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World Commerce Review ■ Summer 2019 1 Contents WORLD COMMERCE R EVIEW ISSN 1751-0023 VOLUME 13 ISSUE 2 ■ SUMMER 2019 MARIA DEMERTZIS, ANDRÉ ABHIJIT MUKHOPADHYAY SOFIA BALIÑO EXAMINES A SAPIR AND GUNTRAM WOLFF CONSIDERS WHERE INDIA SITS NEW INVESTMENT FACILITATION PRESENT A STRATEGIC AGENDA IN AN ERA OF BILATERAL AND FRAMEWORK IN A TENUOUS FOR THE NEW EU LEADERSHIP PLURILATERAL FTAS WTO LANDSCAPE THE GLOBAL TRADE PLATFORM Traditional, yet innovative. Mastering the right balance. For over 30 years, Global Bank of Commerce, Antigua’s oldest institution providing international fi nancial services, has off ered its clients the perfect balance of world class banking, security and convenience. Antigua is an independent and sovereign jurisdiction since 1981, and is well positioned as a safe haven for the more discriminating investor, who may also qualify to obtain citizenship via a regulated process. Contact us and learn how we can support your fi nancial goals, today and tomorrow. Global Commerce Centre Personal Banking Services Old Parham Road P.O. Box W1803 Wealth Management St. John’s, Antigua, West Indies Citizenship by Investment Programme Tel: (268) 480-2240 Fax: (268) 462-1831 Online Banking email: [email protected] www.globalbankofcommerce.com International Banking Solutions Foreword No time to wait oday’s economic risks and challenges are substantial — a trading system in crisis, slowing global growth, rising financial risks, growing geopolitical tensions, to name a few — they are not at the levels of ten years ago. At least not yet. Since 2008 the United States has switched from promoting multilateralism, cooperation, global rules and global institutions. TMany western countries are political shadows of their former selves. The domestic political strength of the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and many others has been compromised, with a backlash against multilateralism and global cooperation. The global financial crisis demonstrated to the world that many institutions were not fit for purpose, that they may be unable to adapt to the rapid changes in the global economy. Globalisation has led to greater competition. The explosion of advanced technologies now means that knowledge-pools and resources have connected all over the planet, levelling the playing field as never before. There is specifically a fourth revolution of humanity occurring where the people who historically could not be reached are now being reached by technology. This technological disruption is changing how globalisation affects different regions of the globe. It is now time for the institutions of the 20th century to be reformed to meet the challenges of the 21st century. It will require a change in the mindsets of the western elite, who are trying to slow the rate of change by raising non-tariff barriers. They need to look to the future rather than trying to preserve the status quo. There is a chasm between the west (and Europe in particular) and the leapfrog countries from China to India to Kenya to Colombia. The reason the latter countries are leapfrogging Europe and America is that they don’t have economies ingrained in the last century. Meantime, most of the European and American business and regulatory infrastructure was implemented in the 20th century. Bottom-line: where there are vested interests to keep legacy in place, a change to the modern world is unlikely to happen in the near-term. Countries do best when the world comes together to agree collectively on the rules for trade, investment, finance, people-to-people links and dispute resolution and therefore have a paramount self-interest in a strong, effective multilateral organisations. It is time for the economies of China, India, of Africa, of Australasia and a post-Brexit United Kingdom to create and enable a multilateral infrastructure that looks to the future as one of opportunity and human development. Delivering reform will help address the pressing challenges of today. This is not a time to wait. ■ PHOENIX MULTIMEDIA PUBLISHER SALES DIRECTOR ISSN 1751-0023 NR35 1PU Tom Forster David Willocks United Kingdom ©2019 The entire content of this MANAGING EDITOR SALES TEAM publication is protected by copyright, full www.worldcommercereview.com Tom Forster Kate Warwick details of which are available from the John Mayes publisher. All rights reserved. EDITORIAL Email: [email protected] Karen Ferns DESIGN AND PRODUCTION DISCLAIMER Whilst every attempt has been made to ensure that at the time of West Riding Media Solutions printing the magazine the information PRODUCTION herein is accurate and up-to-date, the Michael Day publishers cannot be held responsible for any inaccuracies that may have occurred CIRCULATION within the content of the publication. Andrew Kilby World Commerce Review ■ Summer 2019 