger demand for supersonic aircraft. Via an approach considering the size of the potential demand at fares business class and above on a city-pair route, the distance of that city-pair route, an adjustment to allow for the shortest trip time by increasing the overwater distance of the route, and the range capability of a simplistically modeled medium SST (55-passenger capacity) to fly that route, the Purdue team identified 205 potential routes that could see supersonic aircraft service in a network of routes with at least one end in the United States. Of these 205 potential routes, 193 are direct routes, and 12 are routes with fuel stops. By providing these potential routes to the Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET) simulation, the allocation problem in FLEET then determines how many supersonic aircraft would operate on these routes, giving a prediction of which routes would see supersonic aircraft use and the number of supersonic flights operated on those routes at dates in the future. To provide a preliminary estimate for the performance of supersonic vehicles, the Georgia Tech team started by establishing a reference performance for a subsonic vehicle. Quantitative estimates of the impact of supersonic vehicles on the various key environmental indicators (KEIs), especially fuel efficiency, were then derived on the basis of literature review, future performance targets set by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and engineering judgement. For an appropriate estimation, performance parameters such as cruise lift-to-drag (L/D) ratio and engine thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC) values were required. Those values could be determined from preliminary constraint, mission, and utilization analyses conducted on the basis of the vehicle’s design mission requirements. Georgia Tech developed this rapid interactive tool to inform design decisions for vehicles developed in Task 5 and for assessing publicly announced vehicle capabilities. In addition, to facilitate environmental impact prediction for supersonic aircraft, modeling capabilities and potential gaps in existing tools must be identified. Georgia Tech identified existing supersonic aircraft models in the AEDT vehicle database, including the Concorde and some military aircraft. These models were reviewed to determine how they were modeled. The team developed a white paper outlining improvements necessary to accommodate supersonic vehicles in future AEDT versions. One of the accomplishments of the project during the performance period is the preliminary development of the FASST, a modeling and simulation environment based on the architecture of EDS developed specifically for SSTs. Two supersonic vehicles, a business jet and medium SST, have been modeled in the preliminary version of FASST. The business jet SST is designed to carry 8 to 12 passengers for 4,000 nmi cruising at Mach 1.4. The medium SST is designed to carry 55 passengers for 4,500-nmi cruising at Mach 2.2. Currently, the engine design for the business jet SST is a derivative design using the core of a notional CFM56-7B27 engine, and the engine design for the medium SST is a clean sheet design. Georgia Tech and Purdue exercised their respective fleet analysis tools—the Global and Regional Environmental Analysis Tool (GREAT) and Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET)—and produced estimates of the fleet-level impact of a potential fleet of supersonic aircraft operating in the future. The SSTs required for these fleet-level analyses are provided by the vehicle modeling tasks with FASST, a derivative framework from EDS. The outcome of this study provides a glimpse into the future potential state of supersonic air travel by using physics-based models of supersonic vehicle performance. Future work should build on current estimates to conduct more detailed analyses of vehicle and fleet performance. Table of Acronyms and Symbols a T/TSL, installed full-throttle thrust lapse A4A Airlines for America AC Inlet capture area ADP Aerodynamic design point AEDT Aviation Environmental Design Tool ANP Aircraft noise performance AO Reference inlet area APU Auxiliary power unit b W/WTO, ratio of instantaneous weight to takeoff weight or side slip angle BADA Base of Aircraft Data BFFM Boeing Fuel Flow Method BPR