1 Contents 6 18 32 A strategic agenda for the new EU leadership 6 Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff present a memo to the presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament, focusing on the most important economic questions at EU level The road to Kazakhstan 18 The WTO is facing heightened pressure from multiple angles. Sofia Baliño finds that members are debating a new investment facilitation framework in a tenuous WTO landscape How to ensure the effective and sustainable financing of international development 24 The world is committed to the development of low-income countries. Christine Lagarde considers the obstacles that must be overcome Avoiding the storm: climate change and the financial system 28 Climate change poses significant risks to the economy and to the financial system, Sarah Breeden asserts, and calls for action today Weaponising ODI 32Nirupama Soundararajan and Dnyanada Palkar examine if India could use overseas direct investment as an economic tool to further its geopolitical goals India at a crossroads 36 The global economy is entering a turbulent phase. Abhijit Mukhopadhyay considers where India sits in an era of bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements Next-generation technologies and the future of trade 41 Susan Lund and Jacques Bughin consider some of the possible effects and estimate the magnitude of potential changes of the future technological transformation Cyber resilience as a global public good 46First principles recognise cyber resilience for what it is, a global public good. Benoît Coeuré considers international cooperation and shares his thoughts on how cooperation can work both from the top down and from the bottom up Personal Information Protection Act 2016 (PIPA) 50 The Bermuda Department of ICT Policy and Innovation review the Personal Information Protection Act 2016 (PIPA) Open banking: threat or opportunity? 52 Redefining banking in a financial services market where your biggest competitor may be Amazon or Google, not a traditional bank, is a real threat to the incumbents. Tiffany Carpenter considers the options Stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and cross-border payments: a new look at the international monetary 54 system Digital currencies are growing rapidly. Tobias Adrian considers the implications and what the future holds for the international monetary system 2 World Commerce Review ■ Summer 2019 Small Pebble, Big Ripple. At only 33 sq. km., Bermuda is a leading offshore insurance/reinsurance market with a proven world class reputation for progressive legislation, robust regulation, and as a centre for innovation. We’re now leveraging our expertise to become the world leader in Fintech. 66 Fintech companies have already incorporated in Bermuda. Is your company next? To learn more, visit fintech.bm 9967 - BermudaThe European FinTech Spring ad.indd Issue 2 Advert and Advertorial_Ad 5.indd 1 25-Feb-1912/14/18 5:39:22 11:31 PM AM Contents 36 46 54 How the blockchain enable the new economy 58 The crypto economy will transfigure business, government and our society, perhaps even more profoundly than the internet did, William Mougayar writes The legal sector is primed for disruption from AI. Here’s why… 62 Nikolas Kairinos outlines a few key snippets of wisdom to help legal organisations and professionals leverage AI to help them do more, do it better, and do it at a lower cost As the globe turns, so does the axle of tax compliance 65It’s important to have a strong working knowledge of the obstacles to tax compliance. Pawel Smolarkiewicz looks at how digital transformation is affecting organisations’ approach The power of ecosystems 68 Richard Straub tracks the growing interest in ecosystems and their profound implications for management education and research and development. Conventions in 2019 showcase business aviation’s exciting future 72The business aviation industry is embracing future technologies. Ed Bolen finds that this forward-looking spirit is embodied in NBAA-sponsored events Corporate Traveller supplement after page 40 4 World Commerce Review ■ Summer 2019 A Red Ensign jurisdiction with a customer focused Flag State administration Pragmatic, helpful and swift customer service to ship and yacht owners, managers and builders Sophisticated on-line systems with electronic certificates and secure digital signatures In-house technical expertise and regulatory oversight during build and in-service Fees - simple annual fee providing cost effective registration, inspection and certification 24/7 response and a growing network of surveyors in key global locations A strategic agenda for the new EU leadership 6 World Commerce Review ■ Summer 2019 Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff present a memo to the presidents
